# The Great Un-Fork Hillary Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 12, 2015, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458 "2015-04-12T00:17:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 28
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2015, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/541 "2015-05-14T02:36:54Z")
It is however true that the cards are stacked against a GOP nominee. Assume that the states’ relative leans stay the same as in 2012. Then, per Silver, Colorado was [the tipping point state.](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/08/as-nation-and-parties-change-republicans-are-at-an-electoral-college-disadvantage/?_r=0) > [@](#): > > Had the popular vote been a tie – assuming that the margin in each state shifted uniformly – he would still have won re-election with 285 electoral votes, carrying Colorado and Virginia, although losing Florida and Ohio. > > In fact, had Mr. Romney won the popular vote by two percentage points, Mr. Obama would still have won the Electoral College, losing Virginia but holding onto Colorado. > > Of course, the relative order of the states can shift a bit from election to election: in 2000, after all, it was Democrats who lost the Electoral College despite winning the popular vote. > > Ohio might be one of the Republicans’ lesser worries. Mr. Obama did win the state, but his margin is 1.9 percentage points based on the ballots in so far, slightly less than his margin of victory nationally, and he may have benefited there from the auto bailout, a one-off event. > > But Mr. Obama did not need Ohio to carry the Electoral College, it turned out. Instead, states where there have been demographic shifts, like Colorado, gave him enough of a cushion. Let’s underline this - given no changes in states’ leans a Democratic presidential candidate not only wins in a tie, they win even if they lose the popular vote by two points. Now of course it is true that states’ leans can move, but the demographic changes only further favor a Democrat in those critical states since then and Clinton is a pretty attractive candidate particularly in Ohio. And it is of note that if the election was a national tie, or even McCain by 1, in 2008 Obama would also still have carried the electoral college with Colorado as the tipping point with the leans of that year. A close election goes D. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2015, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/542 "2015-05-14T03:14:55Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > It is however true that the cards are stacked against a GOP nominee. > > Assume that the states’ relative leans stay the same as in 2012. Then, per Silver, Colorado was [the tipping point state.](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/08/as-nation-and-parties-change-republicans-are-at-an-electoral-college-disadvantage/?_r=0) This is another reason the Tea Party is killing Republicans. In Colorado, things are going swimmingly with a Democratic House and Governor. The Tea Party is mostly a rural and Colorado Springs phenomenon, and doesn’t hold much sway over the Republicans. When they do make news,[it is usually in a really bad way.](http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_27816504/klingenschmitt-loses-committee-post-recall-effort-weighed) This idiot was stripped of his committee post by his own leadership because of moronic comments after a horrible crime was committed. Right next door, Kansas has gone all in with the Tea Party and is suffering horribly. They suck at every economic and cultural measurement compared to everyone else in the region, and everybody knows it. Colorado school districts are being flooded with job applications from experienced Kansas teachers. People want out of there. Coloradoans know what works here and it isn’t what the Republicans are selling. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2015, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/543 "2015-05-14T03:28:06Z")
[QUOTE=Lance Turbo;18362613In both Iowa and NH Clinton gained support from May 2007 to the respective election. For 2016 she doesn’t even have to do that to win handily.[/QUOTE] As I’ve already said, I consider HRC to be the odds on favorite to be the Democratic nominee. Not sure why you thought I was saying otherwise. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2015, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/544 "2015-05-14T14:03:49Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > This is another reason the Tea Party is killing Republicans. In Colorado, things are going swimmingly with a Democratic House and Governor. The Tea Party is mostly a rural and Colorado Springs phenomenon, and doesn’t hold much sway over the Republicans. When they do make news,[it is usually in a really bad way.](http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_27816504/klingenschmitt-loses-committee-post-recall-effort-weighed) This idiot was stripped of his committee post by his own leadership because of moronic comments after a horrible crime was committed. … OTOH episodes like that give the state level “we aint bat-shit crazy” wing of the GOP a chance to distance themselves from the “we is completely bat-shit” wing and could serve a relatively more centrist GOP presidential nominee well in the general … unless (s)he has pandered too much to the extremist wing in the primary of course. All I can say is that I am glad I don’t live in Florida, Virginia, Ohio, or Colorado. Come the general election those four states are going to be SO overwhelmingly blasted with negative ads (and a few positive ones). If I was Team Hillary I’d take advantage of not having too much to worry about in the primary and start hitting the ground in those four states now. And even til the soil some so to speak in Texas for longer term future party benefts. Maybe even do some visiting in North Carolina and Indiana, where she’s likely to do better than Obama did. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2015, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/545 "2015-05-14T14:18:16Z")
