# The future of Netflix (and other on-demand streaming services)

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-future-of-netflix-and-other-on-demand-streaming-services/667748>\
**Category:** Cafe Society\
**Created:** [September 1, 2013, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-future-of-netflix-and-other-on-demand-streaming-services/667748 "2013-09-01T18:42:51Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 23

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**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\
**Post date:** [September 2, 2013, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-future-of-netflix-and-other-on-demand-streaming-services/667748/23 "2013-09-02T15:30:24Z")

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> [@Amateur\_Barbarian](#):
>
> Call it a hunch.

Oh, never mind. It didn’t sound a hunch the way you posted it. It sound like you had an informed and potentially cite-able opinion about the next 12 months or so.

You very well may be right in the long run, but remember that you said that this would all happen by the middle of next year or so. Do you think you kind of exaggerate things a bit? Or have a very poor sense of how long things take to occur?

And, wow, they were right. You said:

> [@Is Netflix down?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-netflix-down/645084/25):
>
> Having a major streaming outage on Xmas Eve is, I think, going to result in a sharp drop in subscriptions. I’d bet on 10-15% cancellations as a direct result.

Dude, was that a hunch too? It wasn’t\* that \*big of a deal. 10-15% is a huge number? Why did you guess such a large number?

Do you tend to mis-estimate(yes, I made that word up) quite a bit?

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