# The Government shut down prediction thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 20, 2013, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328 "2013-09-20T17:10:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2013, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/1 "2013-09-20T17:10:28Z")
Place your best guess to the following questions for the chance to win 100 Official Straight dope bragging bucks. 1. Will there be a government shut down. 2. If so how long will it last 3. In the end how will it be resolved. 4. Will shut out government employees get their salary back My answers are as follows: 1. Yes, there is no way PPACA (Obamacare) will go unfunded without a gun to Democrats heads, and everyone knows it. So even the Republicans know that a brinksmanship threat won’t get them what they want. If the threat was all rhetoric, the Republicans would have left themselves with an out, rather than being so explicit about their intentions. 2. About 3 weeks. Longer than last time because this set of Republicans are more bull headed, but eventually the inconvenience and constant harping of the media will be too much to bear 3. A coalition of Democrats, moderate Republicans will form a bare majority to continue funding at sequestration levels, and keep Obamacare. Boehner gets tossed out of the speakers post for violating the Hastert Rule, and almost all Republicans not in totally safe districts find themselves unemployed in January 2015. 4. No, the Federal employees have been a favorite whipping boy for at least a decade. They aren’t seen as real people and anything to make their lives less comfortable gains popular support. ---
**Author:** ![Farin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e79b87/32.png) [@Farin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Farin)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2013, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/2 "2013-09-20T17:23:49Z")
1. Yes. No one will come from their corners to the center of the ring to make a handshake over a common sense deal to help the American citizen in any way. Because ideaology is inviolate. 2. 2-5 weeks. It’ll take that long for either the Republicans to break because of back-pressure and negative media or the Democrats to get enough pressure from citizens/media to reach out from their corner to bring it to a close. 3. Most likely, the Republican gambit will fail because they pretend to have the cahones to pull this off, but they don’t really. It won’t cost them their seats, in the long run, but it will drive a lot of their constituents to at least I and some straight to D. 4. All federal employees such as the president, the Congress, the Federal Courts, and the Pentagon will get their cash money. Everyone else should feel lucky they are getting yanked around. How would they know they were alive if they weren’t? ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Excellent](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f19dbf/32.png) [@Mr.Excellent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Excellent)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2013, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/3 "2013-09-20T17:30:40Z")
No, there will not be a shutdown. The GOP have been playing the brinksmanship game since at least 2010, with no shutdown yet. Everyone realizes that no one comes out of a shutdown looking other than horrible. We’ll see continued sequester-level spending and a continued civil service pay freeze, probably through a short-term spending bill that will fuel another shutdown scare in December. ---
**Author:** ![shiftless](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9c0ed/32.png) [@shiftless](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/shiftless)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2013, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/4 "2013-09-20T17:38:13Z")
1. No. They did this once before and ended up paying everyone for taking a couple of days off to christmas shop. My prediction is, they will send home all non-essential personal for leave without pay for a week or so - sort of a mini sequestor. When some members of congress are inconvienced by the absence of the offical toast butteror or the congressional sommelier they will reconsider. ---
**Author:** ![ITR\_champion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c67d28/32.png) [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2013, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/5 "2013-09-20T17:44:10Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > 1. Will there be a government shut down. No. I predict this will end the same way that the last four or five showdowns between Obama and Congressional Republicans has ended. Both sides will spend weeks insisting that they won’t make a compromise. Then, late on the very last day, they will reach a compromise. Negotiations will be done behind closed doors, and the final document will avoid resolving the real issues, just like on all the previous occasions. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2013, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/6 "2013-09-20T17:49:19Z")
> [@](#): > > 1. Will there be a government shut down. Yes. > [@](#): > > 1. If so how long will it last 1 to 2 weeks. > [@](#): > > 1. In the end how will it be resolved. Similar to the OP’s prediction- Democrats and non-crazy Republicans will back continuing funding at sequester levels. > [@](#): > > 1. Will shut out government employees get their salary back Only active military- the rest will not, I’m guessing. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2013, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/7 "2013-09-20T17:55:54Z")
My guesses: 1. Yes 2. Five days 3. A minority of Republicans in each house will tire of the foolishness and vote with Dems to extend government funding, without a restriction on Obamacare, for the next two months or so. 4. I’m going to hope yes and think no. ---
**Author:** ![Tee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/73ab20/32.png) [@Tee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tee)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2013, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/8 "2013-09-20T21:43:17Z")
1. No 2. n/a 3. I believe a clean bill without defunding will be passed in the Senate and returned to the House. Key players in the House will by then have been ridiculed up, down, right, and left for the latest maneuver, and the House will pass a continuing resolution to maintain current funding until December, when we can do this all again. There will be accusations of selling out and new plans made to primary the traitors, providing a decent amount of comic relief until then. ---
**Author:** ![MrBurger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df705f/32.png) [@MrBurger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrBurger)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2013, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/9 "2013-09-20T22:00:21Z")
1. Yes. 2. Not long, a week tops. 3. Lot of grandstanding, nothing much changes, Republicans back down but declare moral victory, right wing talk show hosts either go along and take full credit or demand Boehner step down. 4. They shouldn’t since they were oblivious to the recession while the private sector suffered but they probably will due to the furloughs. ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2013, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/10 "2013-09-20T22:16:26Z")
1. Yes. This bipartisan standoff bullshit is the only government “work” we ever see. 2. Two months. 3. Obamacare gets shut down, giving God’s Own Party more ammunition on Dems wasting money 4. No. They’ll lose money. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2013, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/11 "2013-09-21T03:51:15Z")
