# The Iraqi "Timetable" Debacle, or, WTF? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 8, 2008, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-iraqi-timetable-debacle-or-wtf/455689 "2008-07-08T14:40:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2008, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-iraqi-timetable-debacle-or-wtf/455689/21 "2008-07-08T18:00:07Z")
Well, once again, the question comes down to “Just how stupid and/or crazy is this guy?” Somewhere in the range of _this_ stupid/crazy, but not so stupid/crazy as to start a conflict with Iran? I am so reassured. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2008, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-iraqi-timetable-debacle-or-wtf/455689/22 "2008-07-08T18:19:33Z")
And how might President McCain (…shudder…) respond? Over at Hullaballoo (VERY lefty site! Tighty Righty advised to divert ALL power to shields…) they did some research… > **[Why So Many? - Digby's Hullabaloo](https://digbysblog.blogspot.com/)** > > This could spell trouble for Republicans in Texas, Arizona, Florida and Virginia: A clear majority of President Donald Trump’s 2024 voters continue to approve of the job he is doing in office, but his rating has declined among this group and the... April 22, 2004 > [@](#): > > Yesterday I asked what the Maverick would say about Prime Minister Maliki requesting timelines for withdrawal. Democracy Arsenal looked back and found some of McCain’s earlier thoughts on the subject, in case anyone wants to remind him of it: > > Question: “What would or should we do if, in the post-June 30th period, a so-called sovereign Iraqi government asks us to leave, even if we are unhappy about the security situation there?” > > McCain’s Answer: “Well, if that scenario evolves than I think it’s obvious that we would have to leave because – if it was an elected government of Iraq, and we’ve been asked to leave other places in the world. If it were an extremist government then I think we would have other challenges, but I don’t see how we could stay when our whole emphasis and policy has been based on turning the Iraqi government over to the Iraqi people.” > > And no, asking him about this would not be insulting his service in Vietnam. (Actual cite is [http://www.cfr.org/publication/6973/](http://www.cfr.org/publication/6973/), lest I be accused of advancing a lefty site, perish the thought!) ---
**Author:** ![Sinaijon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/dc4da7/32.png) [@Sinaijon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sinaijon)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2008, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-iraqi-timetable-debacle-or-wtf/455689/23 "2008-07-08T18:24:17Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] What I don’t get is the Bushivik resistance. This is a golden opportunity to get out from under, to declare victory and have troops home in time for the **Gosh, Do We Ever Love The Leader** victory parades, which would go a long, long way to securing the elections. _Manna_ from Heaven. [/QUOTE] Maybe Bush really does care about the long term sovereignty of Iraq, not just about immediate short term political gain. The government there has come a long way, stability wise. But we don’t want to withdraw until we are 100% certain they have a handle on things, which might happen if a time table dictated things. Keep in mind, also, that a time table might keep us there **longer** than we need too. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2008, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-iraqi-timetable-debacle-or-wtf/455689/24 "2008-07-08T18:40:22Z")
[QUOTE=Sinaijon] Maybe Bush really does care about the long term sovereignty of Iraq, not just about immediate short term political gain. [/quote] If he refuses to leave when asked, he’s making it clear that Iraq’s sovereignty is just a lie. [QUOTE=Sinaijon] The government there has come a long way, stability wise. But we don’t want to withdraw until we are 100% certain they have a handle on things, which might happen if a time table dictated things. [/quote] And staying there despite their request to leave is certainly going to undercut what stability they have. Personally, I suspect that al Maliki is pinning his hopes of staying alive on being “the guy who got rid of the Americans”. As for Bush; I’m one of the people who thinks that he has zero intention of ever leaving ( and **less** than zero concern for the Iraqis ). This is and always was a war of conquest. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2008, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-iraqi-timetable-debacle-or-wtf/455689/25 "2008-07-08T18:51:18Z")
Independence movement gaining ground – not just Maliki anymore: [**Iraq insists on U.S. withdrawal timetable: official**](http://www.reuters.com/article/gc05/idUSL0353522920080708) > [@](#): > > BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq will not accept any security agreement with the United States unless it includes dates for the withdrawal of foreign forces, the government’s national security adviser said on Tuesday. > > \ > > On Monday, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki appeared to catch Washington off-guard by suggesting for the first time that a timetable be set for the departure of U.S. forces under the deal being negotiated, which he called a memorandum of understanding. > > National security adviser Mowaffaq al-Rubaie appeared to go one step further on Tuesday. > > > [@](#): > > > > **We can’t have a memorandum of understanding with foreign forces unless it has dates and clear horizons determining the departure of foreign forces. We’re unambiguously talking about their departure,** > > he said. > > Rubaie was speaking to reporters in Najaf after meeting Iraq’s top Shi’ite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. > > He said he spoke to Sistani about the U.S. talks, but did not say if the cleric had an opinion on the negotiations. The revered cleric is routinely briefed on key national issues. – more at source. Guess Bush was for democracy in Iraq before he was against it. ---
