# The looming physician shortage

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-looming-physician-shortage/787786>\
**Category:** Great Debates\
**Created:** [May 31, 2017, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-looming-physician-shortage/787786 "2017-05-31T18:30:25Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 2

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**Author:** ![usedtobe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ec9cab/32.png) [@usedtobe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/usedtobe)\
**Post date:** [May 31, 2017, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-looming-physician-shortage/787786/21 "2017-05-31T22:26:41Z")

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Docs - care to link to (current this week\*) Diagnostic Codes?

Might give the folks an overview of the mess that is Insurance Company requirements.

And: for all those codes which have given birth to sub-codes (old: 10; new 10.1.21), how specific do you have to be? Can you just code “10” or do you need to add all the dots and numbers after it?  
Does this vary with payer? Does Blue Shield allow “10” but United Health require the maximum established sub-codes?

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**Author:** ![Doubticus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e56c9b/32.png) [@Doubticus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Doubticus)\
**Post date:** [May 31, 2017, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-looming-physician-shortage/787786/22 "2017-05-31T23:17:01Z")

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> [@Okrahoma](#):
>
> [http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/blame-obamacare-and-congress-for-the-coming-drought-of-doctors/article/2624432](http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/blame-obamacare-and-congress-for-the-coming-drought-of-doctors/article/2624432)
> 
> The vaunted “single payer” possible system will only accelerate this phenomenon.

If this were true then we should see a much greater rate of dissatisfaction among doctors in countries that have a single payer system. This doesn’t seem to be the case.

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**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\
**Post date:** [May 31, 2017, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-looming-physician-shortage/787786/23 "2017-05-31T23:30:01Z")

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> [@Doubticus](#):
>
> If this were true then we should see a much greater rate of dissatisfaction among doctors in countries that have a single payer system. This doesn’t seem to be the case.

In fairness, a greater number of doctors are indeed moving to the United States (as opposed to moving _away_ from the United States), in large part because they can make more money and probably pay lower taxes there. I wouldn’t automatically assume they were dissatisfied with their jobs in their home countries; they just decided to seek better opportunity, as they defined it.

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**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\
**Post date:** [May 31, 2017, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-looming-physician-shortage/787786/24 "2017-05-31T23:48:27Z")

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> [@Doubticus](#):
>
> If this were true then we should see a much greater rate of dissatisfaction among doctors in countries that have a single payer system. This doesn’t seem to be the case.

As I pointed out above, 19% of Canadian specialist physicians practice in the US.

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**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\
**Post date:** [May 31, 2017, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-looming-physician-shortage/787786/25 "2017-05-31T23:50:00Z")

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> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#):
>
> In fairness, a greater number of doctors are indeed moving to the United States (as opposed to moving _away_ from the United States), in large part because they can make more money and probably pay lower taxes there. I wouldn’t automatically assume they were dissatisfied with their jobs in their home countries; they just decided to seek better opportunity, as they defined it.

In many cases they also benefited from subsidized medical school tuition and don’t have the same level of debt that newly minted US medical practitioners have. I believe Canadian practitioners don’t even need to repeat their residency to qualify in the US.

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**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\
**Post date:** [May 31, 2017, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-looming-physician-shortage/787786/26 "2017-05-31T23:57:01Z")

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> [@Okrahoma](#):
>
> …  
> I’d like to see some stats on how many “single payer” countries’ doctors migrate to the US vs. how many US doctors migrate to the “single payer” countries.

What would that prove to you? Are you aware that Americans tend not to migate anywhere, in general?

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**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\
**Post date:** [June 1, 2017, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-looming-physician-shortage/787786/27 "2017-06-01T00:14:57Z")

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> [@Okrahoma](#):
>
> If an insurance company imposes too much regulation on you as a physician, you can stop your contract with them (and I have seen physicians do that).
> 
> If there is only one “payer”, and you object to them “breathing down your neck”, you’re SOL. And if you think the government will “breathe down their necks” less - I’ve got a bridge to sell you.

I love it when replies demonstrate that the poster has no clue about the issue.

Private insurance and fee for service physicisans exist side-by-side in many (probably all) single payer countries. If ten Monopoly dude with the monocle and the rich car happens to live in London, for example, he is perfectly free to buy private insurance and visit physicians who cater to the wealthy that want white-glove service.

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**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\
**Post date:** [June 1, 2017, 1:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-looming-physician-shortage/787786/28 "2017-06-01T01:03:33Z")

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First another “me too” to “docs who would be fine with single payor done right.”

