# The Great Un-Fork Hillary Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 12, 2015, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458 "2015-04-12T00:17:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 36
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2015, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/701 "2015-06-30T16:57:31Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Big enthusiasm gap for 2016. Looking more and more like the Obama coalition only shows up for Obama. > > [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/06/29/poll\_democratic\_voters\_lack\_faith\_in\_clinton\_127177.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/06/29/poll_democratic_voters_lack_faith_in_clinton_127177.html) > > Democratic voters think the system is broken. Democratic voters are a pretty faithless bunch, aren’t they? When Republicans elect their guys and their guys suck, they just assume those guys suck and vote for Democrats(2006, 2008). When Democrats elect their guys and their guys suck, they assume the system must be at fault and pout and stay home. Hey everybody, **adaher** ’s found another chicken! ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2015, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/702 "2015-06-30T17:11:33Z")
I imagine Obama’s climbing poll numbers (and drop in negatives) after last week doesn’t mean anything in adaher’s world, though he had a lot to say about their effects as a drag on Hillary when they were down. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2015, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/703 "2015-06-30T17:15:54Z")
It’ll take more than 47%, or even 50%, to save Clinton. Candidates running as a 3rd term often lose with the incumbent having 60% support(Nixon and Gore). What’s so hilarious about this is how obvious her loss is going to look in hindsight, just like the 2014 losses. After 2010 and 2014, whenever Democrats hear “enthusiasm gap” they should be very afraid. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2015, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/704 "2015-06-30T17:23:12Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It’ll take more than 47%, or even 50%, to save Clinton. Candidates running as a 3rd term often lose with the incumbent having 60% support(Nixon and Gore). > > What’s so hilarious about this is how obvious her loss is going to look in hindsight, just like the 2014 losses. After 2010 and 2014, whenever Democrats hear “enthusiasm gap” they should be very afraid. Bookmarked! More wonderful, tasty **adaher** predictions about Presidential election doom for the Democrats! ---
**Author:** ![CGav8r](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/34f0e0/32.png) [@CGav8r](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CGav8r)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2015, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/705 "2015-06-30T18:01:50Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It’ll take more than 47%, or even 50%, to save Clinton. Candidates running as a 3rd term often lose with the incumbent having 60% support(Nixon and Gore). > > What’s so hilarious about this is how obvious her loss is going to look in hindsight, just like the 2014 losses. After 2010 and 2014, whenever Democrats hear “enthusiasm gap” they should be very afraid. There will be \*something \*that is obvious in hindsight, but it won’t be about a Clinton losing. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2015, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/706 "2015-06-30T18:10:25Z")
**adaher** , I hope you’ll commit to sticking around and not running off from the Dope after election day 2016. I’ll commit to that right now for myself. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2015, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/707 "2015-06-30T18:57:02Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Bookmarked! More wonderful, tasty **adaher** predictions about Presidential election doom for the Democrats! I hope you have an entire folder of bookmarks just for adaher. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2015, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/708 "2015-06-30T18:58:11Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > **adaher** , I hope you’ll commit to sticking around and not running off from the Dope after election day 2016. I’ll commit to that right now for myself. How long was his post-2012 flounce? I know he disappeared for a long while. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2015, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/709 "2015-06-30T19:53:10Z")
It was a few months. Then, for years afterward, he refused to admit the election even happened. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2015, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/710 "2015-06-30T20:05:52Z")
Which apparently isn’t uncommon, because all of you are acting as if 2014 was an outlier, or just a thing that happens in midterms. None of you seem willing to admit the possibility that it’s a thing that happens when Obama isn’t on the ballot. And the polling I cited confirms that. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2015, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/711 "2015-06-30T20:09:12Z")
2014 \*was \*a midterm, you know. > [@](#): > > And the polling I cited confirms that. Ah, that never grows old. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2015, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/712 "2015-06-30T20:32:07Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And the polling I cited confirms that. You didn’t actually cite any polling. You cited an article that cited a [report](http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1007/Dcor_WV_June%20poll_short%20memo_6.29.15.FINALforweb.pdf)that contained some polling. Then you latched onto one thing that is potential negative for Democrats if it not addressed in the next 18 months while ignoring any potential negatives for Republicans contained therein. Then you used that one thing to attribute a bunch thoughts and motivations to Democratic voters. There is a mountain of evidence that suggests that the 2016 is going to be close but might be leaning Dem. One report that points out one potential danger does not make that mountain go away. ---
