The L-curve: distribution of income

kabbes:

Yeah, wonderful, you kicked the shit out of my ad hoc calculation, while completing ignoring the whole freakin’ point, which was that even in limited circumstances it is still possible to accumulate significant assets.

As I said, I never let them grow their income past the 20k, and I didn’t retire them at 50, I just stopped the analysis. I left the analysis unbalanced on both sides. Their earnings power was underrepresented, and the growth was a little better than what they’d really get. It balanced out.

All you’ve done is correct one side, thrown it out of balance and it still shows them accumulating significant assets.

I’d say I’m vindicated.

If you want to do it right, you start the analysis assuming they have some kind of assets like a car or savings or a couple of grand from wedding gifts or mowing lawns, you have them work part time at minimum wage for a few years, before acquiring benefits, like disability, and life insurance. Almost surely they get to participate in a Sep or 401k with some kind of matching contribution. One stops working to raise the kids, while the other proceeds over the next 30 to 40 years to get an increasing salary as they move up in the company. It’s a rare person that sweeps floors for thirty years, and even if our hypothetical working class drudge is untalented it’s likely that he gets to be shift supervisor or something after that period of time. By the time he’s 50 he’s probably pulling down 45-60k a year.

Of course, I didn’t account for that because my goal was to make a simplistic model to show how wealth could be accumulated.

If you decide to unbalance that model and make it more realistic in one facet, you have to do it in all facets. As an actuary surely you’re familiar with the basic algebraic concept that if you alter one side of the equation you have to alter the other to maintain it’s validity. Similarly you must also realize the value of simplistic models to show basic truisms.

If you want to run a full scale model as realistically as you can, fine, we can do that.

That’s not what I was trying to do, and you really don’t get any kudos for showing that my little hypothetical doesn’t do something I never intended it to.

scylla
I am not an expert in real estate, and I have no desire to become one. I found your 8% number to be counterintuitive and asked you where it came from. You have assured me that you didn’t pull it out of your ass, but you haven’t shown me where you did pull it from. If you want to drop the matter, that’s fine with me, we can just assume that your hypothetical couple rented for their 32 years of subsistence living.

I don’t disagree with you that low-income people can generate significant wealth over time if they are frugal, disciplined, and fortunate enough to avoid financial setbacks. I do question the amount of wealth which your model.

Really, though, I just cannot see how the point sheds particular illumination upon income disparity. The generation of wealth you mention is possible, but not guaranteed. As a hypothetical example it seems somewhat more relevant than pointing out that poor people can win the lottery and become instant millionaires but less relevant than looking at the economomic mobility of actual populations. Admitedly, finding numbers on the economic mobility of actual populations is proving a bit problematic.

And that also is assuming that a family isn’t going to be hit by some disaster that would wipe out the retirement fund.

Say you have something set aside for retirement-and then you get laid off, or your house burns down, kid gets sick and needs chemo, etc.

And those extra savings are all you have that you can spare.

No. I didn’t model for extraordinary setbacks. I also didn’t model for extraordinary windfalls.

I thought that was the proper way to do it for a generic hypothetical.

I wasn’t trying to write a soap opera, after all.

Spiritus:

It does say quite a bit about income disparity, as the assets that are saved not spent have the ability to grow and/or throw off additional income. Assets that are spent or leveraged suck income.

scylla
Seriously, I don’t get it. No rhetorical trick, here, I just don’t see the point you are trying to make abouit income disparity. That it only exists because poor people don’t live frugally and invest wisely? That with some luck and fiscal discipline it is sometimes/often/always possible to generate wealth over a lifetime, even from humble beginnings? Please, make it simple for me:

This generic example of fiscal bootstrapping demonstrates _______________ about income disparity in America.

nothing. forget it.