But more a call of **bullshit to the premise of the op and its linked article**. The newspaper article reads [the actual survey](http://www.physiciansfoundation.org/uploads/default/Biennial_Physician_Survey_2016.pdf) very selectively.

> [@](#):
>
> • 72% indicate that external factors such as third party authorizations significantly detract from the quality of care they are able to provide. …

So yeah, single payor would help with that.

In 2012 a total of 31.8% of physicians were very or somewhat optimistic/positive about the current state of the medical profession. In 2016 that number was 46.1%.

In 2012 a total of 22.6% of physicians were very or somewhat optimistic/positive about the future of the medical profession. In 2016 that number was 37.2%.

In 2012 66.5% said that if they had their careers to do over, they would choose to be a physician, that yes, medicine is still rewarding. That number increased to 71.7% in 2016.

From 2008 to 2016 the number saying that they’d recommend medicine as a career to their children or other young people went up from 40.2% to 50.8%.

So let’s be very clear: doctors whine, we always have, but as a group **we are whining less as the ACA became implemented than we were before.**

Also clear in the data: change is hard, stressful. Those with the best morale seem to be the newer guard, those not married to the way things were, who have grown up expecting medicine to be a team sport. Older docs and specialists are more often complaining that things are not as they used to be.

Meanwhile despite the numbers of whining old fart physicians medical school applications and enrollments both [continue to increase](http://www.modernhealthcare.com/article/20151022/NEWS/151029967).

> [@](#):
>
> Medical schools reported another round of record-breaking application and enrollment totals as college graduates continue to ignore the warnings of senior physicians who recommend that they seek a career in something besides medicine.
> 
> First-year student enrollment in U.S. medical schools increased 1.4% to 20,630 in 2015 from 20,343 last year, according to the Association of American Medical Colleges. The AAMC also reported a 6.2% increase in medical school applications to 52,550 this year from 49,480 in 2014.

The implementation of Obama’s healthcare reform has been associated with more physicians being optimistic about the current state of and the future of healthcare in America, more who say they’d pick the career again if they had to do it all over again, more who’d recommend the career to their kids or other young people, and more applying to become doctors.  
And count me with the majority who would say that I would certainly choose the same path if given the chance. Would I recommend it? That question requires a more nuanced response. It is a very big investment of debt and/or family funds and time. If my opinion was asked for I’d want to have a discussion about _why_ they are thinking about the career. If it is to make money there are ways for a smart young person to make more with less time/dollar investment. If it is to provide healthcare there are path to consider (like nurse practitioner and physician assistant) that can allow one to provide care with less investment as well. There are good reasons to make the investments in my book but I’d want to know what _they_ thought they were.

ETA - my eldest is in medical school. He really did not ask my opinion though …

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**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\
**Post date:** [June 1, 2017, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-looming-physician-shortage/787786/29 "2017-06-01T01:24:18Z")

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> [@FlikTheBlue](#):
>
> I can’t speak for all my colleagues, but as a physician I would personally prefer a universal health care system done correctly\* to what we have right now.

Which is a pointless comparison. It’s always easy to say “I’d support X _if it was done right_;” it’s the “_real_ communism, which has never been tried, is preferable to capitalism” line of argument.

The relevant question is whether you’d prefer UHC _given the way you expect it would actually be implemented_ compared to what we have now.

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**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\
**Post date:** [June 1, 2017, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-looming-physician-shortage/787786/30 "2017-06-01T01:41:29Z")

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> [@furt](#):
>
> … The relevant question is whether you’d prefer UHC _given the way you expect it would actually be implemented_ compared to what we have now.

As for myself, yes I would.

OTOH it is a bit of a trick question as I do not realistically see it as having any chance of being actually implemented in any form in any moderate term future.

I have more hopes for an expanded public option however.

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**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\
**Post date:** [June 1, 2017, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-looming-physician-shortage/787786/31 "2017-06-01T03:26:04Z")

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> [@furt](#):
>
> Which is a pointless comparison. It’s always easy to say “I’d support X _if it was done right_;” it’s the “_real_ communism, which has never been tried, is preferable to capitalism” line of argument.
> 
> The relevant question is whether you’d prefer UHC _given the way you expect it would actually be implemented_ compared to what we have now.

Sure I would. A lot of countries tried to make communism work and none of them succeeded. So it’s fair to say, based on empirical evidence, that communism doesn’t work in the real world.

