# The Government shut down prediction thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 20, 2013, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328 "2013-09-20T17:10:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 13\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2013, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/21 "2013-09-28T00:14:26Z")
> [@joebuck20](#): > > It seems like in the 70s and 80s they shut the government down at the drop of a hat. The previous shutdowns never affected every agency. They happened after some appropriation bills has passed, generally, at least, VA and Defense. Some shutdowns on your list seem to only have affected one or two agencies. A shutdown this big would be a rare event. And predicting the a rare event will happen is generally a mistake. But for what it’s worth, here are some pieces by a smart guy who seems to be predicting a shutdown: > **[The House GOP Wants to Throw a Temper Tantrum, and Boehner Can't Stop Them](https://newrepublic.com/article/114888/government-shutdown-2013-boehner-cant-stop-gop-temper-tantrum)** > > Here’s the question to ask yourself while watching the government shutdown/debt-limit insanity play out these next few days: Is the congressional GOP a global menace, bent on destruction of an epic scale, or merely a goofy,... > **[If John Boehner Knows What's Good For Him, He'll Shut Down the Government](https://newrepublic.com/article/114857/john-boehner-needs-government-shutdown-avoid-debt-default)** > > What the hell is John Boehner thinking? I don’t mean that strictly in a rhetorical sense, though it’s hard not to slap your head when you see the most powerful Republican in the country lurching from one cockamamie strategy to another. I mean it... > [@](#): > > If Boehner resigns himself to a shutdown, on the other hand, suddenly the future looks manageable. . . . > > The demoralized conservatives will realize they’re out of moves—at least in this particular battle—allowing Boehner to raise the debt limit a few weeks later with little drama. . . . > > Does Boehner appreciate that a shutdown, while far less than ideal, is really his only way out of a terrible situation? It’s tough to say. Psychologically, people often have a hard time inflicting pain on themselves in order to avoid certain death. (Think of how hard it would be to jump from the fourth story of a burning building even if you knew it was your only chance of surviving…) . . . > > Still, there are some indications that the logic of the situation is starting to sink in. According to Politico, Boehner is also considering making the delay of the individual mandate a condition for funding the government, which would almost certainly result in a shutdown and start the chain of events I’ve described. If that comes to pass, Boehner would once again prove he’s far savvier than almost anyone in Washington gives him credit for. ---
**Author:** ![aNewLeaf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ac91a4/32.png) [@aNewLeaf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aNewLeaf)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2013, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/22 "2013-09-28T00:28:31Z")
Wanted to mention, nearly all of the affected employees will have Paid Time Off saved up. A day off with pay isn’t quite like a vacation but it’s not exactly a hardship either. They won’t get reimbursed for the time though, it’s gone. Just One of Those Things. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2013, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/23 "2013-09-28T02:04:47Z")
> [@aNewLeaf](#): > > Wanted to mention, nearly all of the affected employees will have Paid Time Off saved up. > A day off with pay isn’t quite like a vacation but it’s not exactly a hardship either. > They won’t get reimbursed for the time though, it’s gone. Just One of Those Things. I wanted to mention that this is completely false. And also at least a little dangerous, in the off chance that a casual reader who is a federal employee reads this and makes plans under the assumption he can use his leave, and buys that Winnebago anyway. All paid time off during a shutdown furlough period is canceled. The requirement to furlough overrides leave and other paid time off obligations. The Antideficiency Act (31 U.S.C. 1341 et seq.) does not allow authorization of _any_ expenditure or obligation before an appropriation bill is passed into law. Paid time off creates a debt to the Government that is not authorized by the Antideficiency Act. No paid time off for non-excepted employees. And I urge you to check your facts before confident spewing of inaccurate information. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2013, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/24 "2013-09-28T02:10:57Z")
Yep, **Bricker** ’s totally right. Annual leave cannot be used in a government shutdown, nor can it be used for the furlough days that happened this year due to sequester. **aNewLeaf** is just totally wrong: if someone isn’t an essential/emergency employee, they lose pay for every day the government is closed, unless Congress later passes a law to compensate them for the time. And as most people are predicting, that is unlikely. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2013, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/25 "2013-09-28T02:28:35Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Yep, **Bricker** ’s totally right. Annual leave cannot be used in a government shutdown, nor can it be used for the furlough days that happened this year due to sequester. **aNewLeaf** is just totally wrong: if someone isn’t an essential/emergency employee, they lose pay for every day the government is closed, unless Congress later passes a law to compensate them for the time. > > And as most people are predicting, that is unlikely. Actually, there are two categories of employees that will still get paid. “Excepted employees” are those whose jobs constitute emergency work that protects life or property. The law permits these functions to continue even during a lapse in funding. The second category is “exempt.” Employees are exempt if they are paid by some source other than annually appropriated funds, OR are appointed by the President and not covered by the leave system in 5 USC § 63, or some equivalent formalized leave system. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2013, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/26 "2013-09-28T02:32:13Z")