The point is that almost anyone come move up in the income ranks with a little forethought or planning by rational choice. If everyone were locked into place like a caste system then we might have reason to be alarmed. The fact almost anyone can choose the socioeconomic level that they end up in with a little planning renders this whole argument ridiculous and mute. We should ensure that the mechanism is there for people to be upwardly mobile, whether they take advantage of it or not is their own concern.

Well, I’m pretty sure that wasn’t scylla’s point, since it isn’t a justified conclusion from his hypothetical. Even setting aside the quibble swith the margins of scylla’s hypothetical, leaping from a generic model to the conclusion “almost everyone can choose the socioeconomic level they end up in” is a leap of faith, not logic. People do get sick, have car accidents, get robbed, etc. Condemning low income people en masse as having failed to exercise forethought and rational choice is both callous and unjustified.

Spiritus:

I think it tells us that propensities for upward and dwonward mobility are significantly affected by frugality.

I personally beleive that frugality is more of a relative force in socioeconomic mobility than raw earning power, but my hypothetical doesn’t show this.

Now go to the other thread and help me out.

Well, I agree that investments are a hugen factor in the generation of wealth, but I wouldn’t have any idea how to begin comparing “frugality” to “earning power”. It seems a pretty apples::frisbees kind of thing. Certainly if the only measure you decide is important is accumulation of capital by age X, then doubling what you save from X-30 will have a larger effect than doubling income without saving anything.

I think it’s also problematical to talk about “socioeconomic mobility” when the only factor being affected is the accumulation of wealth. In your hypothetical, for example, the couple is absolutely static in terms of social environment, standard of living, etc. Their accumulate wealth increases significantly, but their socioeconomic environment remains unchanged. Hell, since their wealth is entirely allocated to volotile markets even the “economic cushion factor” is somewhat tenuous for most of those 32 years.

Okay–I’m done. I’ll look for your other thread.

i didn’t read all of the posts but i searched on the words, assets, liabilities and net. assets showed up a few times, the others did not.

basic accounting equation:

assets - liabilities = net worth

the way you keep score is net worth. some assets depreciate. planned obsolescence is planned depreciation. i estimate american consumers have trashed around 300,000,000 cars by now. what happened to all that depreciation. i’ve never owned a new car and never made a car payment. i buy used and pay cash and don’t buy collision insurance. i’m a landlord and my tenants pay my mortgage. see:

 www.twaz.com/business

Dal Timgar

I think this is a very important point. As Sam Stone notes, most of us have moved around a fair bit in the quintiles but a lot of that is sort of “faux mobility”. I.e., the fact that I was earning almost nothing in college and not that much more as a grad student does not really mean that I was ever “poor” in any reasonable sense of the word; because my parents were fairly well-off, I had access to their support and to the benefits of a good education, etc. [For my grandparents who truly came to this country and Canada with almost nothing and ended up with reasonable assets and whose children did quite to very well financially, we can talk about real upward mobility…so I am not saying it hasn’t happened but just that it is subtle to pull out of the statistics on moving around the quintiles.]

Another thing that income mobility doesn’t address is the “winner-take-all” issue that another poster (kabbes?) referred to in the early part of the thread. I.e., even if people can, through hard work and luck, move up and down, one can still justify society adopting some sort of measures to “cushion the fall” of those who do drop through the cracks even if it is due in large part to factors that one can blame on them. Likewise, one can argue that those who shoot to the top through hard work and good fortune still owe some of that back to society both because it is almost axiomatic that those who do so have done so partly by working the “rules of the game” the most to their benefit and also because our economic society is fundamentally a collective enterprise and to the extent that we all must contribute to it, it hurts less for Bill Gates to give up a certain percentage of his income than it does for several on the low end of the totem pole to. Of course, this must be counterbalanced against incentives and rewards and where this balance should be made is a lot of what we are really disagreeing about.

