# The Great Un-Fork Hillary Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 12, 2015, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458 "2015-04-12T00:17:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 38
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2015, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/741 "2015-07-11T16:47:07Z")
Every **adaher** post makes me think of [this song](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLIDuu1XsRc)… ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2015, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/742 "2015-07-11T16:47:58Z")
OK, so it wasn’t a total _disaster_ for the Dems, but it was very, _very_ bad and a certain sign of their impending doom. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2015, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/743 "2015-07-14T22:50:08Z")
New [USA Today/Suffolk poll](https://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/7_14_2015_marginals.pdf). Clinton 46, Bush 42 Clinton +4 Clinton 46, Rubio 40 Clinton +6 Clinton 49, Huckabee 40 Clinton +9 Clinton 48, Paul 38 Clinton +10 Clinton 48, Walker 37 Clinton +11 Clinton 49, Carson 36 Clinton +13 Clinton 51, Trump 34 Clinton +17 On scale of one to ten where one is a narrow Republican presidential victory and ten is 538 - 0 Republican electoral college sweep, how good is this news for the Republicans? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2015, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/744 "2015-07-14T23:54:29Z")
The free-fall continues. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2015, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/745 "2015-07-15T01:06:28Z")
Honestly that poll _is_ pretty good news for Bush. “Ask the youngest in the household”? Twice as many who plan on voting in the democratic primaries than in the GOP one? And with that only 4 down? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2015, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/746 "2015-07-15T15:18:29Z")
Hmm… that “Ask the youngest in the household” bit is weird, but the age distribution shown in question 4 doesn’t look entirely different from the age distribution of this 2012 [NBC exit poll](http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/all/president/#.VaZ2vPlViko). It’s hard to be sure, since the age ranges don’t line up exactly. Combining bins to compare directly yields: ```auto Age USAT NBC 18-24 9.3% 11.0% 25-49 46.7% 45.0% 50-64 26.1% 28.0% 65+ 16.9% 16.0% ``` ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2015, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/747 "2015-07-15T16:06:24Z")
Despite many of the media talking-heads proclaiming that the relative popularity so far of Bernie Sanders’ campaign is because many Democrats are not very happy about supporting Hillary Clinton, the [data suggests](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-bernie-sanders-surge-is-about-bernie-not-hillary/) that Hillary is still extremely popular among Democrats and her popularity has not suffered with the “rise” of Bernie Sanders. So sorry, folks, Hillary is still very popular with Democrats, and Bernie supporters don’t seem to hate her or dislike her at all, in general. Any rise by Bernie is about Bernie, not about Hillary. ---
**Author:** ![RandMcnally](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b782af/32.png) [@RandMcnally](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RandMcnally)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2015, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/748 "2015-07-15T16:30:40Z")
One thing interesting about the Sanders campaign is they’re making a choice to not talk any negative about other candidates, which is good. Even in the subreddit a poster can’t insult anyone. That way, once Clinton is the nominee, Sanders supporters will hopefully vote. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2015, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/749 "2015-07-15T17:23:27Z")
It’s also evidence that his true function in this campaign is to bracket Clinton from the left, blunting the inevitable “she’s a radical commie” stuff that will come from the same faction that gave us “Kerry is the most liberal member of the Senate”. It isn’t what he’d do if he actually intended to win. Meanwhile, he gets his principles better exposure, and demonstrates their popularity, hopefully also pushing Clinton to adopt them somewhat when she’s President. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2015, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/750 "2015-07-15T19:56:16Z")
Two new polls released on Dem side. [Monmouth](http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/947b4d56-8c7b-4dd4-a2e3-d36b1c78d231.pdf) and [USA Today/Suffolk](http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/7_15_2015_marginals.pdf). Check out the free-fally goodness. ```auto Name Mon USAT Clinton 51 59 Sanders 17 14 Biden 13 8 Webb 1 2 O'Malley 1 0 Chafee 0 0 ``` ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2015, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/751 "2015-07-16T16:21:56Z")
The free-fall continues as Hillary’s favorability rating has [risen 7 points since May](http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1144a50CandidateFavorables.pdf). ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2015, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/752 "2015-07-16T16:35:25Z")
Back in positive territory and _surprisingly_ strong. Especially as one digs into the details: > [@](#): > > Clinton essentially breaks even among independents, while Bush and Trump are under water by 13 and 23 points, respectively, in this group … Clinton also gets at least as good a favorability rating as Bush or Trump among men, whites and seniors – more GOP- than Democratic-leaning groups – as well as scoring much better among women, nonwhites and young adults. … Of course she is not being attacked much at this point. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2015, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/753 "2015-07-16T16:35:36Z")
Please don’t fall into the trap of cherry picking data points and extrapolating a trend from that. What’s annoying from **addy** is annoying from **andy**. You’re only looking at two ABC/WaPo polls and ignoring several other polls that were conducted in between. Here’s the [data](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating) (which does not include your poll yet). ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2015, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/754 "2015-07-16T16:38:47Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > What’s annoying from **addy** is annoying from **andy**. Don’t you DARE! And I was just presenting a new poll, not pontificating on any trend (except to mock the “free-fall” nonsense). ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2015, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/755 "2015-07-16T16:50:34Z")
True but then there is [J Bush’s trendline](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/jeb-bush-favorable-rating) and the details of the subgroups in a same poll compare contrast relative to the two current GOP top dogs. And there is the issue of polling house to polling house variability. Looking for trends staying with one polling house comparisons shows _directional_ reality best, even if the absolute number may be off (it is at least likely to be consistently off by a similar amount in a similar direction). That said long term I still think she will mostly bounce in the upper 40s. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2015, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/756 "2015-07-16T16:58:28Z")
Upon rereading my previous post I realize that I came off as a bigger dick than usual. Sorry about that. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2015, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/757 "2015-07-16T17:03:16Z")
Also, I agree that this poll is good news for Clinton, but I’d like to see a few more polls showing her above water before I consider that to be the case. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2015, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/758 "2015-07-16T17:43:23Z")
No problem – and I’m not ready either to make any conclusion based on the latest couple of polls (except, again, that the “free-fall” stuff is nonsense"). ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2015, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/759 "2015-07-16T18:59:06Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Also, I agree that this poll is good news for Clinton, but I’d like to see a few more polls showing her above water before I consider that to be the case. Wait, does she need a parachute or arm floats? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2015, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/760 "2015-07-16T19:21:08Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > Wait, does she need a parachute or arm floats? Maybe something that can handle both needs. Like the inflatable raft from Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458.md?page=37) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458.md?page=39)