# The mandatory "Million Dollar Challenge is a fraud" thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 11, 2005, 6:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555 "2005-02-11T06:37:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Princhester](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3e96dc/32.png) [@Princhester](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Princhester)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2005, 12:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/181 "2005-02-15T12:41:05Z")
Having said that, Aeschines, let me say this. While you are IMHO utterly wrong in principle when you suggest that controlled testing cannot establish abilities that do not work all the time, reading that Beth Clarkson stuff is a real eye opener as to whether the JREF, with Kramer involved, could cope with such things. Kramer is a guy who: 1/ is the major contact point for a challenge that involves controlled testing of abilities 2/ thinks “level of confidence” in the context of statistical analysis is something to do with the state of mind of the test subject 3/ thinks that doing something “one in three” is necessarily “worse than chance” as if random chance causes everything in life to occur half the time. I think Kramer may have eventually understood point 3/ (when enough people explained it to him) but that a guy who could make such a mistake could be allowed within a mile of anything called “controlled testing” beggars belief. ---
**Author:** ![KidCharlemagne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed8c4c/32.png) [@KidCharlemagne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KidCharlemagne)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2005, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/182 "2005-02-15T12:53:51Z")
> [@Princhester](#): > > So what exactly is your point then? You are not saying the test is unfair (or indeed fair), you say. You’re just commenting on … what? I’m saying that the test is poorly designed. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2005, 12:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/183 "2005-02-15T12:56:09Z")
> [@KidCharlemagne](#): > > I’m saying that the test is poorly designed. 1. In what way? 2. Can you _please_ give us an example of what you consider to be a properly designed test? ---
**Author:** ![KidCharlemagne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed8c4c/32.png) [@KidCharlemagne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KidCharlemagne)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2005, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/184 "2005-02-15T13:58:50Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > 1. In what way? > 2. Can you _please_ give us an example of what you consider to be a properly designed test? I’ve already done so in a previous post. I can’t speak definitively on the statistical significance of 6 trials but I think my other point is definitely valid. That is, the extent to which the “healer” believes in the efficacy of the “treatment” would likely be communicated nonverbally to the “patient” thus giving a potentially greater placebo effect. Just because I think the test is poorly designed doesn’t mean I think it favors Randi. ---
**Author:** ![KidCharlemagne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed8c4c/32.png) [@KidCharlemagne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KidCharlemagne)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2005, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/185 "2005-02-15T14:16:00Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > 1. Can you _please_ give us an example of what you consider to be a properly designed test? Yes. Let’s take the healing one: In order to design the best possible experiment I’d need to know a few things. For example, does the healer need to have either visual or physical contact or both to treat the patient? Does the patient need visual contact with the healer? Does the patient even have to know he/she has been treated? Depending on the answer to these questions, the experimenter can avoid some potential problems of the placebo effect. What is the healer’s purported success rate with given illnesses? This will certainly effect the number of trials necessary to construct a legitimate sample. Does the healer have a specific mechanism by which he believes the patient is healed and if so, what implications does this have for experiment design? I don’t know that Randi et al hasn’t done the above, but it doesn’t seem like they ask enough questions to find out. ---
**Author:** ![MaxTheVool](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MaxTheVool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaxTheVool)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2005, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/186 "2005-02-15T18:31:13Z")
> [@KidCharlemagne](#): > > I’ve already done so in a previous post. I can’t speak definitively on the statistical significance of 6 trials but I think my other point is definitely valid. That is, the extent to which the “healer” believes in the efficacy of the “treatment” would likely be communicated nonverbally to the “patient” thus giving a potentially greater placebo effect. Just because I think the test is poorly designed doesn’t mean I think it favors Randi. But, who cares if it’s poorly designed, as long as it’s poorly designed, favoring the side that it ended up not supporting? If I design a test that is likely to give false positives, and it STILL gives a negative, that doesn’t hurt the negative. Unless you’re saying that it shows I’m too dumb to design a good test, whereas it might just be the case that it was easier to design the test that way, since I was so sure that it would give a negative result. Which, in fact, it did. ---
