# The Great Un-Fork Hillary Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 12, 2015, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458 "2015-04-12T00:17:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 26
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2015, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/501 "2015-05-06T23:21:57Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > I was just looking at that NH poll and it looks like you may have a piece evidence supporting your hypothesis. > > There are a couple of weird things about that poll. Sample size is sort of small (355) which is not that weird. The really weird thing is that Dartmouth polls have way more undecideds than other pollsters polling New Hampshire, I’m not sure what would cause that. Perhaps the word the question differently. Yeah, I’ve always found their polls to be odd and predictive of nothing whatsoever. But I did like them. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2015, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/502 "2015-05-06T23:37:08Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Yeah, I’ve always found their polls to be odd and predictive of nothing whatsoever. But I did like them. Birds of a feather. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2015, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/503 "2015-05-07T17:30:33Z")
256 days to the Iowa Caucus and Clinton still polling at 60%. [Quinnipiac poll](http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ia/ia05072015_Igrwf25.pdf). ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2015, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/504 "2015-05-08T00:31:07Z")
At this point in 2004, Joe Lieberman led. At this point in 2008, Hillary Clinton led. Granted, 60% is a big lead, but I still think Clinton’s support even among Democrats is very soft. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2015, 12:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/505 "2015-05-08T12:01:33Z")
We have another NH poll, this time showing Clinton trailing all her Republican challengers(that they polled anyway) except for Ted Cruz, who she leads by 1. In a state Obama won twice. > **[PollingReport.com](https://pollingreport.com/)** > > PollingReport.com. A nonpartisan resource on trends in American public opinion. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2015, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/506 "2015-05-08T13:13:19Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > At this point in 2004, Joe Lieberman led. At this point in 2008, Hillary Clinton led. Granted, 60% is a big lead, but I still think Clinton’s support even among Democrats is very soft. > [@adaher](#): > > We have another NH poll, this time showing Clinton trailing all her Republican challengers(that they polled anyway) except for Ted Cruz, who she leads by 1. In a state Obama won twice. > > [http://pollingreport.com/](http://pollingreport.com/) To sum up: polls which show Clinton in the lead aren’t indicative because it’s too early, but polls which show Clinton as behind are entirely indicative. ---
**Author:** ![CannyDan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cannydan/32/548_2.png) [@CannyDan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CannyDan)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2015, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/507 "2015-05-08T15:05:32Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > To sum up: polls which show Clinton in the lead aren’t indicative because it’s too early, but polls which show Clinton as behind are entirely indicative. Hey, that’s exactly the way he called Obama - Romney 2012! Am I seeing a pattern? 😉 ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2015, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/508 "2015-05-08T15:33:24Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > We have another NH poll, this time showing Clinton trailing all her Republican challengers(that they polled anyway) except for Ted Cruz, who she leads by 1. In a state Obama won twice. > > [http://pollingreport.com/](http://pollingreport.com/) Please don’t bet more than a bottle of pop and/or a hamburger on the outcome of the election. You’re taking polls 18 months out between someone who has had mud smeared on her for the past 23 years to relative unknowns who have yet to face serious scrutiny. Not to mention you’re looking at about the two whitest states in the country. Even with the demographics, Obama won these states twice. Is there any reason why Hillary won’t do as well? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2015, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/509 "2015-05-08T15:34:20Z")
At what point was Obama trailing a Republican candidate in New Hampshire? ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2015, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/510 "2015-05-08T15:59:25Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > At what point was Obama trailing a Republican candidate in New Hampshire? Did they measure that far back in 2008? He was the heavy underdog to Hillary this time in 2007, I don’t know if they bothered to poll him vs. Republicans then. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2015, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/511 "2015-05-08T16:05:19Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > At what point was Obama trailing a Republican candidate in New Hampshire? [Lots of points](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_romney_vs_obama-2030.html). Notably through February and March of 2012 and as late as October 21, 2012. This stuff is pretty easy to look up. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2015, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/512 "2015-05-08T16:15:30Z")
Some directly comparable polls… Obama v McCain University of New Hampshire 4/25 - 4/30/2007 McCain +6 Obama v Romney WMUR/UNH 4/15 - 4/26/2011 Romney +7 ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2015, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/513 "2015-05-08T17:25:37Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > This stuff is pretty easy to look up. While this is true, it only applies if one is interested in seeing if any facts or data exist that might undercut one’s preconceived notions. Some people have a track record of frantically clinging to what they _want_ to be the case as opposed to acknowledging reality. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2015, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/514 "2015-05-08T18:32:58Z")
And doubling back into the perceived honesty issue … _assuming_ that the eventual GOP nominee survives their primary mud bath with a higher perceived honesty rating than HRC has at that point (a big big assumption) [here](http://www.nationaljournal.com/next-america/newsdesk/why-hillary-clinton-doesn-t-need-americans-to-trust-her-20150506) is an article saying what I said earlier but with more data! Even “character” voters do not decide on the one feature of character alone. Perceived leadership, competency, empathy … and a variety of other dimensions also contribute to what we think of as character. Bill was so high on those that perceived dishonesty on things like Whitewater just rolled off and many character voters chose him for those other dimensions. Hillary does not ooze empathy like he did … people believed he felt their pain and I doubt will believe her so much. But on perceived leadership ability and competency? At least for now she blows the GOP competition away. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 9:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/515 "2015-05-12T09:09:08Z")
I wonder how long Clinton can dodge the media? [http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/05/11/hillary-clinton-hasnt-answered-a-question-from-the-media-in-20-days/](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/05/11/hillary-clinton-hasnt-answered-a-question-from-the-media-in-20-days/) > [@](#): > > Welcome to day 29 of the Hillary Clinton 2016 presidential campaign! > > In those 29 days – including April 12, the day she announced, and today – Clinton has taken a total of eight questions from the press. That breaks out to roughly one question every 3.6 days. Of late, she’s taken even fewer questions than that. According to media reports, the last day Clinton answered a question was April 21 in New Hampshire; that means that she hasn’t taken a question from the media in 20 straight days. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 9:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/516 "2015-05-12T09:14:28Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I wonder how long Clinton can dodge the media? > > [http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/05/11/hillary-clinton-hasnt-answered-a-question-from-the-media-in-20-days/](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/05/11/hillary-clinton-hasnt-answered-a-question-from-the-media-in-20-days/) GWB managed it for eight years. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/517 "2015-05-12T16:34:16Z")
Once you’re elected you can get away with quite a bit. Getting elected without talking to the media is a pretty big challenge. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/518 "2015-05-12T16:36:21Z")
Whatever Clinton’s problems, apparently there’s always an excuse for why they won’t matter. She’s going to need a lot of excuses. ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/519 "2015-05-12T16:50:47Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Once you’re elected you can get away with quite a bit. In other words, IOKIYAR. 🆒 ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/520 "2015-05-12T17:01:24Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Whatever Clinton’s problems, apparently there’s always an excuse for why they won’t matter. She’s going to need a lot of excuses. It’s not a problem. It’s good strategy. There’s no good reason for her to come out and answer a million questions right now. Once the campaigns get into full swing there will be plenty of time for questions and answers and more adaher complaints about them but for now it’s early and why give people ammunition if you don’t have to. There’s a lot of time between now and when votes start getting cast. And my response would be the same for any of the GOP people that want to sit tight on the press for now. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458.md?page=25) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458.md?page=27)