# The Great Un-Fork Hillary Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 12, 2015, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458 "2015-04-12T00:17:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2015, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/181 "2015-04-16T23:30:31Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > But Clinton’s probably stuck around 47-48. Opinions of her have been fixed for some time as a candidate for President. If a Republican can merely achieve McCain-like popularity circa Oct. 2008, they’ll do just fine. And 60s isn’t out of the realm of possibility if it’s a fresh face that runs a great campaign. “A fresh face that runs a great campaign”? Are the Republicans going to nominate a unicorn? If you’re going to posit hypotheticals like that, could you at least try to link them to reality? Who is even remotely in the wings on the GOP side who qualifies as a “fresh face” capable of running a “great campaign” at this stage in the game? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2015, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/182 "2015-04-16T23:35:33Z")
Marco Rubio and Rand Paul are both capable of it. Both could also fall flat on their faces. Huckabee also has that much likeability, potentially. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2015, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/183 "2015-04-16T23:37:18Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Marco Rubio and Rand Paul are both capable of it. Both could also fall flat on their faces. Huckabee also has that much likeability, potentially. LOL. Not a chance (IMO). They’ll have serious trouble getting to 50. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2015, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/184 "2015-04-17T00:03:20Z")
That assumes that they’ll ever get to the point where enough voters have an opinion of them. They all CAN win the nomination, but chances are only one of them will last long enough to become a nationally known figure. I will agree that neither Jeb nor Scott Walker will ever get to 60. Walker is just unlikeable and Jeb is held back by his name. Ah, shit, I’m in the Hillary thread. Sorry about that. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2015, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/185 "2015-04-17T00:24:40Z")
Huckabee is not a “fresh face” and has not demonstrated the ability to campaign well; lately he’s been pushing the “liberals all live in a bubble and aren’t the REAL America” which is more geared toward selling his book than getting votes. He’s just playing along to remain relevant and pump up his TV pundit cred. And both Paul and Rubio will have to dramatically step up their game if they want those kind of numbers, and both have already had some significant flubs. There’s time for them to bring it back but they’d have to change dramatically from what they’ve been doing so far. Remember that McCain pre-Palin still commanded a certain amount of respect from the undecideds in the middle who remembered his earlier campaign. But then he threw his lot in with the far-right and acquired a millstone of a Veep, and they all fled again. To get the 60s - to pick up support in the middle ground - the candidate has to at least appear to be moderate and the environment now in the GOP is far more anti-moderate than it was in 2008. Until the GOP free themselves from the far-right/Tea Party wing, they’re seriously unlikely to see those numbers again. HIllary, however, IS well-placed to grab the middle. She’ll probably piss off the leftward contigent but they’ll likely hold their noses and vote for her anyway to avoid a GOP victory. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2015, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/186 "2015-04-17T01:26:28Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Sure it’s weak, but it’s just more in the drip, drip, drip of negative stories. CNN has that prominently displayed on their site, with the headline that Clinton “misrepresented”. Alone, it does nothing. Combined with everything else, it just further cements the impression voters have of her. There are people who made up their minds about Hillary Clinton a couple of decades ago and they’ll eat this up. But it’s not something that’s going to convince anyone new. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2015, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/187 "2015-04-17T01:30:09Z")
Doesn’t have to. At 48%, she’s not where she needs to be. Are there enough undecideds to get her to the majority she needs? ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2015, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/188 "2015-04-17T01:34:25Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > You’ll notice that almost all the Republicans have something like 30-50% of voters with no opinion. If they make a good impression, Clinton will be left in the dust, since 45% already don’t like her and aren’t likely to feel any better about her between now and Nov. 2016. But Clinton’s a known and defined quantity. It’s not like people are going to decide in the next year that they don’t like her. The 45% that don’t like her now is pretty much all the people who will ever not like her. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2015, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/189 "2015-04-17T01:48:10Z")
And the same goes for the 46-48% who do like her. Her success or failure will depend on the very few still on the fence. Few, but enough to tip an election. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2015, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/190 "2015-04-17T03:14:35Z")
So let’s consider the points raised by Nate Silver. Of those potentially in the running with reasonable name recognition Clinton’s favorability rating is significantly the … if you don’t want to call it “best” then at least the “least poor” - she is a net positive compared to Bush’s net negative of 14 points. As many feel unfavorably to him as to Clinton but many fewer positive. Now of those who are not well known … be real. These are not candidates who any point left of moderately far right will find “favorable” and some will appeal to only one and not another subset of that moderately far right grouping (the difference between a Paul and a Cruz and a Carson). Yup there is about 9% of the population that will decide the election’s popular vote. 4 out of 9 plus one decide that Hillary is the less poor choice compared to the GOP standard bearer she wins the popular vote (and likely the election); if 5 out of 9 of them (plus one) prefer the GOP standard bear is the less poor choice then she loses the popular vote. A solid GOP candidate could whoop a Hillary Clinton and win 6 of those 9 undecideds. Assuming (s)he was not too damaged by a primary process that forced them to pander to the farther Right so much as to raise their unfavorability with the center. None of the current crop could do it even if they did not have to deal with that obstacle. With it they are dead men walking. Their only hope is that the HRC campaign somehow implodes upon her. And that could happen. But not too likely. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2015, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/191 "2015-04-17T03:22:46Z")
Look at this another way … Silver characterizes Clintons net favorability as “almost as if voters are dispensing with all the formalities and evaluating her as they might when she’s on the ballot next November.” Against a generic Republican candidate. And against that generic republican candidate she ekes out ahead. Please remember that the wartless generic candidate always does better than any real candidate who has features to dislike. To me, assuming no fatal errors by Team Clinton, the main thing to watch this cycle will be the machinations of the media to try to keep it a horse race. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2015, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/192 "2015-04-17T03:40:09Z")
