# The Lost Mafia Forbidden Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 11, 2009, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lost-mafia-forbidden-thread/499486 "2009-06-11T20:37:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lost-mafia-forbidden-thread/499486/61 "2009-06-19T17:10:28Z")
[QUOTE=telconter] So, I don’t know about vigilantee philosophy in these online games but, assuming you have the option of refraining to kill, you really should in the early days (odds are vastly in favor of hitting a townie).. [/QUOTE] This is on my list of most aggravating reoccuring arguments. Of course the odds of killing townies is greater than scum. If it isn’t true you probably already lost. The odds of lynching a scum is more than lynching a townie too, but no one suggests town shouldn’t lynch (well at least it is rare). The key point is each scum is more important than each townie. So if say you have a 66% chance of taking out a townie, but each scum is worth on avg 3 times more than each townie the numbers say you should kill even if you are more likely to hit a townie. In a balanced game these two numbers should be about equal making a random death a net neutral. A vig kill has some advantages and disadvantaged compared to a lynch. The main ones are: Pros: Don’t need to justify arguments (useful when someone seems scummy but you can’t really explain it) No scum influence in target. No risk of forcing multiple claims. Cons: Subject to the whim of one individual. Doesn’t offer any vote analysis for future days. No opportunity for power roles to claim. To me the fact that the Vig is a purely town decided kill outweighs the negatives, particurally in a game with limited power roles. If I’m the Vig I’m killing every night, especially if a name claim is forced. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lost-mafia-forbidden-thread/499486/62 "2009-06-19T17:12:22Z")
I would like to know why a vig would hit either me or Nanook. I mean, srsly. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lost-mafia-forbidden-thread/499486/63 "2009-06-19T17:15:57Z")
> [@Tom\_Scud](#): > > BTW, question for the more experienced observers: was I over-the-top with my IF prosecution? In general, in what ways was I acting noobish that I should re-think for next time? Should I have mentioned my Chronos suspicions in my dying post? Absolutely not. Playing a townie, especially a vanilla townie, means being confused a lot. Sometimes you have to drag them, kicking and screaming, to your argument. If you don’t, scum will. After all they are sure of who they want lynched, while you only have an educated guess. ---
**Author:** ![Hoopy\_Frood](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hoopy_frood/32/8452_2.png) [@Hoopy\_Frood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hoopy_Frood)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lost-mafia-forbidden-thread/499486/64 "2009-06-19T17:38:20Z")
> [@USCDiver](#): > > Um, did he just soft claim a power role? Or did he get some sort of cryptic message about 'a vaguely protective feeling?" He’d better elaborate or he’ll be a good target for tonight’s kill. He’s too smart for that kind of slip though. Usually claiming you are being blocked is done anytime you are informed of it, since blockers are anti-town in the beginning of the game, regardless of alignment. Frequently vanillas will claim being blocked, because town should know if there’s a blocker out there who’s firing this early. Either the blocker is using his power badly, or is scum. In either case, town should know. ---
**Author:** ![Hoopy\_Frood](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hoopy_frood/32/8452_2.png) [@Hoopy\_Frood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hoopy_Frood)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lost-mafia-forbidden-thread/499486/65 "2009-06-19T17:46:12Z")
> [@Hawkeyeop](#): > > To me the fact that the Vig is a purely town decided kill outweighs the negatives, particurally in a game with limited power roles. If I’m the Vig I’m killing every night, especially if a name claim is forced. But when one isn’t, should you shoot blindly? I mean, are you really making the case that either Tom or Nanook were good night one targets? And, what if you aren’t a full out vig. What if you are a vig combo or a one-/two-shot type? You left that out as well. I don’t have problems with vigs not reigning themselves in when they have a solid suspicion on someone, but has there ever been a game where a vig who shot night one actually hit scum? And even if there has, I think if we look we’ll see that the ratio of scum to town is less than what shear odds would dictate. So a vig is more apt to hit town on conscious action than they would on [random.org](http://random.org). ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lost-mafia-forbidden-thread/499486/66 "2009-06-19T17:48:49Z")
