# The likely effect of mass shootings on the 2020 elections. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 3, 2019, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likely-effect-of-mass-shootings-on-the-2020-elections/839614 "2019-09-03T02:51:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2019, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likely-effect-of-mass-shootings-on-the-2020-elections/839614/1 "2019-09-03T02:51:47Z")
The dynamic on the gun issue has always been that the pro-gun voter votes on that issue, but the pro-gun control voter does not. Is that likely to change as an outgrowth of the mass shootings? Will the mobilization of pro-gun control forces taken in combination with the problems being faced with the NRA change the dynamics? ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2019, 12:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likely-effect-of-mass-shootings-on-the-2020-elections/839614/2 "2019-09-03T12:49:56Z")
I’d say minimal at best. Ideologues on both sides are already in separate camps, so to speak, and would never cross over. It’s possible that continued mass shootings could move some people in the squishy middle for whom guns have never been a top three issue - I’d bet there’s a lot of those people out there - and in a tight election it could tip some congressional and state-level seats. But in terms of mass shootings, I don’t see the issue moving millions of votes. ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2019, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likely-effect-of-mass-shootings-on-the-2020-elections/839614/3 "2019-09-03T13:57:43Z")
I can’t imagine it’s going to make any real difference. The right will either not answer the questions, answer them with some version of ‘our thoughts and prayers are with the victims of [most recent shooting(s)] but this isn’t the time or place to be discussing gun control’. The left will push for more gun control, which will run the gamut from requiring more/better background checks to getting rid of guns altogether. I think an insignificant number of middle of the road voters will cross the aisle because they tired of all the shootings or cross the other way because they want easier access to guns to protect themselves because of all the shootings. Like many other issues, it seems we can already took a good guess at what a candidate, based on their political party, will say or want to do. So much so that I wish we’d move past the topic and find other things to discuss. Republicans want less restrictions on guns, democrats want more. Do we really have to listen to 10’s or 100’s of hours of discussion and debate about it over the next year? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2019, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likely-effect-of-mass-shootings-on-the-2020-elections/839614/4 "2019-09-03T14:07:34Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > Ideologues on both sides I would have \*hoped \*you knew better. > [@](#): > > But in terms of mass shootings, I don’t see the issue moving millions of votes. As long as it can be made clear that the Republicans, led by McConnell, are obstructing progress on saving lives, it \*will \*move votes - and it won’t take many. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2019, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likely-effect-of-mass-shootings-on-the-2020-elections/839614/5 "2019-09-03T14:13:41Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > As long as it can be made clear that the Republicans, led by McConnell, are obstructing progress on saving lives, it \*will \*move votes - and it won’t take many. That can’t be made clear, because it is an argument that only appeals to ideologues on one side. “Republicans don’t care about lives” is the left-wing equivalent of “thoughts and prayers”. It’s the expression of emotion, not policy. And once policy becomes the center of discussion, it loses relevance. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2019, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likely-effect-of-mass-shootings-on-the-2020-elections/839614/6 "2019-09-03T14:16:57Z")
I doubt it will have any significant effect. I think that sadly, mass shootings have become background noise to Americans, broadly speaking. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2019, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likely-effect-of-mass-shootings-on-the-2020-elections/839614/7 "2019-09-03T14:20:38Z")
I can’t see how mass shootings could have any effect but to push the election left. The anti-gun argument is simple, straightforward, and makes immediate “sense”: \*Guns are involved in shootings. Ban guns, and the shootings go away. \* (The logic may be flawed, but it’s as simple as it gets.) This will move a certain number of voters. The pro-gun argument, on the other hand, requires mental gymnastics: \*Guns are involved in shootings. But if a good guy has a gun, he can stop a bad guy with a gun. So our response to mass shootings should be to permit even \*\*\*more \*\*_gun ownership._ That is a much harder mental sales pitch to the electorate; it sounds contradictory. It doesn’t convince many. