# The Great Ongoing Space Exploration Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** science-math\ **Created:** [November 16, 2020, 12:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703 "2020-11-16T12:18:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 105
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2083 "2025-04-29T03:14:17Z")
It’s just preparing for the Death Blossom: [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/MLNvUsTBGyE/maxresdefault.jpg "The Last Starfighter (8/10) Movie CLIP - Death Blossom (1984) HD") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLNvUsTBGyE&t=126) ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2084 "2025-04-29T18:06:23Z")
Not “exploration,” exactly, but…: [Russian satellite linked to nuclear weapon program appears out of control, U.S. analysts say | Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/russian-satellite-linked-nuclear-weapon-program-appears-out-control-us-analysts-2025-04-25/) ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2085 "2025-04-29T18:23:00Z")
> **[Amazon launches Project Kuiper satellites designed to compete with Elon...](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/28/science/amazon-spacex-project-kuiper-satellite-internet/index.html)** > > Amazon has launched the first installment of its Project Kuiper satellite internet service. It’s aiming to take on the dominance of SpaceX’s Starlink. 27 launched. Only 3209 to go. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2086 "2025-04-29T22:22:29Z")
How far behind schedule is Starship now from where SpaceX hoped to be when upper-stage flights began in 2020? ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2087 "2025-04-29T22:39:39Z")
Impossible to say for sure since they deliberately shoot for optimistic schedules. The difference here is that Project Kuiper has a July '26 deadline from the FCC to launch half their satellites, and it seems unlikely that they’ll hit that given how slowly they’ve been moving. Probably they can get an extension if they demonstrate reasonable progress. But it’s hard to be sure. ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2025, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2088 "2025-04-30T00:57:16Z")
Firefly launched the “Message in a Booster” mission today on an Alpha rocket, but suffered an anomaly at first stage separation. It appeared that there was recontact between the two stages, that knocked off the second stage engine nozzle. The stage lost stability briefly but then recovered and completed its burn without the nozzle. It’s not clear yet whether there is an impact on the mission objectives. Impressive that the stage recovered. I’ve never seen anything like that before. More information to be released later today. Update Without the nozzle, the payload didn’t have enough energy to remain in orbit, so re-entered and was lost. FAA will conduct a mishap investigation. Recontact after separation is usually an ullage issue, the second stage didn’t push off with enough momentum. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/o35dNjHwWuc/maxresdefault.jpg "Firefly Aerospace Launches Alpha FLTA006 "Message In A Booster"") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o35dNjHwWuc) ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2025, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2089 "2025-04-30T01:02:34Z")
There was the recent Vulcan rocket that lost most of the nozzle on one of the boosters: [![](https://spaceflightnow.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/20241004-Vulcan-booster-outburst-678x425.jpg) ](https://spaceflightnow.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/20241004-Vulcan-booster-outburst-678x425.jpg) Still made it to orbit. But losing one booster nozzle is not nearly as bad as losing the nozzle on your second stage, which is much more sensitive to performance. SpaceX does have their shorty second-stage nozzles used on missions that don’t need as much performance. There was also that time that they intentionally trimmed a few inches off the nozzle because it had developed some cracks (they did the math and the performance was still fine). But yeah, pretty surprising that the second stage survived at all. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2025, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2090 "2025-04-30T03:00:27Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > The difference here is that Project Kuiper has a July '26 deadline from the FCC to launch half their satellites, and it seems unlikely that they’ll hit that given how slowly they’ve been moving. Probably they can get an extension if they demonstrate reasonable progress. But it’s hard to be sure. Have they got a warehouse full of rockets ready to go? That seems very ambitious at this point. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2025, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2091 "2025-04-30T03:23:41Z")
Yes and no. Mostly no. Last I checked, they had launch contracts for the Falcon 9, Atlas V, New Glenn, and Vulcan. Atlas V basically is a warehouse of rockets at this point. Or engines, at least. The first stage engines are Russian and the supply is cut off. Amazon bought the last of them. Around a dozen flights I think. SpaceX of course doesn’t need a warehouse since their rockets are flying as soon as they can build or refurb the components. Amazon could certainly purchase a large number of these flights but they don’t seem inclined to be dependent on SpaceX. And even then, there’s only so much capacity they can absorb. New Glenn and Vulcan are what I’d call… barely operational. They’ve only flown three times between them. I’m sure they’ll be perfectly fine rockets after a while, but they both really need to increase their cadence. Finally, there’s the problem of the satellites themselves. This may be an even bigger problem than the launchers. They claim to have some high production rate, 5 per day or something, but haven’t demonstrated that yet. Meanwhile, SpaceX is sending up 50+ per week, basically every week (they put up 73 over 2 days just a couple days ago). So Amazon has a long way to go. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2025, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2092 "2025-04-30T03:33:35Z")
