# The first presidential debate: 10/3/2012 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 3, 2012, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-first-presidential-debate-10-3-2012/636602 "2012-10-03T17:16:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 25
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2012, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-first-presidential-debate-10-3-2012/636602/481 "2012-10-04T19:31:51Z")
> [@Sinaptics](#): > > What I’m wondering about is with the exception of jtgain, none of you Romney supporters even care that he wildly changed his positions again. Does that not matter to you at all? Has it ever mattered to them? ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2012, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-first-presidential-debate-10-3-2012/636602/482 "2012-10-04T19:36:37Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > He’s the GOP candidate now. They would vote for him if he french-kissed Fidel Castro. He’s been the candidate for a while now. Previous moves toward the center were greeted with shrill [alarm](http://www.businessinsider.com/rush-limbaugh-andrea-saul-romneycare-romney-obama-election-2012-8). So what’s different now? Relatedly, the conventional wisdom was that Romney had not yet tacked to the center because (1) he was afraid of reinforcing the flip-flopper narrative and (2) he was more beholden to the right-wing than the typical candidate because of the nature of the election. Was that wisdom wrong? ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2012, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-first-presidential-debate-10-3-2012/636602/483 "2012-10-04T19:47:00Z")
I think the simplest explanation is that Republicans are terrified of losing after the last couple of weeks and are prepared to give Romney a lot more leeway. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2012, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-first-presidential-debate-10-3-2012/636602/484 "2012-10-04T19:49:14Z")
Could it be that blowhards such as Limbaugh and Coulter know Romney doesn’t have a chance unless he moves more to the center, so they’re keeping their traps shut? ETA: Wait a minute though. I take that back. It’s only a day later. We’ll see. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2012, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-first-presidential-debate-10-3-2012/636602/485 "2012-10-04T19:57:37Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > I think the simplest explanation is that Republicans are terrified of losing after the last couple of weeks and are prepared to give Romney a lot more leeway. Yeah, I think that’s probably right. If so, it was very shrewd of Romney to seize that moment. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2012, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-first-presidential-debate-10-3-2012/636602/486 "2012-10-04T20:02:02Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > It felt like Obama was trying to run out the clock on the election. I just hope he isn’t taking a knee in the third quarter. he does realize its just past halftime right? Actually, it is pretty much in the 4th quarter, as this Nate Silver post from a week and a half ago points out: > [@](#): > > What did the polling look like at this stage in past elections, and how did it compare against the actual results? > > First, the polling by this time in the cycle has been reasonably good, especially when it comes to calling the winners and losers in the race. Of the 19 candidates who led in the polls at this stage since 1936, 18 won the popular vote (Thomas E. Dewey in 1948 is the exception), and 17 won the Electoral College (Al Gore lost it in 2000, along with Mr. Dewey). > > If you eliminate the candidates with double-digit leads, the front-runner’s record is eight Electoral College wins in 10 tries, or a batting average of 80 percent. > > The second theme is one that we’ve brought up before. There has not been any tendency, at least at this stage of the race, for the contest to break toward the challenging candidate. > > The next point is that large changes can occur late in the race, or at least large errors in the polling. There were four years (1936, 1948, 1968 and 1972) in which the actual election result diverged by at least 10 points from the late September polls, and several other years (like 1980) when there was a shift in the mid-to-high single digits. Of these years, only 1948 reversed the winner — but there were also a lot of close calls. > > But these late changes in the polls seem to be becoming less frequent. Since 1972, the average change between the late September polls and the election result is 4.9 percentage points in one direction or another, versus an average error of 7.1 percentage points between 1936 and 1968. And the shifts have been smaller still, 3.7 percentage points on average, in the five elections since 1992. > > (T)here should also be little doubt that Americans are tuning into the presidential race earlier, and that they are becoming more partisan, two trends that lock them into their candidate choices sooner and reduce late-stage volatility. > > Next, and related, there are few undecided voters this year… Thus, although a shift of several percentage points in Mr. Romney’s favor is far from impossible, or even all that unlikely, this also looks like a year in which volatility in the polls might be lower than average. > > [Five Thirty Eight](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/24/the-statistical-state-of-the-presidential-race/) ---