**Author:** ![Humanist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/71c47a/32.png) [@Humanist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Humanist)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2005, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/187 "2005-02-15T19:10:18Z")
From [this thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=302145&page=1&pp=50): > [@alterego](#): > > No one is forcing [Randi] to approve any conditions. Correct. I fail to see what relevance this has, though. Scientifiic prizes in most disciplines are set with clear conditions in mind. In the field of pseudoscience, though, where any wild claim is possible, conditions have to be worked out on a per-case basis. They may have a generic test for common claims that they trot out, but there’s no way there can be a precondition in place for every single one of the claims the JREF has to sift through. This is as oppozed to, say, the X Prize which was set with a clear condition in mind. ---
**Author:** ![Peter\_Morris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peter_morris/32/359_2.png) [@Peter\_Morris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peter_Morris)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2005, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/188 "2005-02-15T19:17:01Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Peter, you keep repeating he had “one day to accept the challenge” > when we have documented evidence that > > A) He had FOUR days, not one, and > B) He claimed, repeatedly, that he was ready for testing “anytime,” and > C) He offered no alternative dates, and in fact has done absolutely nothing to help make the test happen. > > Now you’re claiming Randi asking him to provide a receiver was unreasonable, despite the stupefyingly obvious fact that THE ONLY WAY THE TEST CAN BE RUN FAIRLY IS FOR CAREY TO PROVIDE THE RECEIVER. > > You’re going to just accuse Randi of cheating no matter what, even if it means you > > have to claim things that are not true. We get it; you hate him. Sigh. There are a phenominal number of lies in that paragraph. 1. I have not “kept repeating” anything of the sort. I have said it ONCE so far. 2. He was given an ultimatum - reply in ONE day, not four. 3. Maybe he did say he was ready “anytime” but obviously he needs sufficient notice. 4. “_He offered no alternative dates_,” - a lie, plain and simple. He offered to do it after Christmas. 5. "_Now you’re claiming Randi asking him to provide a receiver was unreasonable_, " Another lie, I said no such thing. The unreasonable thing was that Randi & co simply dictated the conditions of the test to him, and refused to negotiate on any part of it. They would not negotiate the location, they ordered it. They would not negotiate the time, they ordered it. They would not negotiate the details of the test, they ordered it. I’ve been saying for years that Randi’s tests are unfair. Randi’s supporters only answer to that is ‘but every test is negotiated, so it must be fair’ Patently, your only excuse is a lie. 1. "You’re going to just accuse Randi of cheating no matter what, even if it means you have to claim things that are not true. " Rather than accuse him of “cheating” I’ll just accuse him of not knowing how to conduct a test. The problem is that he treally doesn’t know any better. As for the rest, YOU are the one making things up. And I don’t “hate” him, I just see that the test is worthless. I hate the fact that he has deceived many people that he is compitent to perform a test. ---
**Author:** ![Peter\_Morris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peter_morris/32/359_2.png) [@Peter\_Morris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peter_Morris)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2005, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/189 "2005-02-15T19:19:41Z")
> [@Princhester](#): > > The significance being? That I don’t need precognitive powers to see the future, or telepathy to read your mind. ---
**Author:** ![Peter\_Morris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peter_morris/32/359_2.png) [@Peter\_Morris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peter_Morris)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2005, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/190 "2005-02-15T20:26:44Z")
> [@Princhester](#): > > My opinion of the JREF, and Kramer in particular, is hardening. Kramer specifically doesn’t got what it takes to do his job efficiently. He’s a hothead, and he gives people like Peter far, far too much ammunition by the immature and ultracombative approach he takes. Ammuntion? You don’t seem to understand. Randi & co have been doing that same sort of thing for years. The opinion you now have, I formed the first time I ever saw Randi in action. And he just gets worse and worse. > [@](#): > > There is no real evidence that JREF are much into negotiating protocols. Supporters of the JREF would do well to go over to the JREF boards and read through the challenges that have been written up by Kramer, and you will see that usually JREF just propose a protocol and that’s that. agreed. > [@](#): > > The protocol will usually be entirely fair, as far as it goes. JREF will not muck about much with indulging weirdass requirements however. Here I disagree. The tests Randi proposes are frequently problematic. Consider the Paul Carey example. The protocol designed by Randi is that Carey must transmit a message such as “THE SKY IS BLUER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY” and the receiver must note it down. Any deviation, however tiny, Randi marks him wrong. Receive "THE SKY’S BLUER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY " it’s a wrong answer. Receive “THE SKY IS BLUER THIS DAY THAN YESTERDAY” and its a wrong answer. He has to transmit 5 messages. He is permitted one wrong answer in the whole test. Two errors (however small) and he fails the whole test. Get every one of them exactly right, but in the wrong order, he fails the test. I don’t brelieve Paul Carey has telepathic powers. But if he does, there is no way on Earth he would pass that test. The test is way too difficult. It is simply not a fair test of his ability. I frequently see similar problems in all Randi’s tests. And Randi is deeply in love with his own test designs, and unwilling to budge a millimetre. > [@](#): > > I don’t see any fundamental problems with the challenge based on that episode. I do see evidence of the fairly unprofessional way the challenge is run. Exactly. I don’t have a problem with the the challenge, in principle. It’s just that Randi is entirely the wrong man to run it. He doesn’t act in a professional manner, and he just doesn’t have the knowledge required. ---
