# the mess in Syria is about to get messier **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [January 30, 2018, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mess-in-syria-is-about-to-get-messier/807835 "2018-01-30T21:20:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2018, 11:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mess-in-syria-is-about-to-get-messier/807835/21 "2018-04-10T11:08:55Z")
Russian (and American) Strageic forces, especially ground based, silo ICBM’s go from cold start, to “missiles away!” in few minutes, so thats not much of a comfort. SLBM takes a bit longer, but “alert status” is meaningless for forces trained to launch at a moments notice. Re the A50, IIRC the Russians have started heavy investment in network centric warfare over the years, so the A-50 might be there by design to augment the ground based guys not necessarily due to the later being poor. What I am worried about is the Great Power’s allys (i.e Syria and Israel) doing something very stupid. I don’t think the Russians want a nuclear war, anywhere, TBH and frankly the price of oil will be the last thing on anyones mind if we get one. ---
**Author:** ![senoy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/dbc845/32.png) [@senoy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/senoy)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2018, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mess-in-syria-is-about-to-get-messier/807835/22 "2018-04-10T13:38:04Z")
The messiness isn’t what Turkey is going to do. It’s how Turkey is doing it. If it were Turkish troops going into Afrin, then you would assume that the Turkish state has some control over the situation. The problem is that it’s not Turkish troops, it’s proxies that they largely pulled together from various rebel groups. What makes it bad is that these proxies are largely from Islamist groups of varying extremism. Regardless though, their goals are not the same as the goals of Turkey. They see the Kurds as American and Assad allies and they are attacking them mainly to keep their supply lines from Turkey open and to use those supplies to wrest power from other Islamist groups in Idlib. The real danger though is the possibility that these groups decide to slip Turkish control. They’ve already had problems with these groups looting and religion policing. There’s a realization that Afrin is not their goal and they have much bigger plans. Turkey is playing with fire. Even if Turkey does manage to exert some control, there’s a worry as to what will happen to these people during the peace. These are well-armed, battle-hardened jihadists from dozens of different countries that right now claim to have no ambitions beyond Syrian borders, but if they perceive that they lost the peace, is that ambition going to be channeled constructively or are we looking at tens of thousands of guys with large amount of foreign contact that think the West are a bunch of kafir in league with Shaitan that screwed them and they need payback. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2018, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mess-in-syria-is-about-to-get-messier/807835/23 "2018-04-10T17:02:43Z")
The situation in Syria is so confusing and so complicated. Turkey and the U.S. are almost fighting each other! The big threat is that Russia-Syria-Iran really do constitute an “Axis of Evil” (in contrast to GWB’s “axis of evil” which was always stupid nonsense). The development of this threat is especially sad since in 2002 Iran, a relatively liberal and cosmopolitan country, _was begging to be America’s friend, but was rejected._ **But my question is about the timing of this latest chemical attack.** Trump tweets some gibberish about withdrawing from Syria and the very next day, a stupid atrocity forces the U.S. to react. Was this really a coincidence? There’s some strange game of poker being played out hidden from the public headlines. Who’s bluffing whom? What the hell is going on?? _ **How can this mess possibly have a happy ending???** _ ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2018, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mess-in-syria-is-about-to-get-messier/807835/24 "2018-04-10T17:06:13Z")
We could high-tail it the fuck out of there and leave them to their own war? ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2018, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mess-in-syria-is-about-to-get-messier/807835/25 "2018-04-10T17:39:22Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > The situation in Syria is so confusing and so complicated. Turkey and the U.S. are almost fighting each other! The big threat is that Russia-Syria-Iran really do constitute an “Axis of Evil” (in contrast to GWB’s “axis of evil” which was always stupid nonsense). The development of this threat is especially sad since in 2002 Iran, a relatively liberal and cosmopolitan country, _was begging to be America’s friend, but was rejected._ > > **But my question is about the timing of this latest chemical attack.** Trump tweets some gibberish about withdrawing from Syria and the very next day, a stupid atrocity forces the U.S. to react. Was this really a coincidence? There’s some strange game of poker being played out hidden from the public headlines. Who’s bluffing whom? What the hell is going on?? _ **How can this mess possibly have a happy ending???** _ That also struck me as suspicious which is why I was pondering this earlier. If I had a CT mindset I’d suspect that this time it actually might be some rebel group who has access to some WMD and has used them to try and prod the US and perhaps EU/NATO into action by making it look like another Assad chemical attack. What throws suspicion on this CT, however, was the almost knee jerk and immediate response from Russia saying there is no evidence of any chemical weapons usage in the region, which seems to directly contradict multiple sources saying that there is. What a muddled and fucked up mess this is. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2018, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mess-in-syria-is-about-to-get-messier/807835/26 "2018-04-10T18:28:08Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > T The development of this threat is especially sad since in 2002 Iran, a relatively liberal and cosmopolitan country, _was begging to be America’s friend, but was rejected._ I don’t know where the hell some people get that idea, but thats not true at all. I have been to Iran. I have family from there. Liberal & cosmopolitan are two words which don’t come to mind _at all_. Please don’t mistake Iranians in the West (an often highly educated and integrated group) with the country of today. > [@XT](#): > > That also struck me as suspicious which is why I was pondering this earlier. If I had a CT mindset I’d suspect that this time it actually might be some rebel group who has access to some WMD and has used them to try and prod the US and perhaps EU/NATO into action by making it look like another Assad chemical attack. What throws suspicion on this CT, however, was the almost knee jerk and immediate response from Russia saying there is no evidence of any chemical weapons usage in the region, which seems to directly contradict multiple sources saying that there is. > > What a muddled and fucked up mess this is. Well they knew about 0.5 seconds after it happened that Assad would be blamed for it. I agree, using chemical weapons for Assad a very stupid idea at this time. And frankly, the Syrians force suffered mass defections in the early years of the war and they actually lost control of large military bases, ammo dumps, and logistics hubs. Are we to believe that _no one_ from the chemical corps rebelled, and nothing from the vast pre war chemical arsenal ended up in rebel hands? ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2018, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mess-in-syria-is-about-to-get-messier/807835/27 "2018-04-10T18:42:55Z")
> [@Slash1972](#): > > We could high-tail it the fuck out of there and leave them to their own war? I’d like to do something to help the refugees and others who are displaced or harmed by the war, but other than that, sure, lets let other people fight over some patch of sand on the other side of the world. ---
**Author:** ![Marcus\_Flavius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a4c791/32.png) [@Marcus\_Flavius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marcus_Flavius)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2018, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mess-in-syria-is-about-to-get-messier/807835/28 "2018-04-10T19:43:57Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > I have a radical idea. > > The rebels could negotiate peace and end the killing. > > It makes no sense to continue fighting when Assad’s forces clearly have the upper hand. Assad wants to restore Syria and put it under his government. > > If they don’t care about their own lives. At least consider the civilians dying senselessly. > > The rebels wouldn’t stop until Aleppo was completely ruined. Civilians died for no reason. Now they are doing the same thing in another part of Syria. > > Assad will regain control of Syria eventually. Stop the killing now! Negotiate the best peace deal you can and end the killing. Why are you blaming the insurgents? They are not the ones responsible for this war, the regime is. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2018, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mess-in-syria-is-about-to-get-messier/807835/29 "2018-04-10T20:04:24Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > Assad will regain control of Syria eventually. Stop the killing now! Negotiate the best peace deal you can and end the killing. You really don’t know Syrian history if you think ending the war will stop the killing. As soon as the war stops, the Assad government will begin rounding up the rebels, their families, their friends, the people in the town they grew up in, and the people they met in the street that one time and kill all of them. They actually have a name for it in Syria; Hama rules, named after a Syrian town where the government had everyone killed back in 1982 because some people in that town had rebelled. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2018, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mess-in-syria-is-about-to-get-messier/807835/30 "2018-04-10T20:35:26Z")
An Israeli [analysis](https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5226013,00.html)of recent events: > [@](#): > > … > > If the strike was indeed carried out by Israel, it wasn’t just a military move but a diplomatic defiance of both Russia and the US: You can’t ignore Israel while devising different plans concerning Syria’s fate. If you fail to consider our interests, we’ll destroy any arrangement you make. > > The conference held in Ankara on April 4, which focused on dividing Syria into zones of influence between Turkey, Iran and Russia, apparently ended with real results, way beyond the public statements that were issued after the meeting. Israel is mainly concerned about the achievements scored by the Iranians, who likely received permission to continue their military, economic and diplomatic presence in Syria and influence the Syrian regime. The Russians sold us out in this conference. > > Three days later, in a phone call described by the Americans as “tense,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Donald Trump not to withdraw from Syria and to work to remove Iran from the Syrian arena, but Trump gave him the cold shoulder. The US president has already decided to end any involvement in