# The Great Un-Fork Hillary Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 12, 2015, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458 "2015-04-12T00:17:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 39
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2015, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/761 "2015-07-22T15:46:22Z")
Actual good news for the Republicans. [Quinnipiac swing state poll](http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/ps07222015_Sg86de.pdf) of Colorado, Iowa, and, Virginia. Clinton trail Bush, Rubio, and Walker in all three states. Colorado: Bush vs. Clinton Bush 41, Clinton 36 Bush +5 Colorado: Walker vs. Clinton Walker 47, Clinton 38 Walker +9 Colorado: Rubio vs. Clinton Rubio 46, Clinton 38 Rubio +8 Virginia: Bush vs. Clinton Bush 42, Clinton 39 Bush +3 Virginia: Walker vs. Clinton Walker 43, Clinton 40 Walker +3 Virginia: Rubio vs. Clinton Rubio 43, Clinton 41 Rubio +2 Iowa: Bush vs. Clinton Bush 42, Clinton 36 Bush +6 Iowa: Walker vs. Clinton Walker 45, Clinton 37 Walker +8 Iowa: Rubio vs. Clinton Rubio 44, Clinton 36 Rubio +8 Should Clinton pack it in? How close is the DNC to pulling its support for Clinton? I’m sure these questions will be answered shortly. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2015, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/762 "2015-07-22T17:21:41Z")
\*How \*many of those swing states does the Republican need again? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2015, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/763 "2015-07-22T17:22:04Z")
Of course she won’t pack it in, nor should she. But it is still evidence that she continues to lose support. Although I’ll have to see at least one more poll before I believe that Republicans have gained that much on her in those states. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2015, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/764 "2015-07-22T18:03:30Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Of course she won’t pack it in, nor should she. But it is still evidence that she continues to lose support. Although I’ll have to see at least one more poll before I believe that Republicans have gained that much on her in those states. I agree with your well thought out and reasonable analysis in this case. Not sarcasm. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2015, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/765 "2015-07-23T04:00:52Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > \*How \*many of those swing states does the Republican need again? Those three plus Ohio and Florida=win. They can actually give up Iowa in that scenario. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2015, 9:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/766 "2015-07-23T09:01:38Z")
Those swing state polls are genuinely worrying for Hillary. Beyond the headline numbers, around 55-60% in the three states don’t think she is honest. If people don’t trust you it’s very difficult to turn that around in a campaign.I would like to see more polls including Ohio and Florida but if these numbers hold up Hillary is in serious trouble. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2015, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/767 "2015-07-23T16:39:35Z")
Yup, this one _surprisingly_ weak. 🙂 Especially in context of general election PPP polls that put her +5 over the main GOP rivals (pretty much as she has been). Hard to see the swing states being 10 to 15 different than the national numbers. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2015, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/768 "2015-07-23T17:30:53Z")
Still, a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2015, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/769 "2015-07-24T02:39:08Z")
Actually it is nice to see _all_ agreeing this time that one poll that gives results that are not consistent with what everyone else is seeing nationally should be handled with healthy doses of skepticism until and unless verified by other houses. It is not impossible that she has specifically cratered in swing states only; it just seems improbable. Anyone know Quinnipiac’s track record and history of volatility? ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2015, 6:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/770 "2015-07-24T06:00:13Z")
[http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating) Hillary’ favorability rating is also on a worrying trajectory. The latest is at 44%. While it was always likely to come down from the 60% she enjoyed a few years back, she probably hoped it would settle down at around 50% which it appeared to do for a while in 2014. In the last four months it has continued to slide. It is now lower than it ever was for Obama in 2011/12. Her Republican opponents have even worse favorability ratings but they are relatively unknown quantities, even Jeb Bush, and have more of an opportunity to re-define themselves in a general election campaign. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2015, 6:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/771 "2015-07-24T06:13:23Z")
Actually, some Republicans are equal or better than Clinton now. Clinton is now -5. Rubio is -4. Walker is -5. Paul is -5. Carson actually has the best favorability, since he’s the only guy who is in positive territory. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2015, 12:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/772 "2015-07-24T12:54:55Z")