**Author:** ![Peter\_Morris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peter_morris/32/359_2.png) [@Peter\_Morris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peter_Morris)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2005, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/191 "2005-02-15T21:04:52Z")
> [@Mr. Miskatonic](#): > > You think so? Honestly, I would be seriously ticked off if I heard that “The Challenge was won by an anonymous person”. That has ‘scam’ written all over it. Just to remind you of what I said, \*\* “He could have respected her anonymity during the discussions, at least, only publishing it when she actually took the test.” \*\* You see, I’m sure it’s right to publish her name if she actually proceeds to testing. But to publish her name while negotiating the protocol, repeatedly calling her ‘deluded’ and similar insults, subjecting her to public humiliation, that’s really low. ---
**Author:** ![Peter\_Morris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peter_morris/32/359_2.png) [@Peter\_Morris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peter_Morris)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2005, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/192 "2005-02-15T21:07:51Z")
> [@Peter Morris](#): > > Sigh. There are a phenominal number of lies in that paragraph. > > 1. I have not “kept repeating” anything of the sort. I have said it ONCE so far. :smack: actually, twice. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Miskatonic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr.miskatonic/32/310_2.png) [@Mr.Miskatonic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Miskatonic)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2005, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/193 "2005-02-15T22:02:50Z")
> [@Peter Morris](#): > > Sigh. There are a phenominal number of lies in that paragraph. > > 1. I have not “kept repeating” anything of the sort. I have said it ONCE so far. That you have corrected yourself on the number of times you said this does not make it any less wrong. > [@](#): > > 1. He was given an ultimatum - reply in ONE day, not four. He was given this ultimatim after he cancelled the date some days before. By your own link a lot of work had gone into making this date, and he just dismissed it casually. That he was given this last chance (the ultimatim) is a lot more than he deserved. > [@](#): > > 1. Maybe he did say he was ready “anytime” but obviously he needs sufficient notice. He had plenty of notice. Your link makes that apparent. > [@](#): > > 1. “_He offered no alternative dates_,” - a lie, plain and simple. He offered to do it after Christmas. That’s not a date. That’s barely a suggestion. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Miskatonic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr.miskatonic/32/310_2.png) [@Mr.Miskatonic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Miskatonic)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2005, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/194 "2005-02-15T22:16:30Z")
> [@Peter Morris](#): > > SAs for the rest, YOU are the one making things up. > > And I don’t “hate” him, Then why do you pursue him on [things that have no bearing on the challenge?](http://www.talkaboutabook.com/group/alt.books.isaac-asimov/messages/31039.html) ---
**Author:** ![Peter\_Morris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peter_morris/32/359_2.png) [@Peter\_Morris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peter_Morris)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2005, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/195 "2005-02-15T22:36:22Z")
> [@Mr. Miskatonic](#): > > He was given this ultimatim after he cancelled the date some days before. He didn’t “cancel” because the date had never been booked. > [@](#): > > By your own link a lot of work had gone into making this date, and he just dismissed it casually. Randi & co discussed a date that would suit them. Shame they didn’t think to include the applicant in their discussion. > [@](#): > > He had plenty of notice. Your link makes that apparent. That might make sense on Planet Kookbreaker. Here in then real world, it doesn’t. The fact is, on a few days notice he was told to drop everything and meet Randi’s demands. Best friend getting married that day, and your the best man? tough luck. Randi is more important. Going on holiday, and you will be out of the country that day? tough luck. Abandon your plans, arrange your affairs around Randi. Busy at work, major deadline to beat? Randi is more important. Drop everything at a moment’s notice, arrage your life around us. Disobey our orders, and we declare ourselves the winner, like we always do. ---
**Author:** ![KidCharlemagne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed8c4c/32.png) [@KidCharlemagne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KidCharlemagne)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2005, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/196 "2005-02-16T00:04:32Z")
> [@MaxTheVool](#): > > But, who cares if it’s poorly designed, as long as it’s poorly designed, favoring the side that it ended up not supporting? > > If I design a test that is likely to give false positives, and it STILL gives a negative, that doesn’t hurt the negative. Unless you’re saying that it shows I’m too dumb to design a good test, whereas it might just be the case that it was easier to design the test that way, since I was so sure that it would give a negative result. Which, in fact, it did. Yes, my concern is the guy’s ability to design a proper experiment in general. Having said that, something I didn’t consider before is that it is possible that a non-believer could read the insincerity of a non-healer and boost his purported healing out of disdain for the subject matter. ---
