# The mandatory "Million Dollar Challenge is a fraud" thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 11, 2005, 6:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555 "2005-02-11T06:37:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2005, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/41 "2005-02-11T22:07:48Z")
You dreamed about boot camp because you were on your way there. Onve you got there you subconsciously edited the memory of your dream to conform to reality (and how hard is it to visualize a miltary barracks anyway). you were writing with a marker and you expected to drop the cap so you did. A self-fulfilling prophecy. Color me unimpressed. We are not at an impasse, by the way. Paranormal phenomena remains solidly unproven. The burden is entirely on those who want to assert its existence. There is no burden for me to prove a negative. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2005, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/42 "2005-02-11T22:09:30Z")
> [@](#): > > Just because there’s no reliable test for something doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. It does if that “something” is a physical impossibility. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2005, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/43 "2005-02-11T22:12:47Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > Onve you got there you subconsciously edited the memory of your dream to conform to reality (and how hard is it to visualize a miltary barracks anyway). Sorry, no. Nothing edited, nothing added. Both the dream and reality were exactly alike, right down to what I was thinking. > [@](#): > > _you were writing with a marker and you expected to drop the cap so you did. A self-fulfilling prophecy._ What about the marker itself? I had never even heard of a marker that one had to pump in order to use, yet I dreamed about it. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2005, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/44 "2005-02-11T22:14:57Z")
> [@Lute Skywatcher](#): > > Randi expects people to perform their paranormal abilities on demand. IMHO, those who claim that they can perform on demand _are_ frauds and have no chance at passing the tests while those who make no such claim also have no chance at passing. The only one who can win is Randi himself. If there is someone who legitimately has paranormal abilities, why COULDN’T they do it on demand? By definition, an “ability” is something that allows you to perform something. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2005, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/45 "2005-02-11T22:18:51Z")
> [@Lute Skywatcher](#): > > Sorry, no. Nothing edited, nothing added. Both the dream and reality were exactly alike, right down to what I was thinking. How do you know? Did you burn the dream to a disc? Like I said, it was subconscious, It happens all the time. > [@](#): > > What about the marker itself? I had never even heard of a marker that one had to pump in order to use, yet I dreamed about it. You’d probably heard about it and forgotten…or maybe the pump part was part of the edit. Anyway, since there is no way to verify the precise content of your dream then your story has no scientific value. There are tones of stories like yours, people who say they dreamed something and then it came true. It’s always after the “fulfillment” they seem to report the details of the dream, though. ---
**Author:** ![gazpacho](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/6f9a4e/32.png) [@gazpacho](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gazpacho)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2005, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/46 "2005-02-11T22:22:47Z")
The pyscics on TV certainly seem to imply that they can do there thing on demand. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2005, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/47 "2005-02-11T22:33:59Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > If there is someone who legitimately has paranormal abilities, why COULDN’T they do it on demand? \* Darned if I know. Throughout history there have been reports of people who suddenly get an urge to not take a particluar flight or train or whatever and they avoid disaster. Where’d that urge come from? Or to use the lottery as an example again: how many people have won a lottery simply by guessing at the numbers? To my knowledge, only one person has ever managed to win more than one lottery in such a manner. Was he just extrodinarily lucky? > [@](#): > > _By definition, an “ability” is something that allows you to perform something._ Having an ability doesn’t always mean being able to use it. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2005, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/48 "2005-02-11T22:38:02Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > How do you know? Did you burn the dream to a disc? > > Like I said, it was subconscious Not a chance. > [@](#): > > _You’d probably heard about it and forgotten…or maybe the pump part was part of the edit._ Again, not a chance. You sure we’re not at an impasse? Looks like one to me. ---
**Author:** ![Contrapuntal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e274bd/32.png) [@Contrapuntal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Contrapuntal)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2005, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/49 "2005-02-11T22:38:31Z")
Well I had a hummer of a dream last night, but there is no way it could come true. There was this giant orange talking snake named Timmy that had four legs…no, kidding, I really dreamed that. But more to the point, dreaming about something that eventually happens is not necessarily proof of superantural power. People dream. Things happen. Sometimes the two coincide. A strong case could be made for precognition, I suppose, if the dream were mentioned to someone or written down before the “predicted” event, and a fair degree of specifity was involved. Was that the case with you, **Lute?** ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2005, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/50 "2005-02-11T22:40:29Z")
> [@gazpacho](#): > > The pyscics on TV certainly seem to imply that they can do there thing on demand. Exactly. ---
**Author:** ![Kaspar\_Hauser](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/b3f665/32.png) [@Kaspar\_Hauser](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kaspar_Hauser)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2005, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/51 "2005-02-11T22:41:32Z")
> [@Lute Skywatcher](#): > > Darned if I know. Throughout history there have been reports of people who suddenly get an urge to not take a particluar flight or train or whatever and they avoid disaster. Where’d that urge come from? I wonder how many times someone has had a strong, inexplicable urge to avoid getting on a plane, only to end up feeling like a dumbass when nothing bad happens except for a ruined vacation. For some reason I think those people are less likely to blab about their “visions.” ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2005, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/52 "2005-02-11T22:47:39Z")