But that’s not true about public health care systems. A lot of countries have tried to make those work and they’ve generally succeeded. Based on empirical evidence, public health care systems work in the real world. And there’s no reason to think one wouldn’t work in America.

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**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\
**Post date:** [June 1, 2017, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-looming-physician-shortage/787786/32 "2017-06-01T04:18:53Z")

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> [@Dewey\_Finn](#):
>
> There are a few doctors in the US doing that sort of thing; not accepting insurance at all in favor of only patients who can afford to pay directly for treatment. Some limit the number of patients to a relatively small amount (perhaps a few hundred or a thousand) and require an annual fee in addition to charges based on the number of visits.

This is called concierge medicine. I don’t know much more about it than that.

Around here, most insurance-free practices are psychiatrists, plastic surgeons who do cosmetic work only, and a few family practitioners, mostly the ones who have independent walk-in practices. There was one in my city for a while whose sign had his name on it, and underneath it, it said “Adults $50, Children $25”.

These doctors will usually be happy to give patients needed paperwork for insurance reimbursement.

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**Author:** ![tim314](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim314/32/3468_2.png) [@tim314](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tim314)\
**Post date:** [June 1, 2017, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-looming-physician-shortage/787786/33 "2017-06-01T05:34:27Z")

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> [@Okrahoma](#):
>
> As I pointed out above, 19% of Canadian specialist physicians practice in the US.

This doesn’t seem particularly surprising, given that the U.S. has a much larger population than Canada, and thus a much greater total demand for doctors. It doesn’t necessarily say anything about how happy they were with single payer, other than that giving it up to go where the patients are wasn’t a deal breaker for them. (And for all we know, maybe it _was_ a deal breaker for some of the remaining 81%.)

Personally I think that the U.S. can make a pretty compelling pitch to Canadian doctors even if they _do_ prefer single payer, namely “We have a similar culture to the one you’re used to, your skills are in high demand here, you’ll still be close enough to home that you can visit frequently, _and_ you don’t have to spend the winter months defending the Wall against a horde of ice zombies.”

To be clear, that was a Game of Thrones reference, not a Trump reference. Trump of course has no interest in building walls that keep out **white** walkers. And anyway, he doesn’t believe in climate change.

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**Author:** ![Grim\_Render](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a87d85/32.png) [@Grim\_Render](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grim_Render)\
**Post date:** [June 1, 2017, 9:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-looming-physician-shortage/787786/34 "2017-06-01T09:44:21Z")

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So, another article pointing out an area where the US system performs badly compared to single payer systems. And its not like the fact that the US system imposes a massive extra bureaucracy hasn’t been pointed out here before. Frequently.

Okrahoma, why do you think US physicians are so much more stressed than physicians in single payer countries? Why do you think it is the US, with its high remuneration for physicians, that has a looming shortage ?

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**Author:** ![Grim\_Render](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a87d85/32.png) [@Grim\_Render](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grim_Render)\
**Post date:** [June 1, 2017, 10:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-looming-physician-shortage/787786/35 "2017-06-01T10:11:23Z")

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Oh, on the subject of physicians expatriating and practicing in other countries:

The Anglosphere, and the US in particular, has a huge advantage. English is the world language, and the US/Hollywood cultural exports mean a lot of people outside the US soak up a basic familiarity with US culture. If I say drive-in, prom, high-school football teams, cheerleading etc, most people in the developed world have some idea what that means from US High School comedies, even if their own nations don’t have anything like it.

If you work in IT, or the oil industry, or maybe mining, you may well have English as your working language even in non-English speaking countries.

But dealing with patients is not one of those areas. If you are a GP in a non-English speaking country, a large fraction of your patients may be old, some may be confused and few will be fluent in English.

Basically, a physician leaving the US faces much higher barriers in terms of language  
and culture than someone coming the other way. And that is besides the pay issue.

So which countries are most popular for expat doctors? Well according to the OECD it is in order: Israel, New Zealand, Ireland, Australia, the UK, Switzerland, the USA, Sweden, Canada and Spain. [Cite](http://www.worldatlas.com/articles/countries-with-the-most-foreign-trained-doctors.html). (Originally from the OECD, but the article has a better table)

As we can see, English-language countries dominate. And despite massively higher pay and easier integration, the US does not compare well to other English-language countries in the popularity stakes.

I suppose it is possible that doctors are discouraged by the amount of bureaucracy, a known feature of the US system. [Cite](http://content.healthaffairs.org/content/33/9/1586.abstract).

