# The Great Ongoing Space Exploration Thread

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703>\
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\
**Tags:** science-math\
**Created:** [November 16, 2020, 12:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703 "2020-11-16T12:18:17Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 36

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**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\
**Post date:** [March 28, 2023, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/702 "2023-03-28T17:03:54Z")

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> **[Scientists erupt at NASA gutting funding for crucial Venus mission](https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/28/23658646/nasa-venus-funding-scientist-reaction-volcano-veritas)**
>
> The mood in the planetary science community is grim.

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**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\
**Post date:** [March 31, 2023, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/703 "2023-03-31T02:22:52Z")

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> **[Virgin Orbit fails to secure funding, will cease operations and lay off...](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/30/virgin-orbit-funding-ceasing-operations-layoffs.html)**
>
> Virgin Orbit CEO Dan Hart gave employees an update in an all-hands meeting on Thursday, according to audio obtained by CNBC.

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**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\
**Post date:** [March 31, 2023, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/704 "2023-03-31T02:37:38Z")

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There will be a lot of fallout and shutdowns in non-traditional space launch in the next couple of years.

Which will be small potatoes compared to the shakeout coming in the burgeoning AAM / eVTOL space. Lotta true believers (and a couple of the inevitable scamsters) burning through early stage funding rounds in a world where late stage funding is now far more scarce than two years-ago’s predictions would have led one to expect now. Gonna be a bloodbath.

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**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\
**Post date:** [March 31, 2023, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/705 "2023-03-31T21:29:31Z")

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The decade of ultra-low interest caused a lot of ‘malinvestment’. A lot of ventures are going to fail, and a lot of Silicon Valley companies that went on hiring sprees in the last few years are either laying off most of those new hires, or have already laid them off.

And yeah, all those stupid ideas that got huge funding in the past decade are going to go under now that the money has dried up. Virgin Hyperloop is gone, and now Virgin Orbit. Hyperloop One is gone. Arrivo, another hyperloop startup, is also gone now.

And all those low-interest T-Bills and bonds used to fund extravagent spending are now clogging up banks, pension funds, etc. Every time interest goes up a point, another $100 billion or so in unrealized losses accrues to all those debt instruments. Banks are sitting on $600 billion in unrealized losses from bonds alone, from what I recall.

But the next shoe to drop is probably commercial real estate, and the mortgage-backed-securities that funded their purchase. The fed itself is one of the biggest real estate holders around now, and they are going to lose a lot of money that either have to be printed and cause more inflation, or extracted from the federal budget without adding to the deficit.

But sometimes a recession or credit tightening is a good thing. These companies wasted billions of dollars, and if interest rates had not been close to zero some of them would never have started in the first place. Many of them were just grifters holding out their hats to catch the raining money.

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**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\
**Post date:** [March 31, 2023, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/706 "2023-03-31T23:26:40Z")

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> [@Sam\_Stone](#):
>
> The fed itself is one of the biggest real estate holders around now, and they are going to lose a lot of money that either have to be printed and cause more inflation, or extracted from the federal budget without adding to the deficit.

Not sure I understand this. The Fed has a peculiar status. It’s a for-profit corporation that’s 100% owned by the US Government. It doesn’t get any funding from the federal budget. Instead, it pays the Government a dividend. So if it loses money, then there’s no dividend that quarter. OK, not getting a dividend will increase the deficit, but that dividend is usually small in comparison to the total budget.

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**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\
**Post date:** [March 31, 2023, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/707 "2023-03-31T23:48:55Z")

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> **[The Fed’s Operating Losses Become Taxpayer Losses](https://fedsoc.org/commentary/fedsoc-blog/the-fed-s-operating-losses-become-taxpayer-losses)**
>
> The year 2023 is shaping up to be a financially challenging one for the Federal Reserve System. The...

> [@](#):
>
> The Fed is on track to post its first annual operating loss since 1915. The annual loss will be large, perhaps $80 billion or more, and this cash loss does not count the massive unrealized mark-to-market losses on the Fed’s fixed-rate securities portfolio. An operating loss of $80 billion would, if properly accounted for, leave the Fed with negative capital of $38 billion at year-end 2023. If interest rates stay at their current level or higher, the Fed’s operating losses will impact the federal budget for several years, requiring new tax revenues to offset the continuing loss of billions of dollars in Fed’s former remittances to the U.S. Treasury.

The $80 billion is just the cash it has to cough up. The Fed is also sitting on 1.1 trillion in unrealized losses from its other holdings, including the real estate I mentioned.

The Fed claims that it will make this money back in the future. But then, the fed claims a lot of things that aren’t true, like inflation being temporary. And until recently, that it would never lose money.

If interest rates go up more, all these numbers get larger.

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**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\
**Post date:** [April 1, 2023, 4:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/708 "2023-04-01T04:47:42Z")

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Can we not hijack a space exploration thread with Sam’s obsession about interest and government debt please? It’s definitely bordering on political and this is not a political thread. Thanks.

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**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\
**Post date:** [April 1, 2023, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/709 "2023-04-01T05:14:08Z")

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Yeah, I was answering the previous message and forgot we were in the space thread. Sorry about that.

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**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\
**Post date:** [April 2, 2023, 7:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/710 "2023-04-02T07:15:24Z")

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> **[SpaceX moves Starship to launch site, and liftoff could be just days away](https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/04/spacex-moves-starship-to-launch-site-and-liftoff-could-be-just-days-away/)**
>
> No fooling—Starship rolled back to the launch pad on April 1.

