# The last primary is over! Let's handicap the Congressional elections! **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 25, 2006, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004 "2006-09-25T01:31:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2006, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/161 "2006-10-26T23:51:15Z")
Here are a round up of some of the latest House and Senate projections from the pundits [Electoral-vote.com](http://www.electoral-vote.com) Senate 51 R, 49 D House 206 R, 227 D, 2 two close to call [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball](http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/) Senate Democrats gain 3 to 6 seats (R 49, D 47, 4 seats too close to call) House Democrats gain 21 to 26 seats (Of the 63 Republican seats “in play”, 12 are leaning to the Democrats, and 16 are too close to call. No Democratic House seats are predicted to go Republican) [Congressional Quarterly](http://www.cqpolitics.com/) Projected Senate 48 D, 49 R, three no clear favorites Prorjected House 210 D, 207 R, 18 no clear favorites [Dan Balz and Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign06/countdown.html) Senate Of 9 contested races, 5 lean Democratic, 4 are tossups House Of 35 contested races, 5 lean Republican, 12 lean Democratic, 15 are tossups [The New York Times](http://www.nytimes.com/pages/politics/index.html) Senate 48 D, 48 R, 4 tossups House 214 D, 205 R, 16 tossups ---
**Author:** ![Patty\_O\_Furniture](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/96bed5/32.png) [@Patty\_O\_Furniture](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Patty_O_Furniture)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2006, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/162 "2006-10-27T00:25:58Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] If you click along, you’ll find the guy does make projections based on straight-line extrapolations of the last 2 polls, but that’s so useless it’s surprising he bothers. [/QUOTE] Are you talking about the trend lines? Why are they useless? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2006, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/163 "2006-10-27T00:31:45Z")
Actually, it looks like he isn’t doing it this year, or hasn’t yet. In previous years, he’s taken a straight line from one point to the next, ran it to Election Day, and called that a projected result. If a candidate had 50% 2 weeks before and 55% 1 week before, he’d predict 60% on Election Day. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2006, 12:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/164 "2006-10-27T12:32:31Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] Actually, it looks like he isn’t doing it this year, or hasn’t yet. In previous years, he’s taken a straight line from one point to the next, ran it to Election Day, and called that a projected result. If a candidate had 50% 2 weeks before and 55% 1 week before, he’d predict 60% on Election Day. [/QUOTE] You can see the trend lines if you click on one of the states in which there’s a race. That’ll bring up a graoh. Then click “show trend lines”. It shows a trend line based on the last four polls. ---
**Author:** ![pantom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/34f0e0/32.png) [@pantom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pantom)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2006, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/165 "2006-10-29T16:58:50Z")
[Current quotes from the Iowa Electronic Market](http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/congress06_quotes.html) for politics. Interesting stuff. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2006, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/166 "2006-10-29T17:02:52Z")
[QUOTE=pantom] [Current quotes from the Iowa Electronic Market](http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/congress06_quotes.html) for politics. Interesting stuff. [/QUOTE] Can someone translate this to something I can understand. Bid ask last huh? ---
**Author:** ![RickG](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rickg/32/5174_2.png) [@RickG](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickG)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2006, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/167 "2006-10-29T17:47:01Z")
[QUOTE=BobLibDem] Can someone translate this to something I can understand. Bid ask last huh? [/QUOTE] The IEM is like a stock market. There are actually three markets for Congressional control this year: [ol] [li]Congress06–contracts in this market represent the possible combinations of control of both houses[/li][list=a] [li]RH\_RS06 - both houses remain in Republican control[/li][li]RH\_NS06 - Republicans control the House, non-Rebublicans control the Senate[/li][li]NH\_RS06 - Non-Republicans control the House, Republicans control the Senate[/li][li]NH\_NS06 - Non-Republicans control both houses[/li][/ol] [li]House06–contracts in this market represent possible outcomes of the House races[/li][list=a] [li]RHgain06 - Republicans gain seats in the House[/li][li]RHhold06 - Republicans hold their majority, but lose seats[/li][li]RHlose06 - Republicans lose control of the House[/li][/list] [li]Senate06–contracts in this market represent possible outcomes of the Senate races[/li][list=a] [li]RSgain06 - Republicans gain seats in the Senate[/li][li]RShold06 - Republicans lose seats but retain their majority[/li][li]RSlose06 - Republicans lose control of the Senate[/li][/list] [/list] These contracts are all futures contracts, and holders of the contracts that represent the actual situation after the election is over receive $1 per held contract. All