# The gun violence debate we're not having **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 7, 2017, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-gun-violence-debate-were-not-having/800937 "2017-11-07T03:07:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-gun-violence-debate-were-not-having/800937/101 "2017-11-10T14:49:32Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > A whole whopping 538 pages (looks to be 5,380 individual stories give or take a few)? > > Since 1968 there have been over 1.5 million gun deaths in the US. That is [more Americans killed than in all US wars combined](http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/aug/27/nicholas-kristof/more-americans-killed-guns-1968-all-wars-says-colu/). And your cite goes back to 1958 so you have an added ten years of gun deaths to the number above. > > Those 538 pages are running at about 0.35% of the total (not including the additional ten years so this number will be even lower). Not a number I would crow about. You asked for a stream of stories about DGUs. I provided that. If I had known that you weren’t really interested in that and were going to handwave it away, I wouldn’t have wasted my time with you either. ---
**Author:** ![Paranoid\_Randroid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/paranoid_randroid/32/18_2.png) [@Paranoid\_Randroid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paranoid_Randroid)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-gun-violence-debate-were-not-having/800937/102 "2017-11-10T14:53:29Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Three cites there, in that wiki article. What are the _numbers_, though? The prose in the wikipedia article doesn’t necessarily indicate that suicide rates remained flat or went up after the 1996 law; it could be consistent with an argument that, even if suicide rates dropped, the law had nothing to do with it. Since your claim was that suicide rates didn’t drop, I’d like you to dispute my numbers with numbers showing you’re right – not books I don’t have immediate access to that might not even comport with your original claim. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-gun-violence-debate-were-not-having/800937/103 "2017-11-10T14:59:40Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > You asked for a stream of stories about DGUs. I provided that. If I had known that you weren’t really interested in that and were going to handwave it away, I wouldn’t have wasted my time with you either. What did you expect? I asked for data on guns being used defensively. You provided 5,380 stories spread across nearly 60 years. I am not supposed to note that the instances you provided are a drop in the overall bucket of gun violence in the US? I never said there were no examples of defensive gun use in the US. There are bound to be some. But when talking about gun policy in America it makes sense to put the good and the bad of guns on a balance and so far the good part is looking to be heavily outweighed by the bad. ---
**Author:** ![Paranoid\_Randroid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/paranoid_randroid/32/18_2.png) [@Paranoid\_Randroid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paranoid_Randroid)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-gun-violence-debate-were-not-having/800937/104 "2017-11-10T15:00:51Z")
> [@Paranoid\_Randroid](#): > > What are the _numbers_, though? Take a look at slide 8 on [this presentation](https://www.slideshare.net/EverymindAU/australian-suicide-data-2016-national-summary-80878817), which uses data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Suicide rates peaked in the mid-late nineties and trended down for a decade, and only recently have been creeping back up. If your contention is that this change has nothing to do with restrictive gun ownership laws, fine, but that’s a separate claim. It’s one that I would find extraordinary in the way it goes counter to basic economic reasoning, so I’d like to see someone support it with some kind of argument. But it seems to me that Australian suicide rates did drop. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-gun-violence-debate-were-not-having/800937/105 "2017-11-10T15:16:41Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > What did you expect? > > I asked for data on guns being used defensively. You provided 5,380 stories spread across nearly 60 years. I am not supposed to note that the instances you provided are a drop in the overall bucket of gun violence in the US? > > I never said there were no examples of defensive gun use in the US. There are bound to be some. But when talking about gun policy in America it makes sense to put the good and the bad of guns on a balance and so far the good part is looking to be heavily outweighed by the bad. Ahhh, I see. Your post asked about a “stream of stories”, but you wanted data? Ok then, ask and you shall receive. [Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology - Armed Resistance to Crime: The Prevalence and Nature of Self-Defense with a Gun (PDF)](http://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=6853&context=jclc) > [@](#): > > The most technically sound estimates presented in Table 2 are those based on the shorter one-year recall period that rely on Rs’ firsthand accounts of their own experiences (person-based estimates). These estimates appear in the first two columns. They indicate that **each year in the U.S. there are about 2.2 to 2.5 million DGUs of all types by civilians against humans** , with about 1.5 to 1.9 million of the incidents involving use of handguns. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-gun-violence-debate-were-not-having/800937/106 "2017-11-10T16:34:46Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > A whole whopping 538 pages (looks to be 5,380 individual stories give or take a few)? > > Since 1968 there have been over 1.5 million gun deaths in the US. > . Most of which have been suicides, which IMHO is a basic human right. As long as you Gun Grabbers include suicides in “gun deaths” you are making a totally bonus point. ---