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**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\
**Post date:** [April 2, 2023, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/711 "2023-04-02T14:29:40Z")

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There are daily marine notice windows running from April 6th to April 12th. Maybe just placeholders as the FAA licence is still to be granted.

[![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsmlhjOWAAI0Jru?format=png&name=900x900) ](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsmlhjOWAAI0Jru?format=png&name=900x900)

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**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\
**Post date:** [April 4, 2023, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/712 "2023-04-04T16:12:46Z")

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> **[Virgin Orbit formally enters bankruptcy, seeking a buyer](https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/04/virgin-orbit-formally-enters-bankruptcy-seeking-a-buyer/)**
>
> Branson further cements his position as a "senior" creditor.

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**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\
**Post date:** [April 6, 2023, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/713 "2023-04-06T22:39:25Z")

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Looks like we could be getting close!

In other news, this is an interesting space venture:

> **[A New Zealand company has started flying a rocket-powered spaceplane](https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/04/a-new-zealand-company-has-started-flying-a-rocket-powered-spaceplane/)**
>
> "Once we get our certification, we're allowed to fly as frequently as we want."

Basically, they are building a small, cheap, unmanned, suborbital reusable sounding rocket for small payloads. It’s a pretty good idea, if they can find a market for it.

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**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\
**Post date:** [April 6, 2023, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/714 "2023-04-06T23:55:51Z")

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To clarify:

> “It’s only going to be capable of carrying a few kilograms of payload,” he said. “So you’re not really launching anything. There’s no second stage you can carry with five kilograms. But I do think that what’s really unexplored is the suborbital market in this category.”
> 
> What Powell means is that there is currently no capability to do regular, repeatable research in the atmosphere from about 30 km up to 100 km. With the Mk-II Aurora, the company seeks to be able to fly the vehicle twice a day, offering a platform for applications such as environmental research in the mesosphere and thermosphere.
> 
> “Above 30 km is too high for balloons and too low for satellites,” he said. “Some researchers refer to it as the ignore-o-sphere. We know it has large implications on climate models and weather models. So there is theorized to be a lot of value in understanding this part of the atmosphere better. So we’ll probably just start sticking some pretty basic data gathering payloads onboard just because they don’t weigh very much.”

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**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\
**Post date:** [April 8, 2023, 9:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/715 "2023-04-08T09:30:37Z")

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That probably won’t buff out:  
[![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FtJ2zkQXoAQQT1d?format=jpg&name=large) ](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FtJ2zkQXoAQQT1d?format=jpg&name=large)

The immediate aftermath of a structural test of the upcoming Centaur V (upper stage for the Vulcan rocket).

Eh, it’s fine. That’s what tests are for. This was just a little more energetic than usual.

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**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\
**Post date:** [April 8, 2023, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/716 "2023-04-08T16:45:31Z")

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More on this:

> **[Vulcan Experiences Anomaly During Test, Maiden Flight Delayed - TLP News](https://tlpnetwork.com/news/2023/03/vulcan-experiences-anomaly-during-test-maiden-flight-delayed)**
>
> ULA has experienced an anomaly during testing of a Vulcan Centaur 2nd stage, and an investigation is underway.

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**Author:** ![Ponderoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ponderoid/32/19221_2.png) [@Ponderoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ponderoid)\
**Post date:** [April 9, 2023, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/717 "2023-04-09T01:32:17Z")

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Remember, it’s not an explosion, it’s a Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly.

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**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\
**Post date:** [April 14, 2023, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/718 "2023-04-14T14:45:55Z")

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JUICE (JUpiter ICy-moon Explorer) has launched:

> **[Europe successfully launches JUICE mission to study Jupiter's icy moons](https://www.space.com/europe-launches-juice-mission-jupiter-ocean-moons)**
>
> But be patient: JUICE won't get to the Jovian system until 2031.

Brian

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**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\
**Post date:** [April 16, 2023, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/719 "2023-04-16T00:57:54Z")

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Starship launch officially scheduled for Monday, April 17. 2.5 hr launch window opens at 8am.

> **[SpaceX's 1st orbital Starship launch: How it will work](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-first-orbital-launch-explainer)**
>
> The test flight will launch from South Texas, head over the Gulf of Mexico and ultimately splash down near Hawaii.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\
**Post date:** [April 16, 2023, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/720 "2023-04-16T01:13:15Z")

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Cool!

I’ll be flying from Central America to Texas during the launch window. If they’re delayed, I may be too, or rerouted over the Mexican mainland to stay out of their way.

If they go early in their launch window, which I expect is their plan, they’ll be long since splashed down or blown up by the time I get near where they were.

But if “stuff” holds them up for a couple hours. … I’ve seen two Shuttle launches and one SpaceX Falcon launch from the air. It’d be an awesome treat to see Starship’s maiden voyage from altitude. That’s a once in a career experience.

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**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\
**Post date:** [April 16, 2023, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-ongoing-space-exploration-thread/925703/721 "2023-04-16T01:29:05Z")

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“SpaceX’s satellite constellation can provide unprecedented volumes of telemetry and enable communications during atmospheric entry when ionized plasma around the spacecraft inhibits conventional telemetry frequencies. These tests will demonstrate its ability to improve the efficiency and safety of future orbital spaceflight missions,” the filing reads.  
Outstanding!

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