# The last primary is over! Let's handicap the Congressional elections! **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 25, 2006, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004 "2006-09-25T01:31:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2006, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/121 "2006-10-20T16:48:30Z")
[QUOTE=E-Sabbath] Dems might lose Jersey. I’m thinking 50-50 even, counting Lieberman on the Dem side is more likely. House? 230 is stretching it, I think. More like 225-227. Provided nothing else explodes. It might. We got a few weeks left. [/QUOTE] Democrats are a resourceful lot, they could figure out some way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2006, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/122 "2006-10-20T17:27:40Z")
[QUOTE=col\_10022] Alec Baldwin is a self-proclaimed wingnut. [/QUOTE] What is [there](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alec_Baldwin#Criticism) that makes him a wingnut? The bit about lynching Henry Hyde was parody (not that it would have been regrettable otherwise) . . . Baldwin has called W a “trust fund puppet”; Cheney a “terrorist,” a “constitution hating psychopath” and a “hate-filled maniac”; Fox News Channel “Roger Ailes’ Luftwaffe/Loony Bin news operation”; Sean Hannity a “no-talent hack”. Fair judgments all. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2006, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/123 "2006-10-20T17:48:30Z")
It seems the Senate is shaping up thus: Give each side 48 seats. That leaves NJ, TN, VA, and MO. If the Dems get 3 or 4, they win and if not it’s another 2 years of Republican control. NJ could go either way. Menendez isn’t a choir boy by any means and it wouldn’t astound me if Kean winds up with it. TN and MO are looking to fall in the Democratic column. Seeing Talent and McCaskill side by side I was impressed by her and definitely not by him. VA could go either way as well. As long as Allen has a foot and a gun, he’s going to keep shooting himself. Of the four, I’d give this the best shot for a GOP win. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2006, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/124 "2006-10-20T18:36:23Z")
Macaca-head seems to be gaining in the polls, the stupider he acts. NJ’s real tight. Man, this is how I like politics. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2006, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/125 "2006-10-20T19:14:05Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] What is [there](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alec_Baldwin#Criticism) that makes him a wingnut? The bit about lynching Henry Hyde was parody (not that it would have been regrettable otherwise) . . . Baldwin has called W a “trust fund puppet”; Cheney a “terrorist,” a “constitution hating psychopath” and a “hate-filled maniac”; Fox News Channel “Roger Ailes’ Luftwaffe/Loony Bin news operation”; Sean Hannity a “no-talent hack”. Fair judgments all. [/QUOTE] I didn’t say he was a wingnut, back in the day when he was denying political aspirations, I believe he said he was too radical to get elected. I think he engages in a lot of rhetoric but I wouldn’t call him a wingnut. ---
**Author:** ![CandidGamera](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/candidgamera/32/2878_2.png) [@CandidGamera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CandidGamera)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2006, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/126 "2006-10-20T19:38:27Z")
[QUOTE=E-Sabbath] Dems might lose Jersey. I’m thinking 50-50 even, counting Lieberman on the Dem side is more likely. House? 230 is stretching it, I think. More like 225-227. Provided nothing else explodes. It might. We got a few weeks left. [/QUOTE] Those numbers don’t add up. ---
**Author:** ![CandidGamera](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/candidgamera/32/2878_2.png) [@CandidGamera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CandidGamera)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2006, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/127 "2006-10-20T19:39:41Z")
[QUOTE=CandidGamera] Those numbers don’t add up. [/QUOTE] Ohh, you know what? I just realized you were giving a range, not a side vs. side tally. Nevermind! ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2006, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/128 "2006-10-21T00:07:02Z")
[QUOTE=BobLibDem] TN and MO are looking to fall in the Democratic column. [/QUOTE] I have to wonder how much the race factor has to be discounted in the TN polls. If it’s there at all, and it very likely is, then it isn’t a tie; Corker’s solidly ahead. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2006, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/129 "2006-10-21T02:22:17Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] I have to wonder how much the race factor has to be discounted in the TN polls. If it’s there at all, and it very likely is, then it isn’t a tie; Corker’s solidly ahead. [/QUOTE] I hadn’t thought of that. People might tell the pollsters they favor the black candidate just to appear open-minded. I hope there isn’t much of that. The lastest poll I saw had Ford up 50-45, I can’t imagine that the race factor is making Ford look that much better. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2006, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/130 "2006-10-21T23:09:05Z")
[QUOTE=col\_10022] Democrats are a resourceful lot, they could figure out some way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. [/QUOTE] If the Dems lose the Senate, I wouldn’t call that “snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.” It’s been predicted as a close contest all along, never really the Dems victory to lose. If they win it will be REMARKABLE considering all the gerrymandering and voter suppression the Pubbies have engaged in. I would REALLY like it that if the Dems win a few statehouses over, they start using voter suppression tactics on wealthy white people in the suburbs. Let THEM spend a few hours waiting in the rain to vote. Serve 'em fucking right, it would. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2006, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/131 "2006-10-21T23:13:59Z")
