# The Great Un-Fork Hillary Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 12, 2015, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458 "2015-04-12T00:17:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2015, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/161 "2015-04-16T17:33:57Z")
> [@Mr\_Quatro](#): > > CNN is better maybe? [http://edition.cnn.com/US/9606/22/hillary.book/index.html](http://edition.cnn.com/US/9606/22/hillary.book/index.html) > > Sure it’s 19 years ago, but if true she’s a looney bin and nobody knows it. Talking to dead people is just simply not allowed in normal people. Worth about 1/10 of an eyebrow raise now. I’d still rather that she consult a dead Eleanor Roosevelt than a live Dick Cheney. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2015, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/162 "2015-04-16T17:51:51Z")
> [@Mr\_Quatro](#): > > Talking to dead people is just simply not allowed in normal people. Is that what you tell people at the cemetery who are visiting graves of loved ones? ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2015, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/163 "2015-04-16T18:02:04Z")
Trying to work out an issue or solve your personal problems by imagining what an admirable historical figure might have thought about it is totally, totally unheard of. I did not read Woodward’s book, and this is the first I’ve heard of this. If it was some kind of thought experiment or something like “think about this person you admire and why you admire her, and imagine what she’d say to you,” then it seems kind of non-controversial. Woop-de-do. If she thinks about Eleanor Roosevelt the way a lot of people think about the dead (e.g., “my dad watches over me from heaven”) then I think that’s silly but not that unusual for religious people. If we’re talking about a John Edward talk-to-the-dead kind of thing, then that’s a bigger deal. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2015, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/164 "2015-04-16T19:06:50Z")
Woodward has largely been a hack since just after the Watergate expose. Never more so than when he spent most of the Bush II admin with his nose in Dubya’s junk. ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2015, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/165 "2015-04-16T19:36:36Z")
> [@Mr\_Quatro](#): > > Talking to dead people is just simply not allowed in normal people. As opposed to talking to a mythical sky fairy that we learned about in a Bronze Age fairytale? :dubious: [Here’s something that might put this all into proper context](http://snltranscripts.jt.org/75/75snixon.phtml) :chuckle: > [@](#): > > [President Richard Nixon talking to Abe Lincoln’s portrait] > > [SUPER: “The White House - August 7, 1974”] > > President Richard Nixon: [despairing] Well, Abe, you were lucky. They \*\*shot \*\*you! ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2015, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/166 "2015-04-16T20:55:03Z")
The problem with finding lying so easy is that it becomes a habit, even when it’s totally unnecessary: > **[Hillary Clinton misrepresents family history | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2015/04/16/politics/hillary-clinton-2016-grandparents/index.html)** > > During a conversation on immigration, Hillary Clinton told an audience in Norwalk, Iowa on Wednesday that “all my grandparents, you know, came over here.” The Clinton spokesman excuse is about as lame as it gets. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2015, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/167 "2015-04-16T21:07:43Z")
That’s the best you got? Really? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2015, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/168 "2015-04-16T21:08:29Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The problem with finding lying so easy is that it becomes a habit, even when it’s totally unnecessary: > > [http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/16/politics/hillary-clinton-2016-grandparents/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/16/politics/hillary-clinton-2016-grandparents/index.html) > > The Clinton spokesman excuse is about as lame as it gets. That’s an incredibly weak “lie” – some of her grandparents were born (in the 1880s!) right after their parents immigrated, so she thought of her grandparents as immigrants. I couldn’t tell you where most of my ancestors in the 1880s were born. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2015, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/169 "2015-04-16T21:19:13Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > That’s the best you got? Really? He didn’t say it was the best he’s got-- I think it was meant to be the most recent. But yeah, not much of a issue. She can dodge that one by saying “grandparents” can also be used for a generic term for one’s ancestors. I would say this is less of an “issue” than Rubio’s claim that his parents fled Castro’s Cuba when they, in fact, came here a few years before the revolution. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2015, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/170 "2015-04-16T21:20:17Z")
Sure it’s weak, but it’s just more in the drip, drip, drip of negative stories. CNN has that prominently displayed on their site, with the headline that Clinton “misrepresented”. Alone, it does nothing. Combined with everything else, it just further cements the impression voters have of her. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2015, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/171 "2015-04-16T21:28:55Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Combined with everything else, it just further cements the impression voters have of her. Which is a pretty [good impression](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/clinton_vs_cruz_clinton_vs_paul). > [@](#): > > A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Clinton picking up 47% of the vote to Kentucky Senator Rand Paul’s 37% if the 2016 presidential election was held today. Eleven percent (11%) would choose some other candidate given this matchup, while five percent (5%) are undecided. > [@](#): > > Clinton leads Texas Senator Ted Cruz by nine points - 47% to 38%. Again, 11% prefer some other candidate, while four percent (4%) are undecided. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2015, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/172 "2015-04-16T21:34:42Z")