1. No. There’s no real upside for the GOP dying on this hill. It won’t lead to Obamacare getting delayed/canceled, and if it goes on long enough risks the GOP losing seats in what should be a strong mid-term election for them. Boehner knows this, as so will humor the more extreme half of his party for another week and then will pass a bill with Dem votes once the deadline gets near. ---
**Author:** ![john\_b\_2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a9a28c/32.png) [@john\_b\_2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/john_b_2)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2013, 6:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/12 "2013-09-21T06:41:12Z")
My thoughts exactly, Simplicio: a shutdown would kill the Republicans in the mid-term elections next year. If at least some moderate Republicans could make peace with moderate Democrats they might have a chance, next year and in 2016, but not this way. This is political suicide, and the GOP will be blamed if it happens. ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2013, 7:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/13 "2013-09-21T07:23:11Z")
> [@john\_b\_2](#): > > My thoughts exactly, Simplicio: a shutdown would kill the Republicans in the mid-term elections next year. If at least some moderate Republicans could make peace with moderate Democrats they might have a chance, next year and in 2016, but not this way. This is political suicide, and the GOP will be blamed if it happens. How would it kill any GOP chances in the next few years? The central blame is always Obama and his minions by many outspoken GOP elected reps. The debt ceiling, gas prices, Syria, etc., is all on B.O. If they keep up the blame, many peeps would think the sky is certainly falling and vote republican because, um-- because, um, it’s Obama’s fault! 😉 ---
**Author:** ![waterj2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/858c86/32.png) [@waterj2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/waterj2)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2013, 5:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/14 "2013-09-22T05:40:36Z")
From what I’ve read of Senate procedure, Harry Reid can bring up the House Bill with the defunding language in it and file for cloture on that bill. The GOP would have a hard time with filibustering that, because it’s the bill they want to pass. Assuming there’s 60 votes to proceed (which only requires 5 Republicans), there’s then 30 hours of debate allowed before the bill goes up for a vote. During that time an amendment can be filed to strip the defunding language from the bill. That only needs 50 votes, and can’t be filibustered on its own, as it’s an amendment to a bill that has already passed a cloture vote. The amendment gets over 50 votes, then the amended bill gets over 50 votes, then the Senate and the House have to reconcile their versions. It seems pretty likely that there’s a majority of the House that’s willing to pass a bill without the defunding language. But that means a lot of Democratic votes. So, it comes down to whether John Boehner is willing to bring the bill up for a vote. I’m kind of hoping it takes a brief shutdown and a strong public outcry against the Republicans before they do so, just because it seems like Boehner’s other strategy for placating his caucus is to promise them a debt ceiling standoff instead, and that would be a very bad idea, and potentially disastrous. ---
**Author:** ![Duckster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duckster/32/1244_2.png) [@Duckster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duckster)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2013, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/15 "2013-09-22T20:50:19Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > 1. Will there be a government shut down. Yes, I hope so. > [@](#): > > 1. If so how long will it last One to two weeks. > [@](#): > > 1. In the end how will it be resolved. With baling wire and duct tape. > [@](#): > > 1. Will shut out government employees get their salary back No. Let’s not forget that federal contractors will not be paid no matter what happens to federal employees’ pay. ---
**Author:** ![SmartAlecCat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/67e7ee/32.png) [@SmartAlecCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmartAlecCat)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2013, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/16 "2013-09-23T01:15:29Z")
> [@Duckster](#): > > No. Let’s not forget that federal contractors will not be paid no matter what happens to federal employees’ pay. Wrong – as a federal contractor during previous extended shutdowns, due to the nature of our contract, we always got paid… ---
**Author:** ![Duckster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duckster/32/1244_2.png) [@Duckster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duckster)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2013, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/17 "2013-09-23T03:49:33Z")
> [@SmartAlecCat](#): > > Wrong – as a federal contractor during previous extended shutdowns, due to the nature of our contract, we always got paid… The only other government shutdown was in 1995-1996. While you may have been paid back then, there is no guarantee you will be paid this time. ---
**Author:** ![joebuck20](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/74df32/32.png) [@joebuck20](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/joebuck20)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2013, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/18 "2013-09-27T01:59:28Z")
It’s looking more and more like a certainty. [http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/house-republicans-reject-senate-spending-bill-explore-strategy-to-avoid-shutdown/2013/09/26/7b585a18-26b8-11e3-b75d-5b7f66349852\_story.html?hpid=z1](http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/house-republicans-reject-senate-spending-bill-explore-strategy-to-avoid-shutdown/2013/09/26/7b585a18-26b8-11e3-b75d-5b7f66349852_story.html?hpid=z1) > [@](#): > > Using Senate rules permitting him to change the wording of a spending measure approved by the House last week, Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) is expected to strip out language that would defund the law, change the expiration date on the funding bill to Nov. 15, and pass the measure with a simple majority achieved entirely with Democratic votes. > > Once the bill returns to the House, any move to change it would by necessity mean that the fight over funding the government would almost certainly continue at least until the final minutes of the fiscal year late on Monday night since the Senate’s arcane, time-sensitive rules would make swift consideration unlikely. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2013, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/19 "2013-09-27T03:21:53Z")
> [@Duckster](#): > > The only other government shutdown was in 1995-1996. There have been 17 gov’t shutdowns. ---
**Author:** ![joebuck20](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/74df32/32.png) [@joebuck20](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/joebuck20)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2013, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/20 "2013-09-27T03:53:31Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > There have been 17 gov’t shutdowns. Here’s a list of government shutdowns: [http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/09/25/here-is-every-previous-government-shutdown-why-they-happened-and-how-they-ended/](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/09/25/here-is-every-previous-government-shutdown-why-they-happened-and-how-they-ended/) It seems like in the 70s and 80s they shut the government down at the drop of a hat. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328.md?page=2)