A related point on this that I just thought of but was inherent in this use of the term “winner take all” of a previous poster is that it seems possible, in fact likely, to me that there are lots of instabilities in the accumulation of assets. So, for example, if Bill Gates accumulates 10,000,000 times as much money as someone who is poor, it does not necessarily mean his “worth” to society is 10 million times more. Rather, the fact that wealth begets wealth and poverty begets poverty means that differences in “worth” (whatever that means) get translated into very exagerated differences in wealth.

In many ways, it could be argued that we’re living in a new Victorian age. They had similar enormous income disparities; the rich became grossly, obscenely rich and there were fewer and fewer of them; while the poor were desperately, hopelessly poor and there were more and more. The comfortable middle-class shriveled. Think Dickens. Think of the O.Henry stories of the shop-girls struggling to live on two dollars a week while the department store owners wallowed in wealth. It was an age of the same type of extremes–the ostentatious displays of wealth in the ornate mansions, while outside the expensive gates, the poor shivered and starved in the dirty streets. There are so many similarities in tone; the moralizing editorials about the problem of the poor and dramatic increases in crime; the fascination with the rich (who were the media attraction equivalent to today’s movie and music stars); the same kind of over-the-top, egregious, and ultimately tasteless displays of wealth.

I would argue that this excessive disparity between income is unhealthy for a society. A society with a large middle class is simply a nicer, more comfortable, more pleasant and enjoyable society to live in. The extreme example of income disparity is a feudal society, where you have the king and a few nobles ensconced in the castle, and everyone else is a serf, scrabbling in the dirt. Such societies are relatively unpleasant to live in, even if you’re in the castle. They also tend to stagnate. Insular as they are, I would argue that even the super-rich at the top of the L-curve are actually better off if they have a few less millions and in return, they get to live in a background society that is better-educated and has less crime.

I would also argue the claim that taxing inheritance provides a major disincentive for the rich to accumulate wealth is specious. Have you actually known any multi-millionaires, up close and personal? It so happens that I have. Trust me, these guys would still accumulate wealth no matter how high the inheritance tax was raised. They’d still have it in their lifetimes to spend and enjoy as they will, and they like that. A lot. It’s a far bigger motivation for them than ultimately leaving it to the relatives. Plus, many of them will find a way to hide good chunks of it, no matter what scheme is implemented. It’s all a matter of degree. Let them have fairly huge inheritances of 10, 20, 30, 50 million, whatever. But when you get into the billions, that kind of money can’t really be encompassed by the human brain, nor even reasonably spent nor enjoyed by one person or one family. It gets into the realm of the abstract. Spend the money on education, some cleaner air and water, and buy everyone a better, more comfortable society to live in. I would also consider an income tax increase that targets only that immense vertical spike from the L-curve. Raise taxes on that super-rich 1% of the population, and lower taxes for everybody else. I would bet that includes everyone reading this; it includes the “ordinary” millionaires. There’s that hoary argument used in defense of the rich, that the wealthiest 10% pay about 50% of the taxes. Since they have 90% of the wealth, all that really means is that they are undertaxed, and the poor and ever-shrinking middle-class are paying more than their fair share. That top 1% that controls 40% to 50% of the nation’s wealth is simply not paying their fair share of taxes. Reform would ultimately result in a larger middle-class, fewer poor, more people becoming what we consider to be “rich”, and maybe a small decrease in the ranks of those scary super uber-rich.

This is a complex topic, and it would take at least several books to address completely. I would also just like to point out that we do not have perfect capitalistic markets, and a tax on these extreme amounts of accumulated wealth is one way of leveling that disparity. Take our friend Bill Gates. If you know something about the history of Microsoft, and all the nasty, under-handed, anti-competitive tactics that company successfully used, you also know the sales and pricing history of its operating system looks a lot more like a monopoly than a free market curve. Get a few economists together, (from disparate schools; even Keynesians and Friedmanites should be able to come to agreements on basic math) have them draw up the curves for what profits and sales would have been like under a true free market; compare that to the monopolistic market profits that actually resulted; tax hell out of the difference and put the money where it best alleviates the wrong without becoming too much of a logistical nightmare; say, equipping schools with updated computers and software.

