The first presidential debate: 10/3/2012

You know, I thought of that myself, but I’m trying to keep away from overthinking things, or giving the president too much credit for thinking several moves ahead. Those sort of things make for good movie or novel plots, but in real life, I think people simply worry about winning, and don’t try to get too cute while doing it.

I’d be happy if things work out that way, but I’m not at all convinced that was the intention.

McCain was cranky, and besides, the threshold Obama had to meet as a challenger was to seem like a plausible President. He did that.

This time around, he has to make Mitt Romney seem implausible as a President. The fact that Romney cleaned his clock is going to hurt. But I get his strategy, he’s doing the prevent defense thing. Don’t give up the big play. And he didn’t. Romney advanced the ball from his own 20 to his own 40 yard line. A nice gain with plenty of time still left to play, but not nearly enough to make victory likely.

To win, Romney needs to do well in the next two debates and find a closing message, then win the turnout battle.

I’ve never heard a story about Romney helping a “random person”. I did hear a rather specious story about him helping track down a co-worker’s (co-owner’s?) daughter after she disappeared and OD’ed.

That’s a good point. The CNN response tracker pretty much flatlined during Romney’s close, though it was higher during most of the actual debate.

Me too. Democrats used to be proud of helping the poor. It was their one redeeming quality in my view. Of course, it was a losing quality, so I could be biased. The Democrats can’t win without at least breaking even among middle class voters. There just aren’t enough poor people.

Style

Obama should have gulped down a couple of espressos and been more fired up. He was too mellow.
Romney was aggressive, agitated, and, at times, a little confused.
Substance

Obama was plausible.
Fact checkers will find Romney’s plans and proposals to be science fiction.

Verdict

A small positive bump for Romney but not enough to win.

Gillespie recalled how Romney called her every night, for 10 straight nights, when her father was in a coma after heart surgery.

And she told one more story. The day she moved to Massachusetts, the moving company didn’t get all her furniture inside the house. The governor called and asked her how things were going. She said furniture was still on the driveway.

“I’ll get the boys,” Romney told her.

At 9 p.m., Romney and his sons moved the furniture into the house.

Meanwhile, Obama can’t even work up compassion for his own brother:

Even better example. The President has never called the family of Brian Terry. He did however, take the time to call Sandra Fluke.

There was so much hope for an Obama administration back then though, he doesn’t have that behind him this time around. Some percentage of people who voted him into office are now disappointed with his performance and hoping for an alternative. I’m one of those people and he’s going to have to do something to convince me to vote for him again. Tonight was a good chance for him to do that and he dropped the ball.

[QUOTE=Chefguy]
Romney came across as smug and a bit arrogant; Obama came across as a bit tentative and tired (not surprising considering today’s news from the Middle East). There was no trouncing by either, despite wishful comments up thread.
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Just in:CNN after debate poll amongst registered voters 67/26 Mitt wins.

Obama needs to go on the offensive

I totally screwed up this link.

http://www.theonion.com/articles/nations-lower-class-at-least-grateful-it-not-part,28999/

Obama needs to hammer home Romneys magical tax plan. You can’t criticize it, because he won’t tell us what it is. His excuse is that he doesn’t want to go into negotiations with something, but that’s bs. I think it’s because Obama’s narrative is right. Romneys numbers won’t work with drastic cuts. By Romneys narrative, he can make up whatever result he wants.

I don’t think his employees count as “random people”. Anyway, do you really think Obama has never helped someone move?

It’s not really that bad. It’s true Romney’s numbers don’t add up, but tax reform is primarily na issue for Congress to decide. Obama’s numbers in his health care plan didn’t add up. They didn’t even exist! He rightly noted that Congress would have to work out the details. It is sufficient to know that Romney wants to cut deductions and tax rates. And he wants to do it without reducing revenue or raising taxes on the middle class. that means a lot less rate reduction than he wants, but it doesn’t mean his plan is completely useless.

Don’t get me wrong, I am absolutely under NO illusion that Barak Obama is a particularly nice guy or any more likely to sincerely, honestly care about his fellow man than any random person walking down a crowded Chicago street, and in fact I think he’s probably at heart a shrewd self-promoter who has always been pretty good at looking out for himself and not worrying about the people around him, but Mitt Romney wouldn’t stop his mollyfocking limousine to piss on a little old lady burning to death unless there was something substantial in it for him, and the average American can sense that about him…

I haven’t even heard of the guy helping an old lady across the street. Nor is he big on donating to charity.

He just seems like the “only care about people in groups of a million or more” type of guy.

Romney “won” the debate on points, but this is an election campaign not a debating contest. The debates are about presenting yourself as a person and developing broader themes for the campaign. I don’t think Romney did a particularly good job at either. Yes he was forceful and well-prepared but he came across like an over-eager schoolboy always looking to get the last word. His body language verged on the manic at times and reminded me of Al Gore in the 2000 debates. Obama was a bit tentative but on the whole looked sober and thoughtful.

I also don’t get the sense that Romney developed any themes that he can push through for the next month. If anything, the only theme likely to emerge from the debate is Romney’s “secret plans”. Expect the Obama campaign to push hard on this in the next few days.

You understand that you not hearing about things doesn’t mean they didn’t happen, right? Anyway, Obama gave a fifth of his income to charity last year. What’s “big” to you?

[QUOTE=MPB in Salt Lake]
Don’t get me wrong, I am absolutely under NO illusion that Barak Obama is…
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Is this misspelling some meme I missed?

I have the debate as a tie, but I’m glad Obama didn’t get into a battle of one liners with Romney. This debate was so boring, I doubt there is much that anyone outside of a political junkie will take away from it.

Obama managed to keep himself out of the Leno and Letterman monologues. There is no,“What about Poland? You forgot Poland.” or anything else from this debate that will be remembered by the weekend.

I am wondering if Candy Crowley will take control and smack em down on the next one.

Lehrer clearly had no control. Go Candy…

dalej42: That’s a good point, actually. I read that a snap poll showed that Mitt Romney’s favorables (especially in empathy) went up a lot after this debate.

The question is, how long will that last? Visceral reactions like that are powerful, but they can also be short lived. Or they can really stick with you.

Which is it this time?

I think Romney did a great job tonight. Romney knew his facts inside and out and spoke eloquently and without hesitation. Obama didn’t speak well and seemed somehow disinterested or annoyed. Of course if I had to compete to keep my job I would be annoyed too.

What possible Romney voters have to decide is if they agree with what he said, whether he means what he said, and if he can keep being the Romney he was tonight. Some candidates I start to doubt whether they really want the job, but Romney really wanted the job tonight.