# The Kavanaugh Effect. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 8, 2018, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189 "2018-11-08T14:43:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/21 "2018-11-08T15:42:35Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > You mean that the Democratic party used be terrible on sexual assault? I’ve said this many, many times. They used to be as bad as Republicans. In the last year or two they’ve improved on the issue greatly, while the Republicans appear to have gotten even worse. > > In the present, one party actually treats sexual assault allegations with seriousness, and the other party does not. In the present, one party is trying to purge abusers and assaulters, while the other welcomes and even celebrates them. Noone is celebrating someone for being a sexual predator. The Republican party overlooks Trump’s behavior because they want to win elections and get conservatives on the bench so they can reverse Roe v Wade. They just picked up seats in the senate. RBG just broke her ribs last night, she is 85 years old and they could replace her with someone worse than Kavanaugh and still have enough votes to do it. [https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ginsburg-85-hospitalized-after-fracturing-3-ribs-in-fall/ar-BBPtRf3?OCID=ansmsnnews11](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ginsburg-85-hospitalized-after-fracturing-3-ribs-in-fall/ar-BBPtRf3?OCID=ansmsnnews11) > [@](#): > > I thought we were talking about national politics, and how they relate to the Kavanaugh allegations. Isn’t that what your OP was about? I was talking about the Kavanaugh effect. How much did it hurt Democrats to attack Kavanaugh like that over uncorroborated allegations from 30 years ago. If you want to bring Trump into the conversation then I would suggest that if we got rid of the Trump effect, Democrats might not have taken the house. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/22 "2018-11-08T15:44:45Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > I think here lies the difference of perception. It’s a good guess that most of the people in deep-red states such as Indiana, North Dakota and Missouri didn’t vote on the Kavanaugh issue because “I think Kavanaugh ought to be able to rape with impunity - let’s vote against anti-rape Democrats!” They were spurred to vote against the Democrats because they felt, “Kavanaugh is an innocent man being smeared by false accusations.” Obviously, but they were either sufficiently indoctrinated by a patriarchal culture that rgularly excuses or ignores sexual assault and rape, or were otherwise misled about the facts. > [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > How likely do you think it is that a progressive woman would NOT come out and vote? I don’t know. Neither do you. > [@](#): > > You can’t flip between sexual assault and sexual assault allegations as if there is no significant distinction. I think it hurts us to try and grind everything to a halt when an uncorroborated allegation of sexual assault from 30 years ago surfaces on the eve of an important vote. Agreed. Luckily, I’m not advocating this. A full investigation, including calling all witnesses to testify, would not have provided any significant delay. There was no legitimate reason to rush this process, only political concerns. > [@puddleglum](#): > > This is a strawman arguement. Ford’s accusations were taken seriously. She testified at the hearing and every possible corroborating witness was interviewed. There was just no evidence beyond her word that it ever happened The only such evidence could have come from a full investigation, including statements under oath from all witnesses and all accusers, and looking into all potential corroborating evidence (like the employment records of a witness Ford identified meeting later at their place of business). The Republicans (and Kavanaugh) elected not to pursue such an investigation, but rather a token sham that actively avoided trying to gather this evidence. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/23 "2018-11-08T15:47:14Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > Noone is celebrating someone for being a sexual predator. The Republican party overlooks Trump’s behavior because they want to win elections and get conservatives on the bench so they can reverse Roe v Wade. They just picked up seats in the senate. RBG just broke her ribs last night, she is 85 years old and they could replace her with someone worse than Kavanaugh and still have enough votes to do it. > > [MSN](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ginsburg-85-hospitalized-after-fracturing-3-ribs-in-fall/ar-BBPtRf3?OCID=ansmsnnews11) So what are you advocating? That Democrats should stop advocating that allegations should be treated seriously and fully investigated? If so, I disagree. Some things are more important than short term politics. Or even SCOTUS seats. Treating sexual assault allegations with seriousness is one of those things. > [@](#): > > I was talking about the Kavanaugh effect. How much did it hurt Democrats to attack Kavanaugh like that over uncorroborated allegations from 30 years ago. > > If you want to bring Trump into the conversation then I would suggest that if we got rid of the Trump effect, Democrats might not have taken the house. I think treating sexual assault allegations with seriousness is the right move in the long run, politically. Maybe there are short term political consequences. But I think there are lots of voters like me who might totally withdraw from politics if they thought no party was willing to even attempt to do the right thing on such a massively important issue. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/24 "2018-11-08T15:47:21Z")
> [@Chingon](#): > > I doubt anyone changed their mind to vote over this. > **[Democratic Senators lost in battleground states after voting against Kavanaugh](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/07/kavanaugh-effect-midterm-elections/1915457002/)** > > Every incumbent Democratic candidate who voted against the Supreme Court Justice who ran tight races in red states ended up losing Tuesday. ---