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**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\
**Post date:** [June 1, 2017, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-looming-physician-shortage/787786/36 "2017-06-01T13:13:21Z")

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> [@Human\_Action](#):
>
> [This is from 2011, but…](http://content.healthaffairs.org/content/30/8/1443.full?keytype=ref&siteid=healthaff&ijkey=mQS3t4CreN%2F1Y)  
> We surveyed physicians and administrators in the province of Ontario, Canada, about time spent interacting with payers and compared the results with a national companion survey in the United States. We estimated physician practices in Ontario spent $22,205 per physician per year interacting with Canada’s single-payer agency—just 27 percent of the $82,975 per physician per year spent in the United States. US nursing staff, including medical assistants, spent 20.6 hours per physician per week interacting with health plans—nearly ten times that of their Ontario counterparts. If US physicians had administrative costs similar to those of Ontario physicians, the total savings would be approximately $27.6 billion per year. The results support the opinion shared by many US health care leaders interviewed for this study that interactions between physician practices and health plans could be performed much more efficiently.
> 
> [From 2012:](http://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/in-the-literature/2012/nov/survey-of-primary-care-doctors)
> 
> •In the U.S.—the only country in the survey without universal health coverage—59 percent of physicians said their patients often have trouble paying for care. Far fewer physicians in Norway (4%), the U.K. (13%), Switzerland (16%), Germany (21%), and Australia (25%) reported affordability was a concern for their patients.  
> •More than half (52%) of U.S. doctors said they or their staff spend too much time dealing with insurers’ restrictions on covered treatments or medications—by far the highest rate in the survey.  
> •U.S. physicians were the most negative about their country’s health system, with only 15 percent saying the system needs only minor change.
> 
> Y’know, it actually looks to me like those single-payer countries are better for the physicians, as well as their patients.

There was this guy Ludwig Von Mises who explained how government intervention into the market causes problems, which in turn are used to justify further interventions. Maybe you’ve heard of him.

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**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\
**Post date:** [June 1, 2017, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-looming-physician-shortage/787786/37 "2017-06-01T13:15:35Z")

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> [@Okrahoma](#):
>
> [http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/blame-obamacare-and-congress-for-the-coming-drought-of-doctors/article/2624432](http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/blame-obamacare-and-congress-for-the-coming-drought-of-doctors/article/2624432)
> 
> \*"A 2016 report from the Physicians Foundation found an alarming growth in burnout and dissatisfaction among practicing physicians — 47 percent of respondents in the survey indicated plans to “accelerate” their retirement and move into areas outside of clinical medicine.
> 
> The most common reason for leaving medicine included regulatory burdens and electronic health records. Nearly 63 percent indicated that they have negative feelings about the future of healthcare and only half of all physicians would actually recommend a career in medicine to their children. Many of my colleagues feel they have no voice and have no way to impact healthcare policy — even in their own institution.  
> …  
> A 2016 report from the Physicians Foundation found an alarming growth in burnout and dissatisfaction among practicing physicians — 47 percent of respondents in the survey indicated plans to “accelerate” their retirement and move into areas outside of clinical medicine.
> 
> The most common reason for leaving medicine included regulatory burdens and electronic health records. Nearly 63 percent indicated that they have negative feelings about the future of healthcare and only half of all physicians would actually recommend a career in medicine to their children. Many of my colleagues feel they have no voice and have no way to impact healthcare policy — even in their own institution."\*
> 
> I agree with this. I know a lot of physicians - family and friends (and their friends). Almost none would recommend to any kid to become a physician today, and a lot are considering retiring early.

Being a doctors isn’t a profitable as it used to be but I think doctors still have the highest average lifetime earnings of any profession. By a LOT.

So what are your doctor friends recommending to their kids? I know a shitload of Asian doctors, and many of them want their kids to take risks they couldn’t take because their parents were relatively poor. Many of them want their kids to be doctors. If none of your doctor friends want their kids to enter the highest paid profession in the country, what do they want their kids to do?

> [@](#):
>
> The vaunted “single payer” possible system will only accelerate this phenomenon.

> [@Okrahoma](#):
>
> If an insurance company imposes too much regulation on you as a physician, you can stop your contract with them (and I have seen physicians do that).
> 
> If there is only one “payer”, and you object to them “breathing down your neck”, you’re SOL. And if you think the government will “breathe down their necks” less - I’ve got a bridge to sell you.

You mean like medicare? I know several doctors that call themselves geriatric specialists so that they can deal with only medicare patients. Something close to 10% of a private practitioner’s fees go to dealing with insurance companies.

