# The Hackett Factor: Portent of Disaster or Harbiner of Doom? **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [August 3, 2005, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-hackett-factor-portent-of-disaster-or-harbiner-of-doom/315379 "2005-08-03T00:41:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2005, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-hackett-factor-portent-of-disaster-or-harbiner-of-doom/315379/21 "2005-08-03T02:06:22Z")
> [@NurseCarmen](#): > > There is also a cheeseburger of doom, and a cooler of doom, and hairbrainer of doom. I’ll have the cheeseburger of doom, with a side of perilous fries, and a small cola of uncertainty. ---
**Author:** ![Bill\_Door](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@Bill\_Door](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bill_Door)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2005, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-hackett-factor-portent-of-disaster-or-harbiner-of-doom/315379/22 "2005-08-03T02:08:25Z")
> [@Bill Door](#): > > I just took a look at preliminary results. As of 8:59 pm EDT and with 84% of the precincts reported the total vote was 15,207 votes cast out of 60,900 registered voters. With a clear difference between the two candidates 3 out of 4 voters didn’t bother to show up. Pitiful. I should have stated that my results were from Warren County, where I live. I’m hoping the rest of the district got a better turnout than that. The final results for Warren County were: REGISTERED VOTERS - TOTAL 73,878 BALLOTS CAST - TOTAL 18,320 24.80 REPRESENTATIVE TO CONGRESS 2ND DISTRICT UNEXPIRED TERM ONE TO BE ELECTED PAUL HACKETT DEM 5,420 41.77 JEAN SCHMIDT REP 7,556 58.23 ---
**Author:** ![NurseCarmen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5daacb/32.png) [@NurseCarmen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NurseCarmen)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2005, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-hackett-factor-portent-of-disaster-or-harbiner-of-doom/315379/23 "2005-08-03T02:16:22Z")
So **BillDoor** , Hackett lost Warren 41.77% to 58.23%, do you have any insight as to the ratio of Republican to Dem votes in 2004? It would be interesting to see if there was any movement. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2005, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-hackett-factor-portent-of-disaster-or-harbiner-of-doom/315379/24 "2005-08-03T02:32:53Z")
> [@NurseCarmen](#): > > So **BillDoor** , Hackett lost Warren 41.77% to 58.23%, do you have any insight as to the ratio of Republican to Dem votes in 2004? It would be interesting to see if there was any movement. Bush beat Kerry by **72% to 28%** , a major reversal. [http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/OH/P/00/county.003.html](http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/OH/P/00/county.003.html) ---
**Author:** ![PigBoy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/97f17d/32.png) [@PigBoy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PigBoy)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2005, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-hackett-factor-portent-of-disaster-or-harbiner-of-doom/315379/25 "2005-08-03T02:39:01Z")
This race is 50-50 now, but apparently the only votes not in yet are from Clermont County, which is basically suburban and will probably produce similar numbers as **Bill Door** ’s report from Warren County. So I expect this will go to the Republicans, but by a damn close margin for this district. > [@Fear Itself](#): > > > [@](#): > > > > Originally Posted by NurseCarmen > > So BillDoor, Hackett lost Warren 41.77% to 58.23%, do you have any insight as to the ratio of Republican to Dem votes in 2004? It would be interesting to see if there was any movement. > > Bush beat Kerry by 72% to 28%, a major reversal. > > [http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pa...county.003.html](http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pa...county.003.html) The congressional race in Warren County (the part of the county in this district) had about the same margin. While the shift is notable, it’s probably due to special circumstances, and it probably doesn’t mean much in the long run. I don’t see metropolitan Cincinnati giving up its Republicanism any time soon. The rural counties in this district are also interesting, though. They seem to have gone pretty strongly to Hackett this time; they voted Republican in the last election. Maybe his attack ads against Schmidt worked… he calls her a politician “in the Bob Taft mold”. Taft is not a Republican to associate with right now; he’s the least popular governor in the country. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2005, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-hackett-factor-portent-of-disaster-or-harbiner-of-doom/315379/26 "2005-08-03T02:42:35Z")