**Author:** ![mlees](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba8739/32.png) [@mlees](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mlees)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2008, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-iraqi-timetable-debacle-or-wtf/455689/26 "2008-07-08T19:11:01Z")
Well, if McCain wins the election, he just might accept the Iraqi request to withdraw, so that he can “declare victory”. I don’t think he’s in the pockets of Big Oil as much as Bush might be, nor do I think he is as fixated on the War on Terror as Bush is. (I think the 9/11 attacks was an epiphany moment for GW.) Obama has already said he’d like to leave, so I assume he would accept such a decision from the Iraqi government. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2008, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-iraqi-timetable-debacle-or-wtf/455689/27 "2008-07-08T19:21:14Z")
I seriously doubt that any timetable they come up with (assuming the do come up with one) will include a start date before Jan 20th, 2009. But good for them if they do ask us to get out. That will make things easier for either Obama or McCain. I wonder if they’ll want us to take all our toys with us, though. Somehow I doubt that. And that’s the leverage we’ll have, which is no small thing. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2008, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-iraqi-timetable-debacle-or-wtf/455689/28 "2008-07-08T19:26:51Z")
[QUOTE=RedFury] Time for regime change! Malaki off on extended “visit w/family” [/QUOTE] I’d laugh, but I’m old enough to remember the leader a month in Saigon. The only good news is that I doubt we have enough clout with the Iraqi army to pull it off. In other news, John McCain recommended that Maliki visit Baghdad, specifically markets, to understand the true situation on the ground. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2008, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-iraqi-timetable-debacle-or-wtf/455689/29 "2008-07-08T19:27:44Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] …And that’s the leverage we’ll have, which is no small thing… [/QUOTE] Well, maybe not so much. A lot of our armor has been grinding its gears with sand. The fancy electronics, they likely don’t understand and cannnot fix (“Achmed! What does the infidel machine mean ‘Press Any Key’?”). We’re gonna have to replace some/most/all of it anyway. Not that much leverage there. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2008, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-iraqi-timetable-debacle-or-wtf/455689/30 "2008-07-08T19:40:51Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] Well, maybe not so much. A lot of our armor has been grinding its gears with sand. The fancy electronics, they likely don’t understand and cannnot fix (“Achmed! What does the infidel machine mean ‘Press Any Key’?”). We’re gonna have to replace some/most/all of it anyway. Not that much leverage there. [/QUOTE] Well, they’re not going to ask the mechanics to leave! From what I’ve read, the ISF is starting to look pretty good, but they’ve got no logistical capabilities. They need our hi-tech weapons, armored vehicles, planes and helicopters. We have lost of leverage. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2008, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-iraqi-timetable-debacle-or-wtf/455689/31 "2008-07-08T19:42:48Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] …We have lost of leverage. [/QUOTE] 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2008, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-iraqi-timetable-debacle-or-wtf/455689/32 "2008-07-08T20:45:24Z")
I’m a Freudian Dyslexic. ---
**Author:** ![Dumbguy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/2bfe46/32.png) [@Dumbguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dumbguy)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2008, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-iraqi-timetable-debacle-or-wtf/455689/33 "2008-07-08T21:31:23Z")
‘We’ll leave when the Iraqis are ready to stand on their own’ was always a stall. There’s no way we’re going to let some podunk Muslim backwater tell us what to do even if it’s a podunk Muslim backwater of our own devising. [QUOTE=Sinaijon] But we don’t want to withdraw until we are 100% certain they have a handle on things… [/QUOTE] There’s no such thing. 80 years into the American democracy we still were flirting with self-destruction. Either we want Iraqi self-determination (and accept that there are risks involved no matter what we do) or we don’t. Or we don’t really give a damn either way and just use Iraq as some as an ever-spinning stone to grind our personal axes. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2008, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-iraqi-timetable-debacle-or-wtf/455689/34 "2008-07-08T21:47:06Z")