It would be a nice break from being blasted by ambulance-chasing lawyer’s commercials here in Florida. Back in Massachusetts, the ads were wall to wall right up until the NH primary and then stopped completely. You only had to be patient for a few months. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2015, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/546 "2015-05-14T16:15:37Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Now I can’t wait for the NEXT set of general election polls. The wait is over. [New Fox News poll.](http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/05/13/fox-news-polls-huckabee-seen-as-more-ethical-than-most-clintons-favorable-slips/) If I had to write a headline it would be, “Voters still unaware of Clinton free fall.” Clinton trails Bush by a point and leads all other Republicans. Clinton’s numbers range from 44-49 where the Republicans range from 37-45. I am unconcerned by her trailing Bush because I have it on good authority that Jeb Bush will not be the nominee. > [@adaher](#): > > Call that a prediction. Jeb Bush will not be the nominee. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2015, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/547 "2015-05-14T20:55:40Z")
I’m getting a bit of a chuckle out of how she is driving the press absolutely bonkers by not being out there answering questions. They can’t stand not being given the chance to trip her up! ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2015, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/548 "2015-05-14T21:02:49Z")
They do have column-inch and air-time quotas to meet, even if there’s nothing to meet them with. I wouldn’t put it past her to be reminding the Heather-clique DC news community that she can do what Bill did, and go around them direct to the people - no matter how it may enrage them that the office temp in the White House on a four-year contract, whoever it is at the time, has more power and influence than they do. They often seem to think of \*themselves \*as the permanent power structure there. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2015, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/549 "2015-05-28T15:53:07Z")
[New Quinnipiac poll.](http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2228) The Clinton free fall continues unabated. Dem primary: Clinton 57 Sanders 15 Biden 9 Chafee 1 O’Malley 1 Webb 1 General election: Clinton 47, Bush 37 Clinton 46, Walker 38 Clinton 45, Rubio 41 Clinton 46, Paul 42 Clinton 47, Huckabee 40 Clinton 48, Cruz 37 Clinton 46, Christie 37 235 days until Iowa. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2015, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/550 "2015-05-30T16:10:11Z")
If this trend continues, she could be at 56% before January! ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2015, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/551 "2015-06-02T14:24:19Z")
Two new polls released: [CNN/ORC](http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/06/01/2016.poll.pdf) and [ABC/Washington Post](http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/06/02/National-Politics/Polling/release_396.xml). Dem Primary (CNN): Clinton 60 Biden 14 Sanders 10 Webb 2 O’Malley 1 Chafee Dem Primary (ABC): Clinton 62 Biden 14 Sanders 10 O’Malley 3 Webb 1 Chafee 1 General Election (CNN): Clinton 51, Bush 43 Clinton 52, Cruz 43 Clinton 48, Paul 47 Clinton 49, Rubio 46 Clinton 49, Walker 46 General Election (ABC): Clinton 47, Bush 44 It has come to my attention that I had been using the wrong date for the Iowa caucus in previous posts. I don’t know how I screwed that up and I apologize for my error. 244 days until Iowa. Some questions to ponder: [ul] [li]Is Clinton still in a free fall?[/li][li]How close is the DNC to yanking its support for Clinton?[/li][li]Are these polls good news for the Republicans or the best news ever?[/li][/ul] ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2015, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/552 "2015-06-02T16:45:06Z")
I say it’s bad new for Hillary. Paul, Rubio, and Walker are within striking distance of her. (Seriously, Rand Paul is statistically tied with her, in the CNN poll no less!) And that’s with most of the Republicans having fairly low name recognition up till now. Hillary is such a known commodity that I don’t see enthusiasm for her going up from here. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2015, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/553 "2015-06-02T17:17:56Z")
I think these polls indicate what most polls have indicated up to this point. That Clinton will cruise to the Dem nomination, but the 2016 general is too close to call this far out and I don’t see how any other interpretation could be reasonably supported. I don’t see how that’s bad news for Clinton. > [@Diceman](#): > > …in the CNN poll no less! You may be surprised to find that CNN/ORC has a slight Republican lean (0.6%) according to [538](http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/). ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2015, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/554 "2015-06-02T17:45:33Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > You may be surprised to find that CNN/ORC has a slight Republican lean (0.6%) according to [538](http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/). Given the political leanings of the typical CNN article, I am indeed surprised. This is bad news for Hillary because for months now we’ve been hearing how her presidency is a foregone conclusion. And it’s true that no other Democrat can even see her from where they’re standing, but among the general population it seems that her support has already peaked, and there are at least 3 Republicans who, for now at least, appear to be quite credible challengers. It really could be that the Clinton Foundation scandal is the straw that broke the camel’s back. We’re starting to see fairly compelling circumstantial evidence that the Clintons had some kind of pay-for-play deal going on. It may or may not have been illegal, but it very well might be enough to keep her out of the White House. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2015, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/555 "2015-06-02T20:06:37Z")
I think this is exactly the wrong time to be looking at polls for the Democratic primaries. The first real contender only entered the race a couple of days ago-- Give it a few weeks, and let’s see how O’Malley is polling vs. Clinton then. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2015, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/556 "2015-06-02T21:26:50Z")
