# The Great Ongoing Space Exploration Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** science-math\ **Created:** [November 16, 2020, 12:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703 "2020-11-16T12:18:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 33
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2023, 7:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/642 "2023-03-02T07:18:21Z")
Blue Origin might make sense as a buyer of last resort, because Bezos needs ULA both as a customer of BE-4 and as a launch provider for Amazon’s satellite constellation. But I agree, this doesn’t happen unless there’s a lot of uncertainty around New Glenn, or unless ULA brings some expertise or infrastructure that Blue Origin lacks. I don’t see Amazon buying it. Amazon does not need to become a launch provider. That’s why Bezos started Blue Origin. Someome will buy it, though, even if the government has to front the cash. ULA is too important to the military to let it go under or seriously downsize or something. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2023, 9:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/643 "2023-03-02T09:15:09Z")
A pretty good postmortem of the failed Astra flight from last year: > **[Conclusion Of TROPICS-1 Mishap Investigation | Astra](https://astra.com/news/conclusion-tropics-1-mishap-investigation/)** > > By Andrew Griggs, Head of Mission Assurance, and Adam London, Founder and Chief Technical Officer I applaud their transparency. While some of it could be considered “obvious” (they really didn’t think to verify that fully attached vacuum flow wouldn’t change their thermal limits?), rockets have so many things that can go wrong that even obvious things slip through the cracks (as SpaceX knows well from the Falcon 1 days). Anyway, the writeup is accessible to a layman and is worth reading if you like failure analysis type stuff. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2023, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/644 "2023-03-03T22:11:54Z")
The Crew-6 astronauts have now been delivered safely to the ISS. That means SpaceX has _completed_ their Commercial Crew contract before Boeing has launched their _first_ operational mission. Since then, NASA has awarded SpaceX with 8 additional crew missions, but this completes the original batch. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2023, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/645 "2023-03-03T22:14:41Z")
But Boeing is worth paying a higher contract price, because of all that institutional knowledge and technical excellence that SpaceX just doesn’t have… ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2023, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/646 "2023-03-03T22:25:13Z")
It makes me feel slightly better that they’re still probably losing money on that contract. But only slightly. ---
**Author:** ![Pork\_Rind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pork_rind/32/111_2.png) [@Pork\_Rind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pork_Rind)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2023, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/647 "2023-03-03T22:48:33Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > The Crew-6 astronauts have now been delivered safely to the ISS. That means SpaceX has _completed_ their Commercial Crew contract before Boeing has launched their _first_ operational mission. Wouldn’t the contract require safe _return_ too? ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2023, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/648 "2023-03-03T22:53:39Z")
Technically. But they’re coming back one way or another, so… ---
**Author:** ![Pork\_Rind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pork_rind/32/111_2.png) [@Pork\_Rind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pork_Rind)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2023, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/649 "2023-03-03T23:34:18Z")
I don’t know. Major Tom didn’t come back, did he? Anyway, I would assume that the contract has some language preferring that the crew doesn’t return as cinders, but maybe they forgot that part. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2023, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/650 "2023-03-04T01:17:27Z")
Are you rooting for Space X or Boeing? ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2023, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/651 "2023-03-04T01:28:13Z")
I really _want_ Boeing to fly, since I think it’s in everyone’s interest to have two providers to sending crew to orbit. SpaceX could still have a failure, and currently the backup plan is Russia, which I _really_ don’t want to depend on ever again (both because of Ukraine and because their reliability is in the gutter right now). Boeing deserves a great deal of criticism for turning from an engineering-centric company into one devoted to short-sighted profitability concerns. I would really like to see them behave otherwise. So I’m rooting for Boeing to turn themselves around, and for SpaceX to continue their impressive development progress. But I don’t have great confidence in the former. I’m expecting one of the other players to become a viable competitor instead. I do think Sierra Nevada got dealt a bad hand, and that the other Commercial Crew slot should have gone to them instead. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2023, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/652 "2023-03-04T01:30:49Z")
I want to see Dream Chaser carry astronauts to the ISS. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2023, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/653 "2023-03-04T01:38:55Z")
It’s not impossible. They did win a cargo supply contract to the ISS. So it could happen someday that they get the funding for a crew version as well, or use the revenue to pursue it on their own (for tourism, etc.). But I expect it’ll be a while before that’s plausible. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2023, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/654 "2023-03-04T01:40:12Z")
It lands like a @#$%! aircraft. It has a shroud on launch so that tiles aren’t damaged. What could go wrong? ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2023, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/655 "2023-03-04T01:44:27Z")
I don’t think it needs the shroud to protect the tiles. Unlike the Shuttle, there’s nothing ahead of it to fall off and impact them. More likely, it’s required to preserve the aerodynamics of the carrier vehicle. It probably could fly without it if they really went through an ambitious qualification process. The X-37 (which actually is a Boeing success story) flies this way and lands on a runway. So it’s not unheard of. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2023, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/656 "2023-03-07T04:10:20Z")
Space is hard: > **[Japan's maiden launch of H3 rocket fails during second stage flight -...](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2023/03/h3-debut-flight/)** > > JAXA and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries launched – at the second attempt – to maiden launch… I was watching the launch; they had an animation of the ground track that looked really strange, as it had a very sharp dog-leg. Some launches indeed perform dog-leg maneuvers, but this looked significantly sharper than most, like maybe there was a navigation or guidance fault of some kind. Could be the rocket failed even before main-engine cutoff. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2023, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/657 "2023-03-08T20:48:16Z")
Relativity Space tried to launch today: > **[Relativity Space scrubs first attempt to launch Terran 1 \[Updated\]](https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/03/relativity-space-will-attempt-to-become-a-real-rocket-company-today/)** > > Relativity Space is one of the more intriguing new space launch companies. They scrubbed at the last minute, though. Not sure when they’ll try again. Their risk tolerance for this flight seems to be on the high side–from the article: > In recognition that this is purely a test flight, Relativity has put no customer payloads on the flight. And the mission has a lighthearted name, “Good Luck, Have Fun,” that acknowledges there is a bit of a hold-my-beer aspect to this test flight. But still, it’s good to see them scrub instead of pushing forward with go fever. I’m not sure this will get them through the first flight curse, but I certainly wish them luck. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2023, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/658 "2023-03-08T21:23:51Z")
Was it the wind? The video I saw looked awfully windy for a rocket launch. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2023, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/659 "2023-03-08T21:25:17Z")
Something about an out of bounds temperature reading on the upper stage methane tank. Not clear if it was a sensor glitch or something real. Nothing to do with winds, as best I can tell. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2023, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/660 "2023-03-09T00:48:35Z")
I guess it’ll be a few days before the next attempt: > > > Relativity Space @relativityspace That’s a little surprising. Needing a few days for propellant “conditioning” seems incompatible with a high launch cadence. I’m not sure why they can’t just drain the tanks and quickly get the prop back to the right temperature. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2023, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/661 "2023-03-09T04:10:29Z")
Always with the launch windows. > **[Launch Window](https://xkcd.com/2746/)** > > "Confirmed, we have to scrub." "Ugh, okay. I'll get the bucket and sponge." [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703.md?page=32) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703.md?page=34)