**Author:** ![Princhester](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3e96dc/32.png) [@Princhester](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Princhester)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2005, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/197 "2005-02-16T01:01:36Z")
> [@Peter Morris](#): > > He didn’t “cancel” because the date had never been booked. How do you know? You’re just assuming that. > [@](#): > > The fact is, on a few days notice he was told to drop everything and meet Randi’s demands. > > Best friend getting married that day, and your the best man? tough luck. Randi is more important. > > Going on holiday, and you will be out of the country that day? tough luck. Abandon your plans, arrange your affairs around Randi. If I want to do something really badly (which Carey did right up till when he was going to be put on the spot) which involves other people and they suggest a date I can’t make, I say: “Sorry, can’t do that day. How about Tuesday? Or I’m free on Saturday. I can do any date next month. I’m free for the last two weeks of this month. Let’s get on with this.” As always, JREF’s always in the wrong, no matter what they do, and the applicant’s never in the wrong, no matter what they do. ---
**Author:** ![Princhester](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3e96dc/32.png) [@Princhester](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Princhester)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2005, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/198 "2005-02-16T01:06:07Z")
> [@Peter Morris](#): > > Here I disagree. The tests Randi proposes are frequently problematic. Consider the Paul Carey example. The protocol designed by Randi is that Carey must transmit a message such as “THE SKY IS BLUER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY” and the receiver must note it down. Any deviation, however tiny, Randi marks him wrong. Receive "THE SKY’S BLUER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY " it’s a wrong answer. Receive “THE SKY IS BLUER THIS DAY THAN YESTERDAY” and its a wrong answer. He has to transmit 5 messages. He is permitted one wrong answer in the whole test. Two errors (however small) and he fails the whole test. Get every one of them exactly right, but in the wrong order, he fails the test. > > I don’t brelieve Paul Carey has telepathic powers. But if he does, there is no way on Earth he would pass that test. The test is way too difficult. It is simply not a fair test of his ability. This is just a massive assumption on your part. Carey didn’t say “I can’t be that accurate”. He thought he could be. But of course Peter you know his powers better than him. As always, JREF are always in the wrong with you, even when they design a test that the applicant thinks he can pass, they are in the wrong because you, Peter Morris, think he can’t. Let me put it another way: you don’t even think Carey has telepathic powers. And yet you _know_ that the telepathic powers _that you don’t think he has_ aren’t good enough to pass the proposed test. How does that make sense to you? ---
**Author:** ![Princhester](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3e96dc/32.png) [@Princhester](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Princhester)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2005, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/199 "2005-02-16T01:10:11Z")
> [@Peter Morris](#): > > That I don’t need precognitive powers to see the future, or telepathy to read your mind. The significance being? ---
**Author:** ![KidCharlemagne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed8c4c/32.png) [@KidCharlemagne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KidCharlemagne)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2005, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/200 "2005-02-16T02:06:02Z")
I just finished reading the Beth Clarkson exchange with Kramer (and only that one) and have to agree that Kramer is not only a total idiot, but completely incapable of objectivity. First off, he assumes that “chance” must necessarily mean “\>50%.” He couldn’t quite get his head around the concept that something with a 1 in 10 chance of occurring doesn’t need a 50% success rate to prove valid. But worse yet was his statement that ’ if telekinesis is valid then it shouldn’t depend on feeling.’ So now he is theorizing about something he doesn’t believe in? He doesn’t know how it could work but somehow knows that it can’t be related to the state of mind of the testee? That is the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard. I am embarrassed to call myself a skeptic but am slowly learning not to label myself as such. Kramer’s comments remind me of an exchange I had on the SD with another typically obtuse hyper-“skeptic.” The thread was about the PEAR experiments at Princeton that attempted to test telekinesis. The experiment, IIRC, came up with some significant conclusions but later was found to be slightly flawed. In that experiment the object of telekinesis was electrons. Someone in the thread cited similar experiments conducted with photons as evidence that the results of the PEAR experiment were never reproduced. I mentioned that the tests weren’t similar because electrons have mass where photons do not and that this could conceivably be an important variable. He laughed at the ridiculousness of such a statement. Could he not imagine that mass **might** be an important factor in something where momentum is of obvious concern? Absolutely mind-boggling. To paraphrase Kramer in describing Kramer: "I can only imagine that his beliefs are completely blinding an otherwise intelligent person to reality. " Kramer strikes me as someone who is deathly afraid of the unknown and must therefore deny the unknown completely. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555.md?page=11)