Single payer doesn’t necessarily man what you think it mean. Single payer is like public education. Just like you can start a private school, you can start a practice outside the single payer system and have people pay you in cash or you can only accept private insurance. single payer can mean that everyone has coverage through the national plan (and for most people, that is all the coverage they have and need)

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**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\
**Post date:** [June 1, 2017, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-looming-physician-shortage/787786/38 "2017-06-01T13:34:49Z")

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The number of physicians is determined by the number of medical school graduates, which is determined by the Association of American Medical Colleges, and the closely related AMA, granting accreditation to programs. Medical school is notoriously difficult to get into, and no doubt every year there are highly qualified applicants who would make fine physicians who do not make the cut. If doctors are so miserable, then they could work within their own guild to increase the number of doctors. Of course, increasing the supply might have the additional result of decreasing the demand and by extension the salary.

I’ve been hearing about the looming doctor shortage for years now, and never understand how nobody seems to bring up the fact the shortage is entirely manufactured.

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**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\
**Post date:** [June 1, 2017, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-looming-physician-shortage/787786/39 "2017-06-01T14:29:12Z")

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\*\*Damuri Ajashi \*\*, what you highlighted in the article is what bothers me the most - the _completely made up statement_ that there is “an alarming growth in burnout and dissatisfaction among practicing physicians” when the survey actually shows _decreasing_ rates of each.

I have not specifically recommended a career in medicine to my kids. They should do that which interests them and that allows them to feel like they are making a positive contribution to our world, so long as they make enough at it that they are not having to live in my house. The oldest several years out of college decided that would be medicine, went back and took the science classes he needed and is now in med school. Fine. The next is trying to build a career in urban agriculture. So far he makes very little at it but he has few needs. Fine. The next is graduating with a degree in geology … who knew that in college he’d discover a love for the subject? He’ll be employed. Fine. And my High Schooler? She has time yet. I am not advising for a career in medicine or against it. She knows I love what I do and that her mother loves her job as a therapist as well. She should find what she loves and make enough at it to support herself.

If however she tells me she is thinking about premed primarily because it assures her a comfortable income I would _strongly_ advise her to reconsider the choice.  
**Fiveyearlurker** , medical school enrollments and numbers graduating are consistently increasing year on year as are [residency spots](http://www.nrmp.org/press-release-results-of-2016-nrmp-main-residency-match-largest-on-record-as-match-continues-to-grow/) (which is felt to be the bottleneck more than medial schools).

> [@](#):
>
> … The 2016 Main Residency Match was the largest on record, encompassing 42,370 registered applicants and 30,750 positions. The number of United States allopathic medical school senior students grew by 221 to 18,668, and the number of available first-year (PGY-1) positions rose to 27,860, 567 more than last year. … Results of the Match are closely watched because they are predictive of future changes in physician manpower supply. Of the 27,860 first-year positions, 13,744 were in primary care specialties; of those, 13,484 (98.1%) were filled and 7,160 (52.1%) were filled by U.S. allopathic seniors. Since 2012, the number of primary care positions has grown by 2,512, a 22.4 percent increase. … 18,668 U.S. allopathic seniors registered for the Match, a 10.6 percent increase since 2012. Of those, 18,187 submitted program choices and 17,057 matched to first-year positions, achieving an overall match rate of 93.8 percent. The number of matched seniors, 125 more than last year, is an all-time high. … The number of students/graduates of U.S. osteopathic medical schools submitting program preferences increased to 2,982, an all-time, and they earned a record-high match rate of 80.3 percent. …

Is the pipeline increasing fast enough? Maybe not. But whatever your opinion of it it must also be noted that physicians are increasingly no longer alone in providing healthcare, we work with teams now, and many, including quite a few who are academically capable enough that they would have been very competitive medical school applicants, are choosing the N.P. or P.A. pathways. They will help fill the gap between supply and demand.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\
**Post date:** [June 1, 2017, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-looming-physician-shortage/787786/40 "2017-06-01T16:42:37Z")

</div>

Back to the OP regarding electronic records, I am not at all surprised that most doctors hate it. Everyone hates it when they have to stop doing things the way that had been doing them and learn a whole new system. That doesn’t mean that changing the system is a bad thing, or that once they learn to use it they won’t change their mind.

In the end Uniform electronic records are in the end going to be much better for everyone than the current system of massive rooms of paper files and whining faxs and misplaced catscans that we have lived with in the past.

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