# The Jeopardy thread \[was James Holzhauer\]\[contains spoilers\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Tags:** reality-or-game-show\ **Created:** [April 17, 2019, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-jeopardy-thread-was-james-holzhauer-contains-spoilers/832696 "2019-04-17T21:53:54Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 98
**Author:** ![MaxTheVool](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MaxTheVool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaxTheVool)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2021, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-jeopardy-thread-was-james-holzhauer-contains-spoilers/832696/1941 "2021-03-11T23:17:31Z")
> [@Just\_Asking\_Questions](#): > > There’s three valid strategies here for third place. Yours, play for the tie. Two is to bet nothing. The third is bet 4001. Like I said, let’s watch and see. Take note every time going into FJ, the scores are such that 2nd is within reach of 1st, but if 2nd and 1st both bet the “normal” amounts (ie, 1st bets enough to barely beat 2nd if 2nd doubles up, and 2nd bets enough to barely beat 1st if 1st gets it wrong) then 3rd can’t win… and see how often 1st and 2nd bet such that the door is open for 3rd. Then multiply that by the chance of both 1st and 2nd getting it wrong (which is conditionally tricky to calculate, because there’s a good chance that 2nd only bets like a maniac if they are VERY confident about the category), add in some additional conditions about whether you yourself had to get it right or not to get in reach and… we’ll see how often it actually comes up. ---
**Author:** ![Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eyebrows_0f_doom/32/3119_2.png) [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eyebrows_0f_Doom)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2021, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-jeopardy-thread-was-james-holzhauer-contains-spoilers/832696/1942 "2021-03-11T23:23:06Z")
> [@MaxTheVool](#): > > Next time there’s a third place player who has a trivial stack (ie, small enough that 2nd place can bet enough to get ahead of 1st place, and even if they are wrong and 3rd place doubles up, they would still be ahead of 3rd place) OK, that is _not_ the scenario you were asking about and not what I was responding to. You said if the scores were $10,000, $9,000 and $1,000 that the 3rd place player “has no chance of being in first.” That is not true. 1st place would normally bet enough to pass 2nd place doubling. So 1st place would be $8,001. 2nd place _should_ optimally bet enough that if they miss it, they have $2,001, but the 2nd place player often times doesn’t even consider 3rd and bets it all (or all but $1.) If 1st and 2nd miss it, and 3rd gets it correct, the scores would be: 1st: $10,000-$8001=$1999 2nd: $9,000-$9,999=$1 3rd: $1000+$1000=$2000 winner. I’ve seen that happen **many** many times. ---
**Author:** ![Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/son_of_a_rich/32/5439_2.png) [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Son_of_a_Rich)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2021, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-jeopardy-thread-was-james-holzhauer-contains-spoilers/832696/1943 "2021-03-11T23:25:18Z")
Did anybody else guess “Puck” for FJ? ---
**Author:** ![MaxTheVool](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MaxTheVool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaxTheVool)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2021, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-jeopardy-thread-was-james-holzhauer-contains-spoilers/832696/1944 "2021-03-11T23:27:49Z")
> [@Just\_Asking\_Questions](#): > > bolding mine > > There’s where your logic lets you down. You’re misreading “no matter what” as “if and only if”. He will win (assuming he bets at least 2.1K) if he gets it right and everyone else gets it wrong. He might also win in some other situations based on betting patterns, but, importantly, he has a very real and live chance of winning based solely on the knowledge, not the wagering. > [@Just\_Asking\_Questions](#): > > But if he bet it all on the DD near the end of the game, and ended up with 0 going into FJ, take the “effectively” away. That’s why you don’t do that. And it does end up to be more than once a year. Like I said, ping this thread next time it does. It’s not flat-out-impossible, which is why in the 5500 9000 10000 case I’m all for betting 4600 or so, not all 5500. But I think you’re vastly miscalculating the other half of the EV, which is the likelihood of winning if you’re in (or tied for) first vs not being in first. (Although frankly I wish I hadn’t brought up precise ties to begin with, because that’s not really the situation I’m generally irritated by, and they’re kind of in their own little universe.) (Ie, 10K 10K 3K is WAY WAY WAY more favorable for the 3K than 10K 9K 3K.) (But you’d still much rather be any of the 10Ks than anything else.) (And it’s also worth pointing out that while being the winner of the episode is valuable in and of itself, because you get to come back, you also should be calculating the amount of money you win. If you have a choice between being 50% likely to win with $25K or 51% likely to win with $500, you should probably take the first choice, even if it technically makes you less likely to “win the episode”). ---
