# The Major League Baseball Playoff and Predictions Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [October 3, 2007, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-major-league-baseball-playoff-and-predictions-thread/421334 "2007-10-03T02:08:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![rockle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/73ab20/32.png) [@rockle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rockle)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-major-league-baseball-playoff-and-predictions-thread/421334/201 "2007-10-11T17:30:44Z")
[QUOTE=Subterraneanus] You said, “… the Florida Marlins pretty much literally bought themselves _two_ pennants (1997 & 2003) …” That’s false. [/QUOTE] This may be semantics, but … you don’t necessarily have to pay the most to still buy something, you know? Mountain Dew is Mountain Dew whether I buy it at the fancy boutique grocery store or at the convenience store down the street with a coupon. But it isn’t like the Marlins spent years cultivating that first World Series team; less than half the 1996 roster was still on the team in 1997, and half of the players from the W.S. winning team were gone in 1998. Huizenga did nothing illegal or unethical (to this non-Marlins-fan, anyway), but it is what it is. I will say that it is damned impressive that three of the four remaining playoff teams are from the bottom half of the payroll distribution. Maybe it will encourage more owners to reconsider their business model. Not that it will affect the price of tickets, though. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-major-league-baseball-playoff-and-predictions-thread/421334/202 "2007-10-11T17:55:15Z")
[QUOTE=rockle] This may be semantics, but … you don’t necessarily have to pay the most to still buy something, you know? Mountain Dew is Mountain Dew whether I buy it at the fancy boutique grocery store or at the convenience store down the street with a coupon. [/QUOTE] Well, OK, but by that standard there’s probably not a team in the history of the sport who hasn’t “bought” the championship, right? Last year’s Cardinals signed or traded for Mark Mulder, Jim Edmonds, Aaron Miles, Scott Rolen, David Eckstein, Juan Encarnacion, Scott Spiezio, Ron Belliard, Preston Wilson… \ Jason Marquis, Cris Carpenter, Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver, Jason Isringhausen, Braden Looper, Jorge Sosa, and Josh Hancock. All of those players were “bought,” in the sense that the Cardinals paid money and in exchange, received their services. Even Albert Pujols, Anthony Reyes, Adam Wainwright, and Chris Duncan received money from the Cardinals. What World Series team since 1980 would you say did _not_ “buy” their championship? ---
**Author:** ![rockle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/73ab20/32.png) [@rockle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rockle)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-major-league-baseball-playoff-and-predictions-thread/421334/203 "2007-10-11T18:38:04Z")
[QUOTE=storyteller0910] What World Series team since 1980 would you say did _not_ “buy” their championship? [/QUOTE] Dunno. I’d have to go back and look into it. Maybe they _all_ have, _always_. I just remember feeling particularly “icky” about the Marlins in 1997. I certainly won’t say they didn’t _deserve_ their championship; obviously, Huizenga paid those guys that money for a reason, and clearly they were worth it. I can say that I would probably laugh at anyone who accused Cleveland, Colorado, or Arizona of “buying” the Series this year, though. Maybe they did, by my own standards, but then I admire their ability to get such a bargain. (I noticed you said “since 1980” – heh. The Phils are as guilty of this as anyone; they just don’t “buy” the right people, or spend their money right, or _something_. I mean, come _on_ – is Ryan Howard _really_ worth _only_ $100k more than Charlie Manuel? And is Jose Mesa _really_ worth $2.5M? [Correct answer to that second question: Hell _ **NO** _.]) ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-major-league-baseball-playoff-and-predictions-thread/421334/204 "2007-10-11T19:01:31Z")
The Indians are 23rd in payroll, the Rockies are 25th, and the Diamondbacks are 26th. Of course, the Red Sox are 2nd, at almost three times the Diamondbacks payroll. The Rockies have 17 of their 25 players homegrown, including all their best. The Diamondbacks have 14 of 25 players from their farm system. It can work, building a team this way, but the problem is keeping them together. Rockies fans are really worried that Matt Holliday will be gone after next season. His agent is Scott Boras, and Holliday is going to command A-Rod type dollars. ---