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2019, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likely-effect-of-mass-shootings-on-the-2020-elections/839614/8 "2019-09-03T14:36:32Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > I can’t see how mass shootings could have any effect but to push the election left. The anti-gun argument is simple, straightforward, and makes immediate “sense”: \*Guns are involved in shootings. Ban guns, and the shootings go away. \* (The logic may be flawed, but it’s as simple as it gets.) This will move a certain number of voters. > > The pro-gun argument, on the other hand, requires mental gymnastics: \*Guns are involved in shootings. But if a good guy has a gun, he can stop a bad guy with a gun. So our response to mass shootings should be to permit even \*\*\*more \*\*_gun ownership._ That is a much harder mental sales pitch to the electorate; it sounds contradictory. It doesn’t convince many. Fewer guns, few shooting does sound almost axiomatic and is supportable by pointing at, gasp, other countries. The only real outlier would be Switzerland, which has fairly widespread gun ownership, but not as many shootings as that would suggest likely. ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2019, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likely-effect-of-mass-shootings-on-the-2020-elections/839614/9 "2019-09-03T15:04:38Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > I can’t see how mass shootings could have any effect but to push the election left. The anti-gun argument is simple, straightforward, and makes immediate “sense”: \*Guns are involved in shootings. Ban guns, and the shootings go away. \* (The logic may be flawed, but it’s as simple as it gets.) This will move a certain number of voters. > > The pro-gun argument, on the other hand, requires mental gymnastics: \*Guns are involved in shootings. But if a good guy has a gun, he can stop a bad guy with a gun. So our response to mass shootings should be to permit even \*\*\*more \*\*_gun ownership._ That is a much harder mental sales pitch to the electorate; it sounds contradictory. It doesn’t convince many. That could, without too much work, be turned around. The convoluted anti-gun argument: Banning guns will only take guns away from good guys, bad guys will always find a way to get guns, but less guns overall still makes it harder for bad guys to get guns. Look at all the other wealthy nations around the world and have, more or less banned guns and the amount of death by guns they have is nearly insignificant compared to ours. Perhaps we should look more deeply into why that’s working and implement some of their practices here. The simple pro-gun argument: I need a gun to protect myself. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2019, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likely-effect-of-mass-shootings-on-the-2020-elections/839614/10 "2019-09-03T15:39:40Z")
And what if Trump proposes, and McConnell agrees to go along with, a couple of new laws that address the minor, low hanging fruit on the gun control tree? Expand background checks a little, ban obscenely large magazines, close a gun show loophole? The House would have to approve or be seen as utter hypocrites. End result: very few single-issue gun rights voters get turned off, but lots of undecideds see Trump and the GOP “doing something” to stop mass shootings. It seems like a slam-dunk for Trump, but would GOP congresspeople really get primaried for supporting such trivial legislation? ---
**Author:** ![Hermitian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hermitian/32/470_2.png) [@Hermitian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hermitian)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2019, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likely-effect-of-mass-shootings-on-the-2020-elections/839614/11 "2019-09-03T15:41:33Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I doubt it will have any significant effect. I think that sadly, mass shootings have become background noise to Americans, broadly speaking. This. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2019, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likely-effect-of-mass-shootings-on-the-2020-elections/839614/12 "2019-09-03T18:43:08Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > “Republicans don’t care about lives” is the left-wing equivalent of “thoughts and prayers”. > > Regards, > Shodan I too dislike this generalization. Someone may simply be against the gun control group’s proposals because he believes they won’t be effective. If, though, such a person does indeed care about stopping people from dying due to guns, it would behoove him to offer his own proposals for how to do this. If he does not, then it is reasonable to conclude that he doesn’t care much about those lost lives. This conclusion is even more reasonable when it comes to politicians. If one of your duties as an elected official is to look out for the well-being of all citizens, and in the face of 35,000+ people dying because of guns every year, you off no proposals of your own, then this is the _only_ thing that is reasonable to conclude. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2019, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likely-effect-of-mass-shootings-on-the-2020-elections/839614/13 "2019-09-03T19:08:36Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I doubt it will have any significant effect. I think that sadly, mass shootings have become background noise to Americans, broadly speaking. I think you see broad _frustration_, not acceptance. That’s easily fixed in a campaign by a semi-capable candidate. > [@Shodan](#): > > “Republicans don’t care about lives” is the left-wing equivalent It might be, if it weren’t a strawman. > [@](#): > > It’s the expression of emotion, not policy. You know very well what policy proposals are under discussion, just like you know very well that their basis is a respect for basic morality and civilized society itself. You even know you’re always welcome to participate by offering constructive proposals of your own, with a similar basis. By dismissing fundamental morality as “emotion”, however, you’re implicitly claiming to be on the side of