The whole problem with exercises like this is that deserving players always get left out. You’ll note that Hornsby’s not on my team either, though you can make a compelling case that he should be. As I indicated earlier, Maddux is extremely close to pushing someone else off my list, but whom? I’d like not to lose any lefties, and Newhouser is closest to being on the bubble objectively. I’d also like to keep Wilhelm as the only relief specialist (and a lefty). That would leave only Gibson and Clemens vulnerable; I understand the points made in Maddux’s favor, but there are points to be made the other way as well. Lose Gibson or Clemens and you give up over 900 and over 1200 strikeouts respectively. I don’t worship the K, but it is a negative event for the offense with absolutely no mitigating upside (no opportunity to advance a runner as a result of the play).
I’m also not factoring in Maddux’s performance this year, which has been absolutely consistent with the last several – if anything, he’s likely to end up with better numbers in almost every respect than in the last couple (especially since he’s been nearly untouchable lately – unscored on in the last 30 innings or so). Taking that into account, he might well move up into my staff after as little as one more solid season, though I’d be loathe to lose Gibson for personal reasons: he pitched the very first major league game I saw in person, against the Astros in the Dome in 1971, and I was a die-hard Cardinal fan growing up. If I have to lose either Clemens or Gibson, my head says Gibson goes, my heart says Clemens does.
Barring injury or utter collapse, Maddux will undoubtedly take his place on my list by the time he hangs up his spikes. Clemens is four years older, though he’s only got two years on Maddux in major league experience, and as a power pitcher most of his career he’s more likely to finally wear himself out soon (though many thought he’d have done so before now); I’d expect him to retire well before Maddux does (Maddux could easily put in another four to six years). Take Maddux’s numbers from 1988 to 1999, average them out, and you get a seasonal average of:
W L G GS CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA
18 9 33 33 8 2 0 240 211 70 11 51 170 2.63
Give him five more years (including this one) at that rate (perfectly plausible, though by no means certain), having him retire at 38, and that would make his career totals:
W L G GS CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA
310 171 603 599 131 39 0 4270 3818 1310 214 944 3010 2.76
At that point (indeed, probably sometime well before it), I’d have to take Maddux over Gibson. As it stands, he and Clemens are already lead-pipe cinch Hall of Famers, probably first ballot (though you can never overestimate the perversity of the BBWA).
And yes, I’m well aware of Mordecai Brown’s claims to be included as well (I must have heard Skip Caray trot out his “you could always count on him to give you 60%” line a hundred times or more). Not to mention Carl Hubbell, Whitey Ford, and Ted Lyons. They’re all right on the cusp.
