I always thought that if Musk could just control himself, he could have been the second coming of Steven Jobs.
And Steven Jobs was widely admired. Widely scorned as well, but much less than Musk is now.
I always thought that if Musk could just control himself, he could have been the second coming of Steven Jobs.
And Steven Jobs was widely admired. Widely scorned as well, but much less than Musk is now.
you might wanna read up on net-profit per vehicle sold - and now it is clear why tesla has this (still overblown) market cap:
now imagine (holding everything else constant) - the prices of EV coming down $3k … and see who is in trouble and who isnt …
In short:
there is NO way, traditional car makers can get into the position where TESLA is today … and that is reflected in their market value!
A big part of Tesla’s profitability per vehicle comes from selling a product they don’t have and an advantage that may last forever.
FSD plays a big part of their profits, and let’s be honest, FSD isn’t coming to customers that bought at it (for $15,000) any time soon if at all.
The profit per vehicle for traditional car makers is as good or better when you factor in dealerships. Tesla is currently not required to use car dealerships as other car makers are, but that’s not going to last forever.
thx - good read …
a few thoughts: the article is extremely US-centric (prob. been written by a US-journalist) … I am not sure that there are countries outside the USA that require you to buy a car from a dealership …
there is a business that sells cars, and consumers that buy cars … if they agree, they can make a deal at their leisure (just like buying shoes or bycicles) … IIRC, in europe you can nowadays import your car as an individual person.
Tesla could easily set up Tesla-Dealerships ™ where this is required… and have one car standing there in the remotest place of wyoming with a courtesy phone … whilst still maintaining their business model. More realistically, they might tie it into their supercharger network.
Tesla’s current P/E ratio simply isn’t sustainable. FSD won’t work without changes to road infrastructure (and probably driving laws), and the Cybertruck won’t be the success they hoped with other trucks already on the market - the concept had the field to itself.
And that latter point tells the tale: Tesla got a huge lead on the EV market, but traditional manufacturers are catching up and have significant advantages. The EV market is 14% of the market and Tesla has half that. As the market expands, they will be left behind in volume due to various issues with quality, market reach, production and support. I see them taking a position similar to Porsche in the market - a niche brand with loyal supporters and record profit margins. I’m not looking to sell my shares now, but I see the day approaching…
Another advantage they have is they haven’t spent much money on new models or redesigning any of their four existing designs. How long will people accept the same old designs with the limited amount of features?
you forget “batteries” … which are about possibly of higher strategic relevance than the “vehicle” as such … (which will become evermore commoditized, being basically a chasis, e-motors and a control-unit)
and no other competitor is so vertically integrated with batteries (and incl. mining operations) as tesla is …
aprox. half of the cost of an EV is batteries - there is a world of a difference if you design/drive innovation/own the largest battery factories / and are the leading edge … or if you have to go out and buy batteries from companies that make profits and sell the same product to all your competitors as well.
there is a reason why apple and google started making their own SOC for celulars … tailored to your needs components vs. off-the-shelf-snapdragons