# The Kavanaugh Effect. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 8, 2018, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189 "2018-11-08T14:43:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/101 "2018-11-09T16:01:10Z")
The real Kavanaugh effect… [The 2018 Gender Gap Was Huge](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-2018-gender-gap-was-huge/) > [@](#): > > Today, let’s zoom in on how white women voted. First of all, more white women voted for Democrats in 2018 than in 2016 — this year, they split their vote evenly between Democrats and Republicans (49 to 49 percent), while in 2016 they voted for Republicans by 12 points. That’s a notable movement toward Democrats since 2016, when 43 percent of white women voted for Democrats, and 2014, when 42 percent did. This Democratic house was paid for in part by the party of rape. Thanks _Justice_ Kavanaugh. ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/102 "2018-11-09T17:02:38Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > To keep it simple and focus on just one, of many, details that have been corroborated, she wrote, “Both were one to two years older than me and students at a local private school.” That has been independently verified from other sources. We have a word for when things have been independently verified from other sources. Corroborated. What independent verification from other sources do we have that she was almost raped by someone “one to two years older than me and student[s] at a private school?” ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/103 "2018-11-09T17:10:11Z")
> [@DSYoungEsq](#): > > What independent verification from other sources do we have that she was almost raped by someone “one to two years older than me and student[s] at a private school?” You are dodging my question. This is one of the claims that Ford made in her letter to Feinstein… > [@](#): > > Both were one to two years older than me and students at a local private school. Has **this** claim been corroborated or does it remain uncorroborated? We can talk about other claims latter. I am asking about **this** claim. ---
**Author:** ![drad\_dog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@drad\_dog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drad_dog)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/104 "2018-11-09T17:17:38Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > Could we have won the Senate without the Kavanaugh effect? > > [https://www.usatoday.com/amp/1739876002](https://www.usatoday.com/amp/1739876002) I don’t understand the use of “we” here. You hate Hillary Clinton very deeply. You spend time and aggro pursuing this idea, which is identical to Russian anti democratic propaganda, and the subsequent republican ethical and intellectual collapse. “We” would indicate you are just another democrat. Waht? You are not. You have bought facebook Hillary hate and now are playing as a democrat. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/105 "2018-11-09T17:21:17Z")
For reference this is the post in this thread that I am arguing against. > [@AK84](#): > > There is zero corroboration evidence for any other of her claims. This is pretty obviously false. My position is not that there is evidence corroborating attempted rape. It is that there is evidence corroborating several of her claims. I am focusing on a specific claim to make this point because it is literally the first thing that every news news organization and interested party sought to corroborate when Dr. Ford’s name became public. There is a mountain of evidence corroborating **this** claim. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/106 "2018-11-09T18:16:53Z")
It’s like appearing against a very self-confident pro se litigant. Which of course means, wrong as fuck, but adamant. For fuck’s sake, Dr Ford’s claims were not that _Kavanaugh and Judge went to school around the same time as I did_. That is not illegal. What her claim was, was that she was the victim of an attempted rape at a certain time and place by Kavanaugh with Judge present. None of that had any corroborating evidence. Back when I debated in school, we had one particular debate where the topic was _This House would abolish the UN_ and our opponents insisted that it should be defeated since This House “could not abolish the UN”:rolleyes: They thought they were right clever. Reminds me of this. At least those chicks were hot. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/107 "2018-11-09T18:32:02Z")
Back when Ken Starr was running wild, Kavanaugh was a minion, yes? What opinion did he offer when Kenny first suggested threatening Ms Lewinski’s Mom? Did he forcefully object? If he did, good for him, glad to hear, a pity no one listened. But I doubt it. His career and his reputation are built on being a loyal _apparatchik_. TG, IANAL, but I see little to make me believe he is widely admired as a legal scholar of the first water. And, as his adolescent spat with Ms Klobuchar demonstrates, he is no gentleman. Never mind who he was, I see who he is. He is foisted upon us because of his ideological loyalty. He has not the temperment of a high judge nor the brilliance of a scholar. I say its spinach, and I say to Hell with it. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/108 "2018-11-09T19:04:13Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > For fuck’s sake, Dr Ford’s claims were not that _Kavanaugh and Judge went to school around the same time as I did_. She absolutely did claim that. I quoted her claiming it numerous times. Furthermore, this claim has been corroborated. This is important because if this claim was unable to be corroborated we would have never heard of Dr. Ford. The fact that several of her claims have been corroborated is the only reason we know who Dr. Ford is. If there was, “zero corroboration evidence for any other of her claims,” her letter would have been immediately shitcanned. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2018, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/109 "2018-11-10T02:56:09Z")
