# The illusion of the Biden "comeback"

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-illusion-of-the-biden-comeback/849238>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [March 11, 2020, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-illusion-of-the-biden-comeback/849238 "2020-03-11T01:07:01Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 3\
**Page:** 2

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**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\
**Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-illusion-of-the-biden-comeback/849238/21 "2020-03-11T23:56:55Z")

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> [@Monocracy](#):
>
> 538’s model was wrong. It didn’t account for candidates dropping out and their support going to other candidates, or it didn’t account for the fact that all that support would go to non-Bernie candidates. The first four contests were the Moderates/Establishment searching for their candidate. It ended up being Biden.

Of course the model accounts for that. And in the past, the first few contests are extremely predictive of the final outcome. You’re totally and obviously wrong.

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**Author:** ![puddleglum](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puddleglum/32/137_2.png) [@puddleglum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puddleglum)\
**Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-illusion-of-the-biden-comeback/849238/22 "2020-03-12T17:17:03Z")

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Iowa and New Hampshire are so different than the other contests. Most states only see a week or so of campaigning and have to make decisions without ever seeing the candidates.

Iowa has months and months of intense campaigning. For the most part they feel if they just pick the front runner why did they go through that? They like to be contrarian and humble the front runner.  
Then when New Hampshire votes they don’t want to merely ratify what Iowa does so they vote for someone else.

Then the real race starts and the front runner shows why they were the front runner and win easily. Name recognition is usually the decisive factor.

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**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\
**Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-illusion-of-the-biden-comeback/849238/23 "2020-03-12T17:35:51Z")

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It’s easier to regain the support you lost than gain support that you never had. People disposed to vote for Biden were disillusioned by his early performance and found other candidates, then flocked back to Joe when they saw him gain his footing. It was indeed a historic comeback but only because disproportionate weight was given to the first two contests with lily white populations and the third was a caucus where a minority of passionate supporters wins the day.

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