# The highly specific, verifiable prediction thread about Trump, Biden, etc **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 24, 2020, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-highly-specific-verifiable-prediction-thread-about-trump-biden-etc/926361 "2020-11-24T17:07:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![ChockFullOfHeadyGoodness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chockfullofheadygoodness/32/511_2.png) [@ChockFullOfHeadyGoodness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ChockFullOfHeadyGoodness)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2021, 6:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-highly-specific-verifiable-prediction-thread-about-trump-biden-etc/926361/81 "2021-07-13T06:17:26Z")
> [@ChockFullOfHeadyGoodness](#): > > Between 12:01 pm 1/20/2021 and 11:59 pm 7/4/2021 (EST), Trump will file official paperwork for his 2024 Presidential run. Missed another one. He’s made a lot of noise, but hasn’t taken any official action. (And he may never - playing kingmaker is fun and a lot less work) Out of my 11 non-joke predictions, I have 2 right, 2 wrong and 7 too soon to judge. ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2021, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-highly-specific-verifiable-prediction-thread-about-trump-biden-etc/926361/82 "2021-07-14T14:49:59Z")
I’m wrong on two counts of three so far, and Cruz option is looking increasingly less likely, given events at the recent CPAC ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2021, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-highly-specific-verifiable-prediction-thread-about-trump-biden-etc/926361/83 "2021-07-14T18:07:38Z")
Here’s some additional predictions. 1. Assuming he is still alive, Trump will run in 2024. I’m defining that as being on the ballot and not having dropped out as of the Iowa caucuses (or whichever primary or caucus comes first in 2024 should that change). 2. I predict the Democrats will keep the Senate but lose the House in the 2022 midterms. 3. I predict that if Biden wins in 2024, this will include retaking the House and keeping the Senate. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2022, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-highly-specific-verifiable-prediction-thread-about-trump-biden-etc/926361/84 "2022-01-02T00:21:08Z")
> [@thorny\_locust](#): > > I predict > > 1. that Trump will leave the USA at some point in 2021, and won’t return unless/until he thinks he’s not at risk for any criminal charges he can’t buy his way out of. He won’t say he’s expatriating; he’ll say he’s going on vacation, or touring his properties or looking at places to buy more properties, or visiting important world leaders, or something of that sort. That part of my three-part prediction appears to be wrong. As far as I know he’s still in the USA. (Bah, grumble.) ---
**Author:** ![CairoCarol](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cairocarol/32/3825_2.png) [@CairoCarol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CairoCarol)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2022, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-highly-specific-verifiable-prediction-thread-about-trump-biden-etc/926361/85 "2022-01-02T00:42:14Z")
Hah, I’d forgotten all about this thread. Let’s see how I’m doing: - At least one citizen will die as a direct result of violence at a rally supporting Trump on or before January 20, 2021. **CORRECT** - Trump will pardon a variety of people on his way out but will not attempt to pardon himself. **CORRECT** - Melania Trump will not divorce Donald in the next four years. **So far correct but it hasn’t been four years yet so we can’t say for sure** - Trump will not attend the inauguration (duh - I bet no one here will predict otherwise). **CORRECT (but a no-brainer)** - Formal charges will be brought by New York against Trump for tax evasion, fraud, and/or other crimes. Still in play, looks like it will be correct? - Trump will appear at least once in court. **Too soon to say** - Trump will then become “too ill” to attend court proceedings. **Too soon to say, but I’m guessing incorrect** - Trump will be convicted of something or other, but will never serve time in prison. **Too soon to say, but so far it seems the slippery bastard may never be convicted of anything** - Trump will not run for president in 2024. **Too soon to say** - Pence will run for president in 2024 but won’t be the GOP nominee. **Too soon to say** - Joe Biden will die in office. **Too soon to say** - Kamala Harris will run for president in 2024. **Too soon to say** ---
**Author:** ![Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/son_of_a_rich/32/5439_2.png) [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Son_of_a_Rich)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2022, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-highly-specific-verifiable-prediction-thread-about-trump-biden-etc/926361/86 "2022-01-07T16:47:58Z")
> [@CairoCarol](#): > > Melania Trump will not divorce Donald in the next four years. **So far correct but it hasn’t been four years yet so we can’t say for sure** What the hell is stopping her? Love? Yuck! ---