**Author:** ![A\_nice\_guy\_with\_an\_opinion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/76d3ee/32.png) [@A\_nice\_guy\_with\_an\_opinion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/A_nice_guy_with_an_opinion)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2012, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-first-presidential-debate-10-3-2012/636602/487 "2012-10-04T20:04:55Z")
> [@Sinaptics](#): > > What I’m wondering about is with the exception of jtgain, none of you Romney supporters even care that he wildly changed his positions again. Does that not matter to you at all? Romney’s position is… “evolving” Heh. ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2012, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-first-presidential-debate-10-3-2012/636602/488 "2012-10-04T20:05:26Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > He’s been the candidate for a while now. Previous moves toward the center were greeted with shrill [alarm](http://www.businessinsider.com/rush-limbaugh-andrea-saul-romneycare-romney-obama-election-2012-8). So what’s different now? Conservative pundits haven’t exactly been lovey dovey with Romney here lately. They surprised me by pointing out Ryan’s untruthfulness, they distanced themselves from Romney when he tried to exploit Libya, and when the 47% crap happened, folks like Scarborough and David Brooks took a very critical stand against him. So to expect them to go continue this unprecedented streak of criticism, even after he’s done the Party proud for once by being crowned the debate winner, is probably asking too much. Quietly they are probably burning, though. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2012, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-first-presidential-debate-10-3-2012/636602/489 "2012-10-04T20:12:56Z")
> [@you\_with\_the\_face](#): > > All Obama has to do next go round is tighten up his argumentation, remind us about some of Romney’s key embarrassments, and keep putting Romney on the defensive about his Medicare plans (voucher, voucher, voucher), and he will be okay. Next debate is foreign policy. Expect some round-for-round on China, obviously Iran, Israel, Libya… maybe Mexico if they have time for it. This is why I said the 47% thing was a wasted opportunity. The third debate is “social policy” but we’ll be a couple weeks off from last night by that time. I guess Biden will bring it up but it’ll have less impact as a grenade against Romney’s running mate versus Romney himself. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2012, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-first-presidential-debate-10-3-2012/636602/490 "2012-10-04T20:14:59Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Yeah, I think that’s probably right. If so, it was very shrewd of Romney to seize that moment. ``` Well in terms of keeping his base happy, yes. In terms of crafting a coherent message for the general election not so much. Obama is already going hard at Romney as a faker. If Romney had prepared the ground for the last few months that would be much harder to do. It's one thing to pivot soon after winning the nomination when most people aren't paying attention. It's another thing altogether to pivot a month before the election. ``` ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2012, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-first-presidential-debate-10-3-2012/636602/491 "2012-10-04T20:17:14Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > This is why I said the 47% thing was a wasted opportunity. The third debate is “social policy” but we’ll be a couple weeks off from last night by that time. I guess Biden will bring it up but it’ll have less impact as a grenade against Romney’s running mate versus Romney himself. I think the last debate will be the \*best \*time for Obama to get into it, if he thinks he needs to go on offense. That one will be freshest in people’s minds on Election Day, and this one will be pretty much forgotten. ---
**Author:** ![gamerunknown](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/6bbea6/32.png) [@gamerunknown](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gamerunknown)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2012, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-first-presidential-debate-10-3-2012/636602/492 "2012-10-04T20:22:39Z")
Hey, maybe the chair would do a better job? ---
**Author:** ![A\_nice\_guy\_with\_an\_opinion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/76d3ee/32.png) [@A\_nice\_guy\_with\_an\_opinion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/A_nice_guy_with_an_opinion)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2012, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-first-presidential-debate-10-3-2012/636602/493 "2012-10-04T20:26:05Z")
I don’t understand why Obammy didn’t bang his chest over the “Shovel Ready” jobs. ---
