# The lady beggar--how did she do this? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [September 22, 2010, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lady-beggar-how-did-she-do-this/554690 "2010-09-22T19:41:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2010, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lady-beggar-how-did-she-do-this/554690/181 "2010-09-28T16:51:54Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > Almost. I looked in my wallet. 58 cents, a quarter short of 83. So I looked into my pocket. Guess what? A quarter. 83 cents! Then I looked in my other pocket. Two dimes. $1.03. Almost. Sure, but if you had the woman in front of you, and you then hit $.83, would you have kept looking for those dimes? Why are things always in the last place you look? -Joe ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2010, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lady-beggar-how-did-she-do-this/554690/182 "2010-09-28T19:20:27Z")
> [@Merijeek](#): > > Why are things always in the last place you look? > > -Joe Whenever I look for something, I look in one more place after I find it, just to prove that false. ---
**Author:** ![Shot\_From\_Guns](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ccd318/32.png) [@Shot\_From\_Guns](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shot_From_Guns)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2010, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lady-beggar-how-did-she-do-this/554690/183 "2010-09-28T20:24:08Z")
> [@Merijeek](#): > > Sure, but if you had the woman in front of you, and you then hit $.83, would you have kept looking for those dimes? I think that was, you know, the point. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2010, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lady-beggar-how-did-she-do-this/554690/184 "2010-09-28T20:58:56Z")
[Hopefully this poll will provide some more info.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=579980) At least it should reject (or perhaps corroborate) the hypotheses that some amounts of change are so much more likely than others, that it figures into the trick. I predict that amounts involving 3 pennies (.03, .08, .13, etc.) will be more likely, but not enough to make a profitable trick out of it. ---
**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2010, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lady-beggar-how-did-she-do-this/554690/185 "2010-09-29T01:45:04Z")
> [@bup](#): > > [Hopefully this poll will provide some more info.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=579980) At least it should reject (or perhaps corroborate) the hypotheses that some amounts of change are so much more likely than others, that it figures into the trick. > > I predict that amounts involving 3 pennies (.03, .08, .13, etc.) will be more likely, but not enough to make a profitable trick out of it. It looks like zero and “$1 or greater” are winning out. ---
**Author:** ![scm1001](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c4cdca/32.png) [@scm1001](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scm1001)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2010, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lady-beggar-how-did-she-do-this/554690/186 "2010-09-29T02:33:44Z")
> [@Hilarity\_N.Suze](#): > > Now, I mentioned this at home. One of my kids said that in high school they had someone who, in a class, did a thing where he’d have you write down three words on a sheet of paper. He’s a little hazy on the details, but something like: Write the first word, fold the paper down, write the second word, fold the paper down. The person doing the trick also wrote down three words. Then they turned and showed their words to the class. Same words. > > The girl in question did this trick a few times with different people, always getting the right answers. Then another kid in the class saw the trick, so he tried it with someone who hadn’t yet done it, and he got it right. This could be a variety of the one ahead trick. get ten people to put a message in separate envelopes. Put the first one to your head and announce the message - open and ask the ten if it matched any of their messages. repeat for all ten The trick is that you have one confederate for which you know the message (and you make sure his envelope is last). You take some else’s envelope, announce your confederates message, and then open and read the message inside, which you give for the second envelope and so on. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2010, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lady-beggar-how-did-she-do-this/554690/187 "2010-09-29T17:13:19Z")
> [@davidm](#): > > > [@bup](#): > > > > [Hopefully this poll will provide some more info.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=579980) At least it should reject (or perhaps corroborate) the hypotheses that some amounts of change are so much more likely than others, that it figures into the trick. > > > > I predict that amounts involving 3 pennies (.03, .08, .13, etc.) will be more likely, but not enough to make a profitable trick out of it. > > It looks like zero and “$1 or greater” are winning out. Yes, but even if we discard all the zero’s (which there’s a good argument for - first, it’s pointless for a beggar to guess zero because even if she’s right she loses, second, because many people said in the comments they were in gym shorts or otherwise pocketless and they had change in their cars), I think we can safely reject the hypothesis that 83 cents, 31 cents, or 21 cents are just common amounts of change people have. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2010, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lady-beggar-how-did-she-do-this/554690/188 "2010-09-29T17:30:50Z")