the other contracts are worthless after Election Day. Bid, ask, and last represent, respectively, the price a buyer is willing to pay, a seller is willing to accept, and the last price at which a transaction was made. Look at the last price to get a reasonable idea of what the participants in the market think about the relative probability of any particular outcome. Looking at prices as of today, the consensus seems to be that the Repbulicans will lose the House (2 to 1 over holding–chances to gain are nearly zero). Senate is predicted to remain in Republican hands (hold, but lose seats, is favored 3 to 1 over losing control completely). In the combined control futures, the most likely outcome reflects the figures for the separate House and Senate markets. Does that help? -Rick ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2006, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/168 "2006-10-30T18:08:25Z")
And Jean Schmidt (R-Ohio) commits political suicide in an otherwise close congressional race, when [she supported a study to store nuclear waste in Ohio](http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061029/NEWS01/610290398/1056/COL02): > [@](#): > > Schmidt said she sees potential to create “hundreds, maybe thousands of jobs” in an economically distressed part of the state, where double-digit unemployment rates are the norm. I liked this part: > [@](#): > > “All I can tell you is that when it became known that she supports this, every Jean Schmidt yard sign in the county went down overnight,” said Geoffrey Sea, a writer whose home abuts the Piketon plant. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2006, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/169 "2006-10-30T18:23:25Z")
[QUOTE=RickG] The IEM is like a stock market. [/QUOTE] Actually it sounds more like making book. (There’s a difference, right?) And gambling debts are not legally enforceable – not even in Nevada, AFAIK. So what’s this crap about “contracts”? ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2006, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/170 "2006-10-30T18:32:13Z")
[QUOTE=RickG] The IEM is like a stock market. There are actually three markets for Congressional control this year: … Does that help? -Rick [/QUOTE] Only helps a little. Sort of like going from Swahili to Greek. But your interpretation was interesting even if I’m clueless about stock markets and gambling. ---
**Author:** ![RickG](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rickg/32/5174_2.png) [@RickG](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickG)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2006, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/171 "2006-10-30T19:18:29Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Actually it sounds more like making book. (There’s a difference, right?) And gambling debts are not legally enforceable – not even in Nevada, AFAIK. So what’s this crap about “contracts”? [/QUOTE] Actually, I misspoke. It’s really a futures market. You **are** betting on the final outcome of the election. However, for some reason [it appears to be legal](http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/faq.html#Regulated). Perhaps it’s considered a game of skill? 🙂 Futures are “contracts” in the sense that they are an agreement to buy or sell at a particular price at a particular time. In this case, the contract is with the operators of the market, where they will pay you $1 or $0 (the liquidation price) for each contract you hold at the time of the election, depending on whether the actual outcome matches the outcome specified on that particular contract. The operators of the IEM are professors of business at the U of Iowa, and the market is not-for-profit (although the individual participants may make or lose money). They are attempting to learn if real money markets are better at predicting outcomes than pundits or polls. This is clearly an arguable position. I have not sifted through their closed markets to see how they have done historically, but IIRC the results of the last Presidential race were reasonably close the final outcome. Note: I am not now, nor have I ever been a participant in the IEM. I just find it interesting. I’m also hoping the market is wrong on the Senate race (though not optimistic). -Rick ---
**Author:** ![Apos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/838e76/32.png) [@Apos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Apos)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2006, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/172 "2006-10-30T19:50:56Z")
To nitpick, a poll that says 48% to 47% with a MoE of 3% is not a statistical tie. 48% to 47% with a MoE of 3% doesn’t mean that its equally likely that either person could be ahead: there’s still a greater overall chance that the 48% person is ahead. 47% to 47% with a MoE of anything is a statistical tie. ---
