# The far Right AfD may win a state government **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 3, 2026, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-far-right-afd-may-win-a-state-government/1032802 "2026-09-03T21:31:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2026, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-far-right-afd-may-win-a-state-government/1032802/121 "2026-09-08T18:50:01Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > So, how preventable was this AfD rise to power, and recent election win? I have opinions on how this came about; I don’t think they are particularly unusual, but if any Germans in the room want to correct or amend, please do so. A lot of this starts with Angela Merkel’s decision to greatly relax immigration restrictions in 2015. No, wait. A lot of this begins when the wall came down, and the East suddenly became “free”. We all saw pictures of the Easterners rejoicing, what you maybe saw less on television was the deep resentment and suspicion based on a long-standing belief that the western Germans saw themselves as superior, a belief that I believe was pretty well rooted in reality. On top of that, the relatively fast reunification exposed a lot of them to the realities of a free market economy. Yes you could go buy a car now, but you had no guaranteed job, and now your job was exposed to competition from guest laborers (often Turks). My recollection is that Bonn/Berlin tried to do some things to soften this, but it felt very slow. Add on top of that limited exposure to the liberal social tradition that emerged from post war German guilt, and you end up with a population deeply tied to labor unions and a transcendent relationship between work and life, but not much fondness for outsiders. Now you can add substantially more open borders, and an already tense east west relationship, and you start to see where things might start swinging quickly right. Add on top of that an endless stream of propaganda about the evils of immigrants in Germany (my German mom often referred to these late in life) and it feels inevitable. So I don’t really know about avoidable, any more than MAGA was avoidable in the US. All of that was probably pretty simplistic, feel free to jump in. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2026, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-far-right-afd-may-win-a-state-government/1032802/122 "2026-09-08T21:52:36Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > The Red-Brown alliance is nearly as old as fascism itself. Virtually all centrists have long regarded nazism and Stalinism as practically Tweedle-Dee and Tweedle-Dum mirror images of each other, equal and opposite versions of something that used to be called “totalitarianism”. The author of “[The Tilted Political Compass](https://everythingstudies.com/2019/03/25/the-tilted-political-compass-part-2-up-and-down/)” who proposed a biaxial version of the political spectrum regarded them both as something he labeled “Spartanism”, that simply arrived at that position by opposite paths in a sort of “infinity equals negative infinity” fashion. Historically Hitler’s and Stalin’s systems retained just enough of their antecedents, primarily economic, to make them incompatible. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2026, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-far-right-afd-may-win-a-state-government/1032802/123 "2026-09-08T21:55:21Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > and adopted the slogan “after Hitler, us”. Well, that DID come to pass; it just took being invaded and conquered by the Soviet Union to do it. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2026, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-far-right-afd-may-win-a-state-government/1032802/124 "2026-09-08T22:12:02Z")
(Missed edit window) ETA: Of course the preceding twelve years were a bit rough; I’ve sometimes wondered where the Soviets found any surviving Communists in Germany to assume control. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2026, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-far-right-afd-may-win-a-state-government/1032802/125 "2026-09-08T23:14:27Z")
The AfD is maybe a special case to some degree, but also not so special. The rise of right wing populism into authoritarianism has been a phenomenon widely across the world. Not just Germany, not just Europe, not just MAGA in the US, not just in South America, not just India … No it has not all occurred in goosestep … I mean lockstep … but still pretty much as a global contagion. And while I don’t think the common thread globally has been immigration, I don’t know what is? Nor what lessons from history to apply to combat it? ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2026, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-far-right-afd-may-win-a-state-government/1032802/126 "2026-09-08T23:38:27Z")
Some selected quotes from the article I linked to above, I would recommend reading either the whole thing or at least everything beginning from “By serendipity I happen to be reading Bertrand Russell’s”: > It makes sense to put them (Spartans) directly opposite liberalism and between left and right because much of their ideology was a direct rejection of liberal principles but has clear points of contact with both leftism and rightism. Fascism as far-rightism is well-trodden ground. They both agree that competition and the cultivation of competence and strength are absolutely essential for the health of society, making them suspicious of anything that sounds weak, whiny or trivial. > With the left they share a distaste for selfishness, instrumentality and the quasi-sociopathic virtuelessness of the market, and agree that it is everyone’s duty think more of the whole than to satisfy their own