**Author:** ![romansperson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/romansperson/32/17100_2.png) [@romansperson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/romansperson)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2022, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-highly-specific-verifiable-prediction-thread-about-trump-biden-etc/926361/87 "2022-01-07T16:52:55Z")
$$$ - especially making sure that her son doesn’t get screwed out of his inheritance. She knows how that family operates. ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2022, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-highly-specific-verifiable-prediction-thread-about-trump-biden-etc/926361/88 "2022-01-07T16:55:43Z")
> [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](#): > > What the hell is stopping her? Love? Yuck! Oh she adores the big lug [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/G4oCCIeP7MQ/hqdefault.jpg "Former President Donald Trump attends World Series Game 4") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4oCCIeP7MQ&t=23) ---
**Author:** ![wguy123](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wguy123/32/3161_2.png) [@wguy123](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wguy123)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2022, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-highly-specific-verifiable-prediction-thread-about-trump-biden-etc/926361/89 "2022-01-07T18:17:03Z")
Those two love birds cannot keep their hands off each other. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/TYYkgkQwJf0/hqdefault.jpg "The Best Of Melania's Presidential Hand Swats") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYYkgkQwJf0) ---
**Author:** ![Ann\_Hedonia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ann_hedonia/32/319_2.png) [@Ann\_Hedonia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ann_Hedonia)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2022, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-highly-specific-verifiable-prediction-thread-about-trump-biden-etc/926361/90 "2022-01-07T18:54:26Z")
Melania’s a grifter, just like her husband. Link is not paywalled > **[Opinion | Melania Trump and the art of the NFT grift](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/01/06/melania-trump-hat-nft-grift/?pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJzdWJpZCI6IjQ1Njg4NzciLCJyZWFzb24iOiJnaWZ0IiwibmJmIjoxNjQxNTgxNDE5LCJpc3MiOiJzdWJzY3JpcHRpb25zIiwiZXhwIjoxNjQyNzkxMDE5LCJpYXQiOjE2NDE1ODE0MTksImp0aSI6ImZhZGY0Zjk2LTVkYWMtNGEzOC05ZTVhLTc2ZmFhMzIyZTQxZSIsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lndhc2hpbmd0b25wb3N0LmNvbS9vcGluaW9ucy8yMDIyLzAxLzA2L21lbGFuaWEtdHJ1bXAtaGF0LW5mdC1ncmlmdC8ifQ.tw1iS4dlR0jtRRh53AIKxDTJe7HJ267BPmrYS956oXw&itid=gfta)** > > The enigmatic former first lady displays a very Trumpian interest in making fast money — actually, fast cryptocurrency. ---
**Author:** ![ChockFullOfHeadyGoodness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chockfullofheadygoodness/32/511_2.png) [@ChockFullOfHeadyGoodness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ChockFullOfHeadyGoodness)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2023, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-highly-specific-verifiable-prediction-thread-about-trump-biden-etc/926361/91 "2023-02-14T22:17:46Z")
Bumpity-bump [Dianne Feinstein’s announcement that she will retire at the end of her current term](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dianne-feinstein-2024-will-not-run-for-senate-reelection-announcement-today-2023-02-14/) reminded me of this thread. Now I am at 3 correct, 3 wrong, 4 too soon to say - Trump will not concede prior to the counting of Electoral College votes in Congress on 1/6/2021.I’m not predicting he will afterwards, just definitely not before. **Correct** - Trump will not attend Biden’s inauguration **Correct** - By 1:00 pm EST 1/20/2021, Trump will have tweeted his inaugural crowd was bigger. **Missed - Trump was banned from Twitter at the time** - Between 12:01 pm 1/20/2021 and 11:59 pm 7/4/2021 (EST), Trump will file official paperwork for his 2024 Presidential run. No prediction as to party - Could be GOP, could try starting a 3rd party. **Missed - Didn’t announce until 11/2022** - Trump will not spend a single night of the rest of his life in a US prison. House arrest, maybe - prison, 0.000% probability. I wouldn’t object to being wrong on this one. **Too soon to tell** - The Republican response to Biden’s first State of the Union address will contain the phrases “Hunter Biden”, “Burisma” and “fraud”. **Looks like I was off by a year** - Bernie Sanders will not run again in the Democratic primaries for president. **Too soon** - If the GOP retakes the House in the 2022 midterms, the House will initiate impeachment hearings no later than June 30, 2024. They may not actually impeach, but they will make a lot of noise. **Too soon** - Senior California Senator Dianne Feinstein will not run for reelection in 2024. Sometime between the November 2022 midterm election and June 30, 2023, she will announce she is retiring at the end of her term **Correct as of today** - When Jimmy Carter passes on, Trump will not attend the funeral. All other living former presidents will attend. **Too soon** ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2023, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-highly-specific-verifiable-prediction-thread-about-trump-biden-etc/926361/92 "2023-02-14T23:34:18Z")