Still though, Hoopy, can you say that the vig hit in this case was really that bad a thing? It got some really solid evidence out there that a name claim is probably still a good idea, and that it won’t out all the power roles. It may have not been intentional, but lots of death in the early game is usually a good thing in a closed setup. Town needs whatever information it can get. ---
**Author:** ![Hoopy\_Frood](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hoopy_frood/32/8452_2.png) [@Hoopy\_Frood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hoopy_Frood)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lost-mafia-forbidden-thread/499486/67 "2009-06-19T18:02:30Z")
> [@NAF1138](#): > > Still though, Hoopy, can you say that the vig hit in this case was really that bad a thing? It got some really solid evidence out there that a name claim is probably still a good idea, and that it won’t out all the power roles. It may have not been intentional, but lots of death in the early game is usually a good thing in a closed setup. Town needs whatever information it can get. I guess. Still, the target choice was horrible. I mean if you were going to take someone out, why not IF? (Yes, I know what IF is.) Whether town or scum, you give information to everyone else on what happened. That’s would have been a smart vig play, and a great choice for night 1. In fact, I would applaud a vig who would do that. But Tom and Nanook? ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lost-mafia-forbidden-thread/499486/68 "2009-06-19T18:33:45Z")
\*\*I need two subs. You must be completely unspoiled. \*\* ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lost-mafia-forbidden-thread/499486/69 "2009-06-19T18:35:54Z")
> [@Hoopy\_Frood](#): > > But when one isn’t, should you shoot blindly? I mean, are you really making the case that either Tom or Nanook were good night one targets? > > And, what if you aren’t a full out vig. What if you are a vig combo or a one-/two-shot type? You left that out as well. > > I don’t have problems with vigs not reigning themselves in when they have a solid suspicion on someone, but has there ever been a game where a vig who shot night one actually hit scum? And even if there has, I think if we look we’ll see that the ratio of scum to town is less than what shear odds would dictate. So a vig is more apt to hit town on conscious action than they would on [random.org](http://random.org). I wasn’t giving an instruction manuel on what vigs should do in every conceivable situation. I was mainly saying that there are more townies than scum so a vig shouldn’t kill a stupid argument. And I don’t mean to pick on Tel because this comes up every time there is a vig. I don’t know the success rate of vig’s Night one, but I would suspect it would be no worse than the lynch success rate on Day 1 and perhaps a bit better. I don’t understand your other point. Let’s say we have a mini game with 7 vanilla towns, a optional vig, and two vanilla scum. So according to JSexton’s formula (I don’t have it in front of me so I may be off on the vig) each side would be worth 9. 7 Vanilla Town =1 each Opt Vig =2 2 Scum =4.5 each If town voted completely random Day 1 than they would have a 70% at being -1, 10% chance of being -2 and 20% chance of being +4.5 -.7-.2+.9=0 So a random lynch is a net neutral. Let’s say for some reason town chooses not to lynch. The vig can either kill a player randomly or choose to remain idle. If they don’t kill the value is obviously zero. If they do kill they have a 77.77 chance of targetting a vanilla townie and a 22.22 of hitting scum. However, if the Vig hits a townie, assuming the scum chose randomly as well, there is a 12.5% that the scum chose the same target as the Vig. So (65.27%_-.1)+(12.5_0)+(22.22\*+4.5)=3.473 A random Vig kill would be a net positive for the town in this scenario even though there is a 7/9 chance the Vig targets a townies. In fact it would be a much stronger play for town than a random lynch. The number will vary by game, but I would suspect that this number would nearly always be positive for Night one. Plus, the Vig will never be voting randomly, but rather be choosing the player they are most suspicious of, which ideally would improve the odds even further. Now, of course there are other factors such as the ones I mentioned above and the opportunity costs you mentioned. Each situation should be analyzed based on its own merits. However, I don’t the default should be the vig shouldn’t kill unless they have a really good reason, but rather the vig should kill unless they have a very good reason not to. ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lost-mafia-forbidden-thread/499486/70 "2009-06-19T18:41:30Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > \*\*I need two subs. You must be completely unspoiled. \*\* Ah hell, if you don’t get two others by the end of the day, I’m game. ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lost-mafia-forbidden-thread/499486/71 "2009-06-19T18:48:42Z")