**Author:** ![Paranoid\_Randroid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/paranoid_randroid/32/18_2.png) [@Paranoid\_Randroid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paranoid_Randroid)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-gun-violence-debate-were-not-having/800937/107 "2017-11-10T16:40:39Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Most of which have been suicides, which IMHO is a basic human right. As long as you Gun Grabbers include suicides in “gun deaths” you are making a totally bonus point. There was a time, when I was a teenager, in which – had someone placed a loaded gun next to me and said “Have at it, kid” – it’s pretty likely I would have killed myself. Basic right or not, I’m immeasurably glad today that I never had an easy way out. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-gun-violence-debate-were-not-having/800937/108 "2017-11-10T16:58:56Z")
> [@Paranoid\_Randroid](#): > > There was a time, when I was a teenager, in which – had someone placed a loaded gun next to me and said “Have at it, kid” – it’s pretty likely I would have killed myself. Basic right or not, I’m immeasurably glad today that I never had an easy way out. Sure. Suicide is often a tragedy. But it should not be a crime, and is not violence against others. Thus counting those deaths as some reason why guns should be banned is bogus. No doubt, Mental health needs more emphasis in the uSA, preventing unwanted suicides and yes, often murders. ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-gun-violence-debate-were-not-having/800937/109 "2017-11-10T18:41:59Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Far, far less than smoking does. > > Any socialized medicine nation ban smoking? :dubious: Good point. Isn’t that one way Canada supports their health care program? ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-gun-violence-debate-were-not-having/800937/110 "2017-11-10T20:25:41Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Ahhh, I see. Your post asked about a “stream of stories”, but you wanted data? Ok then, ask and you shall receive. > > [Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology - Armed Resistance to Crime: The Prevalence and Nature of Self-Defense with a Gun (PDF)](http://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=6853&context=jclc) I thought we put paid to that study ages ago. Right off the bat it should not pass the smell test for you. You just provided a link to an NRA website that collects defensive gun use stories. Presumably they are diligent in collecting these stories. They manged roughly 5,380 stories over a 60 year period or about 90/year. Yet you now provide a cite that suggests there are 2.2 - 2.5 million defensive gun uses per year. Do you not find it odd that there are only 90 stories to be found in a given year for something that supposedly happened at least 2.2 million times? Or that there were a bit over [40,000 people shot in 2015](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-34996604) (as an example and not including suicides). Clearly not all of those were defensive gun uses but even if they were that is waaay off the mark of 2.2+ million DGUs you claim with your cite. The study you showed us predicted a 2.81% hit rate for DGUs. That would get us over 60,000 people shot. We’re missing 20,000 shot people here. Remember the study you cited interviewed 5000 people and there were a reported 66 DGUs among that 5000. From that they extrapolated the 2.2+ million number. I expect you will want more than common sense so here are some studies that either refute or imply by their findings that the Kleck study you cite is wrong. > [@](#): > > Two aspects of the K-G survey combine to create severe misestimation. The first is the likelihood of positive social desirability response, sometimes referred to as personal presentation bias. An individual who purchases a gun for self-defense and then uses it successfully to ward off a criminal is displaying the wisdom of his precautions and his capability in protecting himself, his loved ones, and his property. His action is to be commended and admired. Some positive social desirability response bias, by itself, might not lead to serious overestimation. However, combined with a second aspect of the survey-the attempt to estimate a very rare event-it does. The search for a “needle in a haystack” has major methodological dangers, especially where researchers try to extrapolate the findings to society as a whole. > > \ > > The K-G survey design contains a huge overestimation bias. The authors do little to reduce the bias or to validate their findings by external measures. All checks for external validity of the Kleck-Gertz finding confirm that their estimate is highly exaggerated. > > SOURCE: [http://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=6936&context=jclc](http://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=6936&context=jclc) (PFD) A study from Arizona (below) found two DGU killings