The Next 20 Years of Life on Earth: Runaway Global Heating.

How? You need agriculture to support enough people for a civilization; if the weather becomes unpredictable enough agriculture will be unworkable. That’s in fact a theory as to why agriculture didn’t arise much earlier; that the weather wasn’t predictable enough during the last glaciation to support it.

And the “sci fi worst case” is a runaway greenhouse leading to Earth becoming a second Venus, by the way; the end of civilization is a lot lower on the catastrophe scale.

The road…cannibalism…aghhhhh

Sure, you need agriculture for civilization. Check. However, the weather would have to become pretty frigging ‘unpredictable’ to preclude ANY agriculture anywhere. I mean, if needs be, a country like the US could always go hydroponic, right? Sure, it would cost a lot, and it wouldn’t produce enough food for everyone in the US, let alone for export…but it could be done Let’s not get carried away here.

Well, yeah…and I happen to agree with the theory too. However, we are kind of onto the secret now, ehe?

If we dumped every scrap of GHG on earth into the atmosphere I doubt we could achieve a second Venus. Now, once the Sun starts going TU in a couple billion years…yeah, gonna be a bit warm here abouts.

-XT

Ahhhh.

Sun tits. Massive, glowing, brilliant sun tits. That will make it all worthwhile :slight_smile:

Our species didn’t transition from Ice Age conditions to the current temperate climate?

I real this blah blah and all I can think of is “The Sky Is Falling, The Sky Is Falling”

I thought we died out during the transition from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age, myself.

It’s called snow which the planet seems to be getting a lot of right now.

3 years ago they said we would be getting more hurricanes. When it didn’t happen they said the hurricanes were going to get worse. Didn’t happen. What happened is that we had fewer hurricanes of lesser power.

We had the coolest summer ever in my lifetime this year. I’m 51. If this is the result of more Co2 than I invite Al Gore to buy a bigger private jet to spread the message.

See, that proves things are changing!!!

Okay, I will admit that I’m not very skilled at the working of the computer, so looking up James Lovelock and his gaia theory is something you’ll have to do on your own. I will point out that Lovelock is not overly depressed by any of this. He sees the possibility of the human race being reduced to few thousand breeding pairs living about the Arctic Circle as possibly a good thing for the planet. A long view kind of guy. He believe there are some positive short term effects that will happen. It’s an odd mix of horror show possibility with huge rays of hope.

I did, however, find this. I can cut and paste fairly well so here we go:

*From: Global warming: the final warning Published on Saturday, February 3, 2007 by the lndependent/UK by Steve Connor

According to yesterday’s UN report, the world will be a much hotter place by 2100. This will be the impact …

+2.4°: Coral reefs almost extinct*

*In North America, a new dust-bowl brings deserts to life in the high plains states, centered on Nebraska, but also wipes out agriculture and cattle ranching as sand dunes appear across five US states, from Texas in the south to Montana in the north.

Rising sea levels accelerate as the Greenland ice sheet tips into irreversible melt, submerging atoll nations and low-lying deltas. In Peru, disappearing Andean glaciers mean 10 million people face water shortages. Warming seas wipe out the Great Barrier Reef and make coral reefs virtually extinct throughout the tropics. Worldwide, a third of all species on the planet face extinction
*

This is already happening. We’re already seeing major damage to the coral reefs. We’re already seeing water shortages in some areas and water rising in others. This 2C rise has already been conceded as happening. This 2007 report, is already horribly out of date, with the effects of global heating hitting faster and harder than expected.

While I realize some people will be denying global warming even as waves break over their heads, it is worthy to note that insurance companies are taking it seriously. You know, those wild hippy liberal insurance companies. One of the biggest jokes in Florida is that state law requires you to buy to hurricane insurance. Through various pulls and tugs by lobbyist, hurricane insurance does not cover damage done by water or high wind. On top of that, major insurance companies like State Farm no longer insure houses in the Gulf States. They pulled out.

But how bad do thing have to get? How many times must a family go hungry before resentment turns to violence between the haves and the have-nots? How many governments collapse along with that 2.4 degree increase? How many wars break out between nations desperate and hungry and scared? The Pentagon is thinking about those questions right now. There’s a fairly current radio podcast from Canadian Broadcast Company featuring Gwynne Dyer’s Climate Wars. It’s in three parts, roughly an hour each part. While there is some more speculation in the podcast, it is not without hope. As Dyer mentions, once you have children, you have to have hope. (Anyway, check it out. Google Gwynne Dyer Climate Wars, very good show).

Here’s more from that 2007 report:
*
+4.4°: Melting ice caps displace millions

Rapidly-rising temperatures in the Arctic put Siberian permafrost in the melt zone, releasing vast quantities of methane and CO2. Global temperatures keep on rising rapidly in consequence. Melting ice-caps and sea level rises displace more than 100 million people, particularly in Bangladesh, the Nile Delta and Shanghai. Heatwaves and drought make much of the sub-tropics uninhabitable: large-scale migration even takes place within Europe, where deserts are growing in southern Spain, Italy and Greece. More than half of wild species are wiped out, in the worst mass extinction since the end of the dinosaurs. Agriculture collapses in Australia

+5.4°: Sea levels rise by five meters

The West Antarctic ice sheet breaks up, eventually adding another five meters to global sea levels. If these temperatures are sustained, the entire planet will become ice-free, and sea levels will be 70 meters higher than today. South Asian society collapses due to the disappearance of glaciers in the Himalayas, drying up the Indus river, while in east India and Bangladesh, monsoon floods threaten millions. Super-El Niños spark global weather chaos. Most of humanity begins to seek refuge away from higher temperatures closer to the poles. Tens of millions of refugees force their way into Scandanavia and the British Isles. World food supplies run out