**Author:** ![pricciar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/f4b2a3/32.png) [@pricciar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pricciar)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-major-league-baseball-playoff-and-predictions-thread/421334/205 "2007-10-11T19:18:56Z")
I think the distasteful aspect of the 1997 Florida Marlins wasn’t the size of it’s payroll, but the immediate fire sale that took place after they won the world series. Of course, seeing that they won the series only 5 years later in hindsight maybe that wasn’t that big of a deal. But, at the time it was pretty despicable to most fans. Win a world series and then chop up your team and end up in last place. When they Phillies try to buy a World Series they sign Jose Mesa or Lance Parrish. I think they are better off renting one. pat ---
**Author:** ![rockle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/73ab20/32.png) [@rockle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rockle)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-major-league-baseball-playoff-and-predictions-thread/421334/206 "2007-10-11T19:30:24Z")
[QUOTE=Lamar Mundane] It can work, building a team this way, but the problem is keeping them together. Rockies fans are really worried that Matt Holliday will be gone after next season. His agent is Scott Boras, and Holliday is going to command A-Rod type dollars. [/QUOTE] That is the part that stinks the most – it would be great for a lot of teams if their Big Names would stay forever, play their entire careers with one team like Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken did – but if the owners are unwilling or unable to ante up, why _should_ someone like Holliday stay with the Rockies making $4.4M if somebody is willing to pay him $16M? (Because it makes me feel better, I blame Scott Boras for this, even though he did not cause this phenomenon. I don’t think.) **pricciar** – Please do not _get me started_. Jose freakin’ Mesa. I just got over Mitch freakin’ Williams, and then they bring back Jose freakin’ Mesa. It seems to me that Charlie Manuel is getting a nice cut from my therapist. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-major-league-baseball-playoff-and-predictions-thread/421334/207 "2007-10-11T19:42:57Z")
[QUOTE=rockle] That is the part that stinks the most – it would be great for a lot of teams if their Big Names would stay forever, play their entire careers with one team like Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken did – but if the owners are unwilling or unable to ante up, why _should_ someone like Holliday stay with the Rockies making $4.4M if somebody is willing to pay him $16M? (Because it makes me feel better, I blame Scott Boras for this, even though he did not cause this phenomenon. I don’t think.) [/QUOTE] It is hard for the Rockies to make this kind of commitment, because even if they draw 40,000 a game, that is small potatoes compared to the radio and TV contracts that each MLB team negotiates for themselves. The Yankees have a potential market of somewhere around 40 million viewers, while the Rockies - maybe 5 million? The economics of baseball are really screwed up, and it is going to get worse before it gets better. I don’t think there is any way for a Colorado or Kansas City or Milwaukee to make any money with a payroll of $150M. They might lose $50M. ---
**Author:** ![Amblydoper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/fbc32d/32.png) [@Amblydoper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Amblydoper)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-major-league-baseball-playoff-and-predictions-thread/421334/208 "2007-10-11T21:30:56Z")
[QUOTE=Lamar Mundane] Rockies fans are really worried that Matt Holliday will be gone after next season. His agent is Scott Boras, and Holliday is going to command A-Rod type dollars. [/QUOTE] This Rockies fan is not worried, because Holliday has made it pretty clear that he WANTS to stay in Colorado, at least for the moment. I think that is the case for most of the talent on the team. Todd Helton is not going anywhere… He stuck with a below average team for ten years because thats where he wanted to be. Tulowitzki hasn’t reached arbitration yet, nor have many of the other stars on this young team. Players like Atkins and Hawpe are a bit more developed, and might leave for a better contract, but I think they will give Colorado a chance to make a good deal first. If the Rockies had not made it this far into the playoffs, we would have seen a mass migration of talent out of Colorado. ---