in a given timeframe where the study you cited would predict 98 DGU killings and 236 DGU firings in the same timeframe. > [@](#): > > There may have been other DGUs that involved only drawing a gun to frighten an assailant. The newspaper does not report those, so we are unaware of the number. If that is the most prevalent type of DGU, it would imply that > unloaded guns may be more effective at preventing crime than loaded guns, because we found no clear cases in which a gun was fired in self defense that did not involve ‘‘mutual combat’’ or firing the gun in a socially irresponsible manner so as to endanger both oneself and others. > > SOURCE: [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1730063/pdf/v010p00096.pdf](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1730063/pdf/v010p00096.pdf) (PDF) There’s more but that is a good start I think. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-gun-violence-debate-were-not-having/800937/111 "2017-11-10T20:42:29Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Most of which have been suicides, which IMHO is a basic human right. As long as you Gun Grabbers include suicides in “gun deaths” you are making a totally bonus point. I agree individuals should be able to end their own life if they so wish with due consideration given before the act. What about the suicides that are impulsive though? Using a gun in a suicide is, more often than not, a final decision. There are very few do-overs. Also, if there were no guns people could still kill themselves so not like eliminating guns removes the ability to commit suicide if that is important to you. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-gun-violence-debate-were-not-having/800937/112 "2017-11-10T20:56:31Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > … You just provided a link to an NRA website that collects defensive gun use stories. Presumably they are diligent in collecting these stories. … I have no reason to believe their effort is comprehensive or anywhere near complete. I strongly suspect they capture just a minuscule fraction of total DGUs. Does that surprise you? You seem to be treating it like it’s the sum total of all DGUs over a 60 year period, and I think that’s a serious error you’re making, repeatedly. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-gun-violence-debate-were-not-having/800937/113 "2017-11-10T21:04:40Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I have no reason to believe their effort is comprehensive or anywhere near complete. I strongly suspect they capture just a minuscule fraction of total DGUs. Does that surprise you? You seem to be treating it like it’s the sum total of all DGUs over a 60 year period, and I think that’s a serious error you’re making, repeatedly. You are the one who provided the link. If you’ve got more by all means lay it out. Also, I am sure the NRA has not captured every DGU use there is but they are probably the most motivated actor out there to do that collection and have the means to do so. They did go back to 1958 for stories so not like they just grabbed the last year or two from a cursory Google search one afternoon. They seemed to put some work in to it. Not sure why’d they’d just leave it at that list you provided if there was more to get. What’s more your cite suggests there are at least 6,000+ DGUs per day, every day in the United States. I don’t expect all of them to be reported but I do not think it is a stretch to expect more than 0.25 stories a day to show up in the media. They love stories where the bad guy gets a big dose of karma on the spot along with a local hero saving the day. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-gun-violence-debate-were-not-having/800937/114 "2017-11-10T21:27:51Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > You are the one who provided the link. I provided the link because you said “I am missing the endless stream of stories of people fending off bad guys with their guns”. I never claimed it was a _complete_ list of all such incidents, just one such “stream of stories”. Your error was in apparently assuming that this particular stream of stories encompassed all DGUs. It does not and I’m not aware of any such comprehensive listing, by the NRA or anyone. Certainly newspaper stories don’t capture all such cases. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-gun-violence-debate-were-not-having/800937/115 "2017-11-10T21:50:09Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I provided the link because you said “I am missing the endless stream of stories of people fending off bad guys with their guns”. I never claimed it was a _complete_ list of all such incidents, just one such “stream of stories”. Your error was in apparently assuming that this particular stream of stories encompassed all DGUs. It does not and I’m not aware of any such comprehensive listing, by the NRA or anyone. Certainly newspaper stories don’t capture all such cases. What thread do you think you are in? Did you really mistake what I asked for as a casual request for a few anecdotes of DGUs in the US? You have put forward a claim that there are literally millions of cases of defensive gun use each year. I am not asking for a comprehensive list of all DGUs ever. I am asking for some evidence of these millions of cases of defensive gun use and not just a handful of stories that in no way suggest they are a sample out of millions. I do not think it is unreasonable to suppose this evidence exists if it is happening over 6,000 times a day, every day, in the US. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-gun-violence-debate-were-not-having/800937/116 "2017-11-10T22:01:21Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > I agree individuals should be able to end their own life if they so wish with due consideration given before the act. > > What about the suicides that are impulsive though? Using a gun in a suicide is, more often than not, a final decision. There are very few do-overs. > > Also, if there were no guns people could still kill themselves so not like eliminating guns removes the ability to commit suicide if that is important to you. Sure. A tragedy, but not a crime. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-gun-violence-debate-were-not-having/800937/117 "2017-11-10T22:07:29Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > … Did you really mistake what I asked for as a casual request for a few anecdotes of DGUs in the US? … I took the words “I am missing the endless stream of stories of people fending off bad guys with their guns” as an admission of ignorance, and one that was readily-correctible, so I jumped in to help. > [@](#): > > You have put forward a claim that there are literally millions of cases of defensive gun use each year. I am not asking for a comprehensive list of all DGUs ever. I am asking for some evidence of these millions of cases of defensive gun use … I provided you “some evidence”, in post #105. I offer it up as one data point. Certainly there are others, and each one has it’s own strengths and weaknesses. None are perfect, and in this life I suspect the best we’ll get are some reasonable guesses about the # of DGUs. I don’t expect we’ll ever have a definitive total, given the limitations in reporting methods available to us. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-gun-violence-debate-were-not-having/800937/118 "2017-11-10T22:20:09Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I took the words “I am missing the endless stream of stories of people fending off bad guys with their guns” as an admission of ignorance, and one that was readily-correctible, so I jumped in to help. You missed a part (bolding mine): > [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > One would suppose then that with so many guns about **we should have abundant examples of guns being used to save people** from all sorts of bad things. > > **Certainly we have anecdotes** of that happening but I am missing the endless stream of stories of people fending off bad guys with their guns. Then you went ahead and gave me the anecdotes I did not ask for. > [@](#): > > I provided you “some evidence”, in post #105. I offer it up as one data point. Certainly there are others, and each one has it’s own strengths and weaknesses. None are perfect, and in this life I suspect the best we’ll get are some reasonable guesses about the # of DGUs. I don’t expect we’ll ever have a definitive total, given the limitations in reporting methods available to us. Great…thanks for the cite that there are 2.2+ million DGUs in the US each year. As we often do on this message board I challenged the data that cite offered. The question is do you still think 2.2+ million DGUs is remotely close to the real number or whether it is wildly inflated? ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-gun-violence-debate-were-not-having/800937/119 "2017-11-10T22:44:59Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Sure. A tragedy, but not a crime. While it used to be illegal to commit suicide in some states I do not think there are any states left where it is still illegal to commit suicide. ---
**Author:** ![g8rguy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/7cd45c/32.png) [@g8rguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/g8rguy)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-gun-violence-debate-were-not-having/800937/120 "2017-11-10T22:58:53Z")
> [@PatrickLondon](#): > > Not quite ban outright, but increasingly restrict and discourage: [point-of-sale](http://smokefreeaction.org.uk/smokefree/point-of-sale-display/) and [packaging](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/19/stricter-cigarette-packaging-rules-come-into-force-in-uk) displays, no smoking in [enclosed public premises](http://www.smokefreeengland.co.uk/what-do-i-do/quick-guide/). Specifically in the medical sphere, constant [re-checking/reminders about smoking](https://www.nhs.uk/Livewell/smoking/Pages/WhatyourGPcando.aspx) (especially if presenting with relevant symptoms) and referral to [smoking cessation services within the state system](https://www.nhs.uk/smokefree/help-and-advice) (well, in this country at least for the last, I don’t know what others do about that part of it). > > We haven’t quite yet reached the same degree of controls on smoking as for guns, but the prevailing social and cultural assumption is much the same: if you must, but no more than (and subject to the conditions and restrictions that) the community as a whole considers necessary, and keep it away from the rest of us. We should also add alcohol to the list. [Here](https://www.drugabuse.gov/related-topics/trends-statistics) the government estimates smoking cost the US about $300 billion and alcohol cost about $250 billion in 2010. We certainly restrict alcohol and tobacco to some extent, but their costs are comparable per this one data point. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-gun-violence-debate-were-not-having/800937.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-gun-violence-debate-were-not-having/800937.md?page=7)