Don’t you guys get it yet? The beggar lady wins every time someone feels sorry for her and gives her their change. The part about guessing the amount is just a means to get people to take out their money. If she guesses right occasionally, its just luck. She might notice some more common amounts of change that win the bet, but the numbers she uses are more likely associated with people’s willingness to give up the money than the guessing the right amount. There is no way to significantly increase the chances of a correct guess based on the OPs description of the events. ---
**Author:** ![Shot\_From\_Guns](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ccd318/32.png) [@Shot\_From\_Guns](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shot_From_Guns)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2010, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lady-beggar-how-did-she-do-this/554690/189 "2010-09-29T17:43:35Z")
If only someone else had suggested this incredibly original theory somewhere else in the thread. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2010, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lady-beggar-how-did-she-do-this/554690/190 "2010-09-29T19:35:41Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > Don’t you guys get it yet? The beggar lady wins every time someone feels sorry for her and gives her their change. The part about guessing the amount is just a means to get people to take out their money. That may very well be the case. **Hilarity** reports that in her personal experience, though, the woman is 3 for 3. It’s interesting to consider if, and how, she is more accurate than random guessing. ---
**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2010, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lady-beggar-how-did-she-do-this/554690/191 "2010-09-29T22:07:42Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > Don’t you guys get it yet? The beggar lady wins every time someone feels sorry for her and gives her their change. The part about guessing the amount is just a means to get people to take out their money. If she guesses right occasionally, its just luck. She might notice some more common amounts of change that win the bet, but the numbers she uses are more likely associated with people’s willingness to give up the money than the guessing the right amount. There is no way to significantly increase the chances of a correct guess based on the OPs description of the events. You could increase the odds considerably in the case of the coffee shop, where she may have noted what they were drinking and knew the costs of those drinks. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2010, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lady-beggar-how-did-she-do-this/554690/192 "2010-09-29T22:08:22Z")
> [@bup](#): > > That may very well be the case. **Hilarity** reports that in her personal experience, though, the woman is 3 for 3. It’s interesting to consider if, and how, she is more accurate than random guessing. That is not even correct. Hilarity claims no more than 2 for 2 if you read the whole thread. And I question the accuracy of the second guess. On top of that Hilarity admits not having a precise recollection of the events. ---
**Author:** ![PlainJain](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/5daacb/32.png) [@PlainJain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PlainJain)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2010, 6:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lady-beggar-how-did-she-do-this/554690/193 "2010-09-30T06:57:27Z")
> [@bup](#): > > **Hilarity** reports that in her personal experience… And on these boards anecdotes count for SO much. ---
**Author:** ![sjc](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e5b9ba/32.png) [@sjc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sjc)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2010, 5:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lady-beggar-how-did-she-do-this/554690/194 "2010-10-01T05:59:49Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > > [@bup](#): > > > > That may very well be the case. **Hilarity** reports that in her personal experience, though, the woman is 3 for 3. It’s interesting to consider if, and how, she is more accurate than random guessing. > > That is not even correct. Hilarity claims no more than 2 for 2 if you read the whole thread. And I question the accuracy of the second guess. On top of that Hilarity admits not having a precise recollection of the events. Actually, we don’t know where she stands. All we know is she’s at least 2 for something (presuming HNS’s recollection is correct), and that something is almost certainly larger than 2. If she runs this scam on a regular basis, it could be 2 out of 300 or something like that rather than 2 for 2. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2010, 6:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lady-beggar-how-did-she-do-this/554690/195 "2010-10-01T06:09:06Z")
> [@sjc](#): > > > [@TriPolar](#): > > > > That is not even correct. Hilarity claims no more than 2 for 2 if you read the whole thread. And I question the accuracy of the second guess. On top of that Hilarity admits not having a precise recollection of the events. > > Actually, we don’t know where she stands. All we know is she’s at least 2 for something (presuming HNS’s recollection is correct), and that something is almost certainly larger than 2. If she runs this scam on a regular basis, it could be 2 out of 300 or something like that rather than 2 for 2. We know Hilarity stands at 2 for 2. The beggar lady maybe anything from 0 for 2, to who knows, or cares what. She’s came out ahead from Hilarity and her friend. And probably others as well, and she doesn’t have to guess right once to make it work. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lady-beggar-how-did-she-do-this/554690.md?page=9)