**Author:** ![MaxTheVool](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MaxTheVool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaxTheVool)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2021, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-jeopardy-thread-was-james-holzhauer-contains-spoilers/832696/1945 "2021-03-11T23:28:51Z")
> [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](#): > > 1st: $10,000-$8001=$1999 > 2nd: $9,000-$9,999=$1 > 3rd: $1000+$1000=$2000 winner. > > I’ve seen that happen **many** many times. Well, then it will presumably happen again soon, and I will have egg on my face. ---
**Author:** ![K364](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k364/32/5_2.png) [@K364](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/K364)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2021, 4:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-jeopardy-thread-was-james-holzhauer-contains-spoilers/832696/1946 "2021-03-12T04:50:57Z")
> [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](#): > > 1st: $10,000-$8001=$1999 > 2nd: $9,000-$9,999=$1 > 3rd: $1000+$1000=$2000 winner. > > I’ve seen that happen **many** many times. Yes. But 2nd’s bet shouldn’t be everything. In fact it could be nothing. They just need 1st to be wrong so why bet it all? Usually you see 2nd bet around 3,000 in these situations. ---
**Author:** ![panache45](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/panache45/32/64_2.png) [@panache45](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/panache45)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2021, 5:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-jeopardy-thread-was-james-holzhauer-contains-spoilers/832696/1947 "2021-03-12T05:20:51Z")
> [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](#): > > Did anybody else guess “Puck” for FJ? As soon as I saw the category, I thought of “Le Figaro.” After I read the clue, I was sure. ---
**Author:** ![terentii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terentii/32/212_2.png) [@terentii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/terentii)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2021, 5:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-jeopardy-thread-was-james-holzhauer-contains-spoilers/832696/1948 "2021-03-12T05:52:46Z")
There’s an opera with a Puck? ---
**Author:** ![Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/son_of_a_rich/32/5439_2.png) [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Son_of_a_Rich)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2021, 5:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-jeopardy-thread-was-james-holzhauer-contains-spoilers/832696/1949 "2021-03-12T05:56:29Z")
Who knows? I just seemed to remember an old magazine being named Puck, which may or may not have existed. ---
**Author:** ![terentii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terentii/32/212_2.png) [@terentii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/terentii)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2021, 5:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-jeopardy-thread-was-james-holzhauer-contains-spoilers/832696/1950 "2021-03-12T05:57:52Z")
It took me a couple of seconds to run down my list of known foreign newspapers and do a cross-comparison with familiar comic opera figures, but I got it. ---
**Author:** ![terentii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terentii/32/212_2.png) [@terentii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/terentii)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2021, 6:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-jeopardy-thread-was-james-holzhauer-contains-spoilers/832696/1951 "2021-03-12T06:02:07Z")
You’re right about the magazine, but _ **A Midsummer Night’s Dream** _ is not an opera. > **[Puck (magazine)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puck_(magazine))** > > Pages for logged out editors learn more > > Puck was the first successful humor magazine in the United States of colorful cartoons, caricatures and political satire of the issues of the day. It was founded in 1876 as a German-language publication by Joseph Keppler, an Austrian-born cartoonist. Puck's first English-language edition was published in 1877, covering issues like New York City's Tammany Hall, presidential politics, and social issues of the late 19th century to the early 20th cent... > **[Puck (A Midsummer Night's Dream)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puck_(A_Midsummer_Night's_Dream))** > > Pages for logged out editors learn more > > > > Puck, or Robin Goodfellow, is a character in William Shakespeare's play, A Midsummer Night's Dream. > Based on the Puck of English mythology and the púca of Celtic mythology, Puck is a mischievous fairy, sprite, or jester. He is the first of the main fairy characters to appear, and he significantly influences events in the play. He delights in pranks such as replacing Bottom's head with that of an ass. ---