There is no corroboration of _any_ of the details of her alleged attempted rapist(s), not their age, not their names, nothing. What we do have, though, is strong evidence that it wasn’t Kavanaugh and/or Judge. Hopefully, should she report it to the police, there will be a full investigation into who did do it, and perhaps that will show how she mistook the attacker(s) for people she was never at a party with. To bring it back to your original claim, there is absolutely zero corroborating evidence that the attackers were one to two years older than her, as there is zero evidence of _anything at all about them_ beyond Ford’s statement. As to whether this affected the vote, one would expect so, as the Democrats kept supporting a demonstrably false claim against Kavanaugh, and that’s a good reason to vote against them. At this precise time, there’s more good reasons to vote _for_ them, but not everyone agrees with that, and believing false accusations won’t be a winning strategy going forward. But hey, keep investigating Kavanaugh - it was so successful and popular when the Republicans did it to Hilary Clinton, despite her having done a lot more wrong… ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2018, 4:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/110 "2018-11-10T04:42:26Z")
Bonkers ---
**Author:** ![drad\_dog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@drad\_dog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drad_dog)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2018, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/111 "2018-11-10T17:38:08Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > There is no corroboration of _any_ of the details of her alleged attempted rapist(s), not their age, not their names, nothing. **What we do have, though, is strong evidence that it wasn’t Kavanaugh and/or Judge.** Hopefully, should she report it to the police, there will be a full investigation into who did do it, and perhaps that will show how she mistook the attacker(s) for people she was never at a party with. > > To bring it back to your original claim, there is absolutely zero corroborating evidence that the attackers were one to two years older than her, as there is zero evidence of _anything at all about them_ beyond Ford’s statement. > > As to whether this affected the vote, one would expect so, as the Democrats kept supporting a demonstrably false claim against Kavanaugh, and that’s a good reason to vote against them. At this precise time, there’s more good reasons to vote _for_ them, but not everyone agrees with that, and believing false accusations won’t be a winning strategy going forward. But hey, keep investigating Kavanaugh - it was so successful and popular when the Republicans did it to Hilary Clinton, despite her having done a lot more wrong… Cite? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2018, 10:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/112 "2018-11-11T10:48:02Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > There is no corroboration of _any_ of the details of her alleged attempted rapist(s), not their age, not their names, nothing. An actual investigation might have turned that up, don’tcha think? > [@Steophan](#): > > the Democrats kept supporting a demonstrably false claim against Kavanaugh When and how was that demonstrated? ---
**Author:** ![tim314](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim314/32/3468_2.png) [@tim314](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tim314)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2018, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/113 "2018-11-11T22:16:02Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Here is the hint again: IT WAS 35 FUCKING YEARS AGO!!! You really don’t think that is at least one good argument for letting this thing go? That it was so long ago that it will be near impossible to get to the bottom of it, and that maybe JUST MAYBE the House has better things to do? Are you arguing just that it’s impossible to prove what happened 35 years ago, or are you also saying that the act itself matters less because of the time gap? Personally, I think that attempted rape should disqualify someone from being on the Supreme Court no matter how long ago it happened. I wouldn’t want someone on the Court if I even thought there was a 50-50 chance they once tried to rape someone. The idea that we need proof beyond a reasonable doubt to disqualify someone in a job interview is ludicrous. I wouldn’t hire a babysitter if I thought “Well, 50% chance they’re a pedophile, but I don’t have iron clad proof.” And while it may be impossible to _prove_ what happened beyond a reasonable doubt after 35 years, it certainly isn’t impossible to weigh the evidence and say “the allegation is credible _enough_ that we ought to find someone else to be the next Supreme Court Justice.” ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2018, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/114 "2018-11-11T22:53:32Z")
AIUI, there were three reasons Republicans couldn’t or wouldn’t switch Kavanaugh out for another nominee. 1. Kavanaugh had a very proven track record of voting in Republican interests - the GOP has always been afraid of another Souter, and 2. Republicans felt that withdrawing Kavanaugh because of the sexual-assault allegations would set a precedent, kind of like giving in to hostage-taker demands. They feared that it would invite future such accusations in a similar situation down the road. 3. It would show “weakness”, and Republicans abhor that. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2018, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/115 "2018-11-29T17:04:38Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > No idea what you’re talking about here. Doesn’t seem to address my actual words. Just your own notions of my evil progressivism. You said that they should have handled it before the confirmation because it might derail the confirmation. That is clearly the actual objective of pushing the Ford allegations. And I am accusing the ultra progressives of driving the Democratic party off the edge of a cliff. We have an opportunity to enlarge the tent and bring in more moderates who are repulsed by Trump and you think we should take the opportunity to push for more extreme stuff because the left leaning moderates now have to choose between stupid progressive stuff or evil conservative stuff. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2018, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/116 "2018-11-29T17:16:31Z")