Syria, and the only reason the move is being postponed for now is due to pressure from the American security establishment, mainly the Pentagon. > > … > > As far as Israel is concerned, pulling the American army out of Syria isn’t just a license for the Iranians to do as they please in the war-torn country, but also a loss of military abilities. The Americans have invested a lot of intelligence in Syria. Moreover, a US withdrawal from the Kurdish area in eastern Syria opens the door to an Iranian takeover of Syria’s major energy resources and the passways of Iranian equipment into Syria and Lebanon. Our great friend in Washington is getting us in deep trouble in Syria. (I know it’s not a great translation, but it’s from Yediot Acharonot, Israel’s leading newspaper. I recommend their reporting and analysis over the Jerusalem Post and Haaretz, which IMHO are both much too partisan to take seriously). ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2018, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mess-in-syria-is-about-to-get-messier/807835/31 "2018-04-10T20:58:14Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > An Israeli [analysis](https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5226013,00.html)of recent events: > > (I know it’s not a great translation, but it’s from Yediot Acharonot, Israel’s leading newspaper. I recommend their reporting and analysis over the Jerusalem Post and Haaretz, which IMHO are both much too partisan to take seriously). I guess Bebe’s ass kissing of the Orange Fucking Moron isn’t working out as well as he hoped. ---
**Author:** ![Marcus\_Flavius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a4c791/32.png) [@Marcus\_Flavius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marcus_Flavius)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2018, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mess-in-syria-is-about-to-get-messier/807835/32 "2018-04-10T21:32:55Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > You really don’t know Syrian history if you think ending the war will stop the killing. As soon as the war stops, the Assad government will begin rounding up the rebels, their families, their friends, the people in the town they grew up in, and the people they met in the street that one time and kill all of them. They actually have a name for it in Syria; Hama rules, named after a Syrian town where the government had everyone killed back in 1982 because some people in that town had rebelled. Exactly. The insurgents won’t surrender because they know that’ll basically be suicide for them. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2018, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mess-in-syria-is-about-to-get-messier/807835/33 "2018-04-10T21:51:36Z")
More Twitter “news”: > [@](#): > > [BREAKING: Russia just vetoed US resolution to create new expert body to determine responsibility for Syria chemical weapons attacks. Administration officials now believe there is nothing holding back @realDonaldTrump from ordering a military strike on Syria. #syria](https://twitter.com/DavidShuster/status/983793719269838848?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw) ---
**Author:** ![voltaire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voltaire/32/313_2.png) [@voltaire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/voltaire)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2018, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mess-in-syria-is-about-to-get-messier/807835/34 "2018-04-10T21:56:52Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > The situation in Syria is so confusing and so complicated. Turkey and the U.S. are almost fighting each other! The big threat is that Russia-Syria-Iran really do constitute an “Axis of Evil” (in contrast to GWB’s “axis of evil” which was always stupid nonsense). The development of this threat is especially sad since in 2002 Iran, a relatively liberal and cosmopolitan country, _was begging to be America’s friend, but was rejected._ > > **But my question is about the timing of this latest chemical attack.** Trump tweets some gibberish about withdrawing from Syria and the very next day, a stupid atrocity forces the U.S. to react. Was this really a coincidence? There’s some strange game of poker being played out hidden from the public headlines. Who’s bluffing whom? What the hell is going on?? _ **How can this mess possibly have a happy ending???** _ It’s hard to fathom, but it sure seems the chemical attack could have been more bait to lure in an attack by US/France/Israel/ so that they could test/show-off their new air defenses after the last time Israel was baited by a drone and exchanged some ordinance with Syria/Iran/Russia. And if the bait hadn’t been taken, they could posture about their air-defense deterrents and yet another meaningless red line. The Daily Beast has some good analysis of that: \*To all extents and purposes, the incident on Feb. 10 looked to have begun as an Iranian ‘[bait-and-trap’](http://www.mei.edu/content/article/monday-briefing-syrian-iranian-downing-israeli-fighter-jet) operation, in which an Iranian drone (a cloned copy of an American RQ-170 Reaper captured by Iran in December 2011) was dispatched from an aircraft hangar used by Iran’s IRGC within the T4 airbase. The drone was then flown at low altitude along the Jordanian border and toward the Israeli-held Golan Heights in an attempt to lure an Israeli response. As it crossed into Israeli airspace, the drone was promptly shot down by an Israeli AH-64 Apache helicopter and shortly thereafter, eight Israeli F-16s launched a series of strikes on the IRGC-dedicated section of T4. In what then looked like a “SAMbush,” multiple Syrian government air-defense systems activated near-simultaneously and fired a barrage of[27 surface-to-air missiles](https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5131594,00.html) at the Israeli aircraft, bringing one down. In the two hours that followed, the Israeli Air Force launched a substantial air response that struck four IRGC and eight Syrian government targets, reportedly including the principal “[command and control bunker](https://www.timesofisrael.com/minister-iran-will-need-time-to-digest-how-israel-hit-covert-military-sites/)” used to coordinate Syrian military operations nationwide.