# The five billion dollar wall **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 21, 2018, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-five-billion-dollar-wall/826495 "2018-12-21T15:50:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 23
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-five-billion-dollar-wall/826495/441 "2019-01-14T22:57:35Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > [source](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trump-calls-congress-secure-borders-protect-american-people/) Ah, still citing a chronic liar, I see. > [@BobLibDem](#): > > If it was such a big fucking deal, it would have been done when Republicans held both houses, though the filibuster still would have been an issue. But it wasn’t a big deal until Donnie Two Scoops had to divert attention from his treason. Hence the crisis. Of all the reasons this is whole conversation is so infuriatingly stupid, this is probably #1. If Trump cared about the wall, he had full control of the government for 2 years. He chose _now_ as the time to throw a hissyfit over it? _It is not actually about the wall_. It was _never_ actually about the wall. It’s about _picking a fight_. Trump wants a big flashy fight, because that’s basically all he’s good at. Except this time it’s so transparent, stupid, and harmful that the vast majority of people aren’t buying it. Again, pass a clean continuing resolution and bring the democrats to the table by actually offering something they want in return. Don’t just hold the functionality of the government hostage if they don’t give into your demands. A bit of game theory. **Ditka** , **Magellan** , let’s say the dems give Trump the wall funding to end the shutdown. What happens next time the democrats decide that they don’t want to pass a bill the republicans want? What, exactly, stops Trump from pulling the _exact same shit again_? This is why we don’t negotiate with terrorists. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-five-billion-dollar-wall/826495/442 "2019-01-14T23:01:43Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > There was some decline from it’s peak, but a recent resurgence. I wouldn’t describe it as “there’s no crisis” so much as “some wall helped ease the crisis, and some more wall might help ease it even more.” > I’m not sure if you were just trying to make a joke, or if this was intended as a factual claim. If it’s the former, disregard I guess. If it’s the latter, cite? [Here.](http://www.crfb.org/blogs/us-spends-80-billion-year-incarceration) Figures from 2010, article written in 2015. > [@](#): > > Of the $80 billion spent on supervision, confinement, and rehabilitation for those convicted and accused, only 10 percent came from the federal government. The majority (57 percent) of the funds were spent by state governments, while the remaining 33 percent came from local governments. **The report’s total of $80 billion is in 2010 dollars, which is $87 billion in today’s dollars.** I find it doubtful there’s enough business owners willing to go to jail to add up to over 5 billion. ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-five-billion-dollar-wall/826495/443 "2019-01-14T23:05:43Z")
> [@Airbeck](#): > > Haha no it isn’t. Read the polls. > > Just because you assert something does not make it so. I know you think it works for Trump so why not do the same thing, but it does’t actually work for Trump except with the true believers who will believe anything that comes out of his mouth as if it was gospel. He owns this in ever poll by a large margin. Your side is losing very badly on this issue. But by all means please proceed if you think its doing you any favors. Are those the same polls that showed the Trump was going to lose the election by a landslide? There are polls, then there is [reality.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G87UXIH8Lzo) ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-five-billion-dollar-wall/826495/444 "2019-01-14T23:08:37Z")
> [@Ruken](#): > > Yes need. The previous fence was expressive, built only where BP thought it would have the highest impact and only where necessary, and was nonetheless of questionable efficacy. You want a wall? Then show us the numbers that prove it’s worth the price What are you talking about? The existing barriers were built where the border patrol thought they would do the most good. Same for the additional 240 mile the the $5 billion is for. ---
**Author:** ![Ruken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f475e1/32.png) [@Ruken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruken)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-five-billion-dollar-wall/826495/445 "2019-01-14T23:08:56Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Why do you say it was “of questionable efficacy”? The Secure Fence Act was passed in 2006. According to [the NYT,](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/20/us/politics/fact-check-trump-border-crossings-declining-.html) the number of border crossings has declined significantly since then. In babby’s first science and social science classes we learn about cause and effect. The bulk of the funding was appropriated in 2007. Meanwhile, apprehensions along the SW border had already fallen from 1.64 million in 2000 to 0.86 million without extensive