Ooh, checkback time! [quote=“Fretful\_Porpentine, post:9, topic:926361”] – Biden will appoint, or try to appoint, at least one sitting _Republican_ senator to a Cabinet post.[/quote] Nope. > [@Fretful\_Porpentine](#): > > Sitting Democrats, other than Harris herself, are out of luck. Yep. (I’m pretty sure I meant this to be only about senators, not sitting representatives, governors, etc.) > [@Fretful\_Porpentine](#): > > Trump himself will not be convicted of any crimes Accurate so far. > [@Fretful\_Porpentine](#): > > but there will be a steady drumbeat of revelations about other Trump administration officials’ actions that will lead to some of _them_ being prosecuted and convicted. I … think? Can’t even remember now who has been convicted, or of what. > [@Fretful\_Porpentine](#): > > Trump will sulk and fume on TV a whole lot. OK, this one was pretty much a gimme. > [@Fretful\_Porpentine](#): > > There will be a whole lot of handwringing and doomsaying over the next two years about the midterm elections, but unlike 1994 and 2010, 2022 will not be a “red wave.” It’s possible that the Democrats could still lose the House, since their margin is so tiny, but relatively few seats overall will flip. Spot ON. Go me! > [@Fretful\_Porpentine](#): > > Biden will decide not to run for a second term, but won’t announce this until fairly late in his first term. Jury still out on this one, although I think it’s much less likely to happen now than I did two years ago. > [@Fretful\_Porpentine](#): > > Harris will run in 2024, but will face a tough, competitive primary fight. Ditto. > [@Fretful\_Porpentine](#): > > Either Trump himself or one of his children will run… Yes. > [@Fretful\_Porpentine](#): > > … but will not end up being the nominee. TBD. Kind of a mixed bag, but I did succeed in calling the midterm results two years out! ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2023, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-highly-specific-verifiable-prediction-thread-about-trump-biden-etc/926361/93 "2023-02-15T00:44:59Z")
> [@thorny\_locust](#): > > - that Trump will leave the USA at some point in 2021, and won’t return unless/until he thinks he’s not at risk for any criminal charges he can’t buy his way out of. He won’t say he’s expatriating; he’ll say he’s going on vacation, or touring his properties or looking at places to buy more properties, or visiting important world leaders, or something of that sort. > - Whether or not he’s in the USA, Trump will continue to fund raise ostensibly for political purposes, saying that he’s going to make another run in 2024; but 3) he won’t actually do so. > - By 2027 and possibly sooner, pollsters trying to find out whether and how the political mood has shifted will find an implausibly small number of people willing to admit that they voted for Trump in 2020. Prediction one: as already acknowledged earlier in the thread, I was wrong about that. Prediction 2: first half correct; second half apparently false, though we’re really early in the campaign. Prediction 3: too soon to tell about 2027, but doesn’t seem to have happened yet. > [@thorny\_locust](#): > > > [@Temporary\_Name](#): > > > > I believe Trump will be at the inauguration and try to draw as much attention to himself as possible. He will also say or do insane shit that completely derails coverage and changes the story from a positive, hopeful start of an administration into a dysfunctional circus with him in the center ring. He will know by then this will be his last time on camera for quite a while > > I predict that if this actually happens the cameras and microphones will be turned away from him and firmly focused elsewhere. Moot, because he wasn’t there. > [@thorny\_locust](#): > > But I doubt Trump’s even going to show up at the inauguration. That one was accurate. ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2023, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-highly-specific-verifiable-prediction-thread-about-trump-biden-etc/926361/94 "2023-02-15T21:53:29Z")
> [@Cardigan](#): > > - The Dow Jones will experience a long overdue massive market correction within the next 180 days. Like below 16k > - Ted Cruz will be the GOP Presidential nominee in 2024 > - Republicans will win both GA senate seats in January. Mitch will retain leadership Let’s see…I was wrong on numbers one and three, and almost certainly two as well. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2024, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-highly-specific-verifiable-prediction-thread-about-trump-biden-etc/926361/95 "2024-08-31T20:51:25Z")
I came across this prediction I made in 2021 – in hindsight, it seems pretty obvious: > [@Can the GOP avoid nominating Trump in 2024?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-gop-avoid-nominating-trump-in-2024/950828/34): > > I’ll make a prediction (which might as well be a guess, this early) - if he’s still in good health and not in prison, he will either run in 2024 or he will work to sink the Republican candidate (and would probably succeed in that case). His ego and personal grievances will never allow him to step back from politics. He will devote the rest of his life to regaining power and getting revenge on those he thinks betrayed or victimized him. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-highly-specific-verifiable-prediction-thread-about-trump-biden-etc/926361.md?page=4)