# The next big automotive scandal? **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [September 18, 2015, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-big-automotive-scandal/731693 "2015-09-18T18:27:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2015, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-big-automotive-scandal/731693/161 "2015-10-09T16:31:23Z")
Before this news broke, if someone had said to me that they believed that some major auto manufacturer was programming their engines to defeat pollution laws by cheating on the emissions tests, I would have thought they were a crazy conspiracy theorist. I would have said that too many people would have to have known about it, and somebody would have talked. Yet here we are. It happened. How? There had to be numerous managers and engineers who knew about this and kept it to themselves, and all of them had to have confidence that none of the others would squeal. How does that happen? ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2015, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-big-automotive-scandal/731693/162 "2015-10-09T16:56:57Z")
> [@Diceman](#): > > Depending on how much they gave up in the union contract negotiations, maybe… > > Seriously, it’s no secret that the “Fiat” half of FCA is losing money. It’s mainly Jeep & Ram keeping the company afloat. Chrysler does OK, but Dodge’s sales are plummeting because FCA is moving it away from mainstream family vehicles and into more of a muscle car niche. (My personal theory is that they’re planning to eventually discontinue Dodge, and make Chrysler their sole US car brand. I also expect that Ram will eventually be put under the Jeep brand.) Everyone knows that Jeep can’t prop up the company forever, which is almost certainly why Sergio is so desperate to merge the company General Motors, or anyone else with money. (This is why you _won’t_ see a FCA/VW merger, at least not until the financial costs of the scandal have become clear. Sergio needs a sugar daddy for his company.) No, they’re not “bankrupt” by any stretch of the imagination. But as you said, they _are_ fundamentally weak. FIAT is hobbling in its traditional markets, Ram and Jeep are propping the entire empire up and that won’t last forever, and they’re pissing away money trying to resurrect a brand here which nobody gives a shit about (Alfa Romeo.) Plus, they have no real advanced propulsion (hybrid/EV) on the roadmap except for a supposed PHEV minivan. Which I’ll believe when I see it. Yes, FCA needs a further tie-up with someone else. GM is not that someone else, regardless of how hard The Great Sergio is macking on Mary Barra. ---
**Author:** ![Jeff\_Lichtman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jeff_lichtman/32/1531_2.png) [@Jeff\_Lichtman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jeff_Lichtman)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2015, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-big-automotive-scandal/731693/163 "2015-10-09T17:19:21Z")
> [@davidm](#): > > We’re supposed to believe that a couple of software engineers decided on their own to do this? . . . This has to be BS. Yeah, it’s BS. Big engineering organizations like the one that designed these cars don’t let engineers slip in unreviewed changes. There’s too much at stake. You could get a car that wouldn’t run on Tuesdays, or whose brakes would fail when traveling at 57 MPH. I’m sure that all the firmware in these cars was seen by many people before the design was finalized. ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2015, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-big-automotive-scandal/731693/164 "2015-10-09T17:27:45Z")
> [@Jeff\_Lichtman](#): > > Yeah, it’s BS. Big engineering organizations like the one that designed these cars don’t let engineers slip in unreviewed changes. There’s too much at stake. You could get a car that wouldn’t run on Tuesdays, or whose brakes would fail when traveling at 57 MPH. I’m sure that all the firmware in these cars was seen by many people before the design was finalized. yep. especially when you have software for things subject to regulation, there almost certainly are weekly/bi-weekly code/design reviews. ---
**Author:** ![Melbourne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5e925/32.png) [@Melbourne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melbourne)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2015, 10:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-big-automotive-scandal/731693/165 "2015-10-10T10:26:51Z")
> [@davidm](#): > > Before this news broke, if someone had said to me that they believed that some major auto manufacturer was programming their engines to defeat pollution laws by cheating on the emissions tests, I would have thought they were a crazy conspiracy theorist. Before this news broke, I didn’t realize that cars had an “emission testing” mode. Once that becomes clear, the rest of it immediately becomes more plausible. As part of that, I would say that they aren’t cheating on their emissions tests: what they are doing is cheating on their non-emissions test mode. Which I think is a significant semantic difference. The idea that it is just two software engineesrs is, of course, BS. There is, and was, a complete company culture dedicated to diesel engines and the idea that emissions testing is spurious. And as noted, car software is considered safety-critical in much the same way space-program or aircraft or medical software is. You don’t just make it up as you go along. ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2015, 11:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-big-automotive-scandal/731693/166 "2015-10-10T11:55:02Z")
