# The Next Al Qaeda Attack? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [January 24, 2009, 7:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-al-qaeda-attack/482778 "2009-01-24T07:45:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-al-qaeda-attack/482778/21 "2009-01-24T21:13:39Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > said Obama was partially to blame for the recent trouble in Gaza. They’ll be after him. I wonder if some white supremacists will assist them to assassinate him. ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-al-qaeda-attack/482778/22 "2009-01-24T21:41:36Z")
> [@Cisco](#): > > Do you believe that for one second? I personally find it beyond arrogant and preposterous to boot. There is no reason they can’t do something bigger with enough time, money, and support - - none of which they’re lacking, or just coordinate a nationwide series of smaller attacks. Imagine Columbine/Virginia Tech times 50. I believe Al Qaeda might pull off something small. But I believe that they as a group are under too much scrutiny from government agencies (I believe our intelligence agents are mostly good at what they do) to pull off an attack on the scale of WTC ever again. And while I’ve considered the series of smaller attacks idea, it doesn’t seem their style. I’d expect that kind of attack more from 24 or an Arnold movie than in real life. ---
**Author:** ![Cisco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@Cisco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cisco)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-al-qaeda-attack/482778/23 "2009-01-24T21:47:16Z")
> [@Justin\_Bailey](#): > > And while I’ve considered the series of smaller attacks idea, it doesn’t seem their style. I’d expect that kind of attack more from 24 or an Arnold movie than in real life. Dude, it happened less than 2 months ago in India. Sure, “only” a hundred-something people died; doesn’t mean they can’t spice it up a notch next time. ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-al-qaeda-attack/482778/24 "2009-01-24T21:47:50Z")
I hope I’m not giving them ideas, but an atomic bomb of any size detonated in any city would be a giant coup. Worry-warts have been talking about this for a long time, and I don’t know who to believe. Still, if almost every country in the world now has a nuclear arsenal, why not some pseudo-governments? ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-al-qaeda-attack/482778/25 "2009-01-24T21:52:27Z")
> [@Cisco](#): > > Dude, it happened less than 2 months ago in India. Sure, “only” a hundred-something people died; doesn’t mean they can’t spice it up a notch next time. But that wasn’t Al Qaeda. That’s what I’m trying to say. Al Qaeda as an organization won’t be able to pull off anything like the WTC ever again. Sadly, I’m sure other organizations that aren’t under that kind of watchful eye, will be able to. ---
**Author:** ![Cisco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@Cisco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cisco)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-al-qaeda-attack/482778/26 "2009-01-24T21:58:25Z")
> [@Justin\_Bailey](#): > > But that wasn’t Al Qaeda. A trifle. I don’t think anybody really knows who or what, exactly, Al Qaeda is, and I accept the term to mean “Islamic terrorist group.” ---
**Author:** ![Wallenstein](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b5a626/32.png) [@Wallenstein](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wallenstein)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-al-qaeda-attack/482778/27 "2009-01-24T21:58:58Z")
Al Qaeda are quite happy blowing up a nightclub with 200 people in it… doesn’t have to be another attack on the scale of 9/11. I’d expect coordinated mall bombings or similar - 5 x 200 people dead is still plenty. **edit** and I’d echo the point that Al Qaeda are not a group like the IRA; it’s more of a franchise system so even if it’s not Osama bin Laden it will still fall under the AQ banner. ---
**Author:** ![BACI](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ce73a5/32.png) [@BACI](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BACI)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-al-qaeda-attack/482778/28 "2009-01-24T22:25:25Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > I hope I’m not giving them ideas, but an atomic bomb of any size detonated in any city would be a giant coup. Worry-warts have been talking about this for a long time, and I don’t know who to believe. > > Still, if almost every country in the world now has a nuclear arsenal, why not some pseudo-governments? IANAE but my understanding about nuclear weapons (even the small ones) is that they are very detectable by remote sensing, and even if the component parts could be smuggled into an urban location, any bomb would be unlikely to escape notice for long… ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-al-qaeda-attack/482778/29 "2009-01-24T22:28:00Z")
> [@BACI](#): > > IANAE but my understanding about nuclear weapons (even the small ones) is that they are very detectable by remote sensing, and even if the component parts could be smuggled into an urban location, any bomb would be unlikely to escape notice for long… For long, sure. How about for short? ---
**Author:** ![Unintentionally\_Blank](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/unintentionally_blank/32/5418_2.png) [@Unintentionally\_Blank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Unintentionally_Blank)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-al-qaeda-attack/482778/30 "2009-01-24T22:28:25Z")
> [@Cisco](#): > > I have absolutely no doubt that we have the best of the best working around the clock to keep us safe, but to think they’re able to cover all possible scenarios at all times is just wishful thinking. A small group of creative, determined terrorists with nothing to lose could still attack us relatively easily. We’re not a micro police state that can know what everybody is doing at all times. I think you’d be surprised. It doesn’t take a police state to track known ‘materials of interest’. There is a small number of things that can be used in an explosive release of energy. Each time something like that happens, the good guys get better at dealing with it. Go buy 5 100 lb bags of Ammonium Nitrate, then let me know if you get a phonecall. 😉 There will be terrorist attacks, they WON’T be 9/11 scale attacks, if only because the _passengers_ of the planes are smarter. Knowing what happened to the other planes in the past, I doubt folks would sheepishly let the terrorists do anything they want. It’s an arms race, and I’ll not deny the possibility of a nuclear or dirty bomb event, but it’s not something you can wander down to the local Costco and pick up…then get anywhere important. ---