fencing. Then the recession hit, which is to blame for the bulk of the decrease over the next few years. It’s not like there isn’t already literature on this: > **[w25267.pdf](https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w25267/w25267.pdf)** > > 1734.23 KB > [@](#): > > Our estimated elasticity implies the direct impact of the Secure Fence Act was to reduce Mexico-to-U.S. migration by 0.8%. > […] > We estimate that the total impact of the border wall expansion was to reduce the (long-run) number of Mexican workers residing in the United States by 82,600 workers, a decline of approximately 0.6% Most of the meager impact seems to have been in high-traffic areas, e.g. in border cities, which were already 60% fenced by then. I remember when they added fencing in El Paso. People used to walk across the river (doesn’t have water in it most of the year), drop something big in the road (Paisano Dr.), and hold up cars that stopped. Hell maybe that only happened once but people sure talked about it a lot. But out in bumblefuck? Which is most of the border. Meh. So yes, questionable efficacy. ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-five-billion-dollar-wall/826495/446 "2019-01-14T23:11:04Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > I think their hatred for Trump is related to their love of country. I know that’s true in my case. The wall is stupid, but in the larger picture, it’s unimportant. Dealing Trump a severe and embarrassing loss (due primarily to his lack of political skills) may help bring about his downfall in some small way. That effort is vital for those of us who love America. The border patrol disagrees with your assessment of the barriers at the border. Why should I go with your assessment over theirs? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-five-billion-dollar-wall/826495/447 "2019-01-14T23:11:38Z")
> [@magellan01](#): > > Are those the same polls that showed the Trump was going to lose the election by a landslide? There are polls, then there is [reality.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G87UXIH8Lzo) There were no such polls, or at least no such polls tracked by those who are good at it (i.e. Nate Silver and his team). Nate Silver and his team believed that Trump had a very significant chance to win, based on the polling, even if they thought it was slightly more likely that Hillary would win. That’s what the polling said, and it was very, very slightly off. About the same magnitude as it was off in 2012, except that in that case it was off in the other direction (i.e. predicting a small Obama win when it was actually a large Obama win). ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-five-billion-dollar-wall/826495/448 "2019-01-14T23:12:49Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > No idea what you’re talking about or who you’re responding to. Did someone else talk about “the people who know”? I sure didn’t. In any case, Trump is not negotiating – he’s just making a demand and offering nothing in return. You. Not in this thread. But you do so repeatedly. Want to know what to think about climate? Listen to the experts. Want to know about any issue concerning black people, listen to black people. You deny this? ---
**Author:** ![andros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e480ec/32.png) [@andros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/andros)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-five-billion-dollar-wall/826495/449 "2019-01-14T23:12:51Z")
> [@magellan01](#): > > Are those the same polls that showed the Trump was going to lose the election by a landslide? Nope. Entirely different polls. ---
**Author:** ![Ruken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f475e1/32.png) [@Ruken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruken)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-five-billion-dollar-wall/826495/450 "2019-01-14T23:15:55Z")
> [@magellan01](#): > > The border patrol disagrees with your assessment of the barriers at the border. Why should I go with your assessment over theirs? Then let’s see their cost benefit analysis. ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-five-billion-dollar-wall/826495/451 "2019-01-14T23:17:40Z")
> [@Ruken](#): > > Then let’s see their cost benefit analysis. Sure. 'm sure you’ll be able to find it via google someplace. ---
**Author:** ![Ruken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f475e1/32.png) [@Ruken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruken)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-five-billion-dollar-wall/826495/452 "2019-01-14T23:22:51Z")
> [@magellan01](#): > > Sure. 'm sure you’ll be able to find it via google someplace. So now we know you’ve got zero quantitative analysis to justify this boondoggle. ---
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-five-billion-dollar-wall/826495/453 "2019-01-14T23:24:27Z")
You’re the one asking for 5.7 billion of our tax dollars, you’ll have to do better than “I dunno google it”. All this is about is Trump is mad he lost the House, so he took his ball and went home, and he is refusing to cooperate out of pique. That’s it. He’s trying to find a way to force the House to bend to his will so that he can keep making them bend to his will. That’s why they can’t just give the baby what he’s screaming for. ---