McCain’s [response](http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2008/07/08/just_politics/index.html) to Maliki? > [@](#): > > On MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” program (see video below), John McCain was asked about Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s call yesterday for a timetable for withdrawal of U.S. troops. > > McCain first flatly asserted that the news contradicted what he had heard in direct talks with Iraqi officials. And then, tellingly, he concluded, before going into his standard Iraq rap: “Prime Minister Maliki is a politician.” > > Interestingly enough, according to a wire story: “Iraq’s national security adviser said Tuesday his country will not accept any security deal with the United States unless it contains specific dates for the withdrawal of U.S.-led forces.” This “clarifying” statement was apparently made in response to suggestions from the White House that the “timetable” language in yesterday’s news reports from Iraq represented some sort of translation error. “Specific dates for withdrawal” is certainly more emphatic than “timetable.” > > We don’t know yet how the White House will respond to this new Iraqi rebuke. But John McCain’s breezy dismissal of Maliki’s new position as just politics helps explain why Iraqis are a mite sensitive about U.S. respect for that nation’s sovereignty. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2008, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-iraqi-timetable-debacle-or-wtf/455689/35 "2008-07-08T23:25:04Z")
I think you’re all making too much out of this. Iraq has an election coming up. Politicians are positioning themselves for that election. So far, the comments have been sort of off-the-record, coming from someone under Malaki so he can deny if necessary. They are also in the middle of a status of forces negotiation, and this could be part of a negotiating strategy. Also not clear is what is meant by ‘a timetable for U.S. withdrawal’, because the Iraqis have also said that they want a long-term commitment from the U.S. to help them secure their borders and fight al-Qaida, and that requires some forces. The public also supports this - while there is widespread support for an end to the Multinational Force occupation, there is also widespread support for a more limited U.S. military engagement with Iraq. All that said, if the level of rhetoric from Baghdad increases and it becomes clear that the official policy of Iraq is that they want a timetable for withdrawal, then the U.S. had better negotiate a timetable. Whether that means a timetable for withdrawal down to X thousand troops, or complete military disengagement remains to be seen. However, isn’t it nice that we’re actually at a point where there’s a stable government in Iraq that is strong enough to legitimately start talking about U.S. withdrawal? It would appear that Bush and McCain were right about the surge, and Obama was completely wrong. Wrong not just in oppposing it, but wrong in the stated reasons why he opposed it (he claimed that an increased military presence would feed the insurgency and make the violence worse). Another interesting fact: last week was the first week since the war started that there were no American soldiers killed in Iraq. And last month Afghanistan surpassed Iraq for the number of American casualties. It really has been a remarkable turnaround. It seems like only yesterday that Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi were saying that the war was already lost and there was nothing to do but cut and run and let a civil war run its course and let Iraqis fight al-Qaida by themselves. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2008, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-iraqi-timetable-debacle-or-wtf/455689/36 "2008-07-08T23:56:23Z")
[QUOTE=Sam Stone] I think you’re all making too much out of this. Iraq has an election coming up. Politicians are positioning themselves for that election. So far, the comments have been sort of off-the-record, coming from someone under Malaki so he can deny if necessary… [/quote] The first quote of my OP is from Maliki’s office. In the time intervening, that stance has been underlined, not retracted. > [@](#): > > …They are also in the middle of a status of forces negotiation, and this could be part of a negotiating strategy… No doubt. So? > [@](#): > > …Also not clear is what is meant by ‘a timetable for U.S. withdrawal’, because the Iraqis have also said that they want a long-term commitment from the U.S. to help them secure their borders and fight al-Qaida, and that requires some forces… They would be quite pleased to have financial support continue. Especially given the strict constraints so typical of our involvement, i.e., dropping buttloads of Benjamins from cargo planes. > [@](#): > > …The public also supports this - while there is widespread support for an end to the Multinational Force occupation, there is also widespread support for a more limited U.S. military engagement with Iraq… Cite? > [@](#): > > …All that said, if the level of rhetoric from Baghdad increases and it becomes clear that the official policy of Iraq is that they want a timetable for withdrawal, then the U.S. had better negotiate a timetable. Whether that means a timetable for withdrawal down to X thousand troops, or complete military disengagement remains to be seen… Negotiate? Its their country. Does one negotiate sovereignty? One is sovereign or one is not, there is no “soveriegnty lite”. > [@](#): > > …However, isn’t it nice that we’re actually at a point where there’s a stable government in Iraq that is strong enough to legitimately start talking about U.S. withdrawal?.. And in a mere matter of years, at such a minor cost. Peachy. The war may very well have been won, but who says it was won by us? > [@](#): > > …It would appear that Bush and McCain were right