**Author:** ![Pashnish\_Ewing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8797f3/32.png) [@Pashnish\_Ewing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pashnish_Ewing)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2015, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/713 "2015-06-30T20:52:49Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It’ll take more than 47%, or even 50%, to save Clinton. Save her from what? Oh, I got it! THE FREE FALL :eek: ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2015, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/714 "2015-07-01T00:05:27Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Big enthusiasm gap for 2016. Looking more and more like the Obama coalition only shows up for Obama. > > [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/06/29/poll\_democratic\_voters\_lack\_faith\_in\_clinton\_127177.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/06/29/poll_democratic_voters_lack_faith_in_clinton_127177.html) … Not reading anything _in the data_ there that supports what you claim it says. No, it is not a news flash that many Democratic voters are cynics and skeptics … lawd knows I am. Yet we can simultaneously believe the system is broken and vote for who we think will do the best job. From your link: > [@](#): > > … Clinton is basically matching Obama’s 2012 support among the key elements of the party’s base, and she’s outpacing his support among white unmarried women. Obama did better in 2012 among minority voters, but according to the survey, Clinton does better among white millennial voters … Where is the evidence of any enthusiasm gap? This? > [@](#): > > … The threat comes down to an enthusiasm gap of 19 points between the Democrats who say they are “extremely interested” **in the congressional and local races** in 2016, and the much more energized GOP voters. … Bolding mine. I can see Democratic operatives trying to spin it the way you do … there is a real risk to complacency … and a reason for the Democratic interest group to want to argue for a campaign that is focused on what they want it focused on (that they claim will enthuse the “Rising American Electorate” … but I don’t see anything that supports the spin. Specifically I am not seeing any comparison to enthusiasm numbers for Obama in nearly one and a half years before he was first elected or re-elected. But to your point … yes, the GOP tends to get more excited about local and congressional races than rank and file Democrats do, hence the mid-terms were good for the GOP. Let’s face it, for most in this country the results of local and congressional elections are a fait accompli. These pollsters knew the answer they wanted and that is why they phrased it like that and not “in the 2016 Presidential election.” From the [full report](http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1007/Dcor_WV_June%20poll_short%20memo_6.29.15.FINALforweb.pdf): > [@](#): > > … this survey produces a big jump in Democratic enthusiasm after voters hear an agenda that speaks to their lives and promises a government that serves their interests, particularly among Democratic base groups such as unmarried women and drop-off voters. … Yeah yeah … we know where you want the focus Democracy Corps. And yes Hillary already knows what the voters need to hear - again from your link > [@](#): > > … Asked what Clinton is not talking about that voters want to hear from a candidate, Greenberg said he was struck by how closely the former first lady’s launch speech this month at Roosevelt Island in New York tracked what voters tell pollsters. > > “I thought, `Wow, she saw a draft of the questionnaire!’” … Not making the news stories about the report though is this contained within it - > [@](#): > > … Since the Reagan revolution, voters have typically been twice as likely to describe themselves as conservative than as liberal. In the 2008 electorate that voted for Barack Obama, conservatives enjoyed a 19-point edge in self-identification. Now, that margin stands at just 8 points. Conservative identification drops to 31 percent among Independent voters. Women now divide evenly (31 percent liberal, 31 percent conservative). White millennials, who voted Republican in 2010, 2012 and 2014, divide 38 percent liberal, 25 percent conservative. … The country is less conservative now (Gallup has come to the same conclusion, previously cited) and the GOP primary will be tone deaf to that shift. In particular they are losing the rising tide of Millennials, a group that [is bigger than the Boomers](http://money.cnn.com/interactive/economy/diversity-millennials-boomers/). This does not look like good news for the GOP. A toxic brand. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2015, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/715 "2015-07-01T04:30:54Z")
They have a toxic brand, yet they win pretty often. Imagine how screwed the Democrats would be if they put Hillary Clinton up against a non-toxic brand. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2015, 11:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/716 "2015-07-01T11:11:12Z")
Imagine that I’m a French super model. Imagine there is no gravity. Imagine the universe exists in only two dimensions. We can imagine lots of things. Meanwhile we can speculate based on what _is_ as we read this poll you bring to us, that demonstrates how the American public views the Republican brand as poisoned by the GOP Congress and their leadership, that documents the Leftward shift of the population, that demonstrates Hillary is as or more popular that Obama was in almost all key parts of the party and the low attention paid _to local and Congressional races_ by Democrats a year an a half out compared to Republicans (not to Presidential politics, and no reason not to believe is the norm) would reverse if a candidate talked about the agenda that Hillary has staked out as what she is going to be talking about, and lastly that Millennials of all sorts including Whites, a bigger demographic than Boomers, are being lost to the GOP … Yeah based on what the world seems actually to be Hillary is far from screwed. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2015, 11:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/717 "2015-07-01T11:47:39Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > They have a toxic brand, yet they win pretty often. Imagine how screwed the Democrats would be if they put Hillary Clinton up against a non-toxic brand. Tell me more about this fantastical, magical world! Are there unicorns and fairies? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2015, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/718 "2015-07-01T15:09:20Z")
New [CNN/ORC poll](http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/06/30/trumpbushclinton.pdf). I know it’s a poll of adults as opposed to registered voters or likely voters, and I know it’s huge outlier. But holy balls. Clinton vs. top Republicans: Bush vs. Clinton - Clinton 54, Bush 41 - Clinton +13 Walker vs. Clinton - Clinton 57, Walker 40 - Clinton +17 Rubio vs. Clinton - Clinton 56, Rubio 40 - Clinton +16 Christie vs. Clinton - Clinton 55, Christie 39 - Clinton +16 Trump vs. Clinton - Clinton 59, Trump 35 - Clinton +24 Dem primary: Clinton 58 Biden 17 Sanders 15 Webb 1 O’Malley 1 ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2015, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/719 "2015-07-01T15:26:02Z")
Now take Biden out of the Dem mix and it’s likely quite overwhelming for Clinton. I hope Bill and Hillary kept the drapery dimensions for the White House residence rooms. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2015, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/720 "2015-07-01T15:29:21Z")
Expect to hear a whole lot about how Bill will really be in charge, like Juan Peron during the Evita administration. That means all the Whitewater nonsense is coming back from the dead. And it will work about as well as it did last time. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458.md?page=35) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458.md?page=37)