Another point is the fact that many of the super-rich accumulated that mind-boggling wealth by dumping a huge chunk of the true costs on society, in the forms of dirty air, dirty water, toxic waste dumps, razed old-growth forests, and so on. Taxing that wealth is just a way of getting some of those real costs back to the people who were originally forced to pay them, and far more true to the spirit of a truly free capitalistic market (where producers pay the actual costs of production) than otherwise.

Maybe Pareto’s Law is not unreasonable. Maybe not. The problem is, we’ve reached a point where the actual numbers are far more skewed than that 80/20 ratio. Furthermore, the provided examples of Pareto’s Law ignore the above issues of real costs (that do have dollar values) of producing wealth (pollution, collusion, monopolies etc.) being shoved off onto others, by those who accumulate that wealth.

I noticed that some wealth distribution figures from the 1980’s were posted. As the original poster pointed out, these numbers have become far more skewed. As the OP pointed out, it is now estimated that the richest 1% have from 40% to 50% of the nation’s wealth. That’s just too much. Knock it back down to at least 30%. The rich will still be incredibly, grossly rich; but it will make a huge difference to the poor and the middle class, and the “ordinary” millionaire, for that matter.

From what I’ve heard, quite a bit actually. (But I don’t have a cite, sorry. Appropos nothing, I had this in mind when I ran to get Krugman’s book, but forgot about it by the time I made the post.) I wish Sam’s link had addressed this. But I concede that I have offered no counter-links.

And Krugman is much less partisan than Heritage, as anyone who read his Op-Ed pieces during the Clinton era can attest.

Scylla’s point I agree that compound interest is powerful. Alas, it also works in reverse, as those paying 18-20% on their credit cards discover.

Wow, beautiful post, gaeila.

And thanks to everyone else who’s participated so far for making this an extremely interesting thread.

Yes, but it’s quite disingenuous to say that 21st century America fits that description.

The trouble is that any attempt to create this “comfortable, pleasant” large middle class by government regulation, taxation, etc, tends to exacerbate the problem.

But you miss the point of why the death tax is bad for society. It causes the loss of small business and requires the untimely liquidation of assets to pay the taxes. If your parents own a grocery store and want to pass it to you upon death, you will find that you must sell or close the store in order to pay those taxes, potentially resulting in unemployment and definitely producing a detrimental result for society. Very little of the assets of the very wealthy are cash. Even for something as liquid as stock, think about what it would mean to all the millions of regular guys who hold Microsoft stock when Bill Gates dies and his heirs must sell 50% (or whatever confiscatory tax rate you would propose) of their stock holdings. The decline in value of Microsoft stock (and market capitalization of the company itself) would be quite injurious.

Well, we don’t tax wealth in this country at the federal level (at least while the person is alive), only income. Are you proposing wealth taxation? You’re going to destroy the lives of many little old ladies trying to survive on the life insurance left by their husbands, not to mention that small business would be devastated. The resultant unemployment is going to have you worrying about a lot more than whether someone managed to amass more wealth than you have.

This is called “Tragedy of the Commons” and is a well-recognized flaw in many economic systems. I agree that we must have a system in place to deal with it appropriately.

The “skewness” you mention is a logical consequence of a growing successful economy. Because the distribution is bounded on only one side, all increase in wealth of the society as a whole MUST result in increased skew. Your argument only proves that America is becoming wealthier. Not a bad thing in my mind.