Oh, I forgot the Ariane 6. Has also only launched twice in the last 9 months. Current launch manifest: [![Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/qVrENMY.jpeg "imgur.com") ](https://imgur.com/qVrENMY) (that was a joke… mostly) ---
**Author:** ![JacobSwan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a6a055/32.png) [@JacobSwan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JacobSwan)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2025, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2093 "2025-04-30T15:58:01Z")
There’s also a failed soviet Venus probe that’s due to crash back to earth in the next few days. Highly likely to survive reentry as it was designed to survive landing on Venus. > **[Kosmos 482](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosmos_482?wprov=sfti1)** > > Kosmos 482 (Russian: Космос 482 meaning Cosmos 482), launched March 31, 1972, at 04:02:33 UTC, was an attempted Venus probe which failed to escape low Earth orbit. It is expected to crash back to Earth sometime around May 9–10, 2025. Its landing module, which weighs 495 kilograms (1,091 lb), is highly likely to reach the surface of Earth in one piece as it was designed to withstand 300 G's of acceleration and 100 atmospheres of pressure. > Beginning in 1962, the name Kosmos was given to Soviet s... ---
**Author:** ![Pork\_Rind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pork_rind/32/111_2.png) [@Pork\_Rind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pork_Rind)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2025, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2094 "2025-04-30T16:01:02Z")
> [@JacobSwan](#): > > There’s also a failed soviet Venus probe that’s due to crash back to earth in the next few days. Highly likely to survive reentry as it was designed to survive landing on Venus. [Last time that happened things got really tense.](https://bionic.fandom.com/wiki/Death_Probe) > **[Death Probe](https://bionic.fandom.com/wiki/Death_Probe)** > > A Soviet launch of a probe to Venus malfunctions, bringing the probe down in the United States. Because it is made of a new alloy, unknown to American technology, Soviet scientists and agents are anxious to recover the probe, which has landed in a... ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2025, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2095 "2025-04-30T16:04:18Z")
ninja’d ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2025, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2096 "2025-04-30T17:25:16Z")
Actually you were both ninja’ed a couple days ago. ---
**Author:** ![Pork\_Rind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pork_rind/32/111_2.png) [@Pork\_Rind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pork_Rind)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2025, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2097 "2025-04-30T17:29:22Z")
Well in my defense, it _was_ a two-part episode. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2025, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2098 "2025-05-02T17:59:06Z")
> Overall, NASA is asked to take a 25 percent cut in its budget, from about $25 billion to $18.8 billion. > > [Ars has previously reported](https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/04/trump-white-house-budget-proposal-eviscerates-science-funding-at-nasa/) on some of these proposed cuts, most notably to its science budget. These include a $2.265 billion reduction in Space science and a $1.161 billion reduction in Earth science. Perhaps the most notable cancellation here is the Mars Sample Return mission, which the budget proposal says will be achieved by human missions to Mars. > > There are also significant changes proposed in NASA’s biggest-ticket exploration programs. The budget would cancel the Lunar Gateway that NASA has started developing and end the Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft after two more flights, Artemis II and Artemis III. > **[White House budget seeks to end SLS, Orion, and Lunar Gateway programs](https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/05/white-house-budget-seeks-to-end-sls-orion-and-lunar-gateway-programs/)** > > “SLS alone costs $4 billion per launch and is 140 percent over budget.”… I am surprised Musk didn’t push for and get a big increase–the more money in NASA’s budget, the more money in Musk’s pocket. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2025, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2099 "2025-05-02T20:42:24Z")
If SLS is cancelled then SpaceX’s Starship is probably the only viable contender. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2025, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2100 "2025-05-02T20:54:18Z")
But when? They are going to do Artemis 2 and Artemis 3. Considering the continuing delays with Artemis can anything else be done other than those two by the end of Trump’s term (and it might even take longer than that to do Artemis 2 and 3)? And then maybe Blue Origin will be an alternative. ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2025, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2101 "2025-05-10T05:09:27Z")
As I write this (12:08AM Central time, May 10, 2025) the Soviet-era Cosmos 482 satellite, which was supposed to go to Venus but didn’t quite make it, is slated to fall to earth in an hour or two. You can watch live stats here. > **[LIVE! 53 Year Soviet Spacecraft COSMOS 482 Reentry Countdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dseLu6lMSgQ%2F)** > > Kosmos 482 wasn’t supposed to orbit our planet for decades. Launched by the Soviet Union on March 31, 1972, it was intended to be a Venus lander, part of the... ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2025, 12:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2102 "2025-05-10T12:01:50Z")
I went out on the porch expectantly several times to glimpse it, bupkis! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703.md?page=104) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703.md?page=106)