> [@Contrapuntal](#): > > A strong case could be made for precognition, I suppose, if the dream were mentioned to someone or written down before the “predicted” event, and a fair degree of specifity was involved. Was that the case with you, **Lute?** I wish it was. I never thought anything about it until it occurred to me that, while looking for the top of that marker and only finding dust, I had another one of “those” dreams. I did write down one dream in case I ever heard about a young lady’s body being found in a park. ---
**Author:** ![DocCathode](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/doccathode/32/18773_2.png) [@DocCathode](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DocCathode)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2005, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/53 "2005-02-11T22:50:46Z")
**Lute** Unless you wrote a detailed account of your dream before the events in the new barracks, you can’t prove you’re right and **Diogenes** can’t prove you wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2005, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/54 "2005-02-11T22:53:44Z")
> [@DocCathode](#): > > Unless you wrote a detailed account of your dream before the events in the new barracks, you can’t prove you’re right and **Diogenes** can’t prove you wrong. Tell _him_ that. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2005, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/55 "2005-02-12T00:00:14Z")
> [@Lute Skywatcher](#): > > Darned if I know. Throughout history there have been reports of people who suddenly get an urge to not take a particluar flight or train or whatever and they avoid disaster. Where’d that urge come from? People who get on planes often get urges to not fly. For all I know, it happens to everyone. When they don’t crash, which is what usually happens, they forget about it. If they crash, they remember. It’s a very human trait called [selective thinking.](http://skepdic.com/selectiv.html) ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2005, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/56 "2005-02-12T00:14:20Z")
> [@Lute Skywatcher](#): > > Darned if I know. Throughout history there have been reports of people who suddenly get an urge to not take a particluar flight or train or whatever and they avoid disaster. Where’d that urge come from? This has been covered by others. People remember this stuff when something happens and forget it when it doesn’t. They also tend to retroactively exaggerate the intensity of the feeling later on. > [@](#): > > Or to use the lottery as an example again: how many people have won a lottery simply by guessing at the numbers? Isn’t that pretty much how _all_ winners do it? > [@](#): > > To my knowledge, only one person has ever managed to win more than one lottery in such a manner. What other manner is there? > [@](#): > > Was he just extrodinarily lucky? Yes, if it happened. > [@](#): > > Having an ability doesn’t always mean being able to use it. Um…actually I think that’s pretty much exactly what it means. If can’t use it, it’s not an ability. ---
**Author:** ![RaftPeople](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/6f9a4e/32.png) [@RaftPeople](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RaftPeople)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2005, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/57 "2005-02-12T00:21:36Z")
Mildly interesting story that I read in Readers Digest years ago: A man kept having a dream (for a week or two) that a plane was taking off and it rolled just after getting into the air and crashed in a fiery disaster. He called the airlines (United or American, don’t remember) and they had the call recorded at the time. But he didn’t know a flight number or date and time so they couldn’t do anything about it. Within a few days a plane did what he described although it rolled to the opposite side that he had predicted. I don’t think this proves anything. ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2005, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/58 "2005-02-12T00:31:07Z")
> [@Lute Skywatcher](#): > > Or to use the lottery as an example again: how many people have won a lottery simply by guessing at the numbers? Don’t tell me, let me guess…All of them? ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2005, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/59 "2005-02-12T01:36:01Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > Isn’t that pretty much how _all_ winners do it? > > What other manner is there? AFAIK, the majority either play the same numbers every time or choose different numbers based on a perceived “pattern”. > [@](#): > > _Um…actually I think that’s pretty much exactly what it means. If can’t use it, it’s not an ability._ Unless the ability is involuntary. ---
**Author:** ![MaxTheVool](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MaxTheVool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaxTheVool)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2005, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555/60 "2005-02-12T02:19:20Z")
> [@Lute Skywatcher](#): > > I think the JREF is a Catch-22. > > Randi expects people to perform their paranormal abilities on demand. IMHO, those who claim this ability _are_ frauds and have no chance at passing the tests while those who cannot perform on demand have also have no chance at passing. The only one who can win is Randi himself. It’s hardly a catch-22. Now, if we posit that paranormal powers do exist, but they ALWAYS exist only in a random fashion, then the JREF prize will never be able to detect them. But then, Randi wouldn’t claim that his prize is proving definitely that no such powers exist. That’s not a catch-22. There’s nothing circular or ironic or self-defeating going on. It’s just a test that’s unable to measure certain types of hypothetical phenomena. Also of note: Randi does not expect people to perform their abilities “on demand” in the sense of “OK, you must tell me what the outcome of this die roll will be RIGHT NOW or you lose. GO GO GO NOW NOW NOW!!!”. If someone claims to be able to predict the order a deck of cards will be shuffled into one time out of 1000, which is not very often, but still far greater than chance, then that ability can be tested (although it will take a long time and be boring). On the other hand, if your claim is that, once a year or so, you have a dream about future events in your own life, well, honestly, how do you EXPECT Randi to respond to that claim? It seems to me that he does precisely the correct thing, which is not attempt to test such a claim, as such a claim is untestable. As long as he’s not saying “Well, your claim doesn’t meet the criteria of my test, WHICH PROVES IT DOESN’T EXIST!!!”, you have no beef with him. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mandatory-million-dollar-challenge-is-a-fraud-thread/289555.md?page=4)