# The Great Un-Fork Hillary Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 12, 2015, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458 "2015-04-12T00:17:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 31
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2015, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/601 "2015-06-18T16:08:22Z")
And that lack of focus allows rich Hollywood types to get their priorities on the frontburner. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2015, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/602 "2015-06-18T16:13:14Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And that lack of focus allows rich Hollywood types to get their priorities on the frontburner. Yes, this is a small part of the party. Quit reaching so much. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2015, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/603 "2015-06-18T16:17:42Z")
Then how come a climate change push was the third thing the Democrats did after the stimulus and health care? Who do you think made that part of the agenda? The Latino caucus? Oh wait, they wanted immigration done(and got completely stiffed), the CBC? Hah! The unions! That must be it. Oh no, they have been busy getting stiffed on Keystone ever since Obama took office, as well as his war on coal. Not even a nod to the overall working class by passing an easy minimum wage increase. Of course, I might be even less cynical than I should be. The Democrats might have seen more value in having the issues of immigration and minimum wage than in actually getting something done. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2015, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/604 "2015-06-18T16:23:49Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Then how come a climate change push was the third thing the Democrats did after the stimulus and health care? [How about a](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_Barack_Obama#Major_legislation) cite? > [@](#): > > Who do you think made that part of the agenda? The Latino caucus? Oh wait, they wanted immigration done(and got completely stiffed), the CBC? Hah! The unions! That must be it. Oh no, they have been busy getting stiffed on Keystone ever since Obama took office, as well as his war on coal. Not even a nod to the overall working class by passing an easy minimum wage increase. I don’t buy that there was a chance at an “easy minimum wage increase”. And the “war on coal” is as much a joke as the “apology tour”, Hannity. I’m sure any actions on climate change were motivated by a combination of political considerations (including donors) and the possibility that climate change may, you know, _severely harm America and Americans_. Your analysis is bunk. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2015, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/605 "2015-06-18T19:02:41Z")
OK, I didn’t want to go there, but you guys asked for it! Everybody in California has to move somewhere else! By the way, for no particular reason, I should mention that it is terribly cold all the time in Minnesota. Bitterly cold, really really cold. Iowa is nice. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2015, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/606 "2015-06-18T19:04:34Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And that lack of focus allows rich Hollywood types to get their priorities on the frontburner. Ah yes, Clint Eastwood and his famous empty-chair act … Knocked 'em dead, didn’t it? ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2015, 8:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/607 "2015-06-19T08:40:54Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Then how come a climate change push was the third thing the Democrats did after the stimulus and health care? Who do you think made that part of the agenda? Scientists? The insurance industry who will have to pay out if New York City gets submerged (again)? The rest of us in the reality-based world? ---
**Author:** ![Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/46a35a/32.png) [@Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tim_T-Bonham.net)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2015, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/608 "2015-06-19T17:05:46Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Scientists? The insurance industry who will have to pay out if New York City gets submerged (again)? Almost all property insurance excludes flood damage. So the insurance companies would not pay out. You have to have specific ‘flood insurance’ for that, which is government backed. It’s only available to areas designated as “flood plains”, and those were set up long ago, before the effects of climate change were noticed. So many of the areas now threatened by rising ocean waters are not covered. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2015, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/609 "2015-06-19T17:15:33Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Scientists? The insurance industry who will have to pay out if New York City gets submerged (again)? The rest of us in the reality-based world? So the white guys, as I said. If a few hundred thousand minorities lose their jobs as a result, so what, it saves the planet. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2015, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/610 "2015-06-19T17:45:42Z")
> [@t-bonham@scc.net](#): > > Almost all property insurance excludes flood damage. So the insurance companies would not pay out. You have to have specific ‘flood insurance’ for that, which is government backed. It’s only available to areas designated as “flood plains”, and those were set up long ago, before the effects of climate change were noticed. So many of the areas now threatened by rising ocean waters are not covered. Ah - so it’s already in the government’s interest for coastal cities not to flood. > [@adaher](#): > > So the white guys, as I said. If a few hundred thousand minorities lose their jobs as a result, so what, it saves the planet. I keep reading this but it still makes no sense to me. Are you saying that only white people care about global warming? That hundreds of thousands of minorities will lose their jobs if we cut back on carbon emissions? That saving the planet is a bad thing? Where the hell do you get this stuff? Seriously, [are you this guy](http://www.condenaststore.com/-sp/Yes-the-planet-got-destroyed-But-for-a-beautiful-moment-in-time-we-created-a-lot-of-value-for-sh-Prints_i9318014_.htm)? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2015, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/611 "2015-06-19T18:54:53Z")
Clinton is actually still in free fall. She just hit 50% unfavorable in a CNN poll. All across the board, her numbers on personal characteristics continue to drop. [http://pollingreport.com/hrc.htm](http://pollingreport.com/hrc.htm) 50% say she doesn’t inspire confidence. 52% don’t believe she “cares about people like you” 57% do not believe she is honest or trustworthy 58% are dissatisfied with her handling of Benghazi. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2015, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/612 "2015-06-19T18:58:11Z")
So why is it that \*all \*your guys are having such trouble catching up to her? ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2015, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/613 "2015-06-19T18:59:02Z")