O’Malley will get a bump from his announcement just like Sanders did. However, Sanders’ bump didn’t come at Clinton’s expense. On 4/27/2015 (Sanders officially announced on 4/29) it was Clinton 60.9 - Sanders 9.0 while as of 5/31/2015 we have Clinton 61.2 - Sanders 12.8. O’Malley has been campaigning for a while now and he’s polling at 1.9. Where do think he’s going to be in a few weeks? I don’t see any reason to believe he’ll get a bigger bump than Bernie and given where he is now I’d expect less of one. Even so, I think his bump won’t come at the expense of Clinton. It will come from undecideds and maybe Biden and Sanders. Sanders’ bump correlates pretty well with a Biden decline. What is O’Malley going to bring over the next few week that will give him better results than Sanders had in the first month since his announcement? All numbers above from [here](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary). ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2015, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/557 "2015-06-04T02:25:01Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Two new polls released: [CNN/ORC](http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/06/01/2016.poll.pdf) and [ABC/Washington Post](http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/06/02/National-Politics/Polling/release_396.xml). > > Dem Primary (CNN): > Clinton 60 > Biden 14 > Sanders 10 > Webb 2 > O’Malley 1 > Chafee > > Dem Primary (ABC): > Clinton 62 > Biden 14 > Sanders 10 > O’Malley 3 > Webb 1 > Chafee 1 > > General Election (CNN): > Clinton 51, Bush 43 > Clinton 52, Cruz 43 > Clinton 48, Paul 47 > Clinton 49, Rubio 46 > Clinton 49, Walker 46 > > General Election (ABC): > Clinton 47, Bush 44 > > It has come to my attention that I had been using the wrong date for the Iowa caucus in previous posts. I don’t know how I screwed that up and I apologize for my error. > > 244 days until Iowa. > > Some questions to ponder: > [ul] > [li]Is Clinton still in a free fall?[/li][li]How close is the DNC to yanking its support for Clinton?[/li][li]Are these polls good news for the Republicans or the best news ever?[/li][/ul] If you look at those same polls compared to what CNN found one month ago, it’s pretty clear her numbers have seen significant degradation: [http://pollingreport.com/wh16gen.htm](http://pollingreport.com/wh16gen.htm) She lost 9 against Jeb, 19 against Walker, and 14 against Cruz, 11 against Rubio, and 18 against RAnd Paul. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2015, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/558 "2015-06-04T05:34:11Z")
Clinton’s pollster insists it’s just a flesh wound! > **[Clinton pollster downplays Hillary's sinking poll numbers](https://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/hillary-clinton-joel-benenson-poll-numbers-118590?hp=lc1_4)** > > “We think there’s been a minimal change,” Joel Benenson says. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2015, 12:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/559 "2015-06-04T12:46:07Z")
If whistling while you’re walking past that graveyard works for you, knock yourself out. I think Hillary’s negatives are not going to be going up- if you’ve decided to vote against her, you decided that at least 8 years ago, probably 20 years ago. The election will be between her and an actual person. That person will either be Jeb Bush, whom even Republicans have a hard time stomaching, or one of the un-Bushes out there who still have over 16 months to make fools of themselves. Their negatives will go up because to be honest most people don’t yet know them well. Whoever comes out on top will be subject to negative ads and have to debate Hillary. On top of all that, shifting demographics and social values work against the Republicans. They all need to demonize gay marriage, long after the rest of us moved on. They have to demonize abortion, whereas abortion rights support is growing. They’re on the wrong side of history and the wrong side of demographics. There simply aren’t enough angry white males out there to win elections anymore. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2015, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/560 "2015-06-04T13:59:49Z")
There is zero question in my mind that the polling support of each potential not-Hillary will come up and down dramatically over the next few months, from teens to mid 40s up down sideways. Clinton will meanwhile stay pretty much where she is until we get much farther into the season: a minority firmly decided to vote against her pretty much no matter what; near half choosing her over various flavors of generic and somewhat known other choices; and another portion either not paying enough attention yet to have any real opinion or up in the air potentially winnable by either side. Any poll that predicts her winning a general by 60% is goofy, reflecting unreasonable early favorabilities, but her floor at this point is consistently mid-40s reflecting the MOE around the 48% that she pretty much has in the bag. (And the bit more than a third that are committed to vote for any not-Hillary, even Trump!) As **BobLibDem** points out, and has been pointed out to you before, the not-Hillary candidates are all still mostly generic blank slates to most of the public. Blank slates that by necessity will be filled with statements that a majority of those either not paying enough attention yet to have any real opinion or up in the air potentially winnable by either side will be turned off by, and subjected to negative campaigns by each other even before the general season begins. It is not impossible that a GOP candidate will overwhelmingly win over the vast majority of those who are either not paying enough attention yet to have any real opinion or up in the air potentially winnable by either side … Hillary could make some major flubs or one of them could really be an amazing campaigner and blow Team Hillary away. Not too likely though. Meanwhile that politico bit reeks of media outlet desperation trying to drum up news where there is is really nothing to see. We will see lots more of that as the season goes on: you’ve got to drive the clicks to sell the ads. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458.md?page=27) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458.md?page=29)