facts and reasoning and logic instead. I suggest that hasn’t been an effective approach for you, not because it isn’t well-received by the ignorant and emotional, but because your audience knows it isn’t based on what you claim it to be. > [@](#): > > And once policy becomes the center of discussion, it loses relevance. The reasons for a policy \*never \*become irrelevant to a discussion about it. :dubious: There is, however, no “discussion” if one side sticks to “Constitutional right! Gun grabbers! Slippery slope!” and other avoidance-tactic strawmen (speaking of emotionalism, btw), and is enabled by the contemptuous above-it-all disengagement of the both-sides-ists. A semi-capable (and unafraid) candidate can easily point all that out, too, since we all know it, and encourage the sane majority to vote to end the madness. It isn’t like the deplorables, clinging to their guns and their religion, are going to vote Dem by and large, anyway. ---
**Author:** ![not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/not_what_you_d_expect/32/3246_2.png) [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/not_what_you_d_expect)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2019, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likely-effect-of-mass-shootings-on-the-2020-elections/839614/14 "2019-09-03T19:29:46Z")
I’m seeing reports that Walmart is going to quit selling ammo for rifles. This could be big news? What do you guys think? ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2019, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likely-effect-of-mass-shootings-on-the-2020-elections/839614/15 "2019-09-03T19:41:10Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I doubt it will have any significant effect. I think that sadly, mass shootings have become background noise to Americans, broadly speaking. And I find this just…pathetic. We’ve become apathetic, and pathetic at the same time. Leader of the free world my ass. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2019, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likely-effect-of-mass-shootings-on-the-2020-elections/839614/16 "2019-09-03T19:46:36Z")
> [@Fiddle\_Peghead](#): > > I too dislike this generalization. Someone may simply be against the gun control group’s proposals because he believes they won’t be effective. If we truly proposed gun control at the federal level – like real gun control and not this Mickey Mouse shit of trying to ban bump stocks – we’d see a real decline in gun violence. > [@Fiddle\_Peghead](#): > > If, though, such a person does indeed care about stopping people from dying due to guns, it would behoove him to offer his own proposals for how to do this. A better idea is to start reading about how other developed countries regulate guns and how they don’t have the insanity we have here, and to stop believing in American exceptionalism. We’re exceptionally violent, overweight, under-insured, over-indebted, and ignorant, but other than that not that exceptional. Maybe the Anglo-American’s “America” is a fucked up place and we can, and need, to do better. There’s that. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2019, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likely-effect-of-mass-shootings-on-the-2020-elections/839614/17 "2019-09-03T20:03:58Z")
> [@Fiddle\_Peghead](#): > > I too dislike this generalization. Someone may simply be against the gun control group’s proposals because he believes they won’t be effective. If, though, such a person does indeed care about stopping people from dying due to guns, it would behoove him to offer his own proposals for how to do this. If he does not, then it is reasonable to conclude that he doesn’t care much about those lost lives. This conclusion is even more reasonable when it comes to politicians. If one of your duties as an elected official is to look out for the well-being of all citizens, and in the face of 35,000+ people dying because of guns every year, you off no proposals of your own, then this is the _only_ thing that is reasonable to conclude. Neither side is listening to anything the other side says. Mass shootings have not triggered much by way of new proposals. Nor are they likely to - these are rare enough to be anomalies. More background checks? The Odessa shooter failed one already. Enforce the existing laws more strictly? The gun control side won’t take that for an answer. Banning bump stocks? That didn’t seem to help. Banning hand guns, or banning semi-automatic weapons, are not new policies. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2019, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likely-effect-of-mass-shootings-on-the-2020-elections/839614/18 "2019-09-03T20:03:58Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > If we truly proposed gun control at the federal level – like real gun control and not this Mickey Mouse shit of trying to ban bump stocks – we’d see a real decline in gun violence. Absolutely. You can build a bump stock at home for under $10. Literally. We need real gun control. You know, getting rid of guns. But that is a discussion for another thread! > [@](#): > > A better idea is to start reading about how other developed countries regulate guns… This is not a better idea than mine. You merely added to it. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2019, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likely-effect-of-mass-shootings-on-the-2020-elections/839614/19 "2019-09-03T20:07:31Z")
Nm ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2019, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-likely-effect-of-mass-shootings-on-the-2020-elections/839614/20 "2019-09-03T20:11:16Z")
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