# The Great Un-Fork Hillary Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 12, 2015, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458 "2015-04-12T00:17:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 27
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/521 "2015-05-12T17:31:05Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I wonder how long Clinton can dodge the media? > > [http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/05/11/hillary-clinton-hasnt-answered-a-question-from-the-media-in-20-days/](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/05/11/hillary-clinton-hasnt-answered-a-question-from-the-media-in-20-days/) There is no reason for her to be giving interviews now. Every answer you give is going to alienate somebody. Let the Republicans knock themselves out trying to outflank each other on the right and beat themselves up. The best thing Hillary can do know is pop some corn and enjoy the show. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/522 "2015-05-12T17:35:05Z")
Except the media is writing negative stories about her and her team is not responding effectively. Now they’ve decided to look into her and Bill’s siblings. That’s going to make for some fun stories over the next few days. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/523 "2015-05-12T17:37:48Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Except the media is writing negative stories about her and her team is not responding effectively. > > Now they’ve decided to look into her and Bill’s siblings. That’s going to make for some fun stories over the next few days. “the media” – I read a lot of “media” and I’m not seeing these stories. I’d much rather have her keep her mouth shut while the GOPers jump in front of the cameras and brag about how they’d also invade Iraq. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/524 "2015-05-12T17:38:23Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Except the media is writing negative stories about her and her team is not responding effectively. Your concern is noted. > [@](#): > > Now they’ve decided to look into her and Bill’s siblings. That’s going to make for some fun stories over the next few days. What happened to the Clinton Foundation scandals you were so recently convinced were going to break wide open? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/525 "2015-05-12T17:39:47Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Except the media is writing negative stories about her and her team is not responding effectively. I’ve seen no indication that “her team is not responding effectively”. So far the stories don’t seem to have done any significant damage at all. > [@](#): > > Now they’ve decided to look into her and Bill’s siblings. That’s going to make for some fun stories over the next few days. I’m sure much fun will be had, but I doubt anything politically substantive will be unearthed. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/526 "2015-05-12T17:40:11Z")
The stories are further details, since the Clinton foundation didn’t just make Bill and Hillary rich. From that noted conservative fire breathing source the NY Times: [http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ties-of-hillary-clinton’s-brother-invite-scrutiny/ar-BBjzVGd?srcref=rss](http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ties-of-hillary-clinton%E2%80%99s-brother-invite-scrutiny/ar-BBjzVGd?srcref=rss) ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/527 "2015-05-12T17:40:49Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Except the media is writing negative stories about her and her team is not responding effectively. > > Now they’ve decided to look into her and Bill’s siblings. That’s going to make for some fun stories over the next few days. You seem to forget we’re over a year before the election heats up. Very few people are paying much attention, and those people are probably already pro or anti Hillary to an extent they don’t care about these “negative stories.” ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/528 "2015-05-12T17:42:08Z")
Possibly. So where is she going to get the extra 5-6% she needs that she doesn’t have now to win the election if minds are already made up? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/529 "2015-05-12T17:44:58Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Possibly. So where is she going to get the extra 5-6% she needs that she doesn’t have now to win the election if minds are already made up? Right now she’s significantly ahead of all the Republican candidates. There’s no “extra” needed. That’s not to say that she’s destined to win – there’s still a campaign. But the polling, right now, indicates that she’s got a big lead. If the election were today, Nate Silver would heavily lean towards Hillary. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/530 "2015-05-12T18:42:10Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Possibly. So where is she going to get the extra 5-6% she needs that she doesn’t have now to win the election if minds are already made up? What you seem to be assuming is that everybody not currently declaring as being for Hillary will default to vote for the Republican nominee. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/531 "2015-05-12T18:42:54Z")
Current RCP averages against the top five Republican contenders. [Clinton 52.0 Walker 41.5](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_walker_vs_clinton-3762.html) [Clinton 49.1 Bush 40.7](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_bush_vs_clinton-3827.html) [Clinton 48.7 Paul 41.0](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_paul_vs_clinton-3825.html) [Clinton 49.1 Rubio 41.9](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_rubio_vs_clinton-3767.html) [Clinton 51.4 Cruz 39.7](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_cruz_vs_clinton-4034.html) ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/532 "2015-05-12T18:45:16Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > What you seem to be assuming is that everybody not currently declaring as being for Hillary will default to vote for the Republican nominee. Remember, you’re saying that to a guy who, to this day, thinks that wanting ACA to go farther than it does is actually \*opposing \*it. So he’s consistent. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/533 "2015-05-12T18:47:24Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > What you seem to be assuming is that everybody not currently declaring as being for Hillary will default to vote for the Republican nominee. This. There’s a percentage of Democratic voters who are holding out for Bernie and/or Warren. There’s also an O’Malley contingent, and some Webbies out there. In a presidential race, Democrats vote, and they’re not going to be voting for JEB or Walker or whoever ends up being the last Clown in the Car. They’re going to converge on Clinton on election day. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/534 "2015-05-12T18:48:42Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Current RCP averages against the top five Republican contenders.[Clinton 49.1 Bush 40.7](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_bush_vs_clinton-3827.html) Yeah but Hillary only has 49.1%! There are still 11.2% undecided so if they all go to Bush, he wins 50.9-49.1! ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/535 "2015-05-12T19:45:03Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Current RCP averages against the top five Republican contenders. > > [Clinton 52.0 Walker 41.5](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_walker_vs_clinton-3762.html) > [Clinton 49.1 Bush 40.7](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_bush_vs_clinton-3827.html) > [Clinton 48.7 Paul 41.0](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_paul_vs_clinton-3825.html) > [Clinton 49.1 Rubio 41.9](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_rubio_vs_clinton-3767.html) > [Clinton 51.4 Cruz 39.7](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_cruz_vs_clinton-4034.html) I’m sure _someone_ will be along shortly to tell us how horribly skewed those polls are. Or how being _ahead_ is actually being _behind_. Or something else equally nonsensical. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2015, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/536 "2015-05-13T00:54:51Z")
No but again how early it is. Polls can easily swing, and in the past often have swung, by more than 10 points in fairly short time frames … and back again … depending on news cycles and missteps. 60 points up, 50 points up even … that means something. 10ish points either way before we’ve even had all the likely candidates throw hats in the ring? Well within the range of noise. I know this is the great un-fork Hillary thread but it is not quite yet time to fork a to-be-determined GOP nominee as I get the sense that some are wont to do. Whoever it is has many fundamentals against them and is definitely less than even money, but not yet “done.” ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2015, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/537 "2015-05-13T15:09:51Z")
My position is, and has been, that Clinton will get the Dem nomination but that the general election is too close to call this far out. This is a data driven prediction and I will argue against anyone who doesn’t have supporting evidence or misrepresents the evidence that exists. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2015, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/538 "2015-05-13T16:55:36Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > My position is, and has been, that Clinton will get the Dem nomination but that the general election is too close to call this far out. This is a data driven prediction and I will argue against anyone who doesn’t have supporting evidence or misrepresents the evidence that exists. I certainly agree Clinton does not have a lock on the general election; it is indeed way to early to make that call. I am actually not 100% that she even gets the nomination. After all, in 2008 it was assumed she would be the nominee and she managed to lose. I’m simply pointing out, this would hardly be the first time facts and polling data are discounted, ignored or misinterpreted because it doesn’t fit someone’s preferred narrative. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2015, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/539 "2015-05-13T17:13:50Z")
Once again I will point out that the only similarity between 2008 and 2016 is that Clinton was involved. 5/13/2007 RCP average had Clinton 34.8 - Obama 22.0. A sizable 12.8 point lead, but there were 43.2% of voters up for grabs at that point, and Obama did a better job of grabbing those voters. 5/13/2015 RCP average has Clinton 62.2 - Sanders 5.6. Sanders has a much wider gap to close than Obama did and I really don’t see any reason to believe he can do so. There just aren’t enough up for grabs voters for him to pull this off. Warren and Biden are polling ahead of Sanders, but neither is running. [2008](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html) [2016](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html) ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2015, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/540 "2015-05-13T18:02:58Z")
Or lets look at Iowa and New Hampshire. RCP average for Iowa on 5/13/2007. Edwards 28.8 Clinton 24.0 Obama 20.3 Clinton was not even in the lead. She improved to 29.4% by the day election, but took a close third due to a mediocre improvement by Edwards (29.7) and a stellar performance by Obama (37.5). RCP average for Iowa on 5/13/2015. Clinton 60.6 Warren 15.5 Biden 9.5 Sanders 8.6 O’Malley 2.4 Webb 2.2 Chafee 0.7 This is not remotely similar. She can drop 20 points in the polls and still outperform Obama’s 2008 showing. RCP average for NH on 5/13/2007. Clinton 33.3 Edwards 23.0 Obama 20.3 Clinton improved to 39% to hold off Obama (36.4%) despite his Iowa momentum. RCP average for NH on 5/13/2015. Clinton 50.8 Warren 22.3 Sanders 13.8 Biden 5.3 O’Malley 2.8 Chafee 1.3 Webb 1.3 Not quite as big as her Iowa lead, but both Warren and Sanders have a bit of a home field advantage in NH. Even so Clinton can drop 10 points in the polls and still outperform her 2008 showing which was good enough to win. In both Iowa and NH Clinton gained support from May 2007 to the respective election. For 2016 she doesn’t even have to do that to win handily. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458.md?page=26) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458.md?page=28)