You win again. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2013, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/27 "2013-09-28T04:27:53Z")
**Ravenman**! What have you _done_?! You couldn’t be satisfied with just unleashing the Kraken, could you? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2013, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/28 "2013-09-28T04:37:15Z")
Heard an interesting take on this by way of Ezra Klein. His take is that he hopes the government shutdown _does_ happen rather than see Boehner postpone the crisis to the credit limit. His reasoning is that although no crisis at all is best, of course, if we must have one because the Insane Clown Posse _must_ have one to slake their bloodlusts, then let it be a government shutdown. Get the poisons out of their systems. He figures that once the impact of the shutdown begins to reach Wall Street, the squeals of porcine rage will rain down on the Republicans and they will come around, having “made their point” or “shot their wad”, whichever. Then, properly chastened, they will make the needful moves to avert disaster. An interesting idea, but I remain skeptical of any prospect that depends on the reasonability and rationality of the aforementioned clown posse. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2013, 5:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/29 "2013-09-28T05:11:26Z")
(Perhaps I should start a separate thread in GQ, but I’ll ask here first.) With U.S. Federal government possibly headed to another shutdown, I’m curious what other governments have “shut down.” I think the City of Detroit has closed some schools, etc., but it’s not “shut down,” right? Iraq in the 2000’s and some Eastern European countries in the 1990’s effectively “shut down,” I think. Are there examples of “normal” countries “shutting down”? Or is this a uniquely American phenomenon? ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2013, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/30 "2013-09-28T05:37:41Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Or is this a uniquely American phenomenon? Foreign Policy magazine [says yes.](http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/07/why_don_t_other_countries_have_government_shutdowns) And that it almost happened in Japan, but didn’t. The system of government that leads to shutdowns (and other general gridlock) seems to be pretty uniquely American. We have absolutely fixed terms of office with an independently-elected executive, which most countries don’t have. It could also theoretically happen in Australia, I think, as the Senate has the power to reject budgets, but has no input over who is in government. But the last time it came down to that, it was resolved (very controversially) by [other means.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Australian_constitutional_crisis) And that was an unprecedented event with an unprecedented outcome that gets labeled as a “constitutional crisis” rather than a ho-hum thing that gets threatened every three months. I believe an Australian state also did some dodgy things to keep running at one point. I’m going off of half memories, but I think a state was heavily in debt and had to withdraw all of its money and store it as cash in a vault. That was the only way to keep the debt collectors away and the state solvent. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 7:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/31 "2013-10-01T07:51:23Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > 1. No. Well, that was a brilliant prediction. Shall we go double or nothing and predict how long the shutdown will last? I’ll take three days. ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 8:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/32 "2013-10-01T08:00:19Z")
Three days? After quoting Green Eggs & Ham, that’s all you’re thinking? Since they’re being so damn biblical, I’ll go with 40 days. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 9:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328/33 "2013-10-01T09:14:32Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > (Perhaps I should start a separate thread in GQ, but I’ll ask here first.) > > With U.S. Federal government possibly headed to another shutdown, I’m curious what other governments have “shut down.” I think the City of Detroit has closed some schools, etc., but it’s not “shut down,” right? Iraq in the 2000’s and some Eastern European countries in the 1990’s effectively “shut down,” I think. Are there examples of “normal” countries “shutting down”? Or is this a uniquely American phenomenon? In most Parliamentry democracies, if the budget is not passed, the government of the day falls and usually parliament is dissolved and you have new elections. So politicians faced with the prospect of losing their jobs and facing a seriously pissed off electorate have an incentive to continue to compromise. Moreover, budgets are usually passed in advance of the fiscal year, one month generally. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-government-shut-down-prediction-thread/669328.md?page=1)