**Author:** ![Apos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/838e76/32.png) [@Apos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Apos)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2006, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/173 "2006-10-30T20:01:08Z")
At this point in the race, I’m far less hopeful of a Democratic sweep. I think it’s possible that the Dems will only barely take the house, and I think taking the Senate is unlikely. However, I’m pretty happy with that. Ohio will be going solid for a federal Democrat or two for the first time in a long time in truly contested a federal election: that’s a big deal. With the Dems controlling the House, and their fortunes even more hopeful for 2008, this pretty much puts the kibosh on Republican legislative shennanigans from here on out. Even if they don’t take the Senate, they will be so close that it will seriously undermine the Republican ability to do damage: Cheney having to come into play as a tiebreaker is a sign of weakness, not strength. In some ways, its even sort of good for Dems to not take Congress completely. The Iraq war is going to continue to be a huge mess no matter who is in power: it’s basically too late. That stone is going to sink whomever is clearly in charge, which mostly means Bush… but Bush isn’t running again. A marginally Republican Senate would give the Dems the cover they need to not be totally blamed for doing something about Iraq. If they have both houses, then they might well be expected to do something… and I don’t think there is much that can be done at this point. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2006, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/174 "2006-10-30T22:10:23Z")
[Preemptive Shredding at Cheney’s Place](http://www.wonkette.com/politics/dick-cheney/shreddin-with-dick-211028.php) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2006, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/175 "2006-11-04T17:11:07Z")
Today [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com) is showing the Montana, Missouri and Virginia Senate races as “Barely Dem,” and projects (?) a Senate with 51 Dems, 49 Pubs, a House with 240 Dems, 195 Pubs. Shred, Dick! Shred! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2006, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/176 "2006-11-04T17:17:24Z")
But, of course, that includes “Fightin’ Joe” Lieberman as a Dem. Two bits says, under the above conditions, he backstabs, making it 50-50 with Cheney in the catbird seat. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2006, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/177 "2006-11-06T02:39:17Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] But, of course, that includes “Fightin’ Joe” Lieberman as a Dem. Two bits says, under the above conditions, he backstabs, making it 50-50 with Cheney in the catbird seat. [/QUOTE] At least he is willing to break with his party when he disagrees. We are making a statement about the war and President Bush this election and we are punishing Republican generally because they went along to get along. In some cases we are ousting good Republicans like Chaffee just to make a point and in Lieberman’s case, I think he realizes that losing the primary was a message being sent directly to him and he will mend his ways. ---
**Author:** ![SmackFu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/53a042/32.png) [@SmackFu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmackFu)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2006, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/178 "2006-11-06T04:59:46Z")
Lieberman will lean Republican just enough to get elected, and then be his own self once he gets back to Washington. But with even more power. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2006, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/179 "2006-11-06T05:09:01Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] But, of course, that includes “Fightin’ Joe” Lieberman as a Dem. Two bits says, under the above conditions, he backstabs, making it 50-50 with Cheney in the catbird seat. [/QUOTE] So long as he keeps his seniority, I doubt it. It would be stupid of him to. He agrees with the national party on most of the issues, and doing something like that, he would destroy any Democratic support he has in Connecticut. Democratic Lieberman supporters are willing to vote for him on Tuesday so long as he runs as an independent and votes with the Dems, If he crosses over, he’ll lose all that support. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2006, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004/180 "2006-11-08T14:29:03Z")
> [@Kimstu](#): > > Well, I’ll stick my neck out on this one—not race by race, but the overall result: > > The official Kimstu Prediction is that the Republicans will retain majorities in both the House and the Senate, if only by a whisker. I would love to be proved wrong but I don’t think I will be. Apparently I suck as an electoral forecaster. Not sure yet exactly how much, though, as I haven’t heard the outcome of all the Senate races. > [@Kimstu](#): > > Actually, from a purely partisan perspective I almost don’t want to be, because at this point I think any Democratic control of Congress would merely provide ass-cover for the Republicans for the next two years. IMO, so many things have been fucked up so severely by the current government that even the most principled and energetic Democratic-majority Congress in the world (and that’s a far cry from the Democratic-majority Congress we might actually get, mind you) couldn’t do much to fix them. > > A Dem majority would simply give Republicans the opportunity to say “Huh! The other guys don’t have any good ideas either, all they can do is criticize!” Bet I’m going to be right about that part, though. > [@Kimstu](#): > > Part of me would rather just leave the Republicans carrying the can for their whole mess, in the hope of provoking a massive throw-the-bums-out orgy in 2008. > > On the other hand…if opposition-party sanity or even sheer partisan gridlock could slow down the current power-frenzied madness, it would be worth it. So on the whole, I still hope my prediction is wrong. Well, I got my wish, and now I’ll just keep hoping for things to go better than I think they will, so the Dems can get some real leverage out of it in '08. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-last-primary-is-over-lets-handicap-the-congressional-elections/374004.md?page=10)