I further see no reason, if a missile capable of achieving a suborbital trajectory at least can be launched from a submerged submarine, why it would be necessary for a submarine to surface to launch drones. Seems like a relatively trivial engineering problem to me.
Sorta depends on what we mean by “drones”. Lotta those vehicles are slow, which means large long wings, and are meant to be relatively inexpensive.
Having to craft a million dollar underwater capable launch capsule to push the thing above the waves so a $10K or $100K vehicle can be launched kinda defeats the purpose of large number of cheap weapons.
IANA submariner although IIRC you were. Bringing an SSBN near the surface to launch was always a calculated risk in terms of its vulnerability to attack while stationary brely beneath the waves. But considering the gravity of what they were doing, prosecuting the late stages of nuclear WW-III, that seems a reasonable risk.
If the reason we’re using subs to launch drones in that surface navies are toast, ISTM at least possible that stationary subs just below the surface might be equally vulnerable. That might not be a risk worth running for much less important missions.
I don’t have numbers, but I’ll also bet that per ton of ordnance carried, a sub is vastly more expensive than a surface ship. If so … However expensive a surface navy is, a purely underwater one will be 5x or 10x. That’s a recipe for adversaries to bankrupt the USA.
No, not a submariner.
But consider also that a drone or drones could probably be launched out a torpedo tube as well, as some cruise missiles can be. It doesn’t have to be anything super high tech: just a disposable canister might, for example, be sufficient to encase a drone or drones and allow for deployment from the surface after a launch from depth.
No special knowledge here, just commenting on what already seems feasible with extant technology.
ETA: Also, depending on the target, 10K, 100K, or even several million dollars can be very cheap by comparison.
So we’re talking about this concept, or a related one?
Which mentions UAV options for the concept itself, but no cites.
Includes information on a concept drone for such launches, but I haven’t found anything more recent.
Just as an aside, I think it’s worth considering that the best/most likely application for sub-launched drones would not be as weapons platforms (the subs themselves can handle that) but as remote sensors. A sub could, for example, deploy a drone as an aerial radar, which would be very useful (and honestly, it would be very useful for a ship as well) as otherwise, going active on radar is a dead (perhaps literally) giveaway as to one’s own location.
Would you be able to identify the “Second Variety”?
Thanks to Vladimir Putin forcing Ukraine to defend itself from an unprovoked attack by Russia Ukraine has developed and demonstrated effective drone ships that have attacked Russian vessels and bridges. Are we at all prepared for this kind of warfare? I don’t think the US and other countries are prepared to defend against attacks like this. We have many ports, these drones could enter hiding next to large cargo craft, and if effective drone submarines are developed they could hide under larger craft. We may be in good shape to detect large drone craft, maybe flying drone swarms as well, but I think our ability to detect navel drones will not be as effective. Drone mines could close harbors and be left in vulnerable areas like the various narrow straits that provide access to strategic waterways. Small nations would be far more vulnerable to attacks in their ports and waterways, which might be used to attack foreign trade vessels away from home.
So how big of a threat is this? How can we defend against it? Are we at all prepared for it? Are we prepared for larger drone navies with drone battleships? Or simply cargo containers that are actually drone aircraft carriers?
There was a lot of discussion of this in recent thread.
Thanks for pointing that out. It is related, but I wanted to concentrate on our preparation for dealing with the rapidly advancing present for navies.
Naval Drones are a very large threat to ships in port and not at the ready and able to maneuver. In theory we could put in sonar detection systems and maybe already have at big ports and Navy bases.
A US Navy fleet at sea as explained above should be pretty well protected.
Please note, there will not be drone battleships. Battleships are dead. In theory there might be drone gunships or drone torpedo boats. But that is probably still far off.
Drone mines, not sure what you mean by that. Mines are unattended and don’t maneuver. We would notice them being deployed and clean up.
Flying Drones: not very dangerous to Navy Ships at sea as explained above. We have weapons and radar to counter these and are adding more.
You have surmised correctly the biggest threat is to non-military ships. World Commerce would be pretty vulnerable. Though it is already very vulnerable to existing Submarines.