Which they are doing with daily negative stories about her. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2015, 9:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/193 "2015-04-17T09:32:52Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Doesn’t have to. At 48%, she’s not where she needs to be. Are there enough undecideds to get her to the majority she needs? I lot of people _don’t like Hillary_ but will still vote for her. Like many Dopers who have chimed in. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2015, 9:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/194 "2015-04-17T09:35:37Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I lot of people _don’t like Hillary_ but will still vote for her. Like many Dopers who have chimed in. Yes, this is the danger of only looking at one candidate’s numbers in isolation. It’s the “I don’t have to outrun the bear; I only have to outrun you” thing again - Clinton doesn’t have to be beloved by all as long as she’s hated less by most. ---
**Author:** ![Mr\_Quatro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/bc8723/32.png) [@Mr\_Quatro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr_Quatro)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2015, 10:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/195 "2015-04-17T10:58:25Z")
What happens to Hillary after the first town hall meeting when someone in the audience stands up and says, “What would you have done different in the last six and half years if you had of won the POTUS instead of President Obama”? Will the GOP be able to follow up effectively on her answer? I can’t wait to hear her answer … I hope it’s not like Putin’s town hall meetings lol ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2015, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/196 "2015-04-17T13:43:29Z")
> [@Mr\_Quatro](#): > > What happens to Hillary after the first town hall meeting when someone in the audience stands up and says, > > “What would you have done different in the last six and half years if you had of won the POTUS instead of President Obama”? If it’s like 99.95% of such events and debates, she (or any candidate) would say “That’s an important question and before I answer it, I’d like to go back to this other question and run out the clock giving my talking points rather than actually answering anything YOU want answered…” ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2015, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/197 "2015-04-17T13:58:01Z")
By the way, anyone thinking the “Clinton will be Obama’s third term” thing is just right-wing noise - [nope](http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/for-better-or-worse-clinton-is-likely-stuck-running-for-obamas-third-term/). The numbers have spoken. Which IMO suggests that she’d be better off getting out in front of it and endorsing the successes of the Obama administration rather than running away from them as the midtermers did last year (and as Gore did to Clinton’s successes in 2000). If she tries to put too much space between herself and Obama she’ll end up running a defensive campaign, allowing her opponent to tie her in knots just by saying she’s like Obama. As indeed happened to Gore. A more offense-based approach where she points out all the things the current administration has accomplished - with Obamacare front and center - will probably serve her better; the people who hate Obama already hate her and won’t change, and everyone else will be reminded that the Democrats achieved some good stuff in the face of unprecedented opposition. It’s a ballsy strategy but she’s pretty ballsy. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2015, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/198 "2015-04-17T14:00:54Z")
If you do not think that there is a whole team preparing the answer for that and many other predictable questions and prepping her mightily you are not thinking too hard. It is a major marketing question: how much do you distance yourself from the current administration and how much do you attach yourself to it? Gore had gone the distancing himself route and it did not play out too well. Options: Refuse to second guess with 20/20 hindsight as unhelpful and answer with forward looking responses. Confirm that there were indeed vigorous discussions of her expressing her views while she served and that her perspective did not always carry the day. Reference only those that are already public record however. Again refocus on the future. Honest critiques and compliments drawing compare and contrasts. Answer only in the broadest vaguest terms. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2015, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/199 "2015-04-17T14:06:42Z")
Actually it is pretty easy to find things already [in the public record](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/06/09/the-6-big-issues-where-hillary-clinton-and-barack-oabma-disagree/) that will make a large part of her answer since she wrote about them in a book. > [@](#): > > Clinton says she wanted to push for an orderly transition from power for then-Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak – whom she had known for a long time – but the Obama administration instead called for him to step down amid Arab Spring protests… > > … Clinton says that she differed with Obama on his push for a 2009 freeze on the construction of new Israeli settlements in disputed regions. Clinton suggests she wouldn’t have adopted such a hard-line stance and says that it increased tensions between the two sides. … > > … While Clinton was a supporter of Obama’s troop surge in Afghanistan, which was announced in 2009, she said Obama instituted something she wasn’t so comfortable with: An 18-month deadline for starting to bring those troops home. > > Clinton says the cutoff was “a starker deadline than I had hoped for, and I worried that it might send the wrong signal to friend and foe alike.” > > “Although I strongly believed in the need for a time-bound surge and a speedy transition, I thought there was a benefit to playing our cards closer to our chests,” Clinton writes. … > > … Clinton definitely casts herself as tougher with Vladimir Putin than some in the White House, including Obama. She says she warned about tough times ahead with the Russian president when she departed as secretary of state in 2013. > > “Strength and resolve were the only language Putin would understand,” she writes. “We should send him a message that his actions have consequence while reassuring our allies that the United States will stand up for them.” … > > … Clinton says she entertained the idea of arming a carefully vetted group of moderate Syrian rebels in that nation’s conflict, acknowledging that such things are always dicey and risk helping extremists, but arguing that it could have been done right. > > Clinton calls this “the least bad option” available in that country, but that Obama decided to go a different direction. … > > … Clinton having voted for the use of force in Iraq and Obama having spoken out against the war in its early days. It’s pretty much what gave Obama the opening he needed to pull the upset. > > In the years since, of course, their positions on this issue have merged somewhat. And in her new book, Clinton reiterates that she cast the wrong vote, saying, “I still got it wrong. Plain and simple.” … ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2015, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/200 "2015-04-17T15:38:14Z")
She won’t be JUST like Obama, obviously. She’ll be more hawkish, more friendly to Wall Street, and in general I just have more confidence in her leadership abilities. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458.md?page=11)