[Is this the Kavanaugh Effect that the OP mentioned?](https://www.vox.com/2018/11/28/18116569/martha-mcsally-exit-memo-trump) > [@](#): > > The memo, which was published by the Washington Post, explains McSally’s narrow loss to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in part by citing internal polling indicating that Trump is not popular among Republicans — particularly women — in a state that will be crucial to his 2020 hopes. > > “A significant segment of the AZ GOP was hostile to the President,” it says. “In internal polling during the primary, President Trump never broke 80% favorability among Republican voters. A certain segment of AZ Republicans was outright hostile to President Trump, and was against the Kavanaugh appointment. This segment of moderate Republicans, especially woman [sic], proved very difficult to bring home to a Republican candidate that supported President Trump and the confirmation of Justice Kavanaugh.” ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2018, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/117 "2018-11-29T17:17:12Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > She can’t, as the statute of limitations has passed. As far as the need for the house to be the investigate body, do they not have investigations? Where do impeachment proceeding start? Usually with misconduct while the judge is sitting on the bench. Frequently for drunkenness on the bench so there is still hope of an impeachment, I guess. > [@](#): > > I would agree that there are those who would claim it to be only an act of vengeance, but that doesn’t mean that it actually is, unless you are claiming that any investigation into anything is an act of vengeance. > > The house will have its hands full with what, exactly? > That was to your point that an investigation wouldn’t be able to turn up anything from that long ago, not as to what agency is doing the investigation. > > Yes, and investigating him for perjury about a few months ago when he lied about things that happened decades ago is what we are looking to be doing. > > And, we should look into the perjury of his involvement with stolen democratic emails and a few other shenanigans that came up along the way, or are you opposed to those too? Why not just impeach him for a blue dress? It’ll work wonders considering the white house and senate are still Republican ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2018, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/118 "2018-11-29T17:31:01Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > The real Kavanaugh effect… > > [The 2018 Gender Gap Was Huge](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-2018-gender-gap-was-huge/) > > This Democratic house was paid for in part by the party of rape. Thanks _Justice_ Kavanaugh. From your cite: “we find a record-breaking 23-point difference, which is the highest it’s been since at least 1992. Granted, that might not seem like a huge jump from 2016, when the gender gap was 22 points, but part of the reason the gap isn’t larger this year is that more men moved to the left in 2018.” The gender gap was about the same as it was last year. Everyone moved to the left. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2018, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/119 "2018-11-29T18:35:29Z")
> [@drad\_dog](#): > > I don’t understand the use of “we” here. You hate Hillary Clinton very deeply. You spend time and aggro pursuing this idea, which is identical to Russian anti democratic propaganda, and the subsequent republican ethical and intellectual collapse. “We” would indicate you are just another democrat. Waht? You are not. You have bought facebook Hillary hate and now are playing as a democrat. I voted for Hillary Clinton. Twice. Once in the primary and once in the general. I am not a fan but I voted for her nonetheless. I think you are conflating Democrat for “Loves Hillary and agrees with me on everything” I’ve voted for Democrats since 2000. I haven’t voted for a Republican at any level of government since the invasion of Iraq. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2018, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189/120 "2018-11-29T18:39:53Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > She absolutely did claim that. I quoted her claiming it numerous times. > > Furthermore, this claim has been corroborated. This is important because if this claim was unable to be corroborated we would have never heard of Dr. Ford. > > The fact that several of her claims have been corroborated is the only reason we know who Dr. Ford is. If there was, “zero corroboration evidence for any other of her claims,” her letter would have been immediately shitcanned. That’s not corroboration. That’s not even corroboration that the sexual assault occurred never mind that Kavanaugh was the assaulter. She might as well have said the attempted rapist was white and it would be as meaningful. It would provide ZERO probative value. None of her claims were corroborated. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-kavanaugh-effect/824189.md?page=7)