The Chinese have a very good submarine force and by what I’ve read, it is the one part of the Russian Navy they have kept up on. It appears Russia has 47 fast attack subs to go with their 11 Boomers. (Ballistic Missile Subs). The Chinese are reported to have 59 or 79 Subs. Some of their subs are Diesels and go to batteries for attack runs and are the quietest combat subs in the world.
The #1 threat to World Peace remains those Boomers of course. But that is a nuclear threat and not really a Navy/Shipping threat.
I meant a more generic version of a battleship. The armor not necessary, not going to be traditional armament either, but a large vessel that is a threat to smaller vessels and able to attack coastal ground based facilities.
Mine sent into harbors as drones that then hide on the bottom for later activation. We could find and deal with them, but not as easily as conventional mines. These could easily be made without any metal making them difficult to detect. Unlike conventional mines these could be much smarter and made to locate and travel to targets once activated. Even at our best a major harbor could be shut down for some time and outside of protected waters our trade and naval vessels are in potential danger. Drones blur the lines between mines, submarines, and surface attack vessels.
Manned submarines are much larger and easier to detect in shallow coastal waters, although they are a serious danger already.
Now there is also the threat of a nuclear drone ship, fairly small and difficult to detect.
Not going to happen, though fairly automated combat ships are happening. You don’t want a large ship, Frigate size or above to be fully automated. Just too many systems and too much to need repairs. Not to mention vulnerability to hacks. But I can see vessels over 300’ long with by Navy standards having very small crews.
The latest British Frigates will displace 6900t and be almost 500’ long and crew size should be 157. I think plans are for ships this size to get more automated and possibly a crew size of 60-70.
The non-metal mines to the best of my knowledge will still be picked up on sonar.
But a smart mine that can deploy from a large “fishing boat” and travel 4-5 miles and sit on the bottom to later be popped-up would be very dangerous and disruptive to a port. I know nothing about how possible this is yet or what countermeasures are being developed.
Small vessels have short range. A speed-boat sized vehicle, such as Ukraine used recently against that Russian assault ship and the Moskva, runs out of fuel at a couple hundred miles in good water. Less in bad weather in the open ocean.
For scenarios like UKR/Russia in the Black sea, the ranges involved are small enough that drones can play a large role. Ditto for e.g. Iran or Saudi Arabia dominating the Persian Gulf or Saudi Arabia / Sudan / Egypt in the Red Sea. The Malaccan Strait is readily drone-dominated.
The open Pacific, Atlantic, or even central Mediterranean or South China Sea? Not so much.
Small vessels can be towed by big vessels. They can be dropped into the water by big vessels.
What I see as the biggest problem aren’t the major powers. Any little country can now make practical drone ships that can be taken to distant locations by cargo ships. And of course shut down local ports and waterways.
I’m sure this happening. It’s been considered so far, but now Ukraine has performed the proof of concept. All over the world drone ship development just got a funding increase. Drone planes have had restrictive ranges that are difficult to overcome, and drone aircraft large enough to contain serious explosives are easy to detect. I don’t think we have the means to protect against this next step in robotic warfare right now.
Cargo ships (and latterly aircraft) have been the preferred way for irregular forces to deliver short-ranged weapons to their chosen enemy’s vulnerable spots since like forever.
Yes, you can hide virtually anything in a shipping container. And people have been. You still need some people to deploy the container’s payload.
I see this as one more brick in a very large wall, not as something utterly new and unprecedented. Is it good news for peace and world harmony? No. Is it yet another way modern tech enables David to effectively punch back at Goliath? Yes. Is that good or is it bad? Depends on which David is punching which Goliath.
I agree with this. People would be surprised what has long been capable with mines, for instance. We are waaaaay past the classic “minesweeper”style moored mines.
And of course, the key to making this work is near-absolute secrecy. A cargo ship with containerized drone attack ships could land a devastating blow, but only if it gets close enough. If the target nation gets wind of the attack, the cargo vessel would be very easy to kill before it reached its launch area.
Anything you do to make the cargo vessel more likely to survive such an attack would also make it easier to spot as a drone carrier, so there’s a major tradeoff.
Let’s not forget large, wheeled, wooden horses.
That’s some Serious Old Skool, but it just might work. 
You could always vary it up by trying a rabbit or a badger…