# The Great Un-Fork Hillary Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 12, 2015, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458 "2015-04-12T00:17:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 21
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2015, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/401 "2015-04-29T16:33:04Z")
These are the people who could win, IMO: Marco Rubio Mike Huckabee Scott Walker Chris Christie John Kasich Rand Paul All of them come from working class backgrounds, so that’s an advantage right there. All of them represent change. Many of them are quite young. Some of them have executive experience and can point to real accomplishments. None of them have Clinton’s documented record of dishonesty and playing by their own rules. Some of them are much more charismatic than Clinton. Rubio is a superstar when he’s on his game. Huckabee has always been an engaging talker. Christie’s always had a weird “tough guy” charisma although I’m not sure how much that helps against “tough lady” Clinton. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2015, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/402 "2015-04-29T16:38:12Z")
Dreaming is free. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2015, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/403 "2015-04-29T17:00:24Z")
It’s looking increasingly likely that Hillary Clinton will never be President, although I’m not sure enough to make a prediction just yet. Once I see her trailing consistently though, stick a fork in her. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2015, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/404 "2015-04-29T17:03:13Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It’s looking increasingly likely that Hillary Clinton will never be President, although I’m not sure enough to make a prediction just yet. Once I see her trailing consistently though, stick a fork in her. You’re making me feel confident about her chances. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2015, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/405 "2015-04-29T17:04:30Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If Jeb Bush was going to be the nominee, he’d be leading right now. He has the most name recognition and the most money. The only way he comes back is if like Romney, all the other candidates disqualify themselves. Romney couldn’t win in this field either. Bush will not. > > Call that a prediction. Jeb Bush will not be the nominee. If he can’t even outpoll a fellow Floridian he has no chance. And I say he will. So one of us will get to say “Neener, neener- I told you so!” ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2015, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/406 "2015-04-29T17:05:27Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > These are the people who could win, IMO: > > Marco Rubio > Mike Huckabee > Scott Walker > Chris Christie > John Kasich > Rand Paul > > . Not a bad list, I agree Ol Bridge Scandal Christie has a chance. Walker doesn’t. Huckster doesn’t. Perhaps one of the others will pull it off. Time will tell ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2015, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/407 "2015-04-29T17:06:36Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It’s looking increasingly likely that Hillary Clinton will never be President, although I’m not sure enough to make a prediction just yet. Once I see her trailing consistently though, stick a fork in her. What are you basing this on? Is it still that she trailed one potential republican candidate in one poll of one state? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2015, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/408 "2015-04-29T17:19:00Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > Not a bad list, I agree Ol Bridge Scandal Christie has a chance. Walker doesn’t. Huckster doesn’t. Perhaps one of the others will pull it off. Time will tell Walker is leading most polls, so by definition he has a chance. I don’t think you can ever predict with certainty that the first place person won’t continue to be the first place person. Huck has never shown much appeal beyond the evangelical base, but he’s engaging and non-threatening and that always counts for something. He’s got a good chance of winning Iowa and will compete in SC. If he wins both IA and SC he’ll be a contender. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2015, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/409 "2015-04-29T17:23:19Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > What are you basing this on? Is it still that she trailed one potential republican candidate in one poll of one state? I’m basing it on two things: 1. She’s polling well under 50% now against relative unknowns. 2. She’s got no history of coming from behind, and it’s directly related to her ultra cautious campaigning style. If she gets behind, she probably stays behind. Since she’ still leading by 3-5 points, I’m not making any predictions yet, but once we see a couple of reliable polls showing her trailing multiple candidates, I think it’ll be pretty much over for her. I don’t think she’ll even win the nomination at that point because I don’t think the DNC powers that be will back her any longer. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2015, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/410 "2015-04-29T17:28:39Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I don’t think you can ever predict with certainty that the first place person won’t continue to be the first place person. Look at the graph on [this page](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html) at RCP. I think the only thing one can be certain about is that the person in the lead will not continue to lead. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2015, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/411 "2015-04-29T17:35:21Z")
