# The Great Ongoing Space Exploration Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** science-math\ **Created:** [November 16, 2020, 12:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703 "2020-11-16T12:18:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 110
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2025, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2183 "2025-08-07T20:28:10Z")
They plan on flying this month. They had a seemingly successful static fire of the Ship not too long ago, though there are signs that they might do another. They haven’t paused at all. In fact, they’re moving fairly rapidly given the circumstances. As I think you know, they had a little setback at the “Massey’s” test facility, where they do static fires of the Ship. That blew up real good. The only other facility remotely capable of handling a static fire for the Ship is the launch pad itself–but that is only designed to hold the Booster, not the Ship. Aside from diameter, the mounting for the two vehicles is completely different. But somehow they whipped up an adapter in a matter of weeks and have already put it to use. Quite a risk, really, since if the Ship had another failure it would take out their one complete launch mount. But maybe not as bad as it seems as they’re making progress on another mount. They still aren’t quite ready yet but August seems at least plausible if there are no more RUDs. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2025, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2184 "2025-08-07T20:37:13Z")
If they launch, and the first stage goes well, and then they have _ **another** _ upper-stage fire and loss of attitude control in mid-course, then one of two things: either they’ve completely botched the design or else I swear they ought to start looking for an anti-Musk saboteur somewhere in the engineering team. I’m serious, there are so many people who hate Musk in general and the Starship program in particular, that if anyone like some of the commentators you read online managed to secret themselves into the program… ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2025, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2185 "2025-08-07T20:40:47Z")
Perhaps the Great Galactic Ghoul knows something of musk’s future success trajectory unless interfered with early. **GGG** : All these worlds are yours. Except Mars. Make no (significant) landings there. ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2025, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2186 "2025-08-07T21:03:34Z")
I would day that the first scenario is much more likely but the second is much more pleasing. ---
**Author:** ![JacobSwan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a6a055/32.png) [@JacobSwan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JacobSwan)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2025, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2187 "2025-08-08T19:59:47Z")
Another great has headed to the stars. > **[James Lovell, who guided Apollo 13 safely back to Earth, dies aged 97](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cl7y8zq5xpno.amp)** > > Commander of Apollo 13, who rescued his men from a near certain death in space, has died aged 97. ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2025, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2188 "2025-08-08T22:23:28Z")
I came here to announce the same thing. TIL that he actually went to the moon TWICE, although never landed. I just wish that he could have seen us return to the moon, and say the same thing about Buzz Aldrin…..sort of. The “sort of” is because I have a feeling that we are not supposed to go back there, and can’t quite define why. Godspeed, Jim Lovell! > **[MSN](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/james-lovell-death-apollo-13-commander-known-for-saving-crew-on-doomed-moon-mission-dies-at-age-97/ar-AA1Kb6DC?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=68966bdb9fe44a3ab36e53960316845c&ei=10)** ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2025, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2189 "2025-08-08T22:59:16Z")
No, the obelisk in Tycho crater is quite welcoming. It’s the obelisk on Europa which is the party pooper. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2025, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2190 "2025-08-08T23:02:50Z")
Don’t you mean monolith? (Unless it is a tetrahedron after all). ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2025, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2191 "2025-08-08T23:13:34Z")
Yes. Yes I do. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2025, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2192 "2025-08-08T23:24:20Z")
> [@nearwildheaven](#): > > The “sort of” is because I have a feeling that we are not supposed to go back there Or maybe we don’t deserve to. But still, it does pain me that it looks ever more like none of that generation of Moon Men will get to welcome home the next. ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2025, 12:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2193 "2025-08-09T12:56:16Z")
For the record, five out of the 24 people who flew to the moon during the Apollo program remain living (Buzz Aldrin, 95; Fred Haise, 91; David Scott, 93; Charlie Duke, 89; and Harrison Schmitt, 90) Brian ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2025, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2194 "2025-08-09T13:04:45Z")
This isn’t quite on-point since “walked on the moon” is a subset of “orbited the moon” and Lovell was a member of the larger set only, but: [![](https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/65_years.png) ](https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/65_years.png) from **[xkcd: 65 Years](https://xkcd.com/893/)**. ---
**Author:** ![Ponderoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ponderoid/32/19221_2.png) [@Ponderoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ponderoid)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2025, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2195 "2025-08-09T13:20:53Z")
So, 4 moonwalkers left (Haise didn’t walk on the moon; the other 4 did). According to that chart, they’re just to the right of the shaded zone. I wonder if Randal found a table to use that allowed him to account for the astronauts having been selected from a much more physically fit population. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2025, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2196 "2025-08-09T14:55:17Z")