**Author:** ![panache45](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/panache45/32/64_2.png) [@panache45](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/panache45)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2021, 9:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-jeopardy-thread-was-james-holzhauer-contains-spoilers/832696/1952 "2021-03-12T09:16:21Z")
> [@terentii](#): > > _ **A Midsummer Night’s Dream** _ is not an opera. [Yes it is.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Midsummer_Night%27s_Dream_(opera)) Composed by Benjamin Britten, premiered in 1960. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2021, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-jeopardy-thread-was-james-holzhauer-contains-spoilers/832696/1953 "2021-03-12T15:02:32Z")
> [@panache45](#): > > As soon as I saw the category, I thought of “Le Figaro.” After I read the clue, I was sure I have never heard of that newspaper, so I would have been screwed. But, the category scared me, so I wouldn’t have bet much. ---
**Author:** ![terentii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terentii/32/212_2.png) [@terentii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/terentii)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2021, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-jeopardy-thread-was-james-holzhauer-contains-spoilers/832696/1954 "2021-03-12T18:12:29Z")
A big hit? ---
**Author:** ![Dogginit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dogginit/32/16920_2.png) [@Dogginit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dogginit)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2021, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-jeopardy-thread-was-james-holzhauer-contains-spoilers/832696/1955 "2021-03-12T21:36:49Z")
> [@terentii](#): > > She was far too perky and chatty for my tastes. That’s my only real beef with Katie. At least she’s not as wooden as Ken & the other guy were. ---
**Author:** ![Dogginit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dogginit/32/16920_2.png) [@Dogginit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dogginit)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2021, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-jeopardy-thread-was-james-holzhauer-contains-spoilers/832696/1956 "2021-03-12T21:38:38Z")
> [@Just\_Asking\_Questions](#): > > I’d still vote for Mike Richards as permanent host. But not Michael Richards. I think they need to give it to Mike Rowe of Dirty Jobs & Deadliest Catch fame. ---
**Author:** ![panache45](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/panache45/32/64_2.png) [@panache45](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/panache45)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2021, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-jeopardy-thread-was-james-holzhauer-contains-spoilers/832696/1957 "2021-03-12T22:53:06Z")
> [@terentii](#): > > A big hit? Fairly positive reviews. It’s been produced many times, with many recordings. Not to my taste though; I’m not a Britten fan. Oh, and Puck doesn’t sing; it’s a speaking role. ---
**Author:** ![Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eyebrows_0f_doom/32/3119_2.png) [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eyebrows_0f_Doom)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2021, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-jeopardy-thread-was-james-holzhauer-contains-spoilers/832696/1958 "2021-03-13T04:20:25Z")
Well would you look at that. The player in a way distant 3rd position going into FJ won tonight because the two with huge scores both got it wrong. (And somehow I actually guessed the correct answer!) ---
**Author:** ![MaxTheVool](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MaxTheVool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaxTheVool)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2021, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-jeopardy-thread-was-james-holzhauer-contains-spoilers/832696/1959 "2021-03-13T05:09:38Z")
Darned if you’re not right. I was so mad at that second place guy… not only did he throw away a ton of money, but he made me look dumb on the internet! ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2021, 7:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-jeopardy-thread-was-james-holzhauer-contains-spoilers/832696/1960 "2021-03-13T07:32:16Z")
> [@Dogginit](#): > > I think they need to give it to Mike Rowe of Dirty Jobs & Deadliest Catch fame. Now that would be an interesting choice of host. My only worry would be that he might ad-lib a little too much. Alex Trebek was great at it, knowing what was too little and what was too much, and he left some big shoes to fill in regards to finding that balance. Perhaps Mike could. I’m not minding Katie Couric. Like I said, Alex left some big shoes to fill, and it seems to me that Katie is aware of that. Hence, her little stumbles this past week. But with a little more practice, I think she could find it, and make the show her own, just as Alex did. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-jeopardy-thread-was-james-holzhauer-contains-spoilers/832696.md?page=97) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-jeopardy-thread-was-james-holzhauer-contains-spoilers/832696.md?page=99)