**Author:** ![Subterraneanus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Subterraneanus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Subterraneanus)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2007, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-major-league-baseball-playoff-and-predictions-thread/421334/209 "2007-10-11T22:16:08Z")
[QUOTE=pricciar] I think the distasteful aspect of the 1997 Florida Marlins wasn’t the size of it’s payroll, but the immediate fire sale that took place after they won the world series. Of course, seeing that they won the series only 5 years later in hindsight maybe that wasn’t that big of a deal. But, at the time it was pretty despicable to most fans. Win a world series and then chop up your team and end up in last place. When they Phillies try to buy a World Series they sign Jose Mesa or Lance Parrish. I think they are better off renting one. pat [/QUOTE] Yes. Remember that as they made their run through the playoffs/WS everyone sang the praises of the organization, crediting their quick success to shrewd judgment and a willingness to take chances on players who had talent but who had faced various difficulties with other teams, e.g. Bonilla, Sheffield, Brown. They were also credited with having fielded a unique mix of veteran free agents, young talent (e.g. Counsell, Renteria), and a corps of talented Hispanic players. And, of course, the lovefest extended to include Leyland—who was hailed as a genius finally getting his due recognition. It was only when the owner cashed in immediately after the WS win that people began to criticize the team, as you described. ---
**Author:** ![zamboniracer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9a140/32.png) [@zamboniracer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zamboniracer)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2007, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-major-league-baseball-playoff-and-predictions-thread/421334/210 "2007-10-12T02:47:18Z")
[QUOTE=Subterraneanus] Yes. Remember that as (the '97 Marlins) made their run through the playoffs/WS everyone sang the praises of the organization, crediting their quick success to shrewd judgment and a willingness to take chances on players who had talent but who had faced various difficulties with other teams, e.g. Bonilla, Sheffield, Brown. [/QUOTE] Your recollection is different than mine. I remember it being common knowledge that the Marlins were going to be broken up whether they won the WS or not that year, as owner Wayne Hunzinga had made it clear he wasn’t making any money regardless of the team’s performance. The cloud of the Marlins impending breakup colored their postseason run. ---
**Author:** ![Amblydoper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/fbc32d/32.png) [@Amblydoper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Amblydoper)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2007, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-major-league-baseball-playoff-and-predictions-thread/421334/211 "2007-10-12T03:54:55Z")
Final: **Rockies 5** , D Backs 1 Pick up your trash, and go home, Arizona! ---
**Author:** ![bbs2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e495f1/32.png) [@bbs2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bbs2k)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2007, 7:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-major-league-baseball-playoff-and-predictions-thread/421334/212 "2007-10-12T07:56:19Z")
Aren’t they already playing in Arizona (home) right now? Anyways, wow. Colorado seems to be on quite the run. In the first round I picked against them even though I liked em’. And as far as the NLCS goes I thought Arizona was the better team all around, but The Rockies are just playing so hot right now. I also am picking the winner of the ALCS to win the World Series, which I hope will be Boston, but by the way Colorado has been playing that’s like betting on the guy standing on the traintracks. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2007, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-major-league-baseball-playoff-and-predictions-thread/421334/213 "2007-10-12T12:37:55Z")
[QUOTE=CoG888] Final: **Rockies 5** , D Backs 1 Pick up your trash, and go home, Arizona! [/QUOTE] Good start, now I need Cleveland to do the same tonight. ---
**Author:** ![fachverwirrt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/94ad74/32.png) [@fachverwirrt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fachverwirrt)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2007, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-major-league-baseball-playoff-and-predictions-thread/421334/214 "2007-10-12T13:41:21Z")
[QUOTE=What Exit?] > [@CoG888](#): > > Final: > Rockies 5, D Backs 1 > Pick up your trash, and go home, Arizona! Good start, now I need Cleveland to do the same tonight. [/QUOTE] Do what, beat Arizona or pick up their trash and go home? 😉 ---