Boy, that’s right. Here in Ohio all the democrats who will be going after the Governor’s office are essentially planning to say ‘we’re not Taft and Taft is a Republican’. And the Republican’s are sort of planning the same thing. A complete disassociation with the incumbent even though he’s part of their own party. Gonna be a weird election cycle next year. As for this one it’s yet to be seen whether this is just an oddball or an early sign of the typical ‘President lose ground in off year of 2nd term’ thing. Way too early to draw a conclusion. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2005, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-hackett-factor-portent-of-disaster-or-harbiner-of-doom/315379/27 "2005-08-03T02:47:05Z")
> [@PigBoy](#): > > The congressional race in Warren County (the part of the county in this district) had about the same margin. Yep, Portman (R) over Sanders (D) in Warren County, 78% to 22% . [http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/OH/H/02/county.000.html](http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/OH/H/02/county.000.html) ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2005, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-hackett-factor-portent-of-disaster-or-harbiner-of-doom/315379/28 "2005-08-03T03:02:20Z")
> [@Jonathan Chance](#): > > …And the Republican’s are sort of planning the same thing. A complete disassociation with the incumbent even though he’s part of their own party… That would be this governor fellow, right? (Ohio guys, always a bit too fond of ambiguity and nuance…) ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2005, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-hackett-factor-portent-of-disaster-or-harbiner-of-doom/315379/29 "2005-08-03T03:06:50Z")
> [@](#): > > US HOUSE Ohio 2nd Dist > 753 precincts of 753 reporting > JEAN SCHMIDT 57,974 52% > PAUL HACKETT 54,401 48% [here](http://www.wcpo.com/news/2005/local/08/02/election_results.html) ---
**Author:** ![Chance\_the\_Gardener](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/eada6e/32.png) [@Chance\_the\_Gardener](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chance_the_Gardener)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2005, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-hackett-factor-portent-of-disaster-or-harbiner-of-doom/315379/30 "2005-08-03T03:07:17Z")
Hackett’s doing exceptionally well in the rural districts because of comments like, “I believe that gun control is when you hit what you aim your gun at.” That sort of thing, um, strikes a chord with rural voters. That he’s a veteran sure counts for something in this race, but I’d bet dollars to hollowpoints that his openly gun-friendly politics count for more. And, as **PigBoy** pointed out, the utter exasperation with Taft is having its effect. I know quite a few Ohioans, and all of them nearly spit whenever they say that man’s name. Of course, the Ohioans I know come from northeast Ohio, which is more Democratic than the rest of the state, but the fact remains that brand Taft is damaged goods, and can only hurt the Republican candidate in this race. I can’t wait for Ohio’s gubernatorial race next year. Taft will certainly be of no use to the Republican candidate, but what I’m wondering is: will his taint hurt the Republican candidate? I don’t know much about who the candidates might be, but it looks like conditions are pretty good for the Democrats to move back into Columbus next year. Mike DeWine could be in trouble, too, but I have a hunch he’ll keep his job. ---
**Author:** ![NurseCarmen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5daacb/32.png) [@NurseCarmen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NurseCarmen)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2005, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-hackett-factor-portent-of-disaster-or-harbiner-of-doom/315379/31 "2005-08-03T03:14:06Z")
Total (88% reporting) Schmidt 49644 (50%) Hackett 48751 (50%) by county Pike (100% reporting) H 2659 (63%) (Kerry 48% in 2004) S 1559 (37%) (Bush 52% in 2004) Scioto (100%) H 4925 (65%) (48% Kerry in 2004) S 2638 (35%) (52% Bush in 2004) Adams (100%) H 2101 (52%) (36% Kerry in 2004) S 1911 (48%) (64% Bush in 2004) Brown (100%) H 3950 (56%) (36% Kerry in 2004) S 3100 (44%) (64% Bush in 2004) Warren (100%) S 7556 (58%) (72% Bush in 2004) H 5420 (42%) (28% Kerry in 2004) Hamilton (100%) S 25011 (51%) (53% Bush in 2004) H 23597 (49%) (47% Kerry in 2004) Clermont (52% reporting) S 7869 (56%) (71% Bush in 2004) H 6099 (44%) (29% Kerry in 2004) Bush was as strong in Clermont as he was in Warren in 2004. Looks like Hackett loses this one in a squeaker. I find it curious that Hackett sees an at least 15% increase in every single county except for _it’s most heavily Democratic and populous_ county, Hamilton. ---