> [@](#): > > As part of that, I would say that they aren’t cheating on their emissions tests: what they are doing is cheating on their non-emissions test mode. Which I think is a significant semantic difference. not worth discussing. the cars operated differently during the test than they do on the road. that’s all that matters. “significant semantic differences” are meaningless blather. ---
**Author:** ![Throatwarbler\_Mangrove](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8c91f0/32.png) [@Throatwarbler\_Mangrove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Throatwarbler_Mangrove)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2015, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-big-automotive-scandal/731693/167 "2015-10-10T12:55:18Z")
If these semantic arguments were any use you would think VW AG would have made them, without any help from the peanut gallery, instead of just throwing up their hands and saying all right you got me. ---
**Author:** ![Melbourne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5e925/32.png) [@Melbourne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melbourne)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2015, 12:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-big-automotive-scandal/731693/168 "2015-10-11T12:00:56Z")
I make a distinction between explaining something and excusing it. As do the courts. Semantic and category distinctions are known to explain some aspects of human moral behaviour. ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-big-automotive-scandal/731693/169 "2015-10-14T17:15:42Z")
Well, that was quick. Winfried Vahland, the new head of VW’s US operations [is quitting after less than 3 weeks.](http://www.autonews.com/article/20151014/COPY01/310149973/vws-designated-n-a-chief-vahland-to-leave) I’d love to know what’s going on behind the scenes. ---
**Author:** ![WordMan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e8c25b/32.png) [@WordMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WordMan)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2015, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-big-automotive-scandal/731693/170 "2015-10-15T14:55:52Z")
The NYTimes is reporting that Germany is requiring VW to recall 2.4 million vehicles because VW’s proposed approach to fix them wasn’t sufficient. Hmm, I am ping the mods and ask them to put Volkswagen in the thread title. This thread may be here for a while. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2015, 5:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-big-automotive-scandal/731693/171 "2015-10-16T05:56:44Z")
What if the US EPA declares all the VW diesels to be un-driveable? Would VW have to buy all of these cars back? i see bankruptcy looming… ---
**Author:** ![WordMan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e8c25b/32.png) [@WordMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WordMan)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2015, 11:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-big-automotive-scandal/731693/172 "2015-10-16T11:32:58Z")
NYTimes is now saying that VW is going to recall all European models, or over 8 million cars. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2015, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-big-automotive-scandal/731693/173 "2015-10-16T13:15:20Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > What if the US EPA declares all the VW diesels to be un-driveable? Would VW have to buy all of these cars back? i see bankruptcy looming… VW is _not_ going to be bankrupt. This is not GM or Chrysler. It’s a hugely profitable company. VAG’s profits from last year alone were more than enough to buy back every diesel it sold in the US. At worst, the short-term impact on VW is going to be that it has a few less dollars to spend on R&D and maybe issues a small bond or something. The long term impact is more of a worry. This is obviously going to squelch the company’s relatively well-earned reputation and that will impact global sales for decades. ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2015, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-big-automotive-scandal/731693/174 "2015-10-16T13:45:16Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > What if the US EPA declares all the VW diesels to be un-driveable? Would VW have to buy all of these cars back? i see bankruptcy looming… the EPA has already said they’re not going to mandate that owners park their cars, because the owners aren’t responsible for VW’s non-compliance. they will, however, mandate that the cars have the recall remedy performed once VW makes it available. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2015, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-big-automotive-scandal/731693/175 "2015-10-16T14:06:25Z")