**Author:** ![Ruken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f475e1/32.png) [@Ruken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruken)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-five-billion-dollar-wall/826495/454 "2019-01-14T23:27:21Z")
Per the Government Accountability Office: > [@](#): > > DHS plans to spend billions of dollars developing and deploying new barriers along the southwest border. However, by proceeding without key information on cost, acquisition baselines, and the contributions of previous barrier and technology deployments, DHS faces an increased risk that the Border Wall System Program will cost more than projected, take longer than planned, or not fully perform as expected. Without assessing costs when prioritizing locations for future barriers, CBP does not have complete information to determine whether it is using its limited resources in the most cost-effective manner and does not have important cost information that would help it develop future budget requests. Without documenting plans to require CBP to follow the DHS acquisition process for the San Diego barrier segment, DHS may not establish cost, schedule, and performance goals by which it can measure the program’s progress. In addition, Border Patrol should continue to implement our prior recommendations to assess the contributions of existing barriers and technologies deployed along the southwest border and consider this information when making future border security investments [https://www.gao.gov/reports/GAO-18-614/](https://www.gao.gov/reports/GAO-18-614/) ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-five-billion-dollar-wall/826495/455 "2019-01-14T23:30:32Z")
> [@magellan01](#): > > You. Not in this thread. But you do so repeatedly. Want to know what to think about climate? Listen to the experts. Want to know about any issue concerning black people, listen to black people. You deny this? I’m not interested in discussing such an irrelevant personal topic in this thread. I’m interested in discussing the factual sequence of events of this shutdown, in which Trump and his GOP allies made demands while offering nothing in return, executed a shutdown when those demands were not accepted, and are continuing to do nothing, and offer nothing, while the Democrats in the House pass bills opening the government at previously accepted bipartisan funding levels. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-five-billion-dollar-wall/826495/456 "2019-01-14T23:33:36Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > There were no such polls, or at least no such polls tracked by those who are good at it (i.e. Nate Silver and his team). … The NYT had HRC at 85%. HuffPo had her at 98%. PEC had her at 99%. They all were supposedly tracking the polls. I’m open to the possibility that they’re not very good at it though. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-five-billion-dollar-wall/826495/457 "2019-01-14T23:35:59Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > The NYT had HRC at 85%. HuffPo had her at 98%. PEC had her at 99%. They all were supposedly tracking the polls. I’m open to the possibility that they’re not very good at it though. Cite? At what point in the campaign did this happen? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-five-billion-dollar-wall/826495/458 "2019-01-14T23:38:22Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > Cite? At what point in the campaign did this happen? [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html#other-forecasts](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html) At the end. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-five-billion-dollar-wall/826495/459 "2019-01-14T23:39:00Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > Cite? At what point in the campaign did this happen? I remember PEC had that ridiculous confidence – proving that their analysis was seriously flawed. NYT is actually pretty good, IMO – not as good as Nate Silver’s 538, but perhaps the 2nd best major poll tracker. If they said 85%, that was obviously too high a confidence level, but 15% things still happen relatively frequently (about 1 in 6 times, in fact). But Nate Silver remains the gold standard, above and beyond everyone else, and he’s been (virtually) right on the money in 2008, 2012, and 2018, while being very close in 2010, 2014, and 2016, IIRC. And he says the polling was actually pretty good, in general, in 2016. It was just off by more than a small amount in a few states, which isn’t that unusual. ---
**Author:** ![OldGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/3bc359/32.png) [@OldGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-five-billion-dollar-wall/826495/460 "2019-01-14T23:50:49Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > The offer now is $5.7B of physical barriers for re-opening the portions of the government that are currently shut down. “Let me play baseball with you.” “No were playing already and the teams are set.” Grabbing the baseball. “Let’s compromise. I’ll give you your baseball back if yo ulet me play.” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-five-billion-dollar-wall/826495.md?page=22) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-five-billion-dollar-wall/826495.md?page=24)