+6.4°: Most of life is exterminated

Warming seas lead to the possible release of methane hydrates trapped in sub-oceanic sediments: methane fireballs tear across the sky, causing further warming. The oceans lose their oxygen and turn stagnant, releasing poisonous hydrogen sulphide gas and destroying the ozone layer. Deserts extend almost to the Arctic. “Hypercanes” (hurricanes of unimaginable ferocity) circumnavigate the globe, causing flash floods which strip the land of soil. Humanity reduced to a few survivors eking out a living in polar refuges. Most of life on Earth has been snuffed out, as temperatures rise higher than for hundreds of millions of years.*

Okay, someone mentioned that not being able to grow crops in the US means we could grow them in Canada. The problem with that is most of Canada’s soil is crappy for food growth. In Montana, they are currently leeching salts from the soil from over-irrigation (That’s mentioned in COLLAPSE by Jared Diamond)

The point to all this being is that the earth as a system is fragile and can break down. Mass extinctions have happened before, a current mass extinction is happening now, with wild life populations in rapid decline. Birds such as the Bob White are in decline do to habit loss.

Yeah, sure, that’s not ‘global warming’ but it’s all related. We destroy wet lands so a mall can be built so people can drive there to buy cheap crap made in China for us to consume.

In the OP I suggested that maybe a massive die out in the First World, as highly unlikely as that would be, would help the planet. Less Americans buying cheap crap made in China, less green house gases all around. This isn’t wishing for anyone’s death, just an observation made on CO2 emissions and their main sources.

Obviously, the people who will be hit hardest are in the Third World. Now, having seen how poorly this country handled Katrina, what happens if we have 3 or 4 Katrina events in a single season? What happens to the people of Bangladesh when they are forced to flee their low lying country? Does India welcome them with open arms or with machine guns and tanks?

As 9/11 taught us, we can’t ignore or laugh off the problems in the third world either. Do we close our boarders and kill all foreigners? Set up death camps for people who ‘aren’t pulling their weight’? The US has shown itself to be remarkably selfish and foolish in world affairs. Do we get smarter and kinder as the air gets hotter?

The 6C rise is expected by 2100, at current rates of CO2 emissions. So we hit a 3C rise by 2050? Sooner? Later? We barely understand the weather now, but we’re willing to pump more and more CO2 into it without expecting anything to happen.

All in all, I prefer zombie uprisings. An attack of the living dead is much more fun than the slow burn of the planet. And part of the problem is that one is required to think in terms of the next 20 years when most of us have trouble figuring out what we want for lunch on any given day.

I’m of the belief that what is needed is a massive Monkey Wrench Campaign against the oil and coal companies. (read The Monkey Wrench Gang by Edward Abbey for more info), but I suspect nothing will happen until it is far too late.

Not that old chestnut again.

If he really believes that (and that’s a bit ‘if’, IMHO) then the guy is a total loon. I bet he figures he’ll be one of those ‘breeding pairs’ though, ehe?

What is scary is that there are guys out there like this Lovelock…and what is even more scary is there are people who are listening to them…

-XT

Weather extremes can happen. Cold weather is possible during a period of global weather. One of the reasons your summer was cool was because it was relatively hot in the arctic. Massive amounts of arctic air was displaced and it had to go somewhere.

I have no idea if you live in a hurricane prone area or not, but are you really wishing for more hurricanes? Somehow disappointed you didn’t have a hurricane a month during the season? If they arrive and destroy your town, will you suddenly understand what this is all about? Really?

Hurricanes are such a weird thing. The damn storm takes FOREVER to get to you, and then it’s there and not leaving until it feels like it. Who knew fleeing for your life could be so dull? My favorite thing about hurricanes were the street signs: Hurricane Evacuation Route is the top sign. ** Road Subject to Flooding ** beneath that. Best of luck to you.

Of course we did; because the present climate is a better one for us. And in all likelihood it’ll survive the upcoming climate change. But it’s much, much easier to destroy civilization than it is to destroy humanity. And it’s even easier to simply make us miserable.

I don’t know who “they” are but the Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC AR4 Working-Group-1 report issued in 2007 says:

and

So, no, the scientific community has not been projecting an increase in number of tropical cyclones…In fact, there are some projections that the numbers might even decrease, although confidence in that is not very high. And, yes, there are predictions that there will be a future increase in intensity, and some evidence that this has occurred, although in this case the increase in intensity observed is larger than that predicted by the models. (Since AR4, there have been more challenges to the quality of the observational data and it is probably realistic to say that the issue remains unsettled.)

At any rate, I haven’t a clue how you expect to verify or disprove a trend such as this in a 3-year period. That is like saying, “Those folks who talk about their silly seasonal cycle theory say that it is October and should be getting colder here in Rochester but in fact, the high was only 50 F on Friday and today, Monday, it is almost 70 F. So, clearly, they are full of sh-t.”

As for Lovelock, I think GIGObuster presented the best summary of how his views have been received by the scientific community.

So . . . no fruitcake then? Bummer. :frowning:

He’s fairly old. Won’t live to see it happen, so he can relax.

I fully admit that doomsday scenarios appeal to me. This one is scary though.
If you haven’t noticed anything odd in the weather in the past several years, like the early arrival of Spring and some wild storms, well… the weather is fairly stable if you’re living underground.

“The future will be better tomorrow.” --Dan Quayle

:sigh:

That 6C is not expected by many serious researchers. A 4 degree rise is **possible **, but only if no changes or effort are made to control global warming gases. That would be really bad, but it is not the end of the world.

http://www.actoncopenhagen.decc.gov.uk/en/ambition/evidence/

I also suspect not much will happen until bad shit takes place, but that is no excuse to accept all of what an alarmist like Lovelock is saying.