**Author:** ![Chingon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chingon/32/17645_2.png) [@Chingon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chingon)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/25 "2018-11-08T15:51:56Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > [Election results: Did Brett Kavanaugh cost Democrats Senate seats?](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/07/kavanaugh-effect-midterm-elections/1915457002/) Right, the people voting against them did so out of disgust for smear tactics. They will never stand for that. Post hoc, ergo propter hoc. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/26 "2018-11-08T15:52:49Z")
By the way, exit polling with regard to Kavanaugh does not support the conclusion that the Democrats hurt themselves with how they handled the accusations against him. > **[Exit Polls Show the GOP May Be Digging Itself Into an Ideological Hole](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/11/trump-house-midterms-exit-poll-takeaways.html)** > > Both parties say the election was a win. These exit polls show otherwise. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/27 "2018-11-08T15:53:15Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > So what are you advocating? That Democrats should stop advocating that allegations should be treated seriously and fully investigated? > > If so, I disagree. Some things are more important than short term politics. Even SCOTUS seats. Treating sexual assault allegations with seriousness is one of those things. And as you pointed out this is a position that Democrats seem to take when its politically convenient and ignore when it is not convenient. > [@](#): > > I think treating sexual assault allegations with seriousness is the right move in the long run, politically. Maybe there are short term political consequences. But I think there are lots of voters like me who might totally withdraw from politics if they thought no party was willing to even attempt to do the right thing on such a massively important issue. Sexual assault allegation can still be taken seriously after Kavanaugh is put on the bench. Why aren’t they still pushing the sexual assault allegations? Do they no longer care about the matter now that the confirmation hearings are over? ---
**Author:** ![Chingon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chingon/32/17645_2.png) [@Chingon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chingon)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/28 "2018-11-08T15:57:53Z")
Not using ‘we’ anymore? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/29 "2018-11-08T15:58:23Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > And as you pointed out this is a position that Democrats seem to take when its politically convenient and ignore when it is not convenient. ??? I didn’t say this. They used to be terrible on this issue. They’ve improved greatly in the last year or two due to embracing the #MeToo movement. > [@](#): > > Sexual assault allegation can still be taken seriously after Kavanaugh is put on the bench. Why aren’t they still pushing the sexual assault allegations? Do they no longer care about the matter now that the confirmation hearings are over? They are, and I fully expect the House judiciary committee to investigate the allegations against Kavanaugh next year. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/30 "2018-11-08T15:59:29Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > He did not. He had the opportunity to say “I want this fully investigated by the FBI before there is any vote”, but he chose another route. He refused to call for a full FBI investigation, even when directly asked. At best, he advocated for the bullshit token fake “investigation” that Senate Republican leaders did, but nothing more. :smack: You [mean besides saying](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/26/us/politics/read-brett-kavanaughs-complete-opening-statement.html) > [@Kavanaugh](#): > > When this allegation first arose, I welcomed any kind of investigation. Senate, F.B.I. or otherwise. The committee now has conducted a thorough investigation, and I’ve cooperated fully. > > I know that any kind of investigation, Senate, F.B.I., Montgomery County police, whatever will clear me. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/31 "2018-11-08T15:59:51Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > By the way, exit polling with regard to Kavanaugh does not support the conclusion that the Democrats hurt themselves with how they handled the accusations against him. > > [Midterm elections 2018 takeaways: Trump cost the GOP the House.](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/11/trump-house-midterms-exit-poll-takeaways.html) That’s the way that Slate is reading the polls but the poll doesn’t ask whether it motivated anyone who might have stayed at home to vote. That is the kavanaugh effect. it didn’t change anyone’s vote, it got them to the polls. The enthusiasm gap was in favor of the Democrats. Kavanaugh closed that gap. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/32 "2018-11-08T16:01:37Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > :smack: > You [mean besides saying](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/26/us/politics/read-brett-kavanaughs-complete-opening-statement.html) There was no “thorough investigation” – that’s a joke. He was asked directly, multiple times, if he would speak out for a full FBI investigation that would question every witness, and he refused to answer the question. That was a big moment in the questioning – his refusal to answer this question – did you miss it? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/33 "2018-11-08T16:02:47Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > That’s the way that Slate is reading the polls but the poll doesn’t ask whether it motivated anyone who might have stayed at home to vote. That is the kavanaugh effect. it didn’t change anyone’s vote, it got them to the polls. The enthusiasm gap was in favor of the Democrats. Kavanaugh closed that gap. I’m unconvinced of this. And your certainty doesn’t help convince me. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/34 "2018-11-08T16:03:47Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > Sexual assault allegation can still be taken seriously after Kavanaugh is put on the bench. Why aren’t they still pushing the sexual assault allegations? Do they no longer care about the matter now that the confirmation hearings are over? > [@iiandyiiii](#): > > They are, and I fully expect the House judiciary committee to investigate the allegations against Kavanaugh next year. You’re kidding. You really think the Democrats want to or even should go back there? They’re going to “investigate” an alleged crime from 35 years ago with no corroborating witnesses? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/35 "2018-11-08T16:04:13Z")
Who said anything about uncorroborated allegations? We’re talking about the Ford accusations against Kavanaugh, which were strongly corroborated by the evidence of his calendars, his journals, his own testimony, and the testimony of others as to his character (including other similar incidents) and the character of Ford. ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/36 "2018-11-08T16:04:27Z")
Yes, it’s too bad that the Kavanaugh Effect seems to be focused entirely on sexual assault allegations whose substantiation is, to be fair, tissue-paper thin, and not on the _heavily documented_ instances of his political hackery. Vince Foster Murder Conspiracy, anybody? That such a dissembling crapweasel was ever put on the Supreme Court bench is a stain on this country that is going to take a long time to fade, if ever. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/37 "2018-11-08T16:25:57Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Who said anything about uncorroborated allegations? We’re talking about the Ford accusations against Kavanaugh, which were strongly corroborated by the evidence of his calendars, his journals, his own testimony, and the testimony of others as to his character (including other similar incidents) and the character of Ford. Please. I don’t think there is any value in having that debate again, so let’s just focus on whether or not it would be smart for the Democrats to re-open the investigation into Ford’s allegations: You think they should? You think they will? ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/38 "2018-11-08T16:28:37Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Who said anything about uncorroborated allegations? We’re talking about the Ford accusations against Kavanaugh, which were strongly corroborated by the evidence of his calendars, his journals, his own testimony, and the testimony of others as to his character (including other similar incidents) and the character of Ford. If by the “calendars” you mean the July 1st 1982, date that [has been ruled out by Ford herself.](https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/04/kavanaugh-confirmation-calendar-ford-870982). There is zero corroboration evidence for any other of her claims. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/39 "2018-11-08T16:35:01Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Please. I don’t think there is any value in having that debate again, so let’s just focus on whether or not it would be smart for the Democrats to re-open the investigation into Ford’s allegations: You think they should? You think they will? Not **Chronos** , but unless they know or have a good idea that they’ll find some very damning things, I think not. Plus, they also put two of his accusers in the firing line, Swetnick, who already had a reference, and Ford, who the ‘Pubs seem ready to go after for perjury, if the Senate report is any indication. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/40 "2018-11-08T16:35:07Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > If by the “calendars” you mean the July 1st 1982, date that [has been ruled out by Ford herself.](https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/04/kavanaugh-confirmation-calendar-ford-870982). > > There is zero corroboration evidence for any other of her claims. What about the journals? Have you seen what’s in the journals? Not many people have! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189.md?page=3)