\* ---
**Author:** ![rbroome](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/838e76/32.png) [@rbroome](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rbroome)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2018, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mess-in-syria-is-about-to-get-messier/807835/35 "2018-04-10T22:05:07Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > An Israeli [analysis](https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5226013,00.html)of recent events: > > (I know it’s not a great translation, but it’s from Yediot Acharonot, Israel’s leading newspaper. I recommend their reporting and analysis over the Jerusalem Post and Haaretz, which IMHO are both much too partisan to take seriously). Thanks. Syria is an incredibly complicated place… ---
**Author:** ![voltaire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voltaire/32/313_2.png) [@voltaire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/voltaire)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2018, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mess-in-syria-is-about-to-get-messier/807835/36 "2018-04-10T22:05:28Z")
Ooops, forgot the link to the quote from DB, above: > **[The Israeli Airstrike on Syria Monday: A Message to Iran, Russia—and Trump](https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-israeli-airstrike-on-syria-monday-a-message-to-iran-russia-and-trump)** > > The days of ‘rolling back’ Iran in Syria are gone. Containment and deterrence may be all that is left. And the situation is too dangerous for Trump to kick down the road. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2018, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mess-in-syria-is-about-to-get-messier/807835/37 "2018-04-10T22:14:49Z")
I wonder how many “bait-and-trap” operations Syria / Russia / Iran can afford to run. The exchange rate seems to be: 1 F-16 for 1 drone, 27 SAMs, a command and control bunker, 14-40 casualties, and assorted damage to a major airbase. With a potential USA/France/England combined strike, it might be a good worse than that. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2018, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mess-in-syria-is-about-to-get-messier/807835/38 "2018-04-11T00:36:24Z")
“[Imminent announcement on Syria](https://twitter.com/joshdcaplan/status/983854803141971968/photo/1)” from U.S., per Josh Caplan on Twitter, citing Fox. Evidently there are gobs of aircraft in the area already, from a variety of nations, including the French and British. [USS Donald Cook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Donald_Cook), a Burke-class destroyer, is already in the area, and the IIRC, Truman CVN battle group is about to leave Norfolk to join the festivities. It’ll take, what, 5 days or so at maximum speed to get to the Eastern Med from Norfolk? God only knows how many and whose submarines are in the area. I don’t know if any Russian surface combatants are still in the area. In the words of [Nice Guy Eddie](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0105236/quotes?item=qt1112947), > [@](#): > > “It’s been quite a long time. A lot of jobs. There’s no need for this, man. Lets just put our guns down, and lets settle this with a fuckin’ conversation.” O.K.? Edit, 7 days, per [sea-distances.org](http://sea-distances.org). Where’s the group that Truman’s replacing? ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2018, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mess-in-syria-is-about-to-get-messier/807835/39 "2018-04-11T00:53:22Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > Where’s the group that Truman’s replacing? [The Western Pacific](https://www.stripes.com/news/truman-strike-group-departs-for-middle-east-europe-deployment-this-week-1.521207) for definitions of replacing that include “they left the area last month.” > [@](#): > > The Harry S. Truman will replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt strike group, which wrapped up its four-month deployment to the Middle East last month, and is operating in the Western Pacific. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2018, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mess-in-syria-is-about-to-get-messier/807835/40 "2018-04-11T01:01:58Z")
> [@DinoR](#): > > [The Western Pacific](https://www.stripes.com/news/truman-strike-group-departs-for-middle-east-europe-deployment-this-week-1.521207) for definitions of replacing that include “they left the area last month.” Ah, so nothing’s in the Eastern Med or Persian Gulf/Arabian Sea? That seems hard to believe, though the battle space in the Eastern Med is so small, I guess you could cover everything from either Al Udeid, Incirlik, bases in Cyprus, and Heraklion, etc… I’m sure I’m missing some too. I am hearing rumors that, if the U.S. chooses to use further military strikes at all, that such strikes will be more long-term than just a TLAM salvo or three. It is sounding like preparations are being made for more in-depth strikes, and maybe even overt ground troop action like the 82nd maybe getting mobilized. (We all know that various ODAs and the like are there, but they don’t count, I guess.) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mess-in-syria-is-about-to-get-messier/807835.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-mess-in-syria-is-about-to-get-messier/807835.md?page=3)