**Author:** ![DoctorJ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/doctorj/32/2904_2.png) [@DoctorJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DoctorJ)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2012, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-first-presidential-debate-10-3-2012/636602/494 "2012-10-04T20:29:30Z")
The media _really_ wanted to give this one to Romney, because for all the talk of liberal bias the real media bias is toward the story, and a horse race is way more interesting than runaway in early October. So anything less than a crushing Obama victory was going to be played as a mixed bag, a tie would have been played as a win for Romney, and a modest Romney victory (which is what it was) was going to be turned into a spanking. I think that’s why Obama was holding back. Better to let that play out now than later–just take it easy now and don’t screw up by coming off as arrogant or dismissive. As a student of “sport”, as Romney might put it, the President is familiar with the rope-a-dope. I’m afraid it might not have worked here, though, because he let some pretty egregious bullshit go unchallenged and the media response has been pretty harsh. He has given up more momentum than he probably intended to. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2012, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-first-presidential-debate-10-3-2012/636602/495 "2012-10-04T20:34:07Z")
> [@DoctorJ](#): > > I think that’s why Obama was holding back. Well, if that helps you sleep at night. Last night was just evidence of what we conservatives have long since known. Obama is great with a teleprompter and when he’s being thrown lobs, but sit in in a room without a teleprompter and hit him with tough questions and he collapses like a straw stair under the weight of an elephant. Or put another way… “Ugh, ummm, ummmm, ah, well Boosh…” ---
**Author:** ![cmyk](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cmyk/32/3353_2.png) [@cmyk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmyk)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2012, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-first-presidential-debate-10-3-2012/636602/496 "2012-10-04T20:39:08Z")
> [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](#): > > Mitt has always been a severe centrist. No, no, your thinking of Mitt Romney #4. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2012, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-first-presidential-debate-10-3-2012/636602/497 "2012-10-04T20:41:28Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Obama is great with a teleprompter and when he’s being thrown lobs, but sit in in a room without a teleprompter and hit him with tough questions and he collapses like a straw stair under the weight of an elephant. Or put another way… > > “Ugh, ummm, ummmm, ah, well Boosh…” “Ugh, ummm, ummmm, ah, well Teleprompter…” :rolleyes: The thing is that Obama tried to treat Americans like an adult. Replies like yours are the reason why this was a bad strategy - as David Axelrod admitted: > [@](#): > > “He made a choice last night to answer the questions that were asked and to talk to the American people about what we need to move forward, and not to get into serial fact-checking with Gov. Romney, which can be an exhausting, never-ending pursuit,” Axelrod said. “Obviously, moving forward, we are going to take a hard look at this, and we are going to have to make some judgments about where to draw the lines in these debates and how to use our time.” > > [Politico](http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82037.html#ixzz28MgYwhIz) Was it a bad strategy? Apparently. Did it work? No. Do you not think that he will change things up in the next debates? Do you really think this puts the election in the win category for Romney? Really? Obama supporters are realistic enough to realize that was not a good debate for Obama. Romney supporters apparently are not realistic enough to see what that really means, which is why they trot out “teleprompter” garbage. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2012, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-first-presidential-debate-10-3-2012/636602/498 "2012-10-04T20:46:05Z")
[Obama approval rating at highest level since 2009](http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-approval-rating-gallup-debate-romney-2012-10?nr_email_referer=1&utm_source=Triggermail&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Business%20Insider%20Select&utm_campaign=Business%20Insider%20Select%202012-10-04) ---
**Author:** ![Dob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b2d939/32.png) [@Dob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dob)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2012, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-first-presidential-debate-10-3-2012/636602/499 "2012-10-04T20:52:53Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > [Obama approval rating at highest level since 2009](http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-approval-rating-gallup-debate-romney-2012-10?nr_email_referer=1&utm_source=Triggermail&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Business%20Insider%20Select&utm_campaign=Business%20Insider%20Select%202012-10-04) Either this doesn’t take into effect the full debate impact… or the “winner” of last nights debate isn’t who everything thinks it is. Bottom line.. politics, like quantum physics, makes my head hurt. Me go sleep. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2012, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-first-presidential-debate-10-3-2012/636602/500 "2012-10-04T20:55:28Z")
The polling was done before the debate, but I can’t imagine a sub-par debate performance would impact whether people approve or disapprove of his job performance as president. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-first-presidential-debate-10-3-2012/636602.md?page=24) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-first-presidential-debate-10-3-2012/636602.md?page=26)