> [@jz78817](#): > > No, they’re not “bankrupt” by any stretch of the imagination. But as you said, they _are_ fundamentally weak. FIAT is hobbling in its traditional markets, Ram and Jeep are propping the entire empire up and that won’t last forever, and they’re pissing away money trying to resurrect a brand here which nobody gives a shit about (Alfa Romeo.) Plus, they have no real advanced propulsion (hybrid/EV) on the roadmap except for a supposed PHEV minivan. Which I’ll believe when I see it. Yes, FCA needs a further tie-up with someone else. GM is not that someone else, regardless of how hard The Great Sergio is macking on Mary Barra. I still think that Marchione is hiding some huge losses-like in Brazil (FIAT do Brazil is down 40% from 5 years ago). And its Italian operations have been unprofitable for decades. it cannot close plants, because of Italian labor laws. ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2015, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-big-automotive-scandal/731693/176 "2015-10-16T14:20:40Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > I still think that Marchione is hiding some huge losses-like in Brazil (FIAT do Brazil is down 40% from 5 years ago). And its Italian operations have been unprofitable for decades. it cannot close plants, because of Italian labor laws. he’s not hiding it very well, it’s widely known in the industry. read Autoextremist sometime. Ram and Jeep are bankrolling almost all of FCA. ---
**Author:** ![Throatwarbler\_Mangrove](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8c91f0/32.png) [@Throatwarbler\_Mangrove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Throatwarbler_Mangrove)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2015, 6:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-big-automotive-scandal/731693/177 "2015-10-17T06:53:28Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > VW is _not_ going to be bankrupt. This is not GM or Chrysler. It’s a hugely profitable company. VAG’s profits from last year alone were more than enough to buy back every diesel it sold in the US. At worst, the short-term impact on VW is going to be that it has a few less dollars to spend on R&D and maybe issues a small bond or something. > > The long term impact is more of a worry. This is obviously going to squelch the company’s relatively well-earned reputation and that will impact global sales for decades. It will be the biggest transfer of wealth from China to the US since the Boxer Rebellion, since 70% of VW’s profits are from its’ Chinese joint ventures. ---
**Author:** ![Balthisar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/balthisar/32/2825_2.png) [@Balthisar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balthisar)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2015, 11:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-big-automotive-scandal/731693/178 "2015-10-18T11:08:53Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > VW is _not_ going to be bankrupt. This is not GM or Chrysler. It’s a hugely profitable company. VAG’s profits from last year alone were more than enough to buy back every diesel it sold in the US. At worst, the short-term impact on VW is going to be that it has a few less dollars to spend on R&D and maybe issues a small bond or something. > > The long term impact is more of a worry. This is obviously going to squelch the company’s relatively well-earned reputation and that will impact global sales for decades. The profits have been paid out. This year’s profits can buy back the US fleet (I’m assuming you’re correct; I’ve not verified this), but we don’t know the global impact. That “small” bond may be huge. We also don’t know if there’s a global drop in sales, now, immediately. This could be a short term impact instead of a long term impact. Cash flow is critical in the auto industry, and huge liabilities versus a low cash flow could definitely spell bankruptcy if no one extends them credit (ahem, queue Niedersachsen government). ---
**Author:** ![WordMan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e8c25b/32.png) [@WordMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WordMan)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2015, 11:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-big-automotive-scandal/731693/179 "2015-10-19T11:34:40Z")
Article in the NYTimes discussing how some owners will not want to get their cars updated because they don’t want to see the power and torque compromised, and feel they have been getting great mileage anyway. ---
**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2015, 12:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-big-automotive-scandal/731693/180 "2015-10-19T12:46:08Z")
> [@WordMan](#): > > Article in the NYTimes discussing how some owners will not want to get their cars updated because they don’t want to see the power and torque compromised, and feel they have been getting great mileage anyway. Will they have a choice? Is that article online? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-big-automotive-scandal/731693.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-next-big-automotive-scandal/731693.md?page=10)