Something you see from some scientists, and it is a sad part of human nature, is that if one of their rivals* is asked to provide government guidance, they will become upset, and will start making press releases, and generally getting snitty, and contradicting advice given. You can usually read between the lines and recognise the jealousy in their pronouncements. Usually it is asking “why wasn’t this done?” “did you consider xxx(code for my research)” and generally trying to make a case for why they should have been the scientist who go the gig providing government guidance.
of course scientists have rivals. At the top end, rivalry for research grants.
You want strategies based on statistics? Look at our statistics. In a couple of weeks we will hopefully be dropping down to Alert Level 3 or maybe even Level 2. Our borders will be (effectively) closed for a while, but most of the country will be able to start getting back to some semblance of normality soon.
New Zealand of course has a lot of natural advantages that America doesn’t have. We are surrounded by water. We are at the arse-end of the world. You won’t be able to do exactly what it was we did here.
But the science is clear. If you are seeing massive out breaks then it means you’ve made the decision to lock-down much too late. The deadliest thing about Covid-19 is the incubation period. It gives you a false sense of security and when it hits you its then too late. The best thing you can do to fight this thing is to just stay home if you can, listen to genuine scientists, amplify their voices. Social distancing works. And the sooner everyone gets on the same page the better.
We’re doing much better than most of the industrialized countries and if you take out NYC we would be doing better than almost every other industrialized country.
When you consider we have far more international flights than any other country we have a surprisingly low number of deaths per million.
316.37 Spain
297.68 Andorra
292.23 Italy
193.28 Belgium
166.51 France
139.94 Sint Maarten
131.19 Netherlands
104.54 UK
103.41 Switzerland
73.49 Luxembourg
68.02 Sweden
51.73 Saint Martin
48.17 Bermuda
47.59 Ireland
47.54 Iran
46.01 Channel Islands
44.63 USA
37.64 Denmark
37.27 Portugal
30.31 Austria
28.04 Germany
My guess when the dust settles is that we will find out it’s best to fight the symptoms prophylactically among the elderly or people with per-existing conditions. People are dying from the symptoms which may take too long to manifest themselves.
I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make. I simply posted the numbers. We have one of the highest international flight miles of any other nation per capita. I would expect higher numbers than we’ve seen. if you considered NY as a separate nation it has a higher death per capita than Italy.
We might be able to look back and see why NYC was so much worse than the rest of the country even though the first deaths were on the west coast. I expected Chicago and LA to spike before NYC but that’s not what happened. I’d guess there was a greater flow of people from the affected areas of China to NY. When China extended their New Year holiday to keep people home they probably vacationed overseas to get away from it.
Yeah, I know, we get a hell of a lot of visitors. But that’s missing the point. Regardless of what the numbers are (and yes, there was no way to avoid getting hit hard), they could have been reduced, significantly IMHO, if we had prepared properly. You can argue that we are the most visited country in the world, and we’d inevitably get slammed by the virus, but you can’t argue that we were sufficiently prepared for it, especially considering we had one to two months of observation. We should have been bunkering in mid February, not mid-to-late March.
You wanted to shut down the country mid February when the first death was February 29th? I don’t think that’s realistic even in hindsight. The best you could expect would be a travel restriction and that was in place at the beginning of February.
I don’t think you can shut down until you at least suspect there are a non-trivial number in incubation. Most epidemic models I’ve seen have shown that the handling method for the virus that results in the least deaths is a “pumping” model where there are long periods of isolation punctuated by short bursts of slack. The reason being if you just lock down immediately, and for a long batch of time, the second lockdown is over you’re back to square one if you just go back to anything approaching normal since no immunity has developed and there’s bound to be at least a few inbound carriers somewhere even with relatively aggressive containment measures (that degree of security can’t be perfect at nation or esp global scale). So you have to loosen restrictions and let some infections happen for about a week, close everything up for 2-3 weeks and wait it out, and repeat. (Admittedly, I’m skeptical humans can do this from a behavioral point of view. I don’t know if as a group we’re really capable of sticking to this sort of pattern, and think we’d really quick say screw it either way and just stay inside or ignore the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, whatever stay at home out of mental frustration).
If you could do isolation for 18+ months straight until a vaccine or cure was devised I suppose that’d be perfectly ideal but I’m extremely doubtful that’s feasible.
As you mention, NZ in particular has some advantages where you can kind of just starve the virus out and go back to relative normalcy being an island, though. I don’t think most other countries could’ve done that. The closest mainland/larger countries could manage is aggressively targeted contact tracing like SK.
E: The isolation should have been started much earlier, of course, my point is just that from what I understand you have to let small numbers of infections happen and control them, you just can’t take a wait it out strat unless you’re confident you can wait until a cure/vaccine (and a “rip the bandaid off” solution is obviously the worst of them all).
The genome researchers now say most of the virus came into the US from Europe; the travel restriction on the Schengen Area came into place only on March 11, probably a month after the virus started circulating widely in New York.
Banquet Bear hasn’t proposed air dropping thousands of gallons of hand sanitizer on NYC followed by hundreds of paratroop doctors on mini-motorcycles. He has no serious plan that makes sense.
Repeat after me: “Incubation period. Asymptomatic transmission. Exponential increase.”
By the time of the first death from a known case there’s already community contagion. The cat is out of the barn. I recall a purported motto of epidemiologists: “If they say we over-reacted then we’ve done our job right.” C.f. the weights of prevention vs cure.
Of course this is a path to herd immunity via controlled infection, where the infection rate is managed with short bursts of slack. Currently I suspect there are a range of options being considered across the planet. But the mortality rate is going to make this a difficult option. For some this may be the best worse option.
WTF? NY is not a separate nation. Why don’t you break up Italy’s and Spain’s worst hit areas into separate nations as well, so you can get their numbers down. The US also has a much more spread out population than Italy and Spain, and most other Western countries, so you could argue that we should be doing much better than anywhere else. Social distancing is not that hard in Wyoming and Alaska compared to NYC, where people still have to go to work on the subway. Instead of separating NYC into another country, why don’t you applaud the heroes there, still going to their nursing, EMT, and food service jobs on the subway for little pay and at great personal risk?
Now that we know that NY’s cases came through Europe, do you want to change any of your analysis?
Hey, OP, are you coming back with those scientific, non-media cites or what? If not, maybe post a mea culpa and ask a moderator to close the thread down.