Fair enough. Let me run with that for awhile.
I would make a quick passing note, however, that some people (including me, if I was in a different mood) would immediately retort that you are on The Road To Serfdom. That is, your argument that the government needs to get involved in testing is because the government is already involved in healthcare.
Or stated in other terms, because the government is involved it must get even more involved.
But I’ll let that pass for now. Let’s dive into the self-interested part of your argument and attempt to throw some numbers around.
I’m going to temporarily accept your argument that the public will bear the full costs of the deaths caused by drugs that are not tested, and were chosen by unwitting customers.
Let’s begin.
There are costs associated with the FDA. They are
C1. The direct costs associated with it’s existence
C2. The costs required by companies to comply with its laws
C3. The costs of preventable deaths (and maybe more importantly, the ‘cost of suffering’) from drugs it doesn’t allow to market, or doesn’t allow to market fast enough
I think C1 is about $2 billion per year, if my memory is correct. C2 is much, much bigger…probably an order-of-magnitude bigger. I’m not sure how much. I have no idea what C3 is, because it isn’t measured. It’s the important box that so many people miss…Box 3 of the 2x2 matrix of
- FDA Approved/Will Save You
- FDA Approved/Will Kill You
- Disapproved/Will Save You
- Disapproved/Will Kill You
Most people just focus on Boxes 1 and 4. Box 1 is what the drug companies want. Box 4 is the thalidomide example. The FDA is extremely risk-averse and shoots for Box 2 to be as close to zero as possible.
But Box 3 is a very important box. That’s the box that the free market could open up to those who wish to choose it.
I would argue that C3 is at least as big as C2. Maybe bigger. Adding all three costs together C1 + C2 + C3 is probably many $10s of billions of dollars per year. That’s just an order of magnitude guesstimate. Please poke holes in my hypothesis if you would like to do so.
The self-interested costs you are trying to avoid are the costs of people getting sick and dying. Fair enough.
But data on sick and dying people from suspect drugs spreads very rapidly. Especially in today’s wired society. It strikes me as highly unlikely that many 100s, much less 1,000s, of people would start dying from certain drugs before we would all know about it in short order.
It’s a self-correcting mechanism. Sam cited 107 deaths from a certain drug many decades ago, when information traveled much slower. That strikes me as a high-end benchmark. Can you imagine 107 children dying from suspect drugs in the 2009 and not having it on CNN almost immediately? How long did it take to hear about that Chinese toothpaste thing? That news spread like wildfire.
You would have to believe that people would be dropping dead all over the place, in huge numbers, and that customers would plow ahead and continue to buy suspect drugs to start running up hospital bills that even approach the C1 + C2 + C3 costs outlined above. We’re talking $10s of billions of dollars here.
To be fair, I haven’t subtracted off the costs of the new, free market testing from the C1 + C2 + C3 amount. That is, the costs to the consumer from the new entrants into the testing space that replace some of the FDA functions. But they are almost certain to be <= C1, and <=C2, otherwise the drug companies wouldn’t use them. Even after making that correction you’re still stuck with an order of magnitude in the $10s of billions that ‘the cost of dying’ has to match in order for it to be a poor cost-benefit tradeoff.
Please suggest modifications to my analysis as you see fit.