> [@t-bonham@scc.net](#): > > Almost all property insurance excludes flood damage. So the insurance companies would not pay out. You have to have specific ‘flood insurance’ for that, which is government backed. It’s only available to areas designated as “flood plains”, and those were set up long ago, before the effects of climate change were noticed. So many of the areas now threatened by rising ocean waters are not covered. The update the maps constantly. I know this because last year I suddenly became a homeowner in a \*flood zone \*after living there 13 years. ETA, you’re right about property insurance generally excluding flood damage. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2015, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/614 "2015-06-19T19:01:37Z")
Haven’t CAUGHT her yet. Catching up has been ongoing. And arguably, Rubio and Paul have caught up, at least in battleground states. A candidate with such poor ratings is just a candidate waiting for an alternative to topple her. Right now there are no credible alternatives that the majority of the public knows about. As the public starts paying more attention, that will change. Happened in 2014 to a lot of Senate Democrats, who some people taunted me, were leading up until Labor Day. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2015, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/615 "2015-06-19T20:18:12Z")
Doubling back to that claim that the Democratic Party is, as a result of demographic shifts, becoming less liberal … [uh no](http://www.gallup.com/poll/183686/democrats-shift-left.aspx?utm_source=Politics&utm_medium=newsfeed&utm_campaign=tiles). > [@Gallup 6/18/2015](#): > > **Democrats in the U.S. Shift to the Left** … Democratic candidates for the 2016 presidential nomination face a significantly more left-leaning party base than their predecessors did over the last 15 years. Forty-seven percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents now identify as both socially liberal and economically moderate or liberal. This is compared with 39% in these categories in 2008, when there was last an open seat for their party’s nomination, and 30% in 2001. > > This combined group of Democrats consists of 25% who are pure liberals – identifying as liberal on both social and economic issues – and 22% who are social liberals but moderate on the economy. … [Meanwhile …](http://www.gallup.com/poll/183491/republican-conservative-base-shrinks.aspx?utm_source=position2&utm_medium=related&utm_campaign=tiles) > [@Gallup 6/3/2015](#): > > **Republican Conservative Base Shrinks** … The percentage of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who describe themselves as both social and economic conservatives has dropped to 42%, the lowest level Gallup has measured since 2005. The second-largest group of Republicans (24%) see themselves as moderate or liberal on both social and economic issues, while 20% of all Republicans are moderate or liberal on social issues but conservative on economic ones. … This change in recent years has been significant. The percentage of Republicans identifying as conservative on both dimensions has dropped 15 percentage points since 2012, largely offset by an increase in the percentage who identify as moderate or liberal on both dimensions … Yup, you add that up right. Just about as many of the GOP and GOP-leaners are self-identified as socially liberal to moderate as are socially conservative. Your selective reading of your [PollingReport.com](http://PollingReport.com) cite is entertaining. That CNN poll from the end of May is coupled with unchanged to slightly improved numbers in fairly contemporaneous Quinnipiac and Gallup polls. Yes, we should expect her favorability to drop some and settle down into the mid to upper 40s as a candidate. Likely it will drop during the primaries some as some progressive Democrats rate her poorly in favor of Bernie … and then will come back to up to the baseline as those voters rally back to her. Do any of the GOP candidates hit the upper 40s for favorability? You know the answer. No. Your hope is based on the fact that they also don’t have high unfavorable ratings yet. There is a _chance_ that, say [Rubio](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/marco-rubio-favorable-rating) (running 34 to 34) could win people over, or maybe [Jeb Bush](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/jeb-bush-favorable-rating)’s 50% unfavorable to 32 favorable will change course, or that [Paul](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/rand-paul-favorable-rating) could build on his 34 favorability rating. But they don’t yet. And [the data we have](http://election.princeton.edu/2015/04/13/the-real-problem-with-that-chart/)seems to show that > [@Sam Wang](#): > > … as people get to know a GOP candidate, they will break unfavorable-to-favorable by a more than 3:1 ratio Maybe won’t. Of course what happens will depend on, well, what happens. How a candidate runs, how effectively they are wounded by their peers in a primary battle, how good they are at the vision thang … we’ll see. But favorability in the mid to upper 40s? Any of the GOP candidates would be thrilled to have it. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2015, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/616 "2015-06-19T21:12:51Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Clinton is actually still in free fall. Wow. I stopped asking you about this because I didn’t think there was any way you could possibly still believe it. On April, 27 you said… > [@adaher](#): > > Her poll standing is in free fall. We haven’t seen the bottom yet. Can you explain how a candidate whose poll standing has been in free fall for almost two month is still holding onto to massive primary lead and polling ahead of republicans in almost every head to head poll? What definition of ‘free fall’ are you using? Can you express it in terms like, “This candidate dropped p points in d days”? My minimum threshold would be in the neighborhood 10 points in 30 days as “free fall” suggests to me a very steep decent. What is you “free fall” threshold? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2015, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/617 "2015-06-19T21:46:42Z")
Name recognition. Her favorables are actually still in free fall. Not sure how you can look at the polls I posted and not see that clearly. A majority of voters don’t see any particular redeeming value in her. She’s not even doing well on leadership anymore. The voters who are in that 50% are either going Republican or staying home. They are not going to warm up to her. Even if they say right now in polls that they will vote for her, it doesn’t matter, because there is no likely voter screen yet. If they don’t actually like her, they won’t be likely voters come fall 2016. ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2015, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/618 "2015-06-19T21:55:59Z")
Please, **adaher** , keep up your prognostication. It’s just the boost of confidence we need. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2015, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/619 "2015-06-19T21:59:00Z")
You need to update your data. I did better than any other poster in the last election. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2015, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/620 "2015-06-19T22:16:03Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Her favorables are actually still in free fall. Clinton favorable/unfavorable on April 27: 46.5/47.4 Clinton favorable/unfavorable on June 15: 45.3/49.6 From this I can infer that your “free fall” threshold for favorability is a drop of 1.2 points over the course of 49 days or about 0.0245 points per day. Is this an accurate summary of your views? If so, my “free fall” threshold is more than ten times higher than yours. Maybe mine is too high, but yours seems really low. [Data source](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458.md?page=30) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458.md?page=32)