# The likelihood of the Senate turning blue in 2018 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 21, 2017, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likelihood-of-the-senate-turning-blue-in-2018/782707 "2017-03-21T18:20:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Silver\_lining](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aca169/32.png) [@Silver\_lining](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_lining)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2017, 9:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likelihood-of-the-senate-turning-blue-in-2018/782707/21 "2017-03-26T09:10:18Z")
2 months can feel like 2 years in politics. I think we will get a better idea of how things are trending in early 2018. I think Democrats will lose 3-5 seats in the senate. The house is harder to predict. I think the Republicans will maintain the majority here, but by how much I won’t guess. One problem Democrats always face is low voter turn out in mid term elections. Some of their base needs celebrity appearances, concerts and such rallied around a popular figure running for office, which is almost always happens when the President is up for re-election. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2017, 11:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likelihood-of-the-senate-turning-blue-in-2018/782707/22 "2017-03-26T11:39:43Z")
The thing about midterms though is that you don’t need your base. The last few midterm waves haven’t been because of high or low base turnout, but simply because independents went 2-1 for one or the other party. Midterms are when appealing to independents is most vital. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2017, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likelihood-of-the-senate-turning-blue-in-2018/782707/23 "2017-03-27T13:13:41Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > In her particular case, not really. When was the last time Maine had an actual Democratic Senator? Snowe and Collins and now King are practically untouchable. King caucuses with the Democrats, so bully for you, but he owes the party nothing and can go rogue on any vote he wants without consequence because they need him more than he needs them. Collins may suffer due to the presence of the criminally insane Republican governor of her state. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2017, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likelihood-of-the-senate-turning-blue-in-2018/782707/24 "2017-03-31T20:56:08Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > I’d rather beat Cruz but Collins’ seat is far easier to get. There was a recent story about [some guy from El Paso](http://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2017/03/31/beto-orourke-launches-2018-senate-campaign-underdog-bid-challenge-ted-cruz) who has big dreams of taking Cruzted’s seat but it really would be a long, long shot. I mean, Cruzted has an unbeatable ace in the hole: “_Re-elect me or I will come back to Texas_.” ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2017, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likelihood-of-the-senate-turning-blue-in-2018/782707/25 "2017-04-01T02:50:22Z")
Joaquin Castro is considering trying the race. If Democrats really want to promote the Castro brothers are rising stars, they have to win statewide. There’s just no other way. ---
**Author:** ![Anny\_Middon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/bc79bd/32.png) [@Anny\_Middon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anny_Middon)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2017, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likelihood-of-the-senate-turning-blue-in-2018/782707/26 "2017-04-01T22:38:25Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > I think its because the “old” contain overwhelming numbers of rancid fascist bigoted scum who have have spent decades despoiling democracy by enabling scummier scum from McCarthy through Nixon, Reagan, Bush, Gingrich, and the current crowd of losers and enriched bottomfeeding scumsuckers like Limbaugh, Beck, Levin, Breitbart, and Coulter, and whoever the right has vomited into the mouth of America this week. > > The greatest generation, my ass. > > As an elderly white man I hate the feeling that I need to constantly wear a shirt emblazoned with WE’RE NOT ALL LIKE THAT. > > Those who are like that can’t die off too soon. I’m 63, so probably not old enough to be in the old-conservative group. Based on the people I know who are older than I though, if Ryan gets his way and tries to mess with Social Security and Medicare, those “rancid fascist bigoted scum” may well start voting Democratic. I don’t think the Pubs are stupid enough to mess with SS and Medicare, but then I didn’t think they were stupid enough to come up a hot mess like the AHCA after having seven years’ time to come up with something better. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2017, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likelihood-of-the-senate-turning-blue-in-2018/782707/27 "2017-04-02T00:06:00Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Collins may suffer due to the presence of the criminally insane Republican governor of her state. Not quite. She may suffer due to the criminally insane \*electorate \*of her state who \*made \*him Governor. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likelihood-of-the-senate-turning-blue-in-2018/782707.md?page=1)