**Author:** ![NurseCarmen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5daacb/32.png) [@NurseCarmen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NurseCarmen)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2005, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-hackett-factor-portent-of-disaster-or-harbiner-of-doom/315379/32 "2005-08-03T03:16:59Z")
Okay, after reviewing my last post, I’ll admit that I should be wearing a tinfoil hat, but da-amn if there aint a pattern emerging in these close races. ---
**Author:** ![PigBoy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/97f17d/32.png) [@PigBoy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PigBoy)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2005, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-hackett-factor-portent-of-disaster-or-harbiner-of-doom/315379/33 "2005-08-03T03:23:28Z")
> [@NurseCarmen](#): > > I find it curious that Hackett sees an at least 15% increase in every single county except for _it’s most heavily Democratic and populous_ county, Hamilton. Well, the 2nd District includes only a portion of Hamilton County, and I don’t suppose it’s a particularly Democratic portion. (The Democractic areas are probably mostly central Cincinnati; this part looks like mainly some eastern suburbs.) The Congressional race in this part of the county was 70-30 in favor of the Republican Rob Portman in 2004, although it should be remembered that he had the advantage incumbency. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2005, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-hackett-factor-portent-of-disaster-or-harbiner-of-doom/315379/34 "2005-08-03T03:40:28Z")
> [@NurseCarmen](#): > > Okay, after reviewing my last post, I’ll admit that I should be wearing a tinfoil hat… Remember: always fold the foil _parallel_ to true magnetic north, otherwise, the protection against telepathic rays will be compromised. ---
**Author:** ![Wolfian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/7ea924/32.png) [@Wolfian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wolfian)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2005, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-hackett-factor-portent-of-disaster-or-harbiner-of-doom/315379/35 "2005-08-03T03:41:50Z")
> [@Jonathan Chance](#): > > Gonna be a weird election cycle next year. I’m moving to Cincinnati in a month. Just what am I walking into politically? Apparently the governor is in a scandal, but I’m from New Jersey so I’m used to that 😉 . ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2005, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-hackett-factor-portent-of-disaster-or-harbiner-of-doom/315379/36 "2005-08-03T03:56:06Z")
_Daily Kos_ says its over, Hackett lost by four points. Offered without comment. ---
**Author:** ![Beware\_of\_Doug](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/278dde/32.png) [@Beware\_of\_Doug](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beware_of_Doug)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2005, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-hackett-factor-portent-of-disaster-or-harbiner-of-doom/315379/37 "2005-08-03T04:27:54Z")
> [@Wolfian](#): > > I’m moving to Cincinnati in a month. Just what am I walking into politically? Apparently the governor is in a scandal, but I’m from New Jersey so I’m used to that 😉 . Just be very, very nice to your local Gauleiter and you should be fine. :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Wolfian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/7ea924/32.png) [@Wolfian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wolfian)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2005, 4:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-hackett-factor-portent-of-disaster-or-harbiner-of-doom/315379/38 "2005-08-03T04:45:51Z")
> [@Beware of Doug](#): > > Just be very, very nice to your local Gauleiter and you should be fine. > :dubious: :eek: [Blues Brothers]I fuckin’ hate the fuckin’ Nazis.[/BB] ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2005, 11:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-hackett-factor-portent-of-disaster-or-harbiner-of-doom/315379/39 "2005-08-03T11:30:59Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Ms Schmidt appears to be running on a platform of I Love The Leader! Mr. Hacketts platform: The Leader Bites It! If your analysis above is correct, and given the results… then it would seem absolutely clear… …that Diebold was somehow involved!! Also, cell phone users probably weren’t polled correctly. And police intimidated African-American voters! Did I leave any possibility out? ---
**Author:** ![nameless](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/779978/32.png) [@nameless](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nameless)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2005, 11:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-hackett-factor-portent-of-disaster-or-harbiner-of-doom/315379/40 "2005-08-03T11:49:21Z")
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