Kasich starts out at +3 [http://pollingreport.com/k.htm](http://pollingreport.com/k.htm) ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2015, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/773 "2015-07-24T15:29:40Z")
19 to 16 fav/unfav, with 65 unk/no opinion. IOW “Who’s that?” ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2015, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/774 "2015-07-24T16:17:08Z")
Again, despite that WaPo/ABC poll that put HRC surprisingly at 52% favorability, mid to upper 40s is where she as an actively competing candidate will likely settle into. Not too many people can actively run and keep at 50% plus. Fantasizing that the "no opinions/don’t know"s will overwhelmingly fall into “favorable” is nice stuff to consider in private (while surfing sites that your clear before your spouse sees them) but not based in any reality. She has more people liking her than any other candidate running has … and more disliking her than most of the others as well. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2015, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/775 "2015-07-24T16:50:33Z")
Speaking of freefall… [GOP favorability plummets…among _Republicans_](http://www.people-press.org/2015/07/23/gops-favorability-rating-takes-a-negative-turn/). This is just the break the [del]McCain[/del] [del]Romney[/del] Clinton campaign has been waiting for! Seriously though, one wonders if the Trump-and-Tea-Party cadre are starting to turn off the GOP non-crazy base. Who are unlikely to vote Clinton (or Sanders etc) but might stay home. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2015, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/776 "2015-07-24T17:23:19Z")
That _would_ help eliminate the misconception about who the Republican base truly is now. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2015, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/777 "2015-07-24T23:09:17Z")
Speaking of free fall: > **[Hillary Clinton's favorability among Americans is at its lowest since 2007](https://www.vox.com/2015/7/24/9036895/hillary-clinton-lowest-polls)** > > But at least a majority of people know her name — the same can't be said for her Democratic rivals. Now someone again look at the chart and tell me that isn’t free fall. And given today’s news story, I doubt she’s bottomed. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2015, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/778 "2015-07-24T23:16:45Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Again, despite that WaPo/ABC poll that put HRC surprisingly at 52% favorability, mid to upper 40s is where she as an actively competing candidate will likely settle into. Not too many people can actively run and keep at 50% plus. Fantasizing that the "no opinions/don’t know"s will overwhelmingly fall into “favorable” is nice stuff to consider in private (while surfing sites that your clear before your spouse sees them) but not based in any reality. She has more people liking her than any other candidate running has … and more disliking her than most of the others as well. Actually: Obama was consistently at +25 during his 2008 run. Often as good as +30, and in the 60s. In 2012, he was consistently over 50% during the campaigning stages. HIs job approval was in the mid-40s, but his favorability was higher: > **[Obama: Favorability](https://www.pollingreport.com/obama_fav.htm)** Mitt Romney spent most of the 2012 campaign in positive territory as well, although he went through a really ugly stretch during the primaries. He was back to positive territory once he clinched the nomination though: > **[Political Figures: R (2)](https://www.pollingreport.com/r2.htm)** Most candidates for President actually do maintain at least positive approval and do often get above 50%. An exception is GWB, but even he had more positive polls than negative polls heading into his elections: > **[Bush: Favorability](https://www.pollingreport.com/BushFav.htm)** If Hillary Clinton was to get elected while underwater in approval she’d be Harry Truman. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2015, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/779 "2015-07-25T00:56:52Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Speaking of free fall: > > [Hillary Clinton's favorability among Americans is at its lowest since 2007 | Vox](http://www.vox.com/2015/7/24/9036895/hillary-clinton-lowest-polls) > > Now someone again look at the chart and tell me that isn’t free fall. And given today’s news story, I doubt she’s bottomed. Today’s news turned out to be nearly nothing, but this is just a sign that the campaign has started, and it won’t be a cakewalk for Hillary. That chart covers several years, so it’s hardly a “free fall”… in any case, I’m hopeful that her late decline in the polls may be balanced by the rise of Trump. We’ll see. I’m still quite optimistic. Most of my optimism is based on the same thing it’s been based on for the last few years – the inability of any potential Republican candidate to get through a Republican presidential primary without making himself unacceptable in a general election. Add Trump in the mix and I’m feeling even better. ---
**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2015, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/780 "2015-07-25T01:37:42Z")
Polls. In July 2015. What’s the matter? Can’t anyone find some tea leaves or a fucking dowsing rod? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458.md?page=38) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458.md?page=40)