Name recognition. And if you don’t believe me, Nate Silver: > **[Clinton Begins The 2016 Campaign, And It’s A Toss-up](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-begins-the-2016-campaign-and-its-a-toss-up/)** > > There’s already plenty of bad punditry regarding the chances of Hillary Clinton — who officially announced her candidacy on Sunday — to become the 45th presid… > [@](#): > > Finally we can look at what the polls say right now. If you’re going to do this, you should take the polls with whole tablespoons full of salt. And it’s probably best to look at the favorability ratings for each candidate rather than head-to-head polls, since favorability polls allow voters to say they don’t know enough about the candidates to have formulated an opinion. (Head-to-head polls taken this far out from the election will tend to favor candidates like Clinton with strong name recognition, by contrast. You’ll notice that almost all the Republicans have something like 30-50% of voters with no opinion. If they make a good impression, Clinton will be left in the dust, since 45% already don’t like her and aren’t likely to feel any better about her between now and Nov. 2016. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2015, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/173 "2015-04-16T22:59:42Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If they make a good impression, Clinton will be left in the dust, since 45% already don’t like her and aren’t likely to feel any better about her between now and Nov. 2016. Yes, obviously if a Republican candidate makes a good impression and runs a strong campaign they have a chance to win (but “left in the dust” is hyperbole – I’m not sure if the Republicans, electorally, can do much better than GWB did). I’m optimistic that none of the Republicans are capable of both making a “good impression” and winning the Republican primary. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2015, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/174 "2015-04-16T23:02:19Z")
GWB’s favorability was like 52%, tops. Give us a candidate with a 65% approval rating and he’ll put up 1988 numbers. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2015, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/175 "2015-04-16T23:08:42Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > GWB’s favorability was like 52%, tops. Give us a candidate with a 65% approval rating and he’ll put up 1988 numbers. LOL. Tell us about a candidate with a 90% approval rating! Would they win? How about a candidate with a 10% approval rating – could he/she win? None of the candidates that have announced (or are thinking about it) have any hope of an approval rating in the 60s during the campaign. Not a chance in hell. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2015, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/176 "2015-04-16T23:13:48Z")
I’ll call that a prediction. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2015, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/177 "2015-04-16T23:15:12Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I’ll call that a prediction. Feel free! Are you making a counter-prediction? Do you seriously think any candidate has a chance _during campaign season_ at an approval rating in the 60s? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2015, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/178 "2015-04-16T23:19:53Z")
A chance, yes. John McCain has been above 60% before. And as an article on [538.com](http://538.com) points out, Mccain was uniquely able to distance himself from Bush, ending the election with a 52% approval rating: > **[For Better Or Worse, Clinton Is Likely Stuck Running For Obama’s Third Term](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/for-better-or-worse-clinton-is-likely-stuck-running-for-obamas-third-term/)** > > “Hillary Clinton is running for Barack Obama’s third term.” You’ve heard a version of that argument from many Republicans who want to tie Clinton to a president… Problem was, Obama was in the 60s: [http://www.pollingreport.com/obama\_fav.htm](http://www.pollingreport.com/obama_fav.htm) But Clinton’s probably stuck around 47-48. Opinions of her have been fixed for some time as a candidate for President. If a Republican can merely achieve McCain-like popularity circa Oct. 2008, they’ll do just fine. And 60s isn’t out of the realm of possibility if it’s a fresh face that runs a great campaign. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2015, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/179 "2015-04-16T23:27:23Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > A chance, yes. John McCain has been above 60% before. And as an article on [538.com](http://538.com) points out, Mccain was uniquely able to distance himself from Bush, ending the election with a 52% approval rating: > > [For Better Or Worse, Clinton Is Likely Stuck Running For Obama’s Third Term | FiveThirtyEight](http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/for-better-or-worse-clinton-is-likely-stuck-running-for-obamas-third-term/) > > Problem was, Obama was in the 60s: > > [Obama: Favorability](http://www.pollingreport.com/obama_fav.htm) > > But Clinton’s probably stuck around 47-48. Opinions of her have been fixed for some time as a candidate for President. If a Republican can merely achieve McCain-like popularity circa Oct. 2008, they’ll do just fine. And 60s isn’t out of the realm of possibility if it’s a fresh face that runs a great campaign. That’s favorability, not approval – and I didn’t see McCain’s over-60 approval (or favorability) rating (during campaign season) in your cites. But good find on Obama – I wasn’t aware that it was that high during the campaign. Obama’s a special case, though, as many have pointed out. If the Republicans have an Obama-level candidate up their sleeves, then they’ll easily win (as would the Democrats). But that doesn’t happen often. I still think there’s not a chance in hell any of the Republican candidates are able to get through the primary with a rating in the 60s. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2015, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/180 "2015-04-16T23:29:15Z")
I’m not saying Hillary is a cinch to win – I’m optimistic, but it’s way too early to be anything more than just optimistic. But it’s ridiculous (and pointless) to be making predictions about those kinds of favorability ratings, which are extremely rare and which will very obviously lead to a win. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458.md?page=10)