personal desires. > That leaves an “identity vacuum” in the moderate north-of-center area (of the author’s biaxial graph). That’s no law of nature; I can imagine a world where it wasn’t the case. Any ideology is bad in the extreme, but it _could_ be normal, _theoretically_, to be “fascist-leaning” in the way it’s normal now to be a social democrat with socialist sympathies and not want to seize the means of production and shoot all the kulaks, or to be liberal and not want to privatize roads and the justice system, or to be conservative and not want to be ruled by church and crown. > > But it _is_ the case: there’s no “mild and respectable” version of fascism. > > However, no big settlements doesn’t mean the area close to the center but above it isn’t populated. Oh no. There are plenty of people there, > For leftists and rightists these are separate things, and you worry about one more than the other, but for this quadrant the two are merged into one large sense that the social fabric is deteriorating. > > Near the center it isn’t Sparta by any means, but considerably closer to it than, say, the political center of gravity at your average upper middle class dinner party. > > The Up quadrant is gaining in political power throughout the western world. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2026, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-far-right-afd-may-win-a-state-government/1032802/127 "2026-09-09T16:26:00Z")
Some updates… - the BSW says the AfD went to the CDU first looking for defectors but hasn’t found any - they reiterated for the hundredth time that they want an independent minister president, but specifying that it would _not_ include them, and the Green party said they’d go along with that - they reiterated that they would abstain from a third round of ministerpresident voting, but in a rebuttal to me (effectively) they pointed out that it would result in a 39-39 split, so (if there are no defectors) the AfD still doesn’t get the executive position I guess if I’m the AfD (shudder) I push through the two rounds of voting and then try to find a single party defector. You’d be able to promise him/her a ministerial position, after all. ---
**Author:** ![Guest-starring\_Id](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guest-starring_id/32/21736_2.png) [@Guest-starring\_Id](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guest-starring_Id)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2026, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-far-right-afd-may-win-a-state-government/1032802/128 "2026-09-09T23:45:09Z")
…as Steve Bannon smugly pours himself another triple. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2026, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-far-right-afd-may-win-a-state-government/1032802/129 "2026-09-12T15:35:44Z")
I found this article looking for updates and thought it is worth sharing: > **[The AfD’s Victory in Saxony-Anhalt and the Outlook for German Politics, Trade...](https://www.steptoe.com/en/news-publications/stepwise-risk-outlook/the-afds-victory-in-saxony-anhalt-and-the-outlook-for-german-politics-trade-and-economic-policy.html)** > > The populist right - wing Alternative for Germany ( AfD ) party won regional elections in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, reverberat ing across Germany’s national politics and , by extension , across th... So let’s ignore the outcome from the POV of who controls or fails to have any control of the specific state. It is going to be dysfunctional in any case sounds like, just degrees of screwed. And let’s for a minute ignore the threat of AfD gaining enough votes across the country to win a majority. Merz’s approval rating in Germany is apparently lower than Trump’s is in the United States! And no other leader in CDU in the wings to try to alter the course? So back to those three higher level possibilities. Change of leadership? From that article seems improbable? He drives through real reforms? Seems hard when you are so disliked. The “CDU unravels amid the shockwaves of the state elections. The result would be nothing less than the reshaping of the German party system. This might give rise to a new centre-right movement comprising Christian Democrats, liberal Free Democrats and disillusioned afdvoters, dedicated to reform in areas that matter most to Germans.”? Or what? How do the other parties respond to this further weakening of Merz and the CDU, and a further emboldened AfD? What does an even weaker government in Germany mean for the EU overall as it faces down threats from Trump and Putin both? ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2026, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-far-right-afd-may-win-a-state-government/1032802/130 "2026-09-13T02:49:44Z")
I read this article when you posted it and have been thinking about it, and I think my problem is that it frames the consequences of the election, but not the consequences of those consequences. It’s wallowing in the negative and not giving me an actual ‘outlook’. There is some of that in your questions, and the first thing I’d say is, the next Federal election isn’t until 2029, so this is a long-evolving consequence, and I think some of the dooming in articles like that is a reflection of how deeply unpopular Merz is, and how (almost) everyone sees this as the possible occasion of his removal. And sure, maybe that would be good, but we’ve seen a succession of potential German leaders since Merkel rise to the surface and then sink back down again without capturing the popular imagination, so I don’t know that it will be an improvement, and either way it still feels like an outcome but not a direction. You want a hard consequence? Germany has kind of loomed over the EU since its inception, and that has created a fair amount of resentment in the member countries. It has also been their role to broker compromises, but if Germany is less able to build internal coalitions that drive EU policy, I think France and Poland can do this as well (France is already doing this sometimes). So, maybe that’s good. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2026, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-far-right-afd-may-win-a-state-government/1032802/131 "2026-09-13T03:43:27Z")