**Author:** ![mhendo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mhendo/32/3159_2.png) [@mhendo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mhendo)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2007, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-major-league-baseball-playoff-and-predictions-thread/421334/215 "2007-10-12T14:26:31Z")
[QUOTE=bbs2k] And as far as the NLCS goes I thought Arizona was the better team all around, but The Rockies are just playing so hot right now. [/QUOTE] I don’t know about Arizona being the better team all around. In fact, i think **RickJay** got it right in the OP when he described them as “arguably the worst 90-win team in the history of baseball.” As he also pointed out, they conceded more runs than they scored. The team’s expected win-loss, based on runs scored and runs conceded, was 79-83, and the pythagorean formula actually placed them as only the 4th-best team _in their own division_. They went 32-20 (.615) in1-run games, a stat that is generally believed to indicate a certain amount of luck. I like the way that such a young team has done so well, and has a chance to win it all, but if i were betting my money based on 2007 performance, i’d pick the Rockies over the D-Backs almost every time. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2007, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-major-league-baseball-playoff-and-predictions-thread/421334/216 "2007-10-12T19:35:52Z")
[QUOTE=mhendo] I don’t know about Arizona being the better team all around. In fact, i think **RickJay** got it right in the OP when he described them as “arguably the worst 90-win team in the history of baseball.” As he also pointed out, they conceded more runs than they scored. The team’s expected win-loss, based on runs scored and runs conceded, was 79-83, and the pythagorean formula actually placed them as only the 4th-best team _in their own division_. They went 32-20 (.615) in1-run games, a stat that is generally believed to indicate a certain amount of luck. [/QUOTE] On top of that, they’re out Orlando Hudson, arguably their best player (A lot would pick Eric Byrnes, but Hudson’s got that slick glove and had the team’s best OBP.) So, actually, they’re an even weaker team than the statistics indicate. If they hadn’t had Hudson this year they wouldn’t have made the playoffs, so they sure aren’t going to be as good during the playoffs without him. Any team can win 4 out of 6 against any other, but Colorado’s a better bet going in, a much better bet with a lead, and if Arizona does come back and win they will be, easily, the luckiest pennant winners in major league history. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2007, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-major-league-baseball-playoff-and-predictions-thread/421334/217 "2007-10-13T01:53:14Z")
Stop farting around in Boston, damnit! Finish the game! The NLCS is on the same channel here, and I want to watch the Rockies! Go to fast-sim, or something. ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2007, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-major-league-baseball-playoff-and-predictions-thread/421334/218 "2007-10-13T03:55:01Z")
[QUOTE=Frank] Stop farting around in Boston, damnit! Finish the game! The NLCS is on the same channel here, and I want to watch the Rockies! Go to fast-sim, or something. [/QUOTE] Trust me, Boston fans are wishing that Gagne would finish up quicker as well. Or simply go home. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![bbs2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e495f1/32.png) [@bbs2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bbs2k)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2007, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-major-league-baseball-playoff-and-predictions-thread/421334/219 "2007-10-13T03:57:31Z")
[QUOTE=Telemark] Trust me, Boston fans are wishing that Gagne would finish up quicker as well. Or simply go home. 🙂 [/QUOTE] Oh dear God, I left my computer and they were winning 10-4 at the bottom of he ninth. I come back a few minutes later and the bases are loaded. I really don’t want to throw Gagne off the bus, and I trust Tito’s judgement, but time after time this guy does nothing but make me nervous. ---
**Author:** ![zamboniracer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9a140/32.png) [@zamboniracer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zamboniracer)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2007, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-major-league-baseball-playoff-and-predictions-thread/421334/220 "2007-10-13T04:10:39Z")
I’m apologize in advance, and I’m sorry, but I can’t get away from the fact that Arizona vs. Colorado sounds like a matchup for the Holiday Bowl, not the NLCS. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-major-league-baseball-playoff-and-predictions-thread/421334.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-major-league-baseball-playoff-and-predictions-thread/421334.md?page=12)