# The idea that many of us had COVID-19 in late Jan/early Feb **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [April 22, 2020, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-idea-that-many-of-us-had-covid-19-in-late-jan-early-feb/852342 "2020-04-22T13:34:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2020, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-idea-that-many-of-us-had-covid-19-in-late-jan-early-feb/852342/61 "2020-06-18T13:55:17Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > …Even when the news is reporting that a zebra has escaped from the zoo, hoofbeats are still more likely to be a horse. And when you see the equine in question and it’s uniform in color, it’s even less likely to be a zebra. “Likely,” sure. But likelihoods, percentages, and odds only apply to groups. They only suggest but do not identify what happens or has happened to individuals. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2020, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-idea-that-many-of-us-had-covid-19-in-late-jan-early-feb/852342/62 "2020-06-18T14:33:50Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > So, she was the sort of person who dies from the flu, with flu-like symptoms, in a time and place where the flu was very common, and not at all the sort of person who dies from COVID, in a time and place where COVID was very rare, and you think that… sure sounds like COVID? > > Even when the news is reporting that a zebra has escaped from the zoo, hoofbeats are still more likely to be a horse. And when you see the equine in question and it’s uniform in color, it’s even less likely to be a zebra. It’s not so much the symptoms, but the combination of the symptoms, outcome, location and timing. Had she not died, in Washington state, in January, of something with the same symptoms, I would be extremely skeptical. As it is, I’m not entirely convinced that it was COVID-19, but I’m also not convinced it wasn’t COVID-19. I think it’s interesting that there are a bunch of anecdotal reports of something that matches up pretty close to the reported COVID-19 symptoms, and that TPTB keep revising the first-case dates backward. Correlation doesn’t equal causation, but it is a reason to investigate, and I think we shouldn’t just assume that anything before a particular date was the flu. There may be some aspects of this that we’re not aware of yet, or that we’ll only find out through some pretty intense analysis of historical data. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2020, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-idea-that-many-of-us-had-covid-19-in-late-jan-early-feb/852342/63 "2020-06-18T14:58:43Z")
> [@bump](#): > > …There may be some aspects of this that we’re not aware of yet… That seems to be the ONE thing we can be sure of. :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2020, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-idea-that-many-of-us-had-covid-19-in-late-jan-early-feb/852342/64 "2020-06-18T15:02:07Z")
But the outcome is a strong reason to suspect that it wasn’t COVID-19. 30somethings with no health complications are extremely unlikely to die of COVID-19 (has there even been a single documented case of that happening?). And yes, it’s possible that any one single isolated case is an exception, but that’s not the way to bet. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2020, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-idea-that-many-of-us-had-covid-19-in-late-jan-early-feb/852342/65 "2020-06-18T15:19:45Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > But the outcome is a strong reason to suspect that it wasn’t COVID-19. 30somethings with no health complications are extremely \*\*unlikely \*\*to die of COVID-19 (has there even been a single documented case of that happening?). And yes, it’s possible that any one single isolated case is an exception, but that’s not the **way to bet**. My bold. There’s that word “unlikely” again. And I’m not betting either way. It is a possibility. And there’s no way of knowing. Apparently some [young people are now dying](https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=young+people+die+of+covid). I don’t want to get into a debate on this, especially since the board is about to go belly-up in the next few– ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2020, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-idea-that-many-of-us-had-covid-19-in-late-jan-early-feb/852342/66 "2020-06-18T15:54:30Z")
Yes, it’s a possibility. And it’s also a possibility that Abraham Lincoln had it. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2020, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-idea-that-many-of-us-had-covid-19-in-late-jan-early-feb/852342/67 "2020-06-18T16:38:27Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > I’ve read many accounts from hospitals that the symptoms and course of severe cases of COVID-19 are unusual and distinctive. How on earth is it possible that the virus could have been spreading so much earlier and causing mild flu-like symptoms in some people, yet _not_ hospitalizing and killing vulnerable people as it does now? Maybe if you get extremely ill. Maybe from chest x-rays. But the cases mild enough to stay home just sound like every other viral bug out there. > [@Ruken](#): > > Yep. I’ve had unspecified “colds” that left me with anosmia. The COVID-19 symptoms are so common that it’s really hard to know anything without testing. Me, too. The first time a cold killed my sense of smell it really freaked me out. But I recovered. And that was more than a decade ago, so certainly not COVID. I just don’t think you can tell from symptoms. I mean, you can tell “am I sick enough to see a doctor?”, but not, “do I have COVID?” ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2020, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-idea-that-many-of-us-had-covid-19-in-late-jan-early-feb/852342/68 "2020-06-18T16:46:12Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > Maybe if you get extremely ill. Maybe from chest x-rays. But the cases mild enough to stay home just sound like every other viral bug out there. That doesn’t explain how it could have been circulating much earlier with _only_ milder cases occurring. If it had been circulating earlier, there would have been serious cases with hospitalizations and deaths too. And if nobody knew what it was, they would all have been dealt with without PPE, so it would have spread like wildfire among vulnerable people in hospitals and nursing homes. How is it possible that either (a) there were no serious cases; or (b) nobody noticed the serious cases with distinctive symptoms, even in restrospect? ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2020, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-idea-that-many-of-us-had-covid-19-in-late-jan-early-feb/852342/69 "2020-06-18T17:09:34Z")
Maybe you think I’m arguing that people HAD covid earlier? I’m not. I’m pointing out that there’s tons of ordinary stuff that’s been out there for years that has symptoms similar to a mild case of covid. And that’s what I expect most of those January illnesses were – any of the many bugs with similar symptoms. ---
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2020, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-idea-that-many-of-us-had-covid-19-in-late-jan-early-feb/852342/70 "2020-06-18T17:40:37Z")
COVID infection outcomes may be getting a bit better as we figure out how to manage symptoms. At the beginning, the US was using a ventilator protocol that seems to have been harmful, for example. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2020, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-idea-that-many-of-us-had-covid-19-in-late-jan-early-feb/852342/71 "2020-06-18T17:46:20Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > Maybe you think I’m arguing that people HAD covid earlier? I’m not. I’m pointing out that there’s tons of ordinary stuff that’s been out there for years that has symptoms similar to a mild case of covid. And that’s what I expect most of those January illnesses were – any of the many bugs with similar symptoms. Then your post #67 was not responsive to my comment that you quoted. I was pointing out that severe cases and deaths from COVID-19 _are_ distinctive. And we did not see them at that early stage. So it’s unlikely that mild symptoms (which have other possible causes) were attributable to COVID-19, since that would require that the virus was circulating but _only_ causing mild cases. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-idea-that-many-of-us-had-covid-19-in-late-jan-early-feb/852342.md?page=3)