> [@Hoopy\_Frood](#): > > I guess. Still, the target choice was horrible. I mean if you were going to take someone out, why not IF? (Yes, I know what IF is.) Whether town or scum, you give information to everyone else on what happened. > > That’s would have been a smart vig play, and a great choice for night 1. In fact, I would applaud a vig who would do that. > > But Tom and Nanook? Oh sure. The choice of target was lacking. I am just saying it’s not always a horrible thing to have a vig who likes to shoot, and in this case it didn’t do a whole lot of harm. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lost-mafia-forbidden-thread/499486/72 "2009-06-19T18:49:31Z")
> [@USCDiver](#): > > Ah hell, if you don’t get two others by the end of the day, I’m game. OK. I’ll give others a shot first, but if no one contacts me, I’ll PM you your role in the morning. ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lost-mafia-forbidden-thread/499486/73 "2009-06-19T18:50:39Z")
I would love to sub in Mahaloth, but really I have my hands full at the moment and am about to go out of town for several days. But if you need a sub again next week sometime, let me know. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lost-mafia-forbidden-thread/499486/74 "2009-06-19T18:50:42Z")
There was someone who requested a sub slot, I dunno, around page 5 of the main thread. ---
**Author:** ![Ichini\_Sanshigo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/d9b06d/32.png) [@Ichini\_Sanshigo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ichini_Sanshigo)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lost-mafia-forbidden-thread/499486/75 "2009-06-19T18:58:25Z")
Ah, company in the graveyard! For what its worth, I’m thinking **Chronos** is scum as well. I’ll concede that voting for me for my anti-role claiming was kosher, but **Chronos** was the first to spin my reconsideration of **storyteller** ’s synopsis as scummy. And I disagree with his last post: I’m thinking scum probably killed **Nanook** precisely because he didn’t stand out (he’d be harder to Day-lynch), and the Vig (if there is one) killed **Tom Scud**. I’m tempted to ask for spoilers, but I think I’ll try to hold out for a couple more Days. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lost-mafia-forbidden-thread/499486/76 "2009-06-19T18:58:39Z")
> [@Tom\_Scud](#): > > There was someone who requested a sub slot, I dunno, around page 5 of the main thread. It was Scuba Ben, on page 4. (173 I think) ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lost-mafia-forbidden-thread/499486/77 "2009-06-19T19:10:09Z")
Random “has anyone ever done this” mafia question: has anyone ever had a Martyr as a town power role? Basically, someone who could force the scum to night-kill them instead of their preferred target? (I’d guess you’d have to make it unsaveable by a doctor, at least if it uses its power). ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lost-mafia-forbidden-thread/499486/78 "2009-06-19T19:16:51Z")
> [@Tom\_Scud](#): > > There was someone who requested a sub slot, I dunno, around page 5 of the main thread. Wasn’t that story? ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lost-mafia-forbidden-thread/499486/79 "2009-06-19T20:51:40Z")
\*\*I have both Paul and Bill replaced(ScubaBen and USCDiver) Thanks, guys. Anyone else want to join the sub list? It is kind of funny that a scuba and a diver just joined. :)\*\* ---
**Author:** ![NAF1138](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naf1138/32/3245_2.png) [@NAF1138](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NAF1138)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lost-mafia-forbidden-thread/499486/80 "2009-06-19T20:58:11Z")
> [@Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/615): > > I think that at this point, a name claim will, at best, provide a false sense of certainty. Let’s wait until it looks like we’re at lynch-or-lose. Please lynch Chronos. Please. You can’t say something that blatently scummy and be allowed to get away with it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lost-mafia-forbidden-thread/499486.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-lost-mafia-forbidden-thread/499486.md?page=5)