**Author:** ![Cisco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@Cisco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cisco)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-al-qaeda-attack/482778/31 "2009-01-24T22:29:08Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > Still, if **almost every country in the world now has a nuclear arsenal** , why not some pseudo-governments? Huh? Is the list much beyond the ~7 or so countries last time I checked a few years ago? ---
**Author:** ![Declan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecae2f/32.png) [@Declan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declan)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-al-qaeda-attack/482778/32 "2009-01-24T23:30:04Z")
> [@Cisco](#): > > Huh? Is the list much beyond the ~7 or so countries last time I checked a few years ago? Well to be fair, a lot more countries have the technical know how to build a device within a certain time frame if they wanted to. Declan ---
**Author:** ![Rigamarole](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/77aa72/32.png) [@Rigamarole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rigamarole)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-al-qaeda-attack/482778/33 "2009-01-24T23:39:19Z")
> [@Declan](#): > > Well to be fair, a lot more countries have the technical know how to build a device within a certain time frame if they wanted to. > > Declan In this day and age I’m sure you could get the plans for a nuke off Wikipedia. ---
**Author:** ![Declan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecae2f/32.png) [@Declan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declan)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-al-qaeda-attack/482778/34 "2009-01-24T23:45:25Z")
> [@Rigamarole](#): > > In this day and age I’m sure you could get the plans for a nuke off Wikipedia. Hah , would you trust it tho. Its not like you can call up level three customer support at los alamos or the sandia labs and ask em. Besides Nukes will be all but obsolete within 50 years , except as engineering devices, ala harbor makers. Declan ---
**Author:** ![Cisco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@Cisco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cisco)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-al-qaeda-attack/482778/35 "2009-01-24T23:50:47Z")
Knowing how is undergrad-level science these days, but actually getting the materials and building one is a very different story. > [@Declan](#): > > Besides Nukes will be all but obsolete within 50 years , except as engineering devices, ala harbor makers. What? The idea was tested and abandoned back in the '60s by the Americans (Project Plowshare) and the Soviets. It turned out to be a dumb idea. What makes you think it will be revisited? And why would nukes as weapons be “obsolete”? ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2009, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-al-qaeda-attack/482778/36 "2009-01-24T23:55:29Z")
> [@Declan](#): > > Besides Nukes will be all but obsolete within 50 years How so? ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2009, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-al-qaeda-attack/482778/37 "2009-01-25T00:06:46Z")
> [@olivesmarch4th](#): > > I believe that Al Qaeda has grown in numbers, but have their capabilities increased? Because if it is true that they are now more calculated and dangerous, why has their not been another attack on U.S. soil since that day? I understand they are hell in the middle east, but why not here also? If is, after all, the United States they are railing against. Because America has been doing what they wanted, better than they could do themselves; hurting itself, helping them, and destroying their enemies ( like Saddam, and secularism, and any movement towards democracy in the ME ). They had no reason to spend limited resources attacking us as long as that was true. Especially when doing so might risk us changing what we were doing. > [@Cisco](#): > > I have no evidence of this whatsoever but I’ve just had a feeling for awhile that it’s Al Qaeda’s wet dream to set off a fission bomb in NYC. There or D.C. I think they’ll come close within the next couple years, but hopefully get caught before anything happens. It’s one thing to dream about it, another to get hold of one. I doubt it’ll happen anytime soon. And before someone brings it up; no, even if Iran builds nukes, the chance of them giving one to Al Qaeda or any other terrorist group is essentially zero. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2009, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-al-qaeda-attack/482778/38 "2009-01-25T00:13:22Z")
Bio, though. Unpleasant possibilities. ---
**Author:** ![Declan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecae2f/32.png) [@Declan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declan)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2009, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-al-qaeda-attack/482778/39 "2009-01-25T00:14:11Z")
> [@Cisco](#): > > Knowing how is undergrad-level science these days, but actually getting the materials and building one is a very different story. > > What? The idea was tested and abandoned back in the '60s by the Americans (Project Plowshare) and the Soviets. It turned out to be a dumb idea. What makes you think it will be revisited? And why would nukes as weapons be “obsolete”? Let me clarify for a moment , archery and black powder muzzle loaders are obsolete, but they can still kill obviously. Now with regards to nuclear weapons the payload on most warheads is around 50 kilotons due to the fact that the accuracy of most of the delivery systems is good enough that you dont need the larger megaton warheads. Conventional weapons may never achieve the same level of destruction of a Nuke, but the trend is going that way, the last project that I was aware of, was non nuclear penatrators that can take out missile silos. We have not used a weapon in anger since 45 , and since then, they have become political rather than military weapons. So other than keeping a certain amount in the inventory , the same as is done for Chem/bio weapons ( if nothing more than seed stock at Ft Detrick) they are effectively obsolete. The current inventory of minuteman/ D5 missiles is aging and while it might be classified , nothing seems to be coming down the pike to replace them. What your going to be left with is swap out warheads for the cruise missile and gravity bombs. Unfortunately due to the lack of heavy lifters and I would imagine a good re-entry shroud, we should have already had orbital kinetic weapons by now. As for the engineering aspect of nukes , I would probably guess that the engineering and excavating aspects of nukes was fine , it was the fallout both physical and politcal that made it a non starter, but I can live with being educated if that was not the case. Space or rather lunar/asteroid mining , if there is anything to mine will be the domain of the engineering device for large scale holes. Declan ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2009, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-al-qaeda-attack/482778/40 "2009-01-25T01:05:50Z")
> [@Cisco](#): > > And why would nukes as weapons be “obsolete”? 2150’s Style Death Ray. Duh. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-al-qaeda-attack/482778.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-al-qaeda-attack/482778.md?page=3)