> [@Maserschmidt](#): > > I think France and Poland can do this as well … With National Rally on the rise in France, and while not unified _in toto,_ a plurality of voters supporting far right parties in Poland. None of whom are fans of supporting Ukraine and who have some history of being more Russia friendly. So they can, and for now with Macron and Tusk respectively in charge will, but it isn’t a good look? ---
**Author:** ![kk\_fusion](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kk_fusion/32/15276_2.png) [@kk\_fusion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kk_fusion)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2026, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-far-right-afd-may-win-a-state-government/1032802/132 "2026-09-20T17:01:54Z")
Annnd … 37 % neo-nazi in the neighboring state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. That’s not enough to run the state government, but it’s certainly not encouraging either. ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2026, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-far-right-afd-may-win-a-state-government/1032802/133 "2026-09-20T17:22:50Z")
And the CDU only 5.2% by current estimates. Barely over the 5% threshhold after losing 8.1%. And in Berlin? Horrible. Looks like no working or stable majority possible, except die Linke (25.5%) + SPD (12%) + Greens (15.4%) = 75 seats, 66 necessary for the majority, or CDU (20%) + SPD (12%) + Greens (15.4%) = 67 seats. Good luck herding those cats! Looks like Weimar, with only a slight exageration. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2026, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-far-right-afd-may-win-a-state-government/1032802/134 "2026-09-21T01:55:36Z")
> [@Pardel-Lux](#): > > And the CDU only 5.2% by current estimates. Maybe worse: > For Merz’s CDU, the result was a historic humiliation. The party won just 4.9% and is set to be ejected from the state parliament after recording its worst result in any state election. > > Merz called the outcome a “disaster” but said he would remain chancellor and press ahead with his reform agenda. > **[AfD wins Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania as Berlin swings left | Euractiv](https://www.euractiv.com/news/afd-edges-spd-in-meckpomm-as-berlin-swings-left/)** > > Merz’s CDU set to crash out of north-east state parliament after its worst result in any German election since 1945 ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2026, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-far-right-afd-may-win-a-state-government/1032802/135 "2026-09-21T02:51:15Z")
Just back from vacation and seeing this. Not surprising, but still depressing. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2026, 6:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-far-right-afd-may-win-a-state-government/1032802/136 "2026-09-21T06:50:45Z")
Thankfully a coalition looks possible in both places this time. The CDU falling out of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern might be a blessing in disguise since from what I’ve read they didn’t want to form a government with Die Linke, and their redistributed seats were needed to get the rest of the non-AfD parties above 50%. If they limped across the 5% line, then it would have been an open question about if a grand coalition could be made or not. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2026, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-far-right-afd-may-win-a-state-government/1032802/137 "2026-09-22T00:32:43Z")
> [@Maserschmidt](#): > > > [@Pardel-Lux](#): > > > > Yes, please! Can you do it for Berlin _Bezirk_ by _Bezirk_? I hope we can offer more diversity that Sax-An’t. > > I can! I’ll be traveling the 20th but will look at it when I come back. I might even do it by Briefwahlbezirk, just for the fun of it. More diversity, and hey, Die Linke coming through! [![](https://i.imgur.com/Ja3VZwR.png) ](https://i.imgur.com/Ja3VZwR.png) [![](https://i.imgur.com/RHiRDTW.png) ](https://i.imgur.com/RHiRDTW.png) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2026, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-far-right-afd-may-win-a-state-government/1032802/138 "2026-09-22T02:16:35Z")
Any discussion in local German media about how to handle the rise? Just more of the same? ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2026, 7:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-far-right-afd-may-win-a-state-government/1032802/139 "2026-09-22T07:47:49Z")
Thank you very much! Those are interesting combinations of most voted and runner-up parties. Also interesting how much of the old East-West divide is still there. > [@DSeid](#): > > Any discussion in local German media A lot, as you can imagine. With opinions for everyone. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2026, 12:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-far-right-afd-may-win-a-state-government/1032802/140 "2026-09-22T12:24:36Z")
Of the many opinions which do you share is the best strategy moving forward? Which do you think will actually happen? How do you think it will work? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-far-right-afd-may-win-a-state-government/1032802.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-far-right-afd-may-win-a-state-government/1032802.md?page=8)