[QUOTE=Evil Captor] If the Dems lose the Senate, I wouldn’t call that “snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.” It’s been predicted as a close contest all along, never really the Dems victory to lose. If they win it will be REMARKABLE considering all the gerrymandering and voter suppression the Pubbies have engaged in. [/QUOTE] How does gerrymandering affect the Senate vote? ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2006, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/132 "2006-10-21T23:17:15Z")
You know, John: partitioning the states so that they’ve got all those red ones. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2006, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/133 "2006-10-21T23:20:01Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] How does gerrymandering affect the Senate vote? [/QUOTE] Good point. Strike gerrymandering. Substitute “dirty tricks.” Point still stands, hwoever. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2006, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/134 "2006-10-22T00:39:14Z")
Missourian (from Roy Blunt’s district no less) checking in. With the corruption allegations, I’m not confident in the uprightness of McCaskill personally, but even if everything they say about her is true, I doubt she could continue to do much harm to Mo. nursing homes in DC, so I’m willing to overlook that. I thought Talent lost points in the Meet the Press debate. I have taped a debate they did for KY3-TV in Springfield, Mo., but not watched it yet. My feeling from history is that Missouri is likely (though not certain) to go Democrat statewide (which is the Senate seat & one executive office this year). The state tends to reflect the mood of the country at large. I regret that Roy Blunt, who’s been tarred by the Abramoff scandal (&, while not the most conspicuously corrupt pol in the state, was not exactly known as Mr. Clean before) will probably hold his Senate seat without breathing hard. In a corrupt system, the people at the top are the problem, but I suspect the Republicans in most danger are those lower down. Seeing the machine heads raise the public’s ire & ruin the junior pol’s careers while the heads skate through may have the long-term effect of encouraging corruption in those who want political careers. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2006, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/135 "2006-10-22T00:43:21Z")
[QUOTE=foolsguinea] I thought Talent lost points in the Meet the Press debate. I have taped a debate they did for KY3-TV in Springfield, Mo., but not watched it yet. [/QUOTE] Actually, neither came off particularly well too me. Claire was maybe a little too party-line. But that’s not the point. A libertarian friend of mine is backing McCaskill now, even though he disagrees with her, because he thinks Bush needs a stronger check on his behavior than his own party is willing to provide. And that thinking is going to get a lot of people to hold their noses & vote for Dems they don’t personally like this year. (But hey, I liked McCaskill for governor two years ago. I’m biased.) ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2006, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/136 "2006-10-22T21:05:19Z")
May as well close this thread, the outcome of the election’s been decided: [Bush chides father for election remarks](http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=domesticNews&storyID=2006-10-22T193206Z_01_N22305445_RTRUKOC_0_US-BUSH-FATHER.xml&WTmodLoc=USNewsHome_C1_%5BFeed%5D-5) > [@](#): > > President Bush gently admonished his father for saying he hates to think what life would be like for his son if the Democrats win control of Congress in the November 7 election. > > It was the latest sign of possible strain in the relationship between the two men. > > “**He shouldn’t be speculating like this, because – he should have called me ahead of time and I’d tell him they’re not going to (win)**,” a smiling Bush told ABC “This Week” in an interview broadcast on Sunday. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2006, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/137 "2006-10-22T21:10:08Z")
> [@GHW Bush](#): > > he hates to think what life would be like for his son if the Democrats win control of Congress in the November 7 election. Strange. I rather enjoy the possibilities. Savor them, as a matter of fact. ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2006, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/138 "2006-10-23T00:41:41Z")
So, is Dubya admitting that the fix is in? -Joe ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2006, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/139 "2006-10-23T02:43:21Z")
Could his denial run that deep? [Maybe so:](http://www.coxwashington.com/reporters/content/reporters/stories/2006/10/08/BC_BUSH_DEMOCRATS06_COX.html) > [@](#): > > Administration spokesman Tony Snow insisted Thursday the White House is doing nothing by way of staffing or strategy to prepare for the possibility that it could be operating with a hostile Congress come January. > … > > “We will retain control of both houses,” Vice President Cheney said in a Wednesday interview with The Washington Times. > > Ditto from President Bush in the Rose Garden last month. > > “I don’t believe the Democrats are going to take over because our record on the economy is strong,” Bush said. > > On Thursday, Snow shrugged off a question about how life would change if Democrats took over and whether the White House is doing anything to prepare for that possibility. > > “The answer to the first is: chin-pulling, hypothetical,” he said. “The answer to the second is no.” ---
**Author:** ![Caridwen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c89c15/32.png) [@Caridwen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Caridwen)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2006, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/140 "2006-10-23T03:45:36Z")
[QUOTE=col\_10022] Alec Baldwin is a self-proclaimed wingnut. McCain is a frontrunner for presidential candidate. Don’t get me wrong, I like McCain but he seems to be going the extra mile to appear partisan these days. [/QUOTE] Why should McCain try to appear non-partisan when he clearly isn’t? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004.md?page=8)