Walker is leading in IA and NH and is within 2 in the national polling. Given how small those leads are, sure, he could very well not be in such a great position for long, but since he’s first right now I wouldn’t be willing to say he has no chance. That just seems ridiculous to me, declaring that a first place candidate has no chance. It’s why I won’t say Clinton is beaten just yet, even though everyone knows her and she can’t muster above 46% in registered voter polls against likely opponents. But as long as other candidates muster even less support, she has to be assumed to still be in contention. If say, Marco Rubio becomes more well known by the fall and is ahead of her 48-42, then I think her chances are done. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2015, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/412 "2015-04-29T17:37:47Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Walker is leading in IA and NH and is within 2 in the national polling. Given how small those leads are, sure, he could very well not be in such a great position for long, but since he’s first right now I wouldn’t be willing to say he has no chance. That just seems ridiculous to me, declaring that a first place candidate has no chance. It’s why I won’t say Clinton is beaten just yet, even though everyone knows her and she can’t muster above 46% in registered voter polls against likely opponents. But as long as other candidates muster even less support, she has to be assumed to still be in contention. If say, Marco Rubio becomes more well known by the fall and is ahead of her 48-42, then I think her chances are done. Wasn’t Herman Cain leading for awhile last time? It means nothing. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2015, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/413 "2015-04-29T17:47:15Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Walker is leading in IA and NH and is within 2 in the national polling. Given how small those leads are, sure, he could very well not be in such a great position for long, but since he’s first right now I wouldn’t be willing to say he has no chance. That just seems ridiculous to me, declaring that a first place candidate has no chance. It’s why I won’t say Clinton is beaten just yet, even though everyone knows her and she can’t muster above 46% in registered voter polls against likely opponents. But as long as other candidates muster even less support, she has to be assumed to still be in contention. If say, Marco Rubio becomes more well known by the fall and is ahead of her 48-42, then I think her chances are done. People know Hillary. People don’t know Walker. When Walker becomes more known and his extremism is brought to light, he will wind up winning fewer states than McCain. If he got the nomination, that is. Which he won’t. It will be Jeb. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2015, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/414 "2015-04-29T17:56:27Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > Wasn’t Herman Cain leading for awhile last time? It means nothing. Herman Cain didn’t lose first place for no particular reason. He lost first place because allegations about him and sexual harassment came out. Walker may very well have no chance, but there has to be a reason, something that is currently not known, for that to make sense. Rubio might actually be in 1st right now though, since every poll since his official entrance says he is. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2015, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/415 "2015-04-29T17:58:47Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > People know Hillary. People don’t know Walker. When Walker becomes more known and his extremism is brought to light, he will wind up winning fewer states than McCain. If he got the nomination, that is. Which he won’t. It will be Jeb. I agree that Walker is a candidate that might pose general election problems. There are better choices. It won’t be Jeb though. And it might not even be Clinton. Once Clinton appears vulnerable, everything changes. Her big lead among Democrats is keeping other big names out. If that starts to degrade, we’ll definitely see Biden and might even see people like Howard Dean or Mark Warner. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2015, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/416 "2015-04-29T18:11:12Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Since she’ still leading by 3-5 points, I’m not making any predictions yet, but once we see a couple of reliable polls showing her trailing multiple candidates, I think it’ll be pretty much over for her. But what if we don’t see a couple of reliable polls showing her trailing multiple candidates? When should we expect to see evidence of this freefall? How long must we wait? New [Survey USA poll of likely North Carolina voters](http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollPrint.aspx?g=e12280bf-3fbd-4bb8-876a-b484c2a95cb4&d=0) released today. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2015, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/417 "2015-04-29T18:12:51Z")
If we don’t see such polls, then she’s obviously still got a good chance. If I was sure we’d see such polls, I’d make the prediction right now. I THINK we will see her trailing most Republican candidates by October, but I could be wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2015, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/418 "2015-04-29T18:16:27Z")
So is she in a freefall or not? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2015, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/419 "2015-04-29T18:20:35Z")
She is. But she might hit bottom still leading. Up until late February, she’s got more double digit leads than single digit leads and her smallest lead is 5 points. Since that time, she’s got only one double digit lead among registered voters, and four single digit leads, three of those below 5 points. [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general\_election\_rubio\_vs\_clinton-3767.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_rubio_vs_clinton-3767.html) ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2015, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/420 "2015-04-29T18:25:44Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > She is. But she might hit bottom still leading. Sucks to be you, huh? 😉 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458.md?page=20) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458.md?page=22)