Most of those who lived through the New Deal would disagree vehemently with you. In fact, the recent experience of the Reagon years is an even better reason to disagree. Tax cuts were needed; with inflation, the poor and middle class were being socked with tax rates that were historically reserved for the rich. When dollar amounts of everything rose, everyone was “rich”; at least in the eyes of the tax structure. The problem with the Reagan cuts, is they did it wrong; the richest of the rich benefited by far more than anybody else. The cuts should have been made much deeper up through that bottom 90%, cut a little deeper for the top 9%, and left alone, maybe even raised a little for that top 1%. Instead, we got what we have now; an ever-growing disparity between the top 1% of the population and everybody else, and an ever-shrinking middle class, tottering ever-nearer to the borderlines of poverty. This isn’t healthy. It’s not good for a democracy or a society in general to have that much wealth concentrated in the hands of so few.

No. None of these groups are in that top 1% of scary super uber-rich. All of these groups that you are concerned for here, would have their taxes decreased.

**
Executors currently get at least a year (with possible extensions) to deal with the liquidation of an estate. Stock prices fall when large institutional investors dump their shares (and it happens, frequently). They also go back up if it turns out the price drop was not realistic. Heirs often liquidate large estates, for reasons of their own. How is this less injurious? Market corrections happen every day. Stock is meant to be a long to medium term investments. Temporary declines happen every day, for a multitude of reasons. All the little guys you mention (who meanwhile, are also enjoying lower taxation since they’re not in that top 1%) have to do is wait it out, while the stock goes back up. If the only reason Microsoft stock keeps its current value is because a big chunk is artificially withheld from the market (tucked away in Bill’s basement) then it’s overvalued to begin with.

I can’t buy that one at all. So, ultimately, the more our economy grows, the more successful we are, the more overall income will skew? So, eventually, 0.1% of the population will own 99% of everything? Back to feudalism? Is there any percentage ratio of wealth concentration that would be high enough for you to say, “Enough! This is not making for a healthy society.”? For me, it’s 1% of the population owning 40% to 50% of the wealth. Let them be satisfied with 30%. They super-rich will still be disgustingly rich, but it will make quite a difference to everybody else.

I stand by my previous statements:
Implement income tax and estate tax increases that target only that immense vertical spike from the L-curve. Raise taxes on that super-rich 1% of the population, and lower taxes for everybody else. For the poor, middle-class, and even the “ordinary” rich (your average struggling multi-millionaire :slight_smile: ) chop taxes back to adjusted 1950’s equivalent levels. People who are working full-time but still struggling to get by, and who can’t even afford health insurance, shouldn’t be paying any income taxes at all. That’s how the income tax structure was originally set up, until inflation came along and pushed everyone into the tax brackets once reserved for the rich.

Somehow, my response to flex727 posted while it was still mid-way construction. The second post is the complete version.

If a moderator would care to remove the partial duplicate, I would be pleased to perform a tasteful happy dance.

Yes it will - everyone else will be worse off than they were. You see, typically the rich created the wealth they have. They did not take it from everyone else. In the process there is economic growth that enriches everyone, though to a lesser degree. If someone else becoming 100% richer causes me to become 10% richer, that is a tradeoff I will gladly take any day.

I’m a little confused as to why, other than envy, it disturbs you so much that ultra rich people exist. You want to have government take their wealth and give it to people. I contend that the wealth ends up in the hands of the rest of us anyway through spending and investment. I suppose that for me to obtain some of that wealth from a rich person I have to work for it, but to have it given to me (i.e. theft, even if by the government) is in my opinion immoral.

drachillix: Please don’t take this as me trying to be mean, but your example doesn’t sound like ‘I just barely get by living the frugal life.’

1300$/month in income and a 300$/month car payment?

Why?

You said this like you absolutely need a car, but really, 300$/month is nowhere near the bottom of the car payment range.

I make slightly (but not that much) more than 1300$/month and my car payment is slightly more than half of what yours is for a two year old car that had 15,000 miles on it when I bought it.

It’s not the slamminest, coolest car on the block and it doesn’t have all the luxury options - but that’s something that frugality dictated.

A car where I live is a necessity (no public transit), but a 300$/month car payment isn’t.