about the surge, and Obama was completely wrong. Wrong not just in oppposing it, but wrong in the stated reasons why he opposed it (he claimed that an increased military presence would feed the insurgency and make the violence worse)… It would appear that the logical fallacy known as _post hoc ergo propter hoc_ has yet to be eradicated. You may be right, but you cannot prove it. > [@](#): > > …Another interesting fact: last week was the first week since the war started that there were no American soldiers killed in Iraq. And last month Afghanistan surpassed Iraq for the number of American casualties… No comment is needed. No comment is possible. > [@](#): > > …It really has been a remarkable turnaround. It seems like only yesterday that Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi were saying that the war was already lost and there was nothing to do but cut and run and let a civil war run its course and let Iraqis fight al-Qaida by themselves. Simply because the war winds down does not mean that it has been “won”. What, exactly, do you think we have won? And, please, pretty please, stop…\*please \* stop!..pretending that AlQ is, or ever was, a significant factor in Iraq, or that the defeat of AlQ means shit to a tree. The Shia majority in Iraq despises AlQ in ways we cannot even fathom, if we leave, AlQ will be wiped out before the last American bootprint disappears in the pitiless sand. ---
**Author:** ![Frostillicus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Frostillicus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frostillicus)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2008, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-iraqi-timetable-debacle-or-wtf/455689/37 "2008-07-09T02:34:12Z")
Oh my God. Sam Stone is still using “cut and run” to describe the Democratic position. That is so 2006, dude. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2008, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-iraqi-timetable-debacle-or-wtf/455689/38 "2008-07-09T14:57:49Z")
I’m not a trained diplomat and stand to be corrected by some passing genius from Bush’s State Department or the Pentagon but it strikes this lay-person that when trying to negotiate a Status of Forces agreement in a country full of people not exactly renowned for their easy going, turn a blind eye attitude to family slights it might be a good idea, oh I don’t know, to maybe [not kill the PM’s freakin’ cousin!](http://www.mcclatchydc.com/iraq/story/42641.html) > [@](#): > > JANAJA, Iraq — Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki grew up in this village of lemon and date orchards about half an hour from the southern Shiite Muslim holy city of Karbala. He attended school in the area, according to his official biography, and members of his extended family keep elegant villas here. > > Maliki is Janaja’s most famous son, but he’s been conspicuously silent in the aftermath of an apparent covert coalition raid Friday morning – finally acknowledged Sunday by the U.S. military – that killed one of his relatives and terrified the villagers, many of whom share the premier’s tribal last name and belong to his Dawa Party. Other senior Iraqi officials have not kept mum: They’ve demanded an investigation and say the incident could affect negotiations for a long-term U.S.-Iraqi security pact. > > Janaja residents said the prime minister’s office privately has reassured them that Maliki is furious with his American allies but that he wanted to keep the ensuing diplomatic crisis out of the media spotlight. On Sunday, tribal leaders from throughout the south gathered under funeral tents to offer condolences and whisper about what went wrong. > > \ > > The U.S. military’s muted apology, three days after the raid, still leaves plenty of questions for the residents of Janaja. Two aspects of the covert operation infuriated Iraqi officials, from the Karbala council building all the way to the Baghdad government headquarters. > > One is that the raid occurred within Karbala province, one of nine provinces ostensibly under full Iraqi control. The U.S. military handed over Karbala security in October 2007; Iraqi authorities say the raid was conducted without their knowledge or coordination. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2008, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-iraqi-timetable-debacle-or-wtf/455689/39 "2008-07-09T15:18:07Z")
Going into Iraq was one of the biggest mistakes this country has ever made. But shit happens in war (which is why you don’t go to war unless you absolutely have to), and Bush is not directly responsible for every tactical mistake that occurs there. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2008, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-iraqi-timetable-debacle-or-wtf/455689/40 "2008-07-09T15:21:05Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] Going into Iraq was one of the biggest mistakes this country has ever made. But shit happens in war (which is why you don’t go to war unless you absolutely have to), and Bush is not responsible for every tactical mistake that occurs there. [/QUOTE] He is certainly responsible if his army is carrying out covert operations in areas handed back to the government without consultation or co-ordination. If he hasn’t made that damn, up-front clear then yes, it is his fault. And if he has made that clear and he was disobeyed then I expect to see a Texas-size barbacue of butts being served up. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-iraqi-timetable-debacle-or-wtf/455689.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-iraqi-timetable-debacle-or-wtf/455689.md?page=3)