OTOH, each of them spent a bunch of time in space and the radiation appurtenant thereunto. Either prior to, during, or post-Apollo. Seems like that might be a decent offsetting penalty for their better-than-normal health status. Heck, it’s pretty clear that simply being US upper middle class college educated white is worth an extra decade or so above the US average and 15-20 above the US non-white low-education poor folks. The point on the chart that matters is the drop from 5 to 4. The probability centerline has that occurring in 2020. Our cohort is outlasting the predicted average by 5 years. The 95th percentile confidence interval drops to 4 in about 2024, so our cohort is even outlasting the 95%ile confidence line. Suggesting our cohort is much healthier than whatever table he did use. Despite the radiation. Fierce men of fierce constitution indeed. The only tables I’ve been able to find and use are SSA’s which are all-USians, segregated only by sex. See **[SSA - Actuarial Life Table](https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html)** if interested. If anyone has a cite to more sub-grouped tables I’d be interested in those. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2025, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2197 "2025-08-09T20:35:06Z")
List of people who have orbited the moon: | Name | Birth Date | Death Date | Mission(s) | Age at death | Current age | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Frank Borman | March 14, 1928 | November 7, 2023 | Apollo 8 | 95.7 | | | Jim Lovell | March 25, 1928 | August 7, 2025 | Apollo 8, Apollo 13 | 97.4 | | | Bill Anders | October 17, 1933 | June 7, 2024 | Apollo 8 | 90.6 | | | Thomas Stafford | September 17, 1930 | March 18, 2024 | Apollo 10 | 93.5 | | | John Young | September 24, 1930 | January 5, 2018 | Apollo 10, Apollo 16 | 87.3 | | | Eugene Cernan | March 14, 1934 | January 16, 2017 | Apollo 10, Apollo 17 | 82.8 | | | Neil A. Armstrong | August 5, 1930 | August 25, 2012 | Apollo 11 | 82.1 | | | Michael Collins | October 31, 1930 | April 28, 2021 | Apollo 11 | 90.5 | | | Buzz Aldrin | January 20, 1930 | N/A | Apollo 11 | | 95.6 | | Pete Conrad | June 2, 1930 | July 8, 1999 | Apollo 12 | 69.1 | | | Dick Gordon | October 5, 1929 | November 6, 2017 | Apollo 12 | 88.1 | | | Alan Bean | March 15, 1932 | May 26, 2018 | Apollo 12 | 86.2 | | | Jack Swigert | August 30, 1931 | December 27, 1982 | Apollo 13 | 51.3 | | | Fred Haise | November 14, 1933 | N/A | Apollo 13 | | 91.7 | | Alan Shepard | November 18, 1923 | July 21, 1998 | Apollo 14 | 74.7 | | | Stuart Roosa | August 16, 1933 | December 12, 1994 | Apollo 14 | 61.3 | | | Edgar Mitchell | September 17, 1930 | February 4, 2016 | Apollo 14 | 85.4 | | | David Scott | June 6, 1932 | N/A | Apollo 15 | | 93.2 | | Alfred Worden | February 7, 1932 | March 18, 2020 | Apollo 15 | 88.1 | | | James Irwin | March 17, 1930 | August 8, 1991 | Apollo 15 | 61.4 | | | Ken Mattingly | March 17, 1936 | October 31, 2023 | Apollo 16 | 87.6 | | | Charles Duke | October 3, 1935 | N/A | Apollo 16 | | 89.9 | | Ronald Evans | November 10, 1933 | April 7, 1990 | Apollo 17 | 56.4 | | | Harrison Schmitt | July 3, 1935 | N/A | Apollo 17 | | 90.1 | The remaining cohort is certainly getting up there. According to the linked actuarial table, they all have around 3-4 years left. So the xkcd chart looks reasonably accurate. One of them might last to 2035 but only if we’re lucky. The astronauts do seem to have somewhat bimodal longevity. Lots of them reached \>85; way more than the average US male life expectancy. But a handful died quite early. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2025, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2198 "2025-08-09T20:45:49Z")
Ronald Evans, 56.4: heart attack James Irwin, 61.4: heart attack Stuart Roosa, 61.3: pancreatitus Jack Swiger, 51.3: respiratory failure I wonder what risk factors they might have shared in a pool of candidates chosen for their health back in their prime. ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2025, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2199 "2025-08-12T01:49:23Z")
Quite a few potential astronauts died in plane crashes, as test pilots, and there’s also Apollo 1. I didn’t know that two other astronauts, besides Lovell, also went to the moon twice. Wow. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2025, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2200 "2025-08-13T03:16:30Z")
And Vulcan _finally_ flies a national security spacecraft: > **[ULA launches Vulcan rocket on first Space Force mission – Spaceflight Now](https://spaceflightnow.com/2025/08/13/ula-launches-vulcan-rocket-on-first-space-force-mission/)** Not that interesting in the grand scheme of things, but we can finally close out this little chapter: [![Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/zWrIrOt.png "imgur.com") ](https://imgur.com/zWrIrOt) ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2025, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2201 "2025-08-16T00:52:30Z")
Tentative date is August 24: > Also, they released a report on the Flight 9 and Ship 36 problems: > **[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/updates#flight-9-report)** > > SpaceX designs, manufactures and launches advanced rockets and spacecraft. In short: The booster was lost because the propellant downcomer failed during descent, caused by heavy loads from the aggressive angle of attack. They don’t explicitly say so, but IMO this wasn’t especially unexpected. They intentionally went for a high angle of attack as a test, and had always planned on ditching in the ocean. They have a better idea now of their structural margin. The upper stage failed due to damage to the “main fuel tank pressurization system diffuser”. I don’t know exactly what this does, but the failure affected both the reaction control system and the cargo doors. This was clearly not an expected failure, but also seems to be novel. Ship 36 was lost on the ground due to the COPV failure, as we already knew. They’ve reduced the pressure and improved testing. Overall, this seems fine. The failures are still new ones, not a repeat of old ones. Obviously I’d like to see them have a total success on the next flight, but clearly they’re still making forward progress with the failures. And the failures wouldn’t even exist if Starship was an ordinary rocket. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2025, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/2202 "2025-08-16T01:19:22Z")
Frankly after the latest string of failures Starship seemed to be losing ground. The upper stages need to survive to splashdown before they can even evaluate whether the heat shielding is working. Two years ago I’d have thought they’d be test